When All-Time Highs Led to Panic... and Sledgehammers
By -Edward Lance Lorilla
October 09, 202444 minute read
0
In the late '80s, corporate America lived in fear of being swallowed up by "Japan, Inc... " That's what pundits called Japan's post-World War II era of development. It began in 1949...
Editor's note: Today at the Chaikin PowerFeed, we're turning things over to our friend Sean Michael Cummings...
Regular readers are familiar with Sean. He's an analyst over at our corporate affiliate Stansberry Research. And this essay from him just published in yesterday's edition of Stansberry's free DailyWealth e-letter.
In it, Sean explains how a recent round of new highs in a long-struggling international market points to even more upside ahead...
When All-Time Highs Led to Panic... and Sledgehammers
By Sean Michael Cummings, analyst, Stansberry Research
In the late '80s, corporate America lived in fear of being swallowed up by "Japan, Inc..."
That's what pundits called Japan's post-World War II era of development. It began in 1949... when Tokyo created the Ministry of International Trade and Industry ("MITI").
The ministry's goal was to modernize and advance Japan's economy. MITI worked directly with the Bank of Japan to manage trade and guide investment in sectors deemed "strategic."
It worked. For more than 30 years after the war, Japanese government and business moved in lockstep. This threatened the world order and led to an incredible boom in Japanese stocks.
A brutal multidecade bust eventually followed. But now, Japanese stocks have been hitting new highs again. And the current bull market has plenty of room to run...
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As Japan rapidly modernized, the Western world looked on with anxiety...
By the 1970s, investors saw MITI as a challenge to American dominance. And specifically, Americans saw its economic model as having an unfair trade advantage compared with the free market.
In 1985, a feature in New York Times Magazine called Japan's boom "one of history's most brilliant commercial offensives," complaining...
MITI defines strategies; Japanese private enterprise follows through with zest. No better marriage of government planning and private enterprise has ever been seen.
In 1987, the "Japanophobia" grew even more heated. Famously, several U.S. congressmen took to the U.S. Capitol lawn to destroy a Japanese-made radio with sledgehammers in protest of the nation's policies.
Take a look...
This photo may look absurd in hindsight. But at the time, America's economic anxieties seemed pretty darn reasonable.
By 1989, 32 of the world's 50 largest companies were Japanese. And nine of those were Japanese banks – because the nation's asset prices were so bloated.
In a word, it was a bubble... one that couldn't last.
"Japan, Inc." finally peaked on December 29, 1989. The bubble burst. And the Nikkei 225 Index languished... for decades. Take a look...
The Nikkei 225 didn't reclaim its 1989 peak for a generation. Japanese investors know this period of stagnation as the "Lost Decades."
All the fear and media hype about Japan's economic dominance came to nothing. It melted away with one of the biggest financial bubbles in human history. And the damage to stocks didn't heal – until 2024...
The Nikkei 225 hit all-time highs this year. Japan's share prices are riding high again. But here's the thing...
This time, it's a bull market – not a bubble.
A repeat of the Lost Decades isn't in the cards. The investment landscape is just too different today compared with 1989...
For one, the Nikkei 225 is a much leaner index. Only one company in the index is in the top 50 global companies by market cap – Toyota Motor. Again, that's a far cry from the 32 Japanese businesses that dominated the top 50 companies of 1989.
In fact, a large portion of the Nikkei 225 trades for less than book value today...
Book value is a measure of a company's total assets minus its liabilities. It tells us roughly what the company would be worth if it were liquidated tomorrow.
Today, a full 43% of Japanese stocks are trading for less than the value of their assets. So if there's an asset bubble anywhere in the world, it's not in Japan.
In short, Japanese stocks have emerged from the Lost Decades – without circling back into danger. MITI is now long gone. And the market's recent rise to all-time highs is a strong, fundamentals-driven rally.
It has been more than 15 years since the Nikkei 225 found its long-term bottom. Now, it's soaring again. But don't assume the rally is over. This market has plenty of room to run.
Good investing,
Sean Michael Cummings Editor's note: In DailyWealth, Sean and his colleagues regularly share insights like this one today with their readers. But that's not all... They also share ideas on how to safely – and steadily – build a lifetime of wealth.
DailyWealth publishes every weekday that the markets are open. And it's completely free to read – just like the PowerFeed. Learn more about DailyWealth and find out how to sign up to receive it right here.
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.28%
11
14
5
S&P 500
+0.93%
153
273
68
Nasdaq
+1.48%
24
57
19
Small Caps
+0.06%
489
1035
397
Bonds
+0.17%
Information Technology
+1.87%
21
40
4
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Large Cap stocks and Small Cap stocks are Bullish. Major indexes are mixed.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Information Technology
+3.48%
Energy
+1.39%
Financial
+0.62%
Communication
-0.02%
Industrials
-0.02%
Health Care
-0.93%
Discretionary
-1.27%
Materials
-1.76%
Staples
-2.01%
Utilities
-2.39%
Real Estate
-2.45%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Health Care Services
13
39
7
Over the past 6 months, the Health Care Services subsector (XHS) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -7.53%. However, its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #12 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 3 slots over the past week.
Top Stocks
CAH
Cardinal Health, Inc
FLGT
Fulgent Genetics, In
ADUS
Addus HomeCare Corpo
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
PLTR
+6.58%
EW
+6.2%
PANW
+5.09%
CCL
+4.78%
SNPS
+4.63%
Losers
MPC
-7.66%
VLO
-5.31%
SMCI
-5.01%
CE
-4.57%
PSX
-4.45%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
PEP PepsiCo, Inc.
Q3
$2.31
Beat by $0.02
* * * *
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