Wednesday, November 13, 2024

Fear and loathing in IG world

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
Nov 13, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Nahal Toosi and Robbie Gramer

Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally.

President-elect Donald Trump has not explicitly pledged to fire every government inspector general — there are more than 70, and he appointed some during his first term — but he wants to slash what he calls the “deep state,” a phrase that encompasses national security agencies. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

With help from Phelim Kine, Joe Gould, Maggie Miller and Eric Bazail-Eimil

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The last time he was president, DONALD TRUMP went on a weekslong rampage against the government’s inspectors general — breaking with norms by firing several such watchdogs, including Senate-confirmed and acting ones for the Intelligence Community, the Defense Department and the State Department.

Today, many serving inspectors general, or IGs, are bracing for a pink slip by the time Trump takes office. Some are already looking for new jobs, one former official from an IG office told NatSec Daily, explaining: “People are preparing for a massacre.”

Trump has not explicitly pledged to fire every IG — there are more than 70, and he appointed some during his first term. But he wants to slash what he calls the “deep state,” a phrase that encompasses national security agencies. He also has a history of chafing against oversight of his actions by government watchdogs.

A Trump spokesperson didn’t offer specifics about Trump’s IG plans but said the president-elect would “deliver” on his promises. A coordinating body of inspectors general did not respond to requests for comment. Still, if Trump carries out a mass expulsion of IGs, the implications are profound, especially on the national security front:

It shatters what’s left of any precedent. 

Inspectors general are supposed to be independent, nonpartisan actors who investigate alleged government misdeeds. Presidents rarely dismiss them, knowing it would spur backlash — including from Congress, which has, in theory, put in legislative safeguards for IGs.

But Trump’s campaign has pledged to “make every Inspector General's office independent and physically separated from the departments they oversee so they do not become the protectors of the Deep State.” People affiliated with the Trump-aligned Project 2025 initiative also have said he should install his own IGs.

Some IG staffers view all of this as code for a purge, and they don’t expect a GOP-controlled Congress to protect them, given apparent Republican eagerness to please Trump. “Anxious, apprehensive, fearful,” is how one such staffer described the feeling.

It may also feel like déjà vu at places such as the Pentagon, State Department and the intelligence agencies, who saw top IG officials get sidelined in 2020 despite lawmaker protests.

Trump didn’t give clear reasons for all those IG-related ousters. But State Department Inspector General STEVE LINICK was fired as his team was investigating Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO’s use of the department’s resources. Pompeo denied that played a role.

It weakens one of the few mechanisms to hold the Executive Branch accountable. 

Inspectors general take on added importance when the same political party controls the White House and one or both chambers of Congress, because it's less likely that party will launch a congressional probe into the Executive Branch.

But both parties rely on the findings of inspectors general, especially when a lot of taxpayer money is at stake in, say, a war. The U.S. has turned to IGs to watch spending in places such as Iraq and Afghanistan. More recently, several inspectors general offices have been working together to track U.S. aid to Ukraine.

Should Trump fire the existing IGs, their roles will likely be taken over by people on an acting basis. But such individuals have less legislative protection and may feel more pressure to avoid investigations that could damage the president.

It’s also possible Trump could weaponize IG offices. 

One major fear in the IG world is that Trump will appoint fiercely partisan inspectors general who will launch probes to his liking — and that GOP lawmakers will play along. This could lead to potentially skewed and unfair investigations, and it could unnerve federal workers who already worry Trump will target them for work they did under outgoing President JOE BIDEN.

There already are rumors Trump will demand an IG investigation of JACK SMITH, the special counsel who has been pursuing criminal cases against Trump. Those cases include allegations that Trump improperly retained classified documents containing critical national security secrets.

 

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The Inbox

PASS FOR ISRAEL? Disappointed. That’s how one Democratic lawmaker reacted to news that the Biden administration was walking back its threat to restrict military aid to Israel a month ago unless it improved the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza.

“I'm very disappointed at the Biden administration,” Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.), a progressive Democrat who is the youngest Jewish member of Congress, told NatSec Daily. “At this 30-day deadline, we are not seeing increased food assistance into northern Gaza. And they are just continuing the status quo,” she said of the Biden administration.

That deadline was outlined in a letter that Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN sent Israeli officials last month.

