Monday, October 26, 2020

FX Strategy 26 Oct 2020

 
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FX Strategy 26 Oct 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, EUR and NOK are the top gainers today, up 0.36% and 0.33% versus the dollar while USD and GBP are the top losers. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.036, up 0.5bp. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.281, down -0.2bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.577, down -0.9bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.841, down -2.0bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading stronger today. The Hang Seng was trading at 24918.78, up 0.54%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23516.59, up 0.18%. The Kospi was trading at 2360.81, up 0.24%. In the European equities, indices were trading firm today. The DAX 30 was trading at 12645.75, up 0.82%. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5860.28, up 1.29%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3198.86, up 0.87%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5837.7, up 1.3%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3194.0, up 1.01%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3453.0, up 0.11%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weaker today. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 41.64, down -1.93%. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 39.75, down -2.19%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already seen Japanese Leading Economic Index Final for August (Actual 88.4 v Forecast 88.8) and Turkish Business Confidence (Actual 108.1 v Forecast 102) and Capacity Utilization (Actual 75.4% v Forecast 74.4%) for October plus Spanish PPI YoY for September (Actual -3.3% v Forecast -3%). Looking forward to the morning session, we have German Ifo Expectations (Previous 97.7 v Forecast 97.5) and Current Conditions (Previous 89.2 v Forecast 87.9) for October at 09:00 GMT. The Bundesbank's Monthly Report is released at 11:00 GMT alongside Mexican Economic Activity YoY (Previous -9.8% v Forecast -6.9%) and MoM (Previous 5.7% v Forecast 3.5%) for August. At 11:30 GMT the Brazilian BCB Focus Market Readout is released.

 

Moving into the afternoon session, at 12:30 GMT we have the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Previous 0.79 v Forecast 0.2) for September. At 14:00 GMT, US New Home Sales for September (Previous 1.011M v Forecast 1.01M) is released, followed at 14:30 GMT with US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for October (Previous 13.6 v Forecast 9.5). Later this evening we have South Korean GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q3 (Previous -2.7% v Forecast -1.5%) and QoQ Adv Q3 (Previous -3.2% v Forecast 1.6%).

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1832 for 1.1889
Short-term view: EURUSD support comes in at 1.1832 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1889 enter at 1.1851. Below 1.1832 to open 1.1798

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.3103 for 1.3018
Short-term view: GBPUSD resistance comes in at 1.3103 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 1.3018 enter at 1.3075. Above 1.3103 to open 1.3136

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 105.05 for 104.31
Short-term view: USDJPY MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 105.05 and we see a dip to 104.31 enter at 104.81. Above 105.05 to open 105.21

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 0.7109 for 0.7174
Short-term view: AUDUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 0.7109 and we see a rise to 0.7174 enter at 0.713. Below 0.7109 to open 0.7093

 
 
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