Wednesday, October 9, 2024

If Lithium Bottoms, This Company is in Play

Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist

"China keeps lowering prices for lithium, which could bottom out the sector."

Karim Rahemtulla, Head Fundamental Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Karim Rahemtulla

Yesterday, Asian markets corrected after a monster two-week rally on the back of China's stimulus measure.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) has been the best major market performer this year, and the latest rally was the steepest in a generation. But as of yesterday, it closed 9.4% lower – its heaviest fall since 2008.

The drop came after China's Economic Planner chairman Zheng Shanjie failed to provide enough detail to inspire traders on the new measures for the country's 5% economic growth plan.

With China's volatility, I'm looking at areas for trade opportunities.

And one sector that stood out to me is lithium.

All lithium stocks began to rally hard after China's stimulus measure a few weeks ago.

This shouldn't come as a surprise. China accounts for two-thirds of the world's lithium chemical output, which is mainly used in battery technologies including electric cars.

Chinese lithium producers are also flooding the global market with the critical metal, which is causing a major price drop as they seek to eliminate competing projects.

If the lithium sector is in fact bottoming out, one stock I'll be watching on a pullback is Albemarle.

Albemarle's is the world's largest producer of lithium, with mines in Australia, Chile and the United States. In 2023 alone, Albemarle produced 39,000 metric tons of lithium worldwide. Its Silver Peak location is also the only producing lithium mine in North America.

 

As you'll see in the chart above, Albemarle has been surging since the Chinese stimulus act announcement and then corrected yesterday following the two-week rally.

If the retest continues, a possible buy on a pullback is in play.

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Action Plan: The recent correction after China's stimulus measure makes the lithium sector intriguing. If Albemarle's price drops 5% to 10% lower, then I'll be looking to buy on the pullback in The War Room.

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