| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Robbie Gramer | |  A man looks at destroyed buildings hit by Israeli airstrikes in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, on Oct. 7, 2024. Even before Israel launched its “limited ground offensive,” there were multiple threats to Lebanon’s fragile government system. | Hussein Malla/AP | With help from Phelim Kine and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The United States has endorsed Israel’s plans to expand its ground operations in Lebanon to take out Hezbollah’s infrastructure. Yet neither government has outlined what a “day after” plan would look like in Lebanon if and when Israeli operations disarm the Iran-backed militant group. That prospect is alarming veteran Middle East experts and some rank-and-file U.S. officials who say that both Israel and the U.S. must outline some kind of plan on how they would help Lebanon rebuild, if at all. Not thinking through what comes after foreign military operations is a failure Washington experienced repeatedly in its Middle East forays — including Iraq, Syria and Libya — and now experts fear history could repeat itself. “The path there on the political and the military front is very treacherous,” said MAHA YAHYA, a former U.N. official who leads the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Middle East Center. “Once the drums of war are silenced, the reconstruction is also very treacherous.” Yahya warned, “There is no real plan on anyone's radar screen, or at least from what we can see in any of the discussions that we've heard, whether publicly or privately, that there is some sort of a ‘day after.’” The White House National Security Council, the State Department and the Israeli embassy did not respond to requests for comment. If talk of “day-after” plans is giving you déjà vu, you’re not alone. Much ink has been spilled over the last year about the varying post-conflict proposals for the Gaza Strip and the reality that few plans will simultaneously please Israel, the United States and Palestinians in the territory once Israel’s war effort ends. Now, Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU has threatened to inflict the same level of destruction in Lebanon as seen in Gaza if Lebanon does not expel Hezbollah. It’s worth noting that despite the difficulties with planning for a post-conflict Gaza, the U.S. government has explored how it could participate in the stabilization of the territory and allocate institutional resources toward those efforts. And former officials say that Lebanon is different in that a clear objective exists for a “day-after” plan — solving the country’s long-term political paralysis and reducing Hezbollah’s stranglehold over the country’s government. “This is, in a way, very different from Gaza, where the Israelis, the United States, the international community, nobody, has a day after-plan,” said former Assistant Secretary of State DAVID SCHENKER. “You can envision, actually, in Lebanon something different, which is a rebalancing of the politics in Lebanon.” Even before Israel launched its “limited ground offensive,” there were multiple threats to Lebanon’s fragile government system: long-simmering tensions between Lebanon’s Maronite Christian and Sunni and Shia Muslim communities; a political stalemate in Beirut; and widespread economic malaise. Hezbollah has seeped into aspects of Lebanon’s politics in recent years, further destabilizing the country’s shaky political foundations. It’s unclear how Israel’s lightning offensive, which has dealt a crushing blow to Hezbollah’s leadership, will affect the militant group’s future hold over Lebanese politics. But Washington might be viewing this conflict as a chance for a political “tabula rasa” in Beirut. It was reported last week that the U.S. was hoping that Hezbollah’s newfound weakness would allow for the election of a new president to lead the country forward. (The White House did not respond to a request for comment about those reports.) There will need to be some kind of political settlement to ensure Lebanon can rebuild, said Yahya. But there are still many unknowns about how that process could unfold. “Will we get there without bloodshed? And the prospect of civil strife is very much there in this context,” she said. “And then what kind of state rebuilding? Because there is a need to rebuild the state, and that will emanate out of the political settlement. And then how will the reconstruction happen? All of this has not been discussed.”