The State Department said this week that Israel made some limited progress in increasing the flow of aid into Gaza. “We are not giving Israel a pass,” State Department Deputy Spokesperson VEDANT PATEL told reporters, adding Israel needs to do more. “We want to see the totality of the humanitarian situation improve, and we think some of these steps will allow the conditions for that to continue to progress.”

But the Biden administration’s latest decision not to restrict military assistance drew immediate backlash in the aid world, where many said Israel has for the most part failed to comply with U.S. demands. “Rather than take steps to improve the humanitarian conditions, Israel has actively worsened them over the past 30 days,” KATY CROSBY of the Mercy Corps humanitarian organization said. “And yet, the U.S. has chosen to kick the can even further down the road and avoided holding its ally accountable.”

XI’S GONNA HEAR IT: Biden’s farewell meeting with China’s leader XI JINPING on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in Lima, Peru, on Saturday won’t be all backslaps and smiles.

Biden intends to take Xi to task, again, for both China’s support for Russia’s war on Ukraine and its military activities across the Taiwan Strait, a senior administration official told reporters today, under ground rules requiring anonymity, our own PHELIM KINE reports.

Biden plans to express concerns about ongoing Chinese exports that support Russia’s military-industrial complex. He’ll also assert that North Korea’s deployment of at least 10,000 troops to support Russia’s combat operations against Ukraine threatens “longer-term stability in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific,” the official said.

Biden also plans to warn Xi that China’s daily intrusions into waters and airspace adjacent to Taiwan are “eroding the status quo” in the region, the official added.

ISRAEL LEAK CHARGES: Federal prosecutors have indicted a CIA official on charges that he disclosed classified documents that appeared to show Israeli plans to take military action against Iran. The accused, ASIF RAHMAN, was arrested in Cambodia and brought to federal court in Guam to face charges.

BLINKEN VISITS NATO: Blinken is trying to quietly reassure U.S. allies worried about a Trump upheaval on a trip to the military alliance’s headquarters.

IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, and @JGedeon1

 

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Transition 2024

TRUMP’S TEAM TAKES SHAPE: Trump’s national security team is taking shape. If you’re having trouble keeping up with the whirlwind of announcements, we have you covered.

The newest entries: As NatSec Daily was heading to press, we learned that Trump has tapped TULSI GABBARD, a controversial former House member who defected from the Democratic Party, to serve as his director of national intelligence. He also picked Florida Rep. MATT GAETZ as his nominee for attorney general.

Gabbard is a risky choice that is likely to alarm GOP hawks. Her unusual foreign policy record includes meeting with and at times seeming to defend Syria’s brutal dictator, BASHAR ASSAD. Democrats have accused Gabbard of parroting Russian talking points.

Gaetz is Trump loyalist and a favorite on the right, but he’s also a contentious choice and has faced ethics probes in the House.

Trump also has tapped Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) to be his secretary of State and chosen Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.) to be his national security adviser.

He’s chosen South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM to helm the Department of Homeland Security; JOHN RATCLIFFE to be CIA director; Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) as his nominee to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations; MIKE HUCKABEE as his ambassador to Israel; and STEVEN WITKOFF as his special envoy for the Middle East.

Most of these will require Senate confirmation. That shouldn’t be too hard for most of them, given that the Republicans emerged from this election cycle with a 53-seat majority. Catch up on all the latest transition news from POLITICO here . And if you’re wondering about Trump’s choice of PETE HEGSETH for defense secretary, read on.

Keystrokes

WYDEN’S NOT DONE: A key Senate Democrat who has tried to stop the Biden administration from supporting a controversial United Nations treaty on cybercrime tells our own MAGGIE MILLER that he’ll keep pushing for the U.S. to carefully monitor how the pact is implemented.

Sen. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) and five other Senate Democrats last month sent a letter to the White House and multiple federal agencies urging the administration to withdraw support for the proposed U.N. cybercrime treaty over concerns it might be used by nations such as Russia and China to justify the suppression of digital rights and the surveillance of citizens.

On Monday, the U.S. joined with its allies to allow the treaty to move forward during a meeting of the U.N.‘s Third Committee.

Wyden says he and his colleagues will have more to say soon and that he’s in touch with the Biden team about the next steps. “Now the question is what protections and conditions are going to be added” to ensure the treaty is not abused, Wyden said. “I’m going to fight for as many protections as I can get.”

