| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | TODAY’S MARQUEE EVENT — VP KAMALA HARRIS’ campaign has made a big deal about her going to places Democrats don’t typically go. Later today, she’ll continue that trend by campaigning in a city famous for its role in the GOP’s founding. Today, Harris will be in Ripon, Wisconsin, where abolitionists in 1854 created what became the Republican Party. Joining her is former Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.). It will be their first event together since the Republican endorsed Harris for president. A senior Harris campaign official tells Playbook the event will center around a country over party message, and that in her remarks, the vice president will make an explicit and direct appeal to Republican and independent voters. Look for Harris to lean into her promises to uphold the rule of law and the Constitution and attack former President DONALD TRUMP for, in her view, doing the opposite. Speaking of which ...
|  If Donald Trump wins the election in November, there’s no chance the federal case will ever see the light of day. | Alex Brandon/AP | THE UNTOLD SECRETS OF JAN. 6 — It looks like we have October Surprise No. 1, courtesy of a man you may have forgotten about: special counsel JACK SMITH. Yesterday, in an unsealed legal filing, Smith gave his most complete look yet at the mountain of evidence he’s amassed against Trump in the case laying out his attempts to overturn the 2020 election. In recent American history, there are probably few moments that have been more scrutinized than the months leading up to Jan. 6, 2021, and yet the filing’s 165 pages were filled with new details and anecdotes. (That’s in part because Smith, unlike other investigators, spent more than a year knocking down Trump’s immunity claims and following lines of inquiry that none of the other investigations were able to.) What did we learn? — From our colleagues Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney: “The filing contains details of private conversations Trump engaged in with Republican legislators and operatives throughout the post-election period in 2020, describing how they nearly all warned him that his allegations of election fraud were flimsy and false,” “Smith also accuses Trump of intentionally stoking the fury of the mob that ransacked the Capitol and assaulted police on Jan. 6, 2021. Once [then-VP MIKE] PENCE refused to join the alleged conspiracy, the special counsel alleges, Trump realized his only option to cling to power was to derail Congress’ certification of the Electoral College results on Jan. 6.” — From WaPo’s Spencer S. Hsu, Josh Dawsey, Tom Jackman and Amy Gardner: “Prosecutors reconstructed behind-the-scenes interactions, including one [on Jan. 6] in which an aide rushed to the dining room to share with Trump, who had been watching the events on TV and tweeting, that action was being taken to ensure the safety of Pence, who was in the Capitol building. ‘The defendant looked at him and said only, “So what?”’ the filing alleges. … “In making the case that Trump’s acts were not done in his capacity as president, and therefore he was not immune, prosecutors argued that the speech Trump delivered at the Ellipse on Jan. 6 was a campaign rally. They noted that it was funded and organized by private individuals, and that Trump promoted it as a rally on his campaign account. Prosecutors also said Trump entered and exited the event to songs such as ‘Y.M.C.A.’ by the Village People instead of the music typically played at a presidential speech, such as ‘Hail to the Chief.’” Related read: ”11 damning details in Jack Smith’s new brief in the Trump election case” Shortly after the filing was unsealed, Trump posted “ELECTION INTERFERENCE” on his Truth Social account. In a statement, Trump spokesperson STEVEN CHEUNG released a longer statement: “[T]he release of the falsehood-ridden, Unconstitutional J6 brief immediately following TIM WALZ’s disastrous debate performance is another obvious attempt by the Harris-Biden regime to undermine American Democracy and interfere in this election.” Cheung also called for the case to be “dismissed entirely, together with ALL of the remaining Democrat hoaxes." What comes next? — The legal angle: If it wasn’t already clear, there’s no way this case is going to trial this year. Trump’s lawyers don’t even want to respond to Smith’s claims in court until late November, Josh reported last night — three weeks after the election. And if Trump wins, well, that’s lights out for Smith. — The political angle: While Trump’s trials were helpful in coalescing the Republican Party around him during the GOP primary, it’s much more complicated for the general election, where both Trump’s legal imbroglios and attempt to overturn the results of a free and fair election are not viewed favorably by the voters who are likely to prove decisive. But much will depend on how the Harris campaign and Democrats actually use what’s in the filing to drive home their points about Trump’s return to the White House. So far, the campaign has been mum. When President JOE BIDEN was at the top of the ticket, he was always extremely careful to not comment on ongoing cases so as not to be credibly accused of putting his finger on the scale. Harris is expected to handle it the same way, aides tell Playbook. While she has repeatedly brought up Trump’s criminal indictments on the campaign trail, it’s exclusively on the 37 counts on which he was actually found guilty in court. We wouldn’t expect that to change in the next month. But, that’s not going to stop other Democrats and Harris surrogates from using the filing as a reminder of the messiness and chaos of the Trump years. Good Thursday morning, and Shana Tova. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.