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Lockheed Martin’s PAC-3® Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) is increasing production to help our partners address evolving threats around the globe. PAC-3 MSE defends in a multi-domain environment as the most advanced air defense missile. Learn more. | | | | | WHITE HOUSE ON TAIWAN WATCH: The White House is warning that Beijing may use Taiwan President LAI CHING-TE’s National Day speech on Thursday as a pretense to ramp up ongoing military intimidation of the self-governing island, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. “Even though we have not seen significant military activity or exercises following previous Oct. 10 speeches, we are prepared that Beijing may choose to use this as a pretext,” said a senior administration official who briefed reporters Wednesday on condition of anonymity. That assessment mirrors the concerns of Taiwanese authorities, Reuters reported Monday. The White House fears a repeat of Beijing’s response to Lai’s inauguration speech in May, which included a dramatic increase in military activity around Taiwan for what Chinese state media called punishment for the island’s “secessionist forces.” That same month, Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI vilified Lai for alleged “disgraceful betrayals of the nation and the ancestors” due to Lai’s history of support for Taiwanese independence. Beijing will likely hinge its response to the wording in Lai’s speech and how he “phrases things,” the administration official said, adding “we see this as a pretext, this is part of [China’s] pressure campaign so I'm not giving credence to this approach.” Beijing’s antipathy toward Lai makes an overreaction to his speech likely regardless of its content. “It's pretty clear that [the Chinese] are willing to blow things out of proportion just to make a political point,” said RAYMOND KUO, director of the Taiwan Policy Initiative at the nonprofit research organization RAND Corp. SCANDINAVIAN PONTIFICATION: Scandinavian officials today offered sharp warnings about the threat posed by Russia and thoughts about how to deter Russian aggression. As our own SEB STARCEVIC reported, Swedish Defense Minister PÅL JONSON said in an interview with a Swedish paper that it “cannot rule out a Russian attack on our country.” Though Russia remains “tied up” in Ukraine, Jonson argued that Moscow has shown it is “willing to take serious military and political risks” and that the risk remains. Meanwhile, former NATO Secretary-General JENS STOLTENBERG admitted that the alliance should have stepped up its support for Ukraine following Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014. He argued that that could have deterred Russia from invading. “If we had delivered a fraction of the weapons we have delivered after 2022, we may have actually prevented the war,” he said in an interview with our own STUART LAU. CONFLICT MINERAL LAWS FALLING SHORT. A U.S. law meant to reduce violence around so-called conflict minerals in the Congo isn’t working, and may actually be having the opposite effect, according to a new government watchdog report. The regulation compels U.S.-traded companies to report on minerals in their products that could be linked to conflicts in the Congo or neighboring countries to the Securities and Exchange Commission. This includes gold, tin, tungsten and tantalum and is linked to prolonged fighting in the Congo that has displaced millions of people in recent years. The Government Accountability Office, or GAO, found that the U.S. regulation “was associated with a spread of violence, particularly around informal, small-scale gold mining sites.” “This may be partly because armed groups have increasingly fought for control of gold mines since gold is more portable and less traceable than the other three minerals,” the GAO said in its report. “Further, GAO found that the number of violent events in the adjoining countries did not change in response to the SEC rule.” Furthermore, GAO found that many of the companies “continued to report being unable to determine their minerals’ origins” in the first place. IT’S WEDNESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | TRUMP-PUTIN WATCH: The Trump campaign denied allegations from renowned journalist Bob Woodward’s forthcoming book that former president DONALD TRUMP sent Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN COVID-19 testing materials during the height of the pandemic. But now, the Kremlin is overriding Trump’s denials, confirming Woodward’s account. Kremlin spokesman DMITRY PESKOV told Bloomberg that Putin received COVID testing equipment from Trump, and sent Trump some from Russia as well. President JOE BIDEN hammered Trump on the reported revelations during a speech in Pennsylvania on Tuesday — a sign this could become a fresh Democratic line of attack on the campaign trail in its final stretch. "What the hell's wrong with this guy?" Biden said. "Did you ever — literally, not a joke — did you ever study, see, think about a president who’s been so unethical as [Trump] has been?" The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for additional comment.
| | | |   | | | | | AI ADMISSIONS: Artificial intelligence juggernaut OpenAI is warning that language-learning models, including its own, are increasingly being used to influence elections. As Reuters’ DEBORAH SOPHIA writes, the startup is warning that cybercriminals are increasingly using AI tools, including ChatGPT, to create and debug malware and generate fake content related to the U.S. and Rwandan elections. None of the activities it detected that attempted to influence global elections drew viral engagement or sustainable audiences, the company emphasized, but it still took action to shutter those accounts. The admission from the artificial intelligence start-up comes as analysts have warned that the budding technology is quickly being co-opted by foreign adversaries to spread disinformation about U.S. politics and influence the November election.
