Wednesday, November 13, 2024

How a Levi’s heir beat the San Francisco establishment

Presented by California Resources Corporation: Inside the Golden State political arena
Nov 13, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook Newsletter Header

By Dustin Gardiner and Tyler Katzenberger

Presented by California Resources Corporation

Daniel Lurie waves as he arrives at a news conference in San Francisco, Friday, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

San Francisco Mayor-elect Daniel Lurie surprised many city insiders with his decisive victory over incumbent London Breed. | AP

THE BUZZ: CHANGE AGENT — San Francisco’s political establishment was delivered a rude awakening when Daniel Lurie, a Levi’s heir and first-time candidate, not only won the race for mayor — he wiped the floor in a crowded field.

City Hall staffers and local operatives had written Lurie off last summer, when earlier polling showed incumbent London Breed gaining steam. But he surged in the final two months of the race and beat Breed by 10 percentage points in the ranked-choice election.

Playbook spoke with consultants in Lurie’s orbit, as well as top strategists who supported Breed. Here are three key lessons from Lurie’s win, and what it could mean for future campaigns in the city:

1) Money mattered — just not to voters: It’s impossible to look at the race and not highlight Lurie’s financial edge. He and his immediate family poured about $10 million into the campaign, and he outspent Breed by more than a 3-1 margin. Lurie’s momentum in polling didn’t pick up until early August, when he poured millions into TV ads.

Breed accused Lurie of trying to buy the election, calling his spending “pretty disgusting” in her final election night speech (she has since declined to comment on the subject). Other political insiders said they worry the avalanche of cash has opened the door for billionaire tech candidates to swamp local elections. But for all the hullabaloo about Lurie’s money, it didn’t seem to matter to the majority of voters who wanted new leadership.

2) His change message fractured the moderate coalition: Lurie, a nonprofit founder, performed well across the city. But his largest bastion of support was on San Francisco’s west side, where he dominated in the Sunset and Richmond district — areas with a large and powerful Asian American community. Lurie’s ads tapped into that voting bloc's frustrations over public safety and street conditions due to open-air drug markets and tent encampments. His team also touted the endorsements of dozens of AAPI leaders and tailored its ads for the community and ethnic media outlets.

“Daniel says, ‘As goes the Chinese vote so goes San Francisco,’” said Tyler Law, Lurie’s top consultant.

In winning over Asian American voters, Lurie broke up a moderate coalition that Breed and prior mayors have relied upon. That alliance — known as the “Willie Brown coalition ” after the former mayor — included centrist Democrats and AAPI and Black voters. Breed, a Black woman whom Brown endorsed, won few precincts on the west side and was forced to look to more liberal voters on the east side for support (she did, however, carry a few historically Black neighborhoods).

Dan Newman , a consultant who ran Lurie’s independent expenditure campaign, said his change message spoke to AAPI voters’ discontent. Newman said the IE, which produced most of the pro-Lurie mailers, cast him as a non-ideological problem solver, but without the kind of dystopian rhetoric and imagery that could alienate liberals in other parts of the city.

“You don’t win a ranked choice election by being polarizing,” Newman added.

Todd David , a member of Breed’s inner circle of advisers, said the mayor struggled to cobble together a new coalition. She targeted voters in the city’s pro-housing movement (more on that next), Black and Latino people, the LGBTQ+ community and progressives. But it wasn’t enough to make up for losing API voters, in particular.

“The mayor ended up in second place with an electorate that was really chomping for change,” David said.

3) YIMBY-ism wasn’t his central message: The pro-housing YIMBY (or Yes in My Back Yard) movement has dominated local elections in San Francisco for several cycles. Their chosen candidates, such as state Sen. Scott Wiener and Assemblymember Matt Haney, have run campaigns focused on the need to ease costs by boosting housing production..

Lurie has been receptive to the movement, but influential YIMBY groups supported Breed. Jane Natoli, San Francisco organizing director for YIMBY Action, said while Lurie made promises to streamline new construction, many activists felt there was a lack of specifics. “Lurie navigated this campaign by being ambiguous as much as he could,” she said. “He held up a mirror. That was his campaign, a brilliant strategy really.”

