Thursday, November 14, 2024

APP's Perfect Storm Setup

Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist

"When I see multi-timeframe squeezes stacking up with a triple inside day pattern near the highs, that's when my trader antenna really starts tingling."

Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Nate Bear

After a huge runup in the market over the last few weeks I've become more cautious on adding new positions.

However, I still remain focused on finding A+ setups. And thanks to the S.A.M. AI Scanner, finding them is a breeze.

One of them that has caught my eye is AppLovin (NASDAQ: APP)

This mobile app powerhouse is trading near its 52-week high of $292.86, with a short interest of 9.4%.

The technical setup is aligning perfectly for potential explosive moves, and I love when everything comes together like this.

 

Technical Setup

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1. Squeeze Momentum

A squeeze forms when:

  • Bollinger Bands move inside the Keltner Channels
  • Historical volatility reaches a low point
  • Price action becomes compressed

In APP's case, yesterday we saw squeezes across multiple timeframes (1H down to 5m, including the non-standard 195m, 130m, 78m timeframes) is notable because:

  • Multiple timeframe alignment suggests stronger potential movement
  • The larger timeframes (1H) validate signals from smaller ones (5m)
  • This compression across timeframes often precedes a significant directional move

Think of it like a spring being compressed - the more compressed it becomes, the more powerful the eventual release. The fact that we're seeing this compression simultaneously across different time periods suggests unusually strong setup potential.

2. Triple Inside Day Pattern

The Triple Inside Day pattern we're seeing in APP represents a rare and powerful consolidation setup. Each consecutive day is trading completely within the range of its previous day, creating an increasingly narrow price range.

On the first day, APP established its initial trading range. The second day then traded entirely within that first day's high and low, showing the first sign of compression.

The third day continued this pattern by staying within day two's range, and finally, the fourth day maintained this compression by trading within day three's boundaries.

This pattern is particularly bullish in APP's case because it's forming near the 52-week highs around $292.86.

When this compression occurs near highs, it typically indicates sellers are unable to push the price lower despite the elevated price levels.

This suggests strong underlying buying pressure, as any selling is being absorbed without significant price decline.

The decreasing volume during this compression period further supports the bullish case, as it shows sellers are becoming exhausted.

With 9.4% short interest, any upward break from this tight consolidation could force short sellers to cover their positions, adding fuel to the upward movement.

What makes this setup especially compelling is its location. Forming near highs rather than lows suggests accumulation rather than distribution.

Each inside day essentially creates multiple layers of support below the current price, providing clear risk management levels.

Combined with the multi-timeframe squeezes, this pattern suggests significant upward pressure building beneath the surface, like a coiled spring ready to release.

3. EMA Stack

The daily and weekly EMAs are in perfect alignment, with shorter-term moving averages stacked above longer-term ones, pointing to a strong uptrend.

Price holding above all key moving averages further supports this bullish outlook.

Company Snapshot

AppLovin excels in mobile app monetization and analytics, with a focus on AI-powered advertising optimization. Their Q3 performance showed a 39% revenue growth, strong EBITDA margins, and robust free cash flow.

Catalysts

  • Continued AI integration enhancing ad capabilities
  • Market share growth in mobile advertising
  • Strong momentum in financial performance
  • Technical setup indicating potential breakout

Your Action Plan

I couldn't resist pulling the trigger on two November 22nd $300 calls at $7.50.

Yeah, it's a chunky premium, but when I see stacked squeezes lining up with a triple inside day pattern like this, I've gotta put some chips on the table.

Trust me, these setups don't come around often.

But you know me - I love a good lotto play when the technicals are screaming.

So I also grabbed three of the November 15th $315 calls for $1.25.

I'm keeping it tight with a stop under $0.85 on these bad boys. Sure, it's a spicier play, but when I see compression like this with multiple squeezes stacking up, sometimes you've gotta take a shot.

The risk-reward here is just too juicy to ignore.

Finding high quality setups like this shouldn't take hours.

In fact, you can do it in minutes with the help of the S.A.M AI Scanner.

If you'd like to learn more about how this powerful tool works, click here to find out more.

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