| | RESCHEDULING RAMSTEIN: U.S. allies are delaying a planned meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, a key body in coordinating support for Kyiv, after Hurricane Milton forced Biden to cancel his travel this week. As our own JOSHUA POSANER reports, Ramstein Air Base in Germany sent out a note saying the meeting of the informal group of 50 allies has been postponed. “Announcements about future Ukraine Defense Contact Group meetings will be forthcoming,” the U.S. base said in a message today. Biden was supposed to meet with German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ, French President EMMANUEL MACRON and British Prime Minister KEIR STARMER in Berlin this coming Saturday, while Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY was also expected to present his so-called Victory Plan later in the day.
| | BIPARTISAN BASE BATTLE: Lawmakers from both sides of the aisle are pledging to fight promised efforts by Trump to restore the name of a Confederate general on a prominent army base. As our own JOE GOULD, CONNOR O’BRIEN AND PAUL McLEARY report, prominent Democrats and Republicans on committees that oversee the U.S. military are publicly opposing Trump’s pledge last Friday to rename Fort Liberty in North Carolina after Confederate Gen. Braxton Bragg. The base, originally named after Bragg, was renamed pursuant to the recommendation of a commission created by Congress in 2021. “The law was you had to get rid of the Confederate names, and the commission was to determine what those names should be,” Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), who led legislation to create the renaming panel, said in a brief interview. “The law was passed, it’s not going to go backward.” Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), who serves on the Senate Armed Services Committee and spearheaded the Senate legislation, said in a statement that Trump’s “latest rant is a desperate political stunt meant to distract and divide us. Trump should listen to military leaders who have honored generations of loyal servicemembers by supporting the renaming of these bases.”
| | | STATE SLAMS CHINA’S LONG ARM OF REPRESSION: A top State Department official is warning that China’s use of transnational repression — mainly its efforts to harass and intimidate its critics overseas — is a clear and present danger to U.S. citizens, Phelim reports. At an International Republican Institute event Wednesday, Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor DAFNA RAND said Wednesday that those tactics are “extremely dangerous to the American taxpayer.” She added “This means the United States is fair game for the PRC and others” including Russia, and that Beijing has created a model for other authoritarian countries that “you can go after your dissidents with no accountability and with no problem in Europe, in the United States, in Latin America … [that has] a very real, practical implication for American security.” The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.
| | — Retired Marine Lt. Gen. KARSTEN HECKL has joined government relations firm J.A. Green & Company as executive vice president of defense programs. Heckl was most recently the Marine Corps deputy commandant for combat development and integration and briefly served as acting commandant. — HARRISON MANN, who resigned from the U.S. Army in protest against continued U.S. support for the war in Gaza, has joined the Win Without War progressive foreign policy group as a senior fellow. AFREEN MINAI and SOFIA GUERRA have also joined the organization, as a policy associate and government relations associate respectively, as has SANA MOTORWALA, as a fall 2024 Scoville Fellow.
| | | — CAMILLA POHLE, The Diplomat: Forget China: In the pacific islands, the U.S. is its own worst enemy — MARK HANNAH, MSNBC: Harris’ tough talk is allowing Trump to claim the ‘antiwar’ mantle — CAMERON HUDSON, Center for Strategic and International Studies: What U.S. elections could mean for Africa
| | — United States Institute of Peace, 9 a.m.: Third annual “Dialogue on War Legacies and Peace in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia” — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: The changing nature of counterintelligence threats with National Counterintelligence and Security Center Director MICHAEL CASEY. — Atlantic Council, 11:15 a.m.:The global risks facing the next president with Senate Intelligence Committee Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) — Georgetown University, 12 p.m.: Deciphering Beijing: How to read and report what's going on in China — Arab Center, 12 p.m.: One year after October 7: How have U.S. and EU foreign policies evolved?" — Washington Office on Latin America, 12 p.m.: Responding effectively to the fentanyl overdose crisis: Evidence from the border and beyond — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1 p.m.: Israel and Iran at war? — Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 3:30 p.m: Beijing’s axis of chaos — Wilson Center's Canada Institute and the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, 5:30 p.m.: A book discussion on "The Good Allies: How Canada and the United States Fought Together to Defeat Fascism during the Second World War." Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who uses any pretense to ratchet up tensions with us. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is monitoring cross-editorial tensions closely this week.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3® MSE: World's Most Advanced Air Defense Missile
Lockheed Martin’s PAC-3® Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) is increasing production to help our partners address evolving threats around the globe. PAC-3 MSE defends in a multi-domain environment as the most advanced air defense missile. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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