| | | | |  | | By Paul McLeary and Joe Gould | |  Donald Trump arrives to speak aboard the pre-commissioned USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier in Newport News, Virginia, on March 2, 2017. Shipbuilding is “the kind of industry that I think Trump likes,” said one defense shipbuilding industry insider. | Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Eric Bazail-Eimil, Veronika Melkozerova, Phelim Kine and Nahal Toosi Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric What will happen to President JOE BIDEN’s two major defense-industrial manufacturing deals under a Trump administration? Taken together, AUKUS (the effort between the U.S., U.K. and Australia to help the Aussies build their own fleet of nuclear-powered submarines) and ICE (an ambitious icebreaker pact signed Wednesday between the U.S., Finland and Canada) are worth tens of billions of dollars that would create hundreds — maybe thousands — of U.S. jobs in shipbuilding for decades to come. But are they good enough for President-elect DONALD TRUMP to leave alone, or will he want to make them his own and deny Biden the wins? Some in industry are hopeful. Shipbuilding is “the kind of industry that I think Trump likes,” said one defense shipbuilding industry insider, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the still evolving issues surrounding both deals and uncertainty over Trump’s interest. “He seems to have generally been pretty pro-Navy in the past, so I don't foresee any significant changes” even if he wants to get involved in the programs. Former Navy Undersecretary ERIK RAVEN said AUKUS is likely here to stay, but said the Trump team will no doubt want to know how these programs improve the strength of our military and create American manufacturing jobs, “while scrutinizing the cost to the taxpayer.” Military leaders will also need to lay out how these technologies will help our troops, he said. Creating more jobs in U.S. manufacturing has been a core issue that Trump has run on in each of his three campaigns, and will no doubt remain a focus — just as it was for the Biden administration. AUKUS supports jobs in the sub building state Virginia, where House Armed Services Vice Chair ROB WITTMAN (R-Va.), said AUKUS, if anything should be expanded. He wants to see Australian companies certified to supply the U.S. nuclear submarine industrial base. “Let's make it better, let's enable it to happen even faster,” Wittman said. “I think that that's a great opportunity for the [Trump] administration to do those things.” When It comes to the ICE Pact, which was first announced at the NATO summit in Washington in July, the need is pressing. The U.S. currently operates a single, decades-old icebreaker, while Russia has dozens of newer, more advanced ice breaking ships with which it is dominating sea traffic in the Arctic. China is also becoming a player in the high north, alarming the rest of the Arctic nation community. Asked by your anchor if he was concerned about the political change in Washington, Finland’s Minister of Economic Affairs WILLE RYDMAN dismissed any concerns, saying “it's not a political issue or a party issue, but it's it's a common Western challenge since we are challenged by the authoritarian regimes,” like Russia and China who are making inroads in the Arctic. Sen. DAN SULLIVAN (R-Alaska), a supporter of both deals, expressed confidence Thursday that Trump would continue them. It was under Trump’s first term, he noted, that plans were launched to expand America’s icebreaker fleet. “President Trump, you never know what’s going to happen now, but he got the whole icebreaker initiative — that went directly to him,” Sullivan said in an interview. Aside from supporting the ICE Pact as Senate Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee’s top Republican, he is pushing for his state to host U.S. icebreakers, a boon to the local economy.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Constantly evolving to meet emerging threats. In today’s world, you need to spot the threats before they’re seen.
That’s why Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® means pushing the boundaries of defense tech to build a new standard of deterrence and protection. Learn more. | | | | | BEIJING BARKS AT MANILA MISSILE PLAN: Military and diplomatic competition with China is sure to be a centerpiece of the Trump administration’s foreign policy, with China hawks like MARCO RUBIO nominated as Secretary of State and MIKE WALTZ tapped as the president’s national security adviser. So it’s worthwhile to note that the Philippine government’s plans to buy the U.S. Typhon missile system has triggered a fresh salvo of invective from Beijing. That plan is “provocative and dangerous and it is an extremely irresponsible choice,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson LIN JIAN said today. Lin was responding to Philippine Defense Secretary GILBERTO TEODORO ’s assertion earlier this week that Manila was interested in purchasing a missile system with the “capabilities” of the Typhon, per the Financial Times. That follows Beijing’s complaints about the U.S. lending a Typhon system to the Philippines for use in joint exercises with U.S. troops. The missile system spat has fueled a worsening in China-Philippines ties already soured by Beijing’s increasingly aggressive incursions into Manila’s waters in the South China Sea. WHAT’S OUT THERE? The Pentagon’s UFO office dropped its annual report today, but sadly didn’t trot out any aliens for a big reveal during a press conference. Instead, Dr. JON KOSLOSKI, director of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office said most reports of unidentified objects describe orbs, lights and cylinders — many of which are later determined to be birds or aircraft. That said, around 4 percent of incidents were described by pilots and people on the ground as a "green fireball," or "a jelly fish with flashing lights" or a "silver rocket approximately six feet long." The report revealed there were 757 reports of unidentified anomalous phenomena — UAP is the government's term for UFOs — between May 1, 2023 and June 1, 2024. Of those, 485 occurred during that time period, while 272 happened previously but were not included in previous reports. "There are interesting cases that with my physics and engineering background and time in the [intel community], I do not understand, and I don't know anybody else understands them," Kosloski told reporters at the Pentagon. That said, Kosloski quickly added that there is still "no evidence of extraterrestrial beings, activity, or technologies," having visited earth, and that there’s no sense in the building that China or Russia have invented super weapons with leap-ahead technologies. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, and @JGedeon1.