Newman, the consultant on Lurie’s IE, disagreed with the notion that Lurie wasn’t specific about his plans on housing. He noted the group mailed voters giant booklets, outlining his ideas to overhaul the city’s permitting system and more.

But now that Lurie is building his administration, he must balance the demands of powerful interest groups, including homeowners and NIMBY activists who oppose new construction. But, as Law noted, Lurie didn’t depend on anyone else’s money to win the election.

“Daniel can’t be bought and can’t be controlled,” Law said.

GOOD MORNING. Happy Wednesday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook.

You can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook ” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at dgardiner@politico.com and tkatzenberger@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @TylerKatzen.

WHERE’S GAVIN? Returning from his trip to Washington, D.C.

 

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ON THE HILL

Gavin Newsom speaks.

Gov. Gavin Newsom. | Eric Thayer/AP

SPLIT SCREEN — As Gov. Gavin Newsom dashed between meetings yesterday asking the outgoing Biden administration to help “Trump-proof” California, Republicans back in the Golden State whipped out their keyboards and asked the president-elect to “Newsom-proof” California.

The dueling messages are a reminder that while Newsom and Democrats have an iron grip on Sacramento, the state’s GOP minority is weeks away from a seismic shift in Washington that will turn the federal government and its powerful agencies into a sounding board for their gripes.

Newsom, well aware that winter is coming, loaded his plate with meetings Tuesday, including a chat with President Joe Biden. The governor asked Biden officials to approve pending disaster funds, invest in the state’s health care plans and promote clean air initiatives, his office said in a statement. He called it “a great day at the White House” in a video posted to social media.

As we reported yesterday, Trump has threatened to withhold disaster relief funding from the state, and California has several big health programs awaiting federal approval that could hit a major roadblock if Trump gets a say.

State Republicans, meanwhile, sent their wishlists to Washington via X. James Gallagher, the Assembly minority leader, asked federal Republicans to “derail” the state’s plans to expand high speed rail and phase out fossil fuel-burning cars, trucks and trains. Assemblymember Joe Patterson implored Trump to ensure California’s federal dollars are “not wasted on lawyers for lengthy environmental extremist legal challenges” and hold the state accountable on housing and homelessness.

“Just to be clear, I’m not advocating for cutting any of this. I’d actually like California to get more money,” Patterson said in an X post. “But the federal govt ought to demand some level of accountability from our state govt which just lights money on fire on bureaucratic red tape.”

 

The lame duck session could reshape major policies before year's end. Get Inside Congress delivered daily to follow the final sprint of dealmaking on defense funding, AI regulation and disaster aid. Subscribe now.

 
 
ELECTION RESULTS

Rep. David Valadao is seen at the U.S. Capitol.

Rep. David Valadao. | Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/AP

VALDADO STANDS — Republican Rep. David Valadao has won another term representing a swing seat in the Central Valley, delivering the 215th seat to Republicans in the House. His victory was closely followed by an Associated Press race call for Gabe Evans in Colorado, which put the GOP within just two seats of clinching a majority late Tuesday night. Valadao beat back a challenge from Democrat Rudy Salas , a closely-watched rematch of their 2022 race. Valadao was a top target for Democrats, who were hoping an uptick in voter turnout this year could finally clinch the district they’ve been eyeing for several cycles.

ORANGE COUNTY BLUE — Republican Scott Baugh conceded Tuesday night to Democratic state Sen. Dave Min in a heated race to succeed outgoing Rep. Katie Porter, ensuring the toss-up Orange County district remains in the Democratic column. As our colleague Melanie Mason reports, Baugh had narrowly lost the seat two years ago to Porter. Her decision to run for Senate instead of seeking reelection caused significant angst among Democrats, who feared that it would be difficult to hold the seat without her national profile and fundraising prowess.

ANOTHER CALL — Democratic Rep. Mike Levin has defeated Republican challenger Matt Gunderson, the Associated Press projects, in a tight race for a blue-tinted California House seat nestled along the coast between Orange and San Diego counties. Gunderson tacked to the center on abortion in a bid to win over independents, a move Levin attempted to label as disingenuous on the campaign trail.

