| Good morning. October 17 has such a nice ring to it, doesn't it? October 17th. October seventeenth. Ten one seven. Ten seventeen. One oh one seven. Like poetry. Might name our kid that one day. | | | |  | NASDAQ | 11,671.56 | - 0.36% | |  | S&P | 3,483.91 | + 0.02% | | | | DJIA | 28,606.77 | + 0.40% | | | | GOLD | 1,904.00 | - 0.26% | | | | 10-YR | 0.743% | + 0.60 bps | | | | OIL | 40.75 | - 0.51% | | | *As of market close | - Budget: The budget deficit for the 2020 fiscal year hit $3.1 trillion, more than triple last year's gap and most definitely a record. Government stimulus funds aimed to help people and businesses hurt by the pandemic are behind the shortfall.
- Markets: After Friday's close, the S&P and the Dow have now gone up and to the right for three consecutive weeks; the Nasdaq for four.
| |  Francis Scialabba | U.S. business applications went through the roof last quarter, according to a new report from the Census Bureau. Covidpreneurs filed more than 1.5 million applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) in Q3, a 77.4% increase from Q2. - It's not just a big increase from Q2...it's also a big increase from last year (when there wasn't a pandemic). In late September, business applications passed 3.2 million for 2020. At the same point in 2019, 2.7 million applications had been filed.
In fact, new businesses are being formed at the fastest pace in more than a decade, writes the WSJ. What happened? After tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs in the spring, a big chunk of them decided, "Hey, if Musk can do it, so can I." Because despite what it seems at first glance, a recession is not not a good time to start a business. Consider: - The Fed lowered interest rates to near zero, dropping the cost of borrowing money.
- There are a lot of available smart people who've been let go from their previous jobs.
- With businesses shutting down across the country, it's easier to stand out.
Still, starting a company is extremely difficult when a pandemic isn't stalking the globe. Within five years, more than half of new employee businesses fail, and the chances of failure are even greater during tough economic times. Plus, new business applications aren't a 1:1 measure of new businesses—it just means folks were considering it enough to file an application with the IRS. Bottom line: While the number of business applications filed this year is encouraging, newly formed companies won't come close to replacing those lost during the pandemic. + For more, Business Casual has a great episode on this subject. | |  Francis Scialabba | Yesterday, the Commerce Dept. reported that retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 1.9% in September, a healthy bounce that crushed expectations. That caps off five consecutive months of growth. What drove the increase? Most likely a) the government's $300 supplement to unemployment insurance and b) some people returning to work. Fear of infection on public transit drove consumers to spend on vehicles, while we also dropped cash on credenzas and second offices as part of the WFH revolution. Consider the report an attaboy from the U.S. economy's supervisor...paired with "opportunities for improvement" in categories like clothing and restaurant spending, both of which are still way below last year's levels. Looking ahead...things look iffy; infections are rising, job growth is stagnating, and the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance just reached a two-month high. Not to mention, another round of stimulus from D.C. is appearing about as likely as a Michael Bay Oscar win. | | | Right now, the health sector resembles a gaggle of wizards and witches broom-zooming after two different airborne balls: a Covid-19 treatment (think of it like the Quaffle) and a vaccine (the Snitch). Two treatment possibilities suffered setbacks this week: - Eli Lilly paused the trial of its antibody drug. Experts say that for the kind of trial it was carrying out, the company must have had serious safety concerns to justify hitting the brakes.
- The WHO found that remdesivir, another potential treatment and one that was given to President Trump, has "little or no effect" on patients' chances of survival.
And one potential vaccine provider preached patience: - Yesterday, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said that, even if everything goes Gentleman Jack-smoothly, the company won't be able to request emergency authorization of its vaccine before the third week of November—so at least a month out. Companies have to prove their vaccines' safety (i.e. lack of dangerous side effects) in addition to effectiveness, which takes time.