| | | | A message from USAFacts: Americans deserve clear, trustworthy facts to make up their minds on today’s most pressing issues. In this new series, USAFacts Founder Steve Ballmer walks through the data on immigration, the economy, healthcare, and much more, to help you inform your perspective. Get the numbers, not rhetoric, topic by topic. | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — GIFFORDS PAC, the gun violence prevention and advocacy organization founded by former Rep. GABRIELLE GIFFORDS (D-Ariz.), is kicking off “GIFFORDS Gun Owners for Harris-Walz” today with more than 400 members across 45 states and DC, according to the group. With both Harris and TIM WALZ open about owning guns, the group will work to mobilize fellow gun owners to support the ticket and aims to defang Republican attacks that a Harris presidency would be a threat to Second Amendment rights and create something of a permission structure for gun owners to support Harris. “As a gun owner, I know supporting the Second Amendment and commonsense gun safety policies go hand-in-hand, and so do many gun owners,” former Rep. Giffords tells Playbook in a statement. “Gun violence is the number one killer of children and teens in the United States — and it’s affecting Republicans and Democrats alike.” THAT’S DEBBIE DINGELL’S MUSIC — “Haunted by 2016, some Michigan Democrats worry that Harris remains ill-defined in swing state,” by AP’s Thomas Beaumont and Joey Cappelletti MUSK READ — ELON MUSK’s emergence as a top-level political funder backing Trump this year belied the reality that the polarizing tech mogul has been contributing to conservative causes for far longer than previously known. Musk “quietly gave tens of millions of dollars to groups with ties to Trump aide STEPHEN MILLER and supporters of Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’s presidential bid,” WSJ’s Dana Mattioli, Joe Palazzolo and Khadeeja Safdar report, though they note that Musk’s “track record thus far in backing winners, however, is mixed at best.”
| | | | A message from USAFacts:   Want to know the facts on immigration, taxes and spending? Steve Ballmer, former Microsoft CEO and owner of the LA Clippers, shares facts and data, you make up your mind! | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … Now that Trump, Biden and Harris have each made trips to the region devastated by Helene, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is headed there today, Playbook has learned. He’ll be in the Big Bend town of Steinhatchee, Florida, with GOP Reps. KAT CAMMACK and NEAL DUNN, who will together tour storm-damaged areas and meet with local residents and officials. Johnson said on Fox News yesterday that Congress “will have to address” a potential lack of disaster relief funds. But he suggested damage assessments could take weeks — meaning action can wait until lawmakers return after the election. At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. Biden will travel to Perry, Florida, later in the morning for an aerial tour of areas impacted by Hurricane Helene. In Perry, Biden will receive an operational briefing before traveling to Valdosta, Georgia, to survey more damage-stricken areas. In the afternoon, Biden will deliver remarks before traveling back to the White House. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to Florida. On the trail Harris will travel to Oshkosh, Wisconsin, for a campaign event at 6 p.m. Trump will travel to Saginaw, Michigan, for a rally at 3 p.m.