Biden administration officials have said the U.S. is only cautiously supporting the treaty, in part because doing so means Washington can help shape it during future negotiations, including in a way that respects human rights.

The Complex

PETE WHO? Trump’s pick of Hegseth, an Army veteran and Fox News host, to be his defense secretary left Washington’s defense establishment flummoxed: “Who the f--k is this guy?” one defense lobbyist asked.

Hegseth was influential in pushing Trump during his first term to interfere in the military justice system and pardon U.S. service members convicted of war crimes. He also had his National Guard orders to help protect the 2021 Biden inauguration revoked, allegedly over a Jerusalem cross tattoo on his chest. Some identify that symbol as affiliated with white nationalist groups but he has strongly denied having any sympathies for such groups.

Hegseth’s announcement was met with plaudits from the MAGA world, however. House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON praised his selection as a “great choice.”

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On the Hill

RISCH ON RUBIO: Sen. JIM RISCH, the likely next chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is publicly and privately backing Rubio, the man Trump has chosen as his next secretary of State.

Risch tells our own JOE GOULD that Rubio is thought of highly on the committee and predicted that his confirmation process would go well. The Idaho Republican has praised the Trump nomination on social media.

He also dismissed concerns that China’s sanctions on Rubio may complicate his job. “We’ve all got sanctions against us — not only China. Russia, Iran, you name it,” he said. “It is what it is.”

Risch’s early praise suggested that Rubio was a done deal, even as many on the right saw Rubio as too much of an internationalist and tried to scuttle the nod.

As Trump made the Rubio nomination official this afternoon, the Florida senator earned a statement of praise from Democratic Sen. MARK WARNER of Virginia, who said Rubio “will be a strong voice for American interests around the globe.” Warner and Rubio are the chair and vice chair, respectively, of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Broadsides

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL: Will EU-U.S. ties get worse under Trump? Former European Commission President JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER isn’t holding out much hope.

“I can’t imagine it getting any worse,” he said at an event in Brussels, as our colleagues ŠEJLA AHMATOVIĆ and KETRIN JOCHECOVÁ report. Juncker noted that in the past, presidents have historically been warmer to ties with the EU in their second term. But Trump often breaks the mold.

“Whether that will be the case with Trump is impossible to say. I doubt that he will be inspired by the second life path of his predecessors,” he said.

 

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Transitions

— U.S. Ambassador to Kenya MEG WHITMAN submitted her letter of resignation. The former tech CEO turned diplomat has been praised for fostering deep ties with Kenyan President WILLIAM RUTO.

— Longtime U.S. diplomat JENNIFER GAVITO has joined The Cohen Group as a senior adviser. Gavito has extensive Middle East experience.

JENNY MALLAMO has joined the Brookings Institution as a senior director for communications and public affairs. She was previously at the Council on Foreign Relations.

What to Read

STEVE THOMPSON, The Washington Post: The mysterious Virginia mansion allegedly bought with stolen Nigerian money

GEORGI KANTCHEV and MATTHEW LUXMOORE, The Wall Street Journal: The ‘deathonomics’ powering Russia’s war machine

PAUL HOCKENOS, Foreign Policy: Europe Can Take Over America’s Role in Ukraine

Tomorrow Today

Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: What to expect from Trump 2.0 for Korea?

Wilson Center's Global Europe Program, 10 a.m.: Surviving and thriving: Ukraine's Economy during and after the war

Wilson Center's Mexico Institute, 10 a.m: CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM's security strategy: A path forward

Middle East Institute, 10 a.m.: Rethinking the U.S. response to Iran's levers of destabilizing regional influence."

New America, 12 p.m.: A virtual book discussion on "Illusions of Control: Dilemmas in Managing U.S. Proxy Forces in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria"

Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, 1 p.m.: Meeting the moment: Reflections on the founding of the Kennan Institute in 1974

Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: Readying the Navy's platforms: More players on the field

Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: Spectrum is national security: Meeting America's Spectrum needs

George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 7 p.m.: Displacement, food insecurity, and conflict: The crisis in Sudan

Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who deserves to be investigated by all of the IGs.

Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who will fight to hold editors accountable.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

F-35: Strengthening Our Supply Chain. Securing Our Future.

The F-35 is the most economically significant defense program in U.S. history, contributing approximately $72 billion annually and advances the industry to outpace global competitors by supplying more than 200,000 manufacturing jobs. Learn more.

 
 

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