 

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2026 WATCH

HARRIS FOR GOVERNOR?: Kamala Harris didn't win the presidency, but she has a strong shot at becoming California governor if she were to run, according to a new poll. The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey that's co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times found almost half of voters would be very or somewhat likely to support her if she entered the 2026 field.

That's a big if. While our Chris Cadelago previously reported Harris joked to friends well before she became the presidential nominee that she may return to her home state to run for governor if her party lost the White House, a spokesperson denied the remark (while also saying the vice president would be preparing for second Biden-Harris administration in November). Harris has yet to share what's next.

The poll was the first to test voters' attitudes toward Harris for governor but it was conducted before she lost to Trump. Pollster Mark DiCamillo also didn't put Harris up against other candidates, feeling that was premature. So he asked voters a separate question about their "first and second favorites" from a list of potential and declared candidates. Here's how that beaks down:

  • Rep. Katie Porter (D) at 13 percent
  • Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) at 12 percent
  • Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle (R) at 11 percent
  • Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalaki (D) at 7 percent
  • Former Los Angeles Mayor Antoino Villaraigosa (D) at 7 percent
  • Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra (D) at 7 percent
  • Former Fox News host Steve Hilton (R) at 6 percent
  • Attorney General Rob Bonta (D) at 5 percent
  • Former state controller candidate Lanhee Chen (R) at 5 percent

No opinion? 52 percent.

CLIMATE AND ENERGY

FINAL COUNTDOWN:  The window is closing for the Biden administration to approve a swath of California's pollution rules — and Newsom is feeling the heat. Read more about his last-minute lobbying trip in last night’s California Climate.

 

Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy.

 
 
TOP TALKERS

Elon Musk shouts from the stage at a rally for President-elect Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden in New York.

Billionaire Elon Musk. | Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images

CASH GRINDSET — The election is over, but Elon Musk’s America PAC won’t rest, the tech mogul announced in an X post this week. Musk said his group — which donated more than $200 million to help elect Trump, per the Associated Press — will “keep grinding” and increase Republican voter registration numbers in “key districts around the country” ahead of the 2026 midterms. “Normally, PACs go somewhat dormant after a big election. @America PAC is going to do the opposite,” he wrote.

Speaking of Musk, Trump announced Tuesday that the billionaire will lead the newly created “Department of Government Efficiency” that will spearhead efforts to shrink the federal government. Musk will work with fellow Trump acolyte Vivek Ramaswamy to run DOGE — a winking reference to a joke cryptocurrency.

MONEY, PLEASE! — Persistence pays — quite literally — for political candidates, the Los Angeles Times reports. An LAT analysis found Democratic donor platform ActBlue and Republican platform WinRed both recorded increases in frequent donors from 2020 to 2024, even as the total number of donors fell, thanks in part to a torrent of fundraising emails and texts from candidates. (Los Angeles Times)

EXIT INTERVIEW — Outgoing Rep. Barbara Lee reflected on her political career and Trump’s return to the White House in an interview with The New York Times published yesterday. Lee, long a progressive leader in Congress, said the 2024 election results and her Senate primary loss were a “wake-up call” for progressives. But she added: “As someone who has been in resistance movements before, as someone who wants to see peace and justice in the world, I’m not going to turn my back.”

 

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AROUND THE STATE

— Hollywood executives see room to consolidate under a Trump presidency. Is it a good idea? (Los Angeles Times)

— The U.S. Department of Labor announced more than $800,000 in fines yesterday for six senior care centers in the Sacramento area that the department says failed to pay overtime to dozens of workers. (Sacramento Bee)

— San Francisco’s 2014 “Vision Zero” goal to end traffic deaths within a decade is nowhere near completion. (San Francisco Standard)

PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED: ECONOMY TICKET — Newsom carrying his own bag to the back of the economy cabin on an Alaska Airlines flight from SFO to IAD on Monday.

BIRTHDAYS — Leah BreenRob Arlett … consultant Todd Priest (6-0) … Mark Murray of Californians Against Waste

WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Rebecca Haase to find out how: rhaase@politico.com.

 

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