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Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz greets supporters during a rally at York Exposition Center's UPMC Arena in York, Penn., Oct. 2, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | AFTER-ACTION REPORT — The conventional wisdom following Tuesday night’s debate was that TIM WALZ and JD VANCE had more or less both done fine, with neither walking away with a resounding victory. But under the surface, some Democrats “were alarmed” by Walz’s performance and felt he failed to capitalize on Vance’s weaknesses, Meredith Lee Hill and Mia McCarthy write: “Despite days of debate prep and weeks of delivering savaging critiques of Trump on the campaign trail, they say Walz at times struggled to concisely argue why Harris would be a better president. Some Democrats were deflated after a clearly nervous Walz tripped over his words.” Left unsaid in the post-debate reactions was why Walz “didn’t deploy attack lines he used effectively on the campaign trail, including painting Vance as an out-of-touch ‘venture capitalist’ who has previously complained that ‘childless cat ladies’ are ruling the U.S., or that GOP efforts to dictate what Americans can do in the privacy of their own bedrooms are ‘weird.’” Related reads: “On Child Care, Vance Tests a Talking Point Democrats Also Embrace,” by NYT’s Dana Goldstein … “The First Debate of 2028,” by Ian Ward for POLITICO Magazine … “Vance-Walz was no Super Bowl. More like an NFL playoff game in audience terms,” by Kierra Frazier … “You’re Killing Me, Walz,” by The Atlantic’s Elaine Godfrey RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE CASH DASH — The Trump campaign reported raking in more than $160 million in fundraising in September, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser was first to report. “The haul by the former president's campaign is up from the roughly $130 million that Trump's various fundraising committees brought in during the month of August,” though there is still a long way to go to make up the fundraising gap opened up by the Harris campaign. (Harris has yet to release her September totals.) ON MESSAGE — The Trump-Vance dance on abortion on social media and the debate stage Tuesday night was a sign that the two are now singing from the same hymnal on the issue, with both saying that Trump would veto a national abortion ban. There’s signs that the campaign’s messaging may be working: “Recent polling in several battleground states shows that many who support abortion rights — and plan to vote for state-level protections for the procedure — also plan to cast their vote for Trump despite his self-professed leading role in overturning Roe v. Wade,” Alice Miranda Ollstein writes. Related read: “Melania Trump passionately defends abortion rights in upcoming memoir,” by The Guardian’s Martin Pengelly WHAT BIBI HATH WROUGHT — “Flare-Up in Israel-Iran Conflict Leaves Harris Unable to Avoid the Subject,” by NYT’s Jonathan Weisman: “[W]ith the Israeli right sensing a possible return of Mr. Trump, [Israeli PM BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU has no political incentive to help Ms. Harris.” RACE FOR THE SENATE EYE-POPPERS … In Ohio: Democratic Sen. SHERROD BROWN reported bringing in a whopping $30.6 million in the third quarter, “another record amount for an Ohio candidate,” The Vindicator’s David Skolnick reports. “Not including the third quarter, Brown raised $53 million for this campaign, including $12.8 million in the second quarter. Moreno raised a total of $15.3 million, including $4.4 million in the second quarter.” In Michigan: Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN (D-Mich.) brought in $18 million in her Senate campaign against MIKE ROGERS, The Detroit News’ Melissa Nann Burke reports. That brings her total for the cycle to $42 million, which her campaign said is the most of any Michigan Senate candidate at this point in the election season. POLL POSITION FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A new Democratic poll from House Majority PAC found a tight race for GOP Rep. MONICA DE LA CRUZ in South Texas. She led Democrat MICHELLE VALLEJO, 48 to 45 percent, in a mid-September poll of 400 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.9 percent. This seat got better for Republicans after the 2022 redistricting, but Democrats believe this has the potential to be a sleeper race. National: Harris +3, per The Economist/YouGov. … Michigan: Trump +2 and the Senate race nearly tied, per Trafalgar. … Wisconsin: Harris +4 and Democratic Sen. TAMMY BALDWIN +7, per Marquette Law. Trump +1 and Baldwin +2, per Trafalgar. … Texas: GOP Sen. TED CRUZ +3, per RMG Research. … Colorado: Democratic Rep. YADIRA CARAVEO and Republican GABE EVANS are tied, per Emerson.
