Axios PM: 🇺🇸 America counts: 3 scenarios — Inside the coverage — Don't try this on the road

1 big thing ... America counts: 3 scenarios | Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Facebook   Axios PM By Mike Allen ·Nov 03, 2020 Good evening: Today's PM — edited by Justin Green — is 545 words, a 2-minute read. 🎧 I'll see you all night (and beyond!) on Axios.com ... on 5-min. pop-up editions of the "Axios Today" and "Axios Re:Cap" podcasts ... and in the Axios app (App Store, Google Play Store). 🚨 Situational awareness: 🎖️ Jonathan Swan popped quite a scoop this morning: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley held an off-the-record video call with network anchors this weekend to tamp down speculation about potential military involvement in the election. (Keep reading.) China abruptly pulled the plug on Ant Group's IPO, which was expected to happen Thursday and be the biggest IPO ever. Go deeper.     1 big thing ... America counts: 3 scenarios Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   In my conversations today, both campaigns claimed optimism — leaving room for an "X" factor tonight, even though polls have told a clear story for months. Jen O'Malley Dillon, Joe Biden's campaign manager, said on a press call that he can win 270 electoral votes even without Florida and Pennsylvania: "Florida is a coin toss, without a doubt." (Go deeper.) 💡 Here's a rule of thumb: We'd be likely to know a lot sooner if Biden were winning than we'd know if President Trump somehow threaded the needle. Biden could score a quick series of takeaways in early-reporting states that Trump won in 2016. But if Trump were to win, his map would likely include states — including Pennsylvania — that'll take longer to report. (Details below.) 🔮 With tonight as the potential start of days of suspense, Axios' David Nather and Margaret Talev sketch possible scenarios: 1. The quick win: This one would only happen if Joe Biden scores a convincing win in Florida — or possibly a surprise win in a big state like Texas or a combination of smaller states. (Georgia and North Carolina report quickly.) 2. Election Week: This is the scenario if enough battleground states can't be called tonight — but might be called tomorrow, or possibly at the end of the week. Under this scenario, the historic avalanche of mail ballots could become more important — especially in Pennsylvania, where we might not know the majority of results until at least Friday. 3. Deadlock: This is the nightmare scenario — where it's so close in Pennsylvania or other states that lawsuits could bring everything to a halt. In this scenario, Trump campaign lawyers would likely challenge mail ballots arriving after Election Day and argue they shouldn't be counted, Axios' Jonathan Swan reports. That could go all the way to the Supreme Court — where Trump's allies like their chances, given the court's added conservative tilt following the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett. ⏰ Follow along: Chuck Todd's hour-by-hour guide. P.S. The best advice for tonight ...     2. 🗳️ America votes Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images Terri Ewaschuk votes at Desert Breeze Community Center in Las Vegas. Photo: Eric Miller/Reuters Voters line up at the Trenton Town Hall in Trenton, Wisconsin. Photo: Tracy Glantz/The State via AP Workers prepare paper absentee ballots to be counted at the Richland County Administration Building in Columbia, South Carolina.     A message from Facebook A vote counted is a voice heard     Check your registration status, explore voting options in your state and get access to the latest, official information from election authorities in our Voting Information Center on Facebook and Instagram. Explore the Voting Information Center now     📺 Bonus: America watches The Fox News election-night set has a vast Manhattan backdrop. Via Fox News   Networks added election-law experts to tonight's coverage teams to help explain legal challenges and voting irregularities, AP's David Bauder reports. CNN will be joined by Ben Ginsberg, who represented George W. Bush when the 2000 presidential race was decided in the Supreme Court, and by NYU constitutional law professor Richard Pildes. CBS News hired David Becker, founder of the Center for Election Innovation & Research. NBC News has hired a firm that specializes in election law to provide lawyers who can appear on the air. NBC also has a team, including veteran correspondent Cynthia McFadden, that has been covering election integrity issues.     3. 1 helpful thing: "Folks, don't try this at home" Photo: Wisconsin Department of Transportation via AP A Wisconsin trooper pulled over a driver in northwestern Wisconsin on Sunday after seeing a snowmobile strapped sideways to the top of his Toyota Corolla. The driver, Matthew Schmit of Clayton, told the Minneapolis Star Tribune he had just bought the snowmobile and was driving it to a friend's house to show him. "I know it looks sketchy, but we had it strapped down and shook it," Schmit said. "Up like in this kind of region, stuff like this gets seen all the time, but more like the back roads." The 23-year-old driver was issued a warning about his hauling technique, and he was cited for failing to buckle up.     A message from Facebook Explore Facebook's Voting Information Center     More than 39 million people have visited our Voting Information Center, which makes it easy to check your registration status, explore voting options in your state and prepare to vote safely. Explore the Voting Information Center now     Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 1300, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: