"Why Smart Money is Quietly Loading Up on This Retail Stock" Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance Hey Gang, Yesterday was a wake-up call for anyone who thought markets only go up. The VIX surged 11% while both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 got crushed, finishing near their dead lows. After the incredible run we've had, this kind of pullback was bound to happen. But here's what everyone wants to know – is this just a one-day blip, or are we seeing the start of a larger correction? Look, I'm not in the business of predicting market tops and bottoms. What I can tell you is that my S.A.M AI Scanner just identified one particular setup that could thrive even if the broader market continues to stumble. And when you see the chart I'm about to share with you, you'll understand why I'm so excited about this opportunity. But for this to make sense, we need a market blueprint for the next few weeks. Market Outlook After an incredible post-election run, I'm not surprised to see equities finally stall. To give you a sense of HOW bullish markets have been, here are some quick stats on the 16 sessions for the S&P 500 since November 15th: - Close higher than it opened 11 times
- Closed higher than the prior day's close 12 times
- Gained 4.2% from the low to the high
That's an incredible move, all things considered. Meanwhile, the VIX fell under 15, the lower end of its historical average range of 15-18. Plus, some of the most beaten-up sectors and stocks caught fire. The funny thing is the macroeconomic picture hasn't changed. There is still plenty for investors to worry about. However, given the latest price action, I don't expect we'll see any serious pullbacks until early next year. Now, I want to touch on something you've probably heard discussed before - the Santa Claus rally. Well, it's a myth. Some very smart people have studied it every which way, and they haven't found any evidence to suggest any bullish trends leading into Christmas like there was for Thanksgiving. But, there are certain themes that work well during this time of year, one of them being retail apparel and clothing. These stocks have also happened to lag the broader market. So, a nice catch-up trade can create some serious profit potential. Digging through my S.A.M AI Scanner outputs, there is one stock that's stood out from the rest - Burlington Stores (BURL). Burlington Stores (BURL) Burlington Stores (BURL) has been quietly setting up one of my favorite patterns on its daily chart. After a strong move from its November lows, the stock has formed a perfect symmetrical triangle consolidation near its recent highs. What makes this setup particularly interesting is how the consolidation aligns with my TPS strategy: - TREND: Look at that beautiful upward trend from early November. Each swing high is higher than the last, with price respecting the rising support line perfectly.
- PATTERN: We've got a textbook triangle consolidation forming over the past few weeks, with converging trend lines showing neither bulls nor bears are in complete control - yet.
- SQUEEZE: Notice those small dots at the bottom of the chart? That's my squeeze indicator showing decreased volatility - exactly what we want to see before a potential breakout.
But here's what really caught my S.A.M AI Scanner's attention... Even during yesterday's brutal market selloff, BURL held its ground above key support. That's exactly the kind of relative strength I look for when the broader market is showing weakness. Plus, with holiday shopping in full swing and retail stocks playing catch-up with the broader market, BURL is perfectly positioned to capitalize on both technical and seasonal factors. Trading the Setup Here's my game plan for BURL... I'm looking at late December and early January expiration cycles to give this setup plenty of time to play out through the holiday shopping season. Remember, we're in a mixed market right now. While I expect we'll drift higher into year-end, I want to be smart about position sizing and timing. For me, the key level is $295. A breakout above that resistance line could accelerate quickly, especially if we get broader market participation. |
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