| | PLAYBOOK READS | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
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President Joe Biden speaks during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Thursday, July 25, 2024. | Susan Walsh/AP | BIDEN HITS HIS LIMIT — Biden and his top administration aides have urged Israel to avoid direct attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities when it strikes back against Tehran — the latest sign of the limits of the U.S.’ power to prevent all but the most extreme actions by Israel. “After hundreds of Iranian rockets and missiles again rained down on Israel on Tuesday, the Biden administration is settling for limiting Israel’s response rather than discourage it entirely,” Jonathan Lemire and Robbie Gramer report. “The directive illustrates the limits of Biden’s waning influence over events in the Middle East and an acknowledgment that he may be unable to stop what his administration has spent a year trying to prevent: regional war." As for the response: Israeli officials have “yet to make a decision about exactly how to respond,” NYT’s Patrick Kingsley, Eric Schmitt and Ronen Bergman report, noting that “the extent of its reaction will be affected by the level of support — both practical and rhetorical — provided by the United States.” “The exact nature of its response may not become clear until after Rosh Hashana, the Jewish new year holiday, which runs until sundown on Friday, according to the officials, all of whom requested anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.” Related read: “Iran’s Khamenei warned Nasrallah of Israeli plot to kill him, sources say,” by Reuters’ Samia Nakhoul and Laila Bassam More top reads:
ALL POLITICS THE WORM TURNS IN THE BIG APPLE — It hasn’t even been a week since NYC Mayor ERIC ADAMS was indicted on federal bribery and fraud charges, and the fallout is still far from over, as each day new information trickles out and battle lines are drawn. Ankush Khardori takes stock of the situation for POLITICO Magazine: “The optics, as they say, are not good. But as it stands now, the criminal case against Adams is not a sure thing — particularly on the headline-grabbing bribery charge that has predictably garnered the most attention. “There are several reasons for that, but a big one is that over the last 25 years, the Supreme Court has steadily eroded federal public anti-corruption law, and Congress — whose members have been among the principal beneficiaries — has sat idly by. As a result, it would be a mistake to assume that Adams is doomed to a conviction, at least based on what we currently know about the case. To be sure, Adams is still in serious danger, Khardori notes. For instance, just yesterday federal prosecutors told a judge that they “might bring additional charges against him and that charges against other people were likely,” NYT’s Hurubie Meko and Jeffery Mays report. Related reads: “A senior Eric Adams aide declares her innocence — and seemingly her guilt,” by Jeff Coltin … “Next-in-Line for New York Mayor Got Contributions From Donor in Eric Adams Indictment,” by WSJ’s James Fanelli … “New York City Mayor Eric Adams — his own security clearance in question — says NYPD on high alert,” by Joe Anuta
| | | | A message from USAFacts:   USAFacts: Data straight from the source. | | | BEYOND THE BELTWAY
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Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris helps distribute food with the American Red Cross at the Henry Brigham Community Center in Augusta, Ga., Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024. | Carolyn Kaster/AP | HELENE FALLOUT — Biden and Harris surveyed damage caused by Hurricane Helene in separate visits to the Carolinas and Georgia, respectively, as the communities begin the long road to recovery, AP’s Chris Megerian and Colleen Long report. “Both are also seeking to demonstrate a larger commitment and competence in helping devastated communities after Donald Trump’s false claims about their administration’s response.” Said Harris: “We are here for the long haul. There’s a lot of work that’s going to need to happen over the coming days, weeks, and months, and the coordination that we have dedicated ourselves to will be long-lasting to get families, to get residents, to get neighborhoods back up and running.” More from Megan Messerly Related read: “The next disaster: Few in Helene’s wake are insured for flood damage,” by Avery Ellfeldt More top reads:
- Port authority: Harris and Trump are “speaking up for the American workers against the foreign-owned shipping companies that control ports in the U.S.,” Ry Rivard writes. “The fact that major political leaders from both parties are taking aim at the European- and Asian-based shipping companies represents an early political victory for the dockworkers” and the messaging is the “latest sign that both parties see the support of blue-collar workers as crucial to the outcome of November’s elections.”
- Megatrend: “The United States just witnessed its most extreme October heat,” by WaPo’s Ian Livingston
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Cassidy Hutchinson endorsed Kamala Harris. Ivanka Trump helped out with the Hurricane Helene relief effort in North Carolina. OUT AND ABOUT — A bipartisan group of election administrators from across the country convened at the National Press Club for a Partnership for Large Election Jurisdictions panel on 2024 election safety and security yesterday, which was moderated by Carolina Lopez. SPOTTED: Dean Logan, Derek Bowens, Zach Manifold, Joel Hondrop, Ruie Lavoie, Katharine Clark, Kurt Bahr and Amanda Gonzalez. Pic FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger is joining the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia as a Center Scholar for the 2024-25 academic year, where he will teach and mentor students, offer analysis of political events, host student workshops and assist faculty and staff in developing and presenting timely and topical public programming throughout the fall and spring semesters. TRANSITIONS — James Mandolfo is joining Cahill Gordon & Reindel as counsel in the congressional investigations and white collar defense and investigations practices. He most recently was chief counsel of investigations and general counsel for the House Oversight Committee. … Melanie Hart is now senior director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council. She most recently coordinated China/Indo Pacific and emerging technology policy in the Office of the Undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment. … … David Shullman is returning to the intel community where he will serve as the national intelligence officer for China. He most recently was senior director of the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub. … Israel Igualate is now chief speechwriter at the Labor Department. She most recently was deputy director of speechwriting at HHS. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Laura Dillon, senior manager at the Washington Council Ernst & Young, and Eoin Dillon, former VP of policy and partnerships at the Council for a Stronger America, on Saturday welcomed Nora Juliet Dillon, who came in at 7 lbs and 11 oz and joins big brother Emmett. Pic — Lauren Claffey Tomlinson, principal at Cornerstone Public Affairs and a Trump DHS and Saxby Chambliss alum, and Brock Tomlinson, managing principal at Glover Strategic Investments, on Sept. 19 welcomed Brock “Logan” Tomlinson Jr., who joins big sister Kennedy and big brother Henry. Pic … Another pic BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): NYT’s Julie Bloom HAPPY BIRTHDAY: LA Mayor Karen Bass … Rev. Al Sharpton … Rolling Stone’s Asawin Suebsaeng … AP’s Darlene Superville and Verena Dobnik … WaPo’s Maegan Vazquez … POLITICO’s Ursula Perano and Kimberly Leonard … Logan Dobson of Stand With Crypto … Backstory Strategies’ J. Toscano … Jake Braun … Jonathan Lamy of Live Nation … Katie Whelan … Sally Painter of Blue Star Strategies … Joshua Chaffee … former Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.) … Tim Gowa … former Reps. Allyson Schwartz (D-Pa.), Dave Obey (D-Wis.), Sean Duffy (R-Wis.) and Charlie Melançon (D-La.) … Eric Reller … Mark Hamrick ... Eric Wolff … Michael Medved … former Alabama Gov. Bob Riley … Sarah Feinberg … Tusk Strategies’ Bradley Tusk and Cristóbal Alex … Ruben Gonzales of the Peace Corps … Steve Keen of Independent Community Bankers of America … Freddie Mac’s Darren Sharpe … MSNBC’s Yasmin Vossoughian Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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