WILL NRSC’S BETS PAY OFF? Senate Republicans banked their favorable 2024 map on an unusually involved strategy: aggressively recruiting, endorsing and supporting primary candidates who they thought could win in November. And with Election Day just weeks away, that strategy seems to be paying off. Not everywhere, but at least in races crucial to determining the majority. In West Virginia, Gov. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) is coasting to victory in his state’s open Senate race. And in Montana, entrepreneur Tim Sheehy is consistently leading incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in the polls. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, backed both men in their primaries and fended off challengers, helping assure their nominations. Wins in these two races alone could thrust Republicans into power in the upper chamber, barring less likely Democratic wins in Texas or Florida. In other races where the NRSC made a primary play across the country, the jury’s still out. Veteran Sam Brown is running behind Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen in Nevada polling. In Arizona, conservative Kari Lake is several points behind Democratic nominee Ruben Gallego. Businessman Dave McCormick is still trailing Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.). But in Michigan and Wisconsin — states where the NRSC also backed the now-GOP nominees — polling averages are tight. Wisconsin was just moved to a “toss-up” race by Cook Political Report this week. “Most of our offensive Senate races are toss ups right now,” NRSC communications director Mike Berg wrote in a statement. “Our goal this cycle was to recruit candidates who could win a primary and close the deal in November. We like the roster of candidates we’ve got on the field.” Backstory: Last cycle’s lack of involvement in primaries became a point of contention among Republicans. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), then-chief of the NRSC, did not press one way or another in nominating contests, even against candidates that seemed certain to face general election hurdles. Former President Donald Trump was actively endorsing candidates with more MAGA-friendly stances, creating a class of primary winners that were less than equipped to win over moderates or independents in swing states. In turn, Senate Republicans lost every offensive opportunity they had, and failed to defend a critical seat in Pennsylvania. This cycle, current NRSC Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) decided to revamp that approach. His strategy: publicly endorse and support primary candidates NRSC thought could win both the nominating contests and a general election. And in one case, in Indiana, NRSC also backed Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) to help Republicans there avoid a costly primary, despite Indiana’s solid-red status this cycle. Republicans hope this approach will yield them a majority this cycle. What’s more, success could be a boon for Daines, who has been floated as a dark horse for GOP leadership next term despite the Montana senator not publicly indicating interest in running. Look ahead: As much as we’d like to stay in the moment, the 2026 cycle does begin once Election Day closes this year. And that start will prompt questions on whether Senate Republicans repeat their recruitment tactics again. Their offensive pick-up opportunities next cycle are far more limited, and the map swings in Senate Democrats’ favor. Republicans will have open nominating contests in competitive states like Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire, among others. Potential Senate GOP retirements could add to that list. On the other side: Democrats are staying optimistic about their chances of a majority as November nears. “Senate Republicans’ deeply flawed candidates are hurting their prospects across the entire Senate map,” said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Tommy Garcia, who added that GOP candidates' "baggage" has left Senate Republicans "in the worst possible position in the closing weeks of the campaign.” — Ursula Perano, with an assist from Ally Mutnick GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, Oct. 9, where we learned the Love is Blind filming location is a lie. THE (COALITION) RACE IS ON House Democrats’ hottest leadership election after November might be … the New Democrat Coalition chair contest. We caught up with the two main contenders: Reps. Sharice Davids (D-Kans.) and Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), who currently hold leadership positions in the moderate coalition, to talk about the state of the race and their visions for the bloc next Congress. Elections for the bloc’s chair position, which is limited to one term, aren’t expected until after Election Day when lawmakers return to Washington. Regardless of who controls Congress and wins the White House after next month, the centrist coalition, one of the largest Democratic ideological blocs, is poised to wield lots of influence in the Democratic caucus. Plenty of big policy fights await the new Congress next year, including what Schneider quipped could be the “Tax Super Bowl or Taxmageddon,” or the expiration of Trump-era tax cuts. Schenider and Davids are traveling around the country for candidates and raising money for New Dems, current and future. Both have said they are feeling pretty good about their chances. Davids gave and raised about $300,000 to help every purple-district New Dem and endorsed candidate this cycle, and Schneider raised about $1 million for New Dem candidates and incumbents last quarter. Davids, who flipped a competitive district in 2018, hopes to bring her experiences as a frontliner and as the caucus’ member services vice chair to the table. As one of the first Native American women elected to Congress, she’d also be the first person of color to chair the New Democrats. “I know what our members need to do on the official side to stay in office, and what they need to do on the political side to stay in office. And I will say, Annie Kuster has done just like a phenomenal job of growing the political reach of New Dems. And that's something I absolutely intend to continue to build on,” she told us. “I want to make sure that we're focused on growing the ranks and seeing more Democrats from red states like me,” she added. Schneider, on the other hand, is touting his credentials as a former chair of the bloc’s political arm and his policy chops on committees like Ways and Means and Foreign Affairs. “I've been working hard building support from my colleagues. I feel very good about my prospects, and the first priority is to win my election on Nov. 5, to make sure that we get the majority in the House and make Hakeem Jeffries our speaker, and then my primary attention then will be the New Dem race,” he said. — Nicholas Wu and Daniella Diaz MILTON LOOMS As Hurricane Milton’s effects on Florida become evident, amid continued Helene recovery, storm funding is top of mind for lawmakers. And though it still seems unlikely Congress comes back before the election to address emergency aid, the response is a Hill priority. “What I've heard from leadership and from the administration is that anything that is necessary to make sure that those who are in the path of the storm and in the aftermath of the storm, that we can provide whatever resources is necessary, both through FEMA and through any other vehicles, including the Small Business Administration,” Sen. George Helmy (D-N.J.) said. “So my understanding is, whatever's required to help those victims, the administration stands ready.” Helmy added that Congress will need to ensure FEMA is adequately supported and funded in the coming weeks and months in order to “deal with the outcome of the storms.” More on the storms: Our colleagues across POLITICO have been covering Helene recovery and the preparations for Milton in-depth, including Eleanor Mueller’s look at how Milton may deplete the finances of the government’s chronically indebted flood insurance program, and Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.) saying Wednesday that GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and others who think like her that humans can control the weather need “to have their head examined.” Another lawmaker we saw prepping for the storm: Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.), who flew in and out of the eye of the oncoming storm as an observer on an NOAA mission. On a personal note: We at Inside Congress are keeping Florida in mind as Milton creeps closer to the state. To our readers there, we’re wishing you, your loved ones and your homes safety. — Ursula Perano
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