Bottom line: The most optimistic scenario is an approved vaccine by the end of the year, which would then be distributed in strictly limited quantities. | |  | 0% interest, that is. With this card, you can avoid interest charges for 14 months. Now, we could stop right there and be happy with the information we've given you. Could even be halfway done with our commute from the living room to the other side of the living room. But this card also features one of the highest cash back rates our friends at The Ascent have ever seen. All that cash back means you can get up to $1,148 worth of value from this card that also has no annual fee. So let's recap: no interest for 14 months, no annual fee, up to $1,148 worth of value. Submit an application and get a decision in under two minutes. 0% chance of you not clicking here. | |  Giphy | Coca-Cola is retiring its OG diet cola, Tab, after more than 50 years. If some of you younger readers are thinking, "What's Tab?" that's exactly the point. The drink was popular back in the '70s, but Diet Coke usurped its throne and in 2019 Tab represented a grand total of 0.1% of global diet cola sales. Tab is another of Coke's "zombie" brands. In Q2's earnings call, Coke CEO James Quincey said over half of the company's 400 brands had "little to no scale" and accounted for only 2% of the company's total revenue. So Quincey is going full Shaun of the Dead: - In the first half of 2019, Coke phased out more than 275 products.
- Earlier this year, Coke said it would discontinue other zombie brands: Zico coconut water and smoothie drink Odwalla.
Bottom line: If Coke is making some products feel like Woody in the first Toy Story, it's because Buzz Lightyear is on the way. The company is extra bullish on its sparkling mineral water Topo Chico, and plans to release an alcoholic version next year. | | | Empty sports stadiums have become popular locations for voting in this year's election. Here are some of the sights: Fenway Park—Boston Ben Affleck is 100% hiding in that box. 
Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images Honda Center—Anaheim He's writing in Daffy for City Comptroller. 
David McNew/Getty Images Dodger Stadium—LA The only time Dodgers fans have done anything early. 
Mel Melcon / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images | | - Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey said his company was in the wrong to block the sharing of a NY Post article about Joe Biden earlier this week.
- Europe's top aviation regulator said the Boeing 737 Max is safe to fly again before the end of the year.
- British PM Boris Johnson warned of a "no deal" Brexit with the EU, spooking businesses.
- The Trump administration struck a deal with CVS and Walgreens to eventually provide coronavirus vaccines to people living or working in long-term care facilities.
- Joe Biden's ABC ratings topped President Trump's NBC town hall in a Thursday night duel, early numbers show.
| | | The QSR of the future? It all starts with Flippy, the world's first autonomous robotic kitchen assistant. You can invest in this restaurant revolution that can increase restaurant profit margins by 300%. Invest in the future now.* The certification that makes all the difference. The CMA® (Certified Management Accountant) is the global benchmark for finance and accounting pros working in biz, equipping you with all the skills you'll need to improve your career. Learn more about the CMA certification here.* Weekend Conversation Starters: - Do you have a useless superpower? Like filling a perfect temp bath with one faucet turn, or pouring two evenly full glasses of wine?
- Speaking of baths...what are the best and worst pasta shapes to bathe in? (It's National Pasta Day btw.)
- How much would you pay for a Pokémon card?
What to watch: Here are 22 Netflix originals that are contending for the 2021 Oscars + a list of the Brew Crew's all-time favorite flicks, as seen in The Essentials. *This is sponsored advertising content | | | This food-themed Saturday Headlines is 50% the result of weird food headlines, 50% because of how hungry we are right now. We'll present you with three real news stories and one we made up—can you spot the fake? - "Dunkin' adds a spicy donut for the first time ever"
- "Hershey's edible face masks make their debut ahead of Halloween"
- "Silicon Valley startup launches 'Nespresso machine' for whisky"
- "KFC employee sets internet ablaze with behind-the-scenes food prep video: 'I wish I never saw this'"
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morningbrew.com/daily/r/?kid=8386977e | | SATURDAY HEADLINES ANSWER | | As far as we know, Hershey's hasn't made an edible face mask. | | | Written by Neal Freyman and Eliza Carter Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here. | ADVERTISE // CAREERS // SHOP
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