| | | |   | | | | | OLD FRIENDS: MICHAEL ANTON and SEBASTIAN GORKA are in the running to be President-elect Donald Trump’s deputy national security adviser, three people familiar with the competition who were granted anonymity to speak candidly told our own JACK DETSCH, DANIEL LIPPMAN and CONNOR O’BRIEN. Either choice would elevate a firebrand loyalist who served in the incoming commander-in-chief’s first administration to one of the White House’s top roles. Trump’s pick for national security adviser, Rep. Michael Waltz of Florida, was uncontroversial. Anton and Gorka could be a different story as both were known for their sharp elbows in the first Trump administration, with Gorla reveling in insulting reporters and perceived enemies. Anton joined the Trump administration in 2017 as deputy assistant to the president for strategic communications, and has pushed anti-Islamic views and peddled conspiracy theories, penning an essay before the 2020 election saying that billionaire George Soros and the Democratic Party were planning a coup. Gorka, an ally of Steve Bannon who was also named a deputy assistant to Trump in early 2017, has called violence a "fundamental” part of the Islamic faith and once worked as an adviser to Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBAN. He was criticized within the administration for showing up at random meetings and raising unrelated points, POLITICO has reported.
| | | | The lame duck session could reshape major policies before year's end. Get Inside Congress delivered daily to follow the final sprint of dealmaking on defense funding, AI regulation and disaster aid. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | MONEY TALKS: The Biden administration has more money to help Ukraine than originally thought. All reports previously indicated that there was $4.3 billion left in the Presidential Drawdown Authority account, which reimburses the U.S. armed forces for munitions and equipment sent to Ukraine. Turns out, the number is actually $7.1 billion, thanks to some revised accounting the Pentagon has done, DOD officials tell your anchor. That extra $2.8 billion isn’t just found money. The way things work is that the Pentagon calculates how much buying replacement goods for what it sends Ukraine will cost. The number crunchers at the Pentagon ran through the lists and discovered that replacement for some items cost less than anticipated. The plan is for the administration to spend down that whole $7.1 billion by Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, which is a pretty tall order given the cadence of aid packages being announced roughly every two weeks work between $200 million and $500 million. Those numbers are going to have to go way up, but even then deliveries of that equipment would continue well into the Trump administration, which could turn off the spigot at any time.
| | | | THUNE’S UKRAINE TRACK RECORD: Senate Republicans named JOHN THUNE of South Dakota as their next leader, and Ukrainians are breathing sighs of relief. Ukrainian member of parliament YAROSLAV ZHELEZNYAK hailed Thune saying, “he is a follower of the ex-leader of the Republicans, McConnell,” referring to the current Republican Senate leader and strong ally of Kyiv MITCH McCONNELL. “And yes, he voted to support Ukraine.” Thune, currently the No. 2 Senate Republican, defeated JOHN CORNYN of Texas and RICK SCOTT of Florida after two rounds of voting. Thune has been a supporter of Ukraine, voting in favor of the White House’s supplemental aid requests and supporting tougher action against the growing alliances between China, Russia and Iran. Thune’s ascension to the top Republican perch in the Senate will set up an interesting dynamic with the Trump administration and the House, as Senate Republican leadership will likely remain as receptive to additional military aid to Ukraine as they have under McConnell. While Speaker MIKE JOHNSON did successfully shepherd Ukraine aid across the finish line, it is still unclear how the incoming Trump administration will navigate aid to Kyiv as the war enters its third year. PAUL HAS SOME PLANS FOR THE HOMELAND: Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) is set to chair the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee next Congress, and POLITICO’S MAGGIE MILLER obtained a letter he sent to members of the Senate Homeland Security Committee outlining his priorities. In the letter, Paul — who officially accepted the chair position of the Homeland Security panel today — stressed that he wants to cut back on federal spending. “We cannot continue to say yes to every new program and new spending proposal and expect to escape the consequences,” Paul wrote. “We must also ensure every dollar the government spends is being spent properly and wisely.” Big on immigration: In addition to lowering the debt, Paul wrote that he plans to hold a hearing on reinstating the first Trump administration’s Remain in Mexico program, which requires migrants that seek asylum at the Southern U.S. border to stay in Mexico while their case is processed. He also wrote that he would “expeditiously move” President-elect Donald Trump’s nominees through committee, including South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) for secretary of Homeland Security. Paul vowed to continue efforts started alongside current Senate Homeland Security Committee Chair Gary Peters (D-Mich.) to investigate failures at the U.S. Secret Service and to look at biosecurity concerns, along with striving to strengthen the committee’s overall power in Congress. “For at least a decade, the legislative role of most committees has diminished as decision-making power has been concentrated in leadership,” Paul wrote. “Working together we can reverse that trend at least for our committee.”
| | | | Policy change is coming—be the pro who saw it first. Access POLITICO Pro’s Issue Analysis series on what the transition means for agriculture, defense, health care, tech, and more. Strengthen your strategy. | | | | | | | | DEMS DEMAND SANCTIONS ON ISRAELI MINISTERS: Dozens of Democratic lawmakers are urging Biden to impose economic sanctions on two Israeli government ministers due to their ties to the extremist settler movement in the West Bank. In an Oct. 29 letter to Biden made public today, the senators and House members provide reasons that BEZALEL SMOTRICH and ITAMAR BEN-GVIR deserve to face the penalties, which include freezing any U.S. financial assets they may hold. Among other things, they note that Smotrich has tried to damage the Palestinian economy, and that Ben-Gvir has distributed rifles to his supporters, whose ranks include violent settlers who have attacked Palestinians. “The key individuals and entities that are destabilizing the West Bank – thereby also threatening the security of Israel and the broader region, and U.S. national security as well – should be directly held accountable,” the letter states. The missive is spearheaded by Reps. ROSA DeLAURO (D-Conn.) and SEAN CASTEN (D-Ill.) and Sens. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) and DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.), but more than 80 lawmakers have signed on. Spokespersons for the Biden administration did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and lead lawmakers said in a briefing that the White House had not responded to their request. The lawmakers also said that although they realized that President-elect DONALD TRUMP could reverse any sanctions Biden imposes on such figures, they still think it’s important that Biden send a signal that extremist settler activity is unacceptable. Biden has gone further than just about any president in penalizing violent Israeli settlers, and his aides in the past have not ruled out sanctioning members of the Israeli government. But doing so carries risks. It could lead Smotrich and Ben-Gvir to use their official positions to lash out even more against Palestinians. It also could bolster their reputations among extremist settlers, whose views are shaped by ideology and theology more than politics.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: A bigger perspective to the battlespace.
Seeing the whole picture is Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® – innovating defense tech to deliver answers exactly when and where they’re needed most. Learn more. | | | | | — NAHAL TOOSI, POLITICO: Trump Made 3 Big Foreign Policy Mistakes During His First Term. Will He Repeat Them? — MIKE GALLAGHER, WSJ: Pentagon Has Two Years to Prevent World War III — CRAIG SINGLETON, New York Times: Trump Could Win the Contest With China Once and for All
| | — Wilson Center's Mexico Institute and Canada Institute, 9 a.m.: United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement after the election: Key challenges and the path forward — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Countering China and Russia: The hidden advantages of women, peace, and security — Wilson Center's Cold War International History Project, 10 a.m.: Triggering the Cold War: New perspectives on misperceptions and misjudgments. — Henry L. Stimson Center, 10 a.m.: Post U.S. election: Compromise or confrontation with Iran? — George Washington University Institute for Korean Studies, 11 a.m.: A Korea policy forum on "Perspectives on the U.S.-Republic of Korea Alliance after the U.S. Presidential Election — Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: A discussion on "Martyrs of Communism," focusing on how recent arrests in Nicaragua fit into a pattern of repression found in communist countries — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: A book discussion on "Threat Multiplier: Climate, Military Leadership, and the Fight for Global Security." Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is doing her level best to support the journalism-industrial base. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we’d build a dozen shipyards for. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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