| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Robbie Gramer | |  Some analysts fear that Morena, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo's party has pushed to consolidate too much power under the president, eroding Mexico’s democratic institutions. | Hector Vivas/Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric If first impressions mean anything, U.S.-Mexico ties are off to a rocky start under new President CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM PARDO. The trouble started with the invite list. Mexico’s new president invited Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN, Venezuelan President NICOLAS MADURO and Cuban President MIGUEL DÍAZ-CANEL to her inauguration, drawing immediate ire from U.S. and European countries (including Ukraine). She also sparked a major row with a key European power after she opted not to invite Spain’s King FELIPE VI to the festivities, arguing he should respond for Spanish atrocities during the conquest of the Americas. And since then, she has vowed to play hardball with the U.S. on issues like migration, trade and the future of bilateral security partnerships. Sheinbaum vowed at her inauguration that she would “always defend the grandeur of Mexico and promote relationships of respect, never of subordination" in her foreign policy. Among those angered by her inauguration invites to Maduro and Putin (neither of whom ultimately attended) is Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “Inviting such international criminals to one’s presidential inauguration is inconsistent with Mexico’s democratic ideals and our shared interest in a secure, prosperous and democratic Western Hemisphere,” he told NatSec Daily. Mexico is not just one of the U.S.’s largest trading partners and a major hub for U.S. investment, it’s also a critical security partner in the fight against illicit criminal networks and drug cartels. Those partnerships struggled under Sheinbaum’s predecessor, the populist ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR, when Mexico faced new waves of cartel violence. And of course, Mexico plays a key role in managing the flow of migration to the U.S.-Mexico border, as the entire region struggles to respond to an increasingly globalized migrant crisis. A former U.S. official, granted anonymity to speak freely about the bilateral relationship, warned that a controversial proposal to house the country’s national guard, the main security force tasked with combating the cartels, under the military would likely require a huge revision in how both the U.S. and Mexico collaborate on bilateral security challenges. Sheinbaum has supported this proposal. Some analysts also fear that Morena, Sheinbaum’s party has pushed to consolidate too much power under the president, eroding Mexico’s democratic institutions. KAREN ANTEBI, a former senior Mexican diplomat, told NatSec Daily that Sheinbaum “takes office with an unprecedented concentration of power.” The Mexican Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment from today's lead NatSec Daily host. The Biden administration is pulling out the stops to ensure that the bilateral relationship doesn't suffer like it did under López Obrador. The White House sent a large delegation helmed by First Lady JILL BIDEN to Sheinbaum's inauguration in Mexico City. And Vice President KAMALA HARRIS spoke with Sheinbaum shortly after her victory in June. “Both sides, but I certainly think the United States, should make a very strong effort to set up a problem-solving relationship with the new government and to build trust, but we're going to have to see how successful that will be,” said former U.S. Ambassador to Mexico EARL ANTHONY WAYNE.
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Lockheed Martin is leveraging advanced commercial technologies, such as artificial intelligence, edge computing and 5G.MIL® connectivity to meet the evolving challenges of a more complex battlespace. Learn more. | | | | | ISRAEL PLOTS ITS NEXT MOVE: Israel is considering striking Iran’s oil facilities as it seeks to hold Iran accountable for Tuesday’s ballistic missile attack. But it’s not imminent. Speaking to reporters today, President JOE BIDEN said that the U.S. and Israel are “in discussions of that” move. On Wednesday, Biden said the U.S. wouldn’t endorse Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. But he also told reporters not to expect a retaliation in the next few hours, saying “there’s nothing that’s going to happen today." Energy markets have shrugged at the potential Israeli counterattack, but as our own BEN LEFEBVRE reports, there are concerns about the impact of such a strike on the global supply of crude oil, especially if Iran blocks the critical Strait of Hormuz as a response. A BREWING LEBANON CRISIS: Around 160,000 people have fled Lebanon into Syria to avoid the escalating conflict between Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees said on Thursday. Israel has stepped up its attacks on Hezbollah, launching limited ground incursions into southern Lebanon and launching a strike on central Beirut — the first time it has struck the area since the Israel-Lebanon war of 2006 — as tensions mount in the region. The offensive comes as Israel seeks to take advantage of its lightning offensive against Hezbollah this past weekend. It has also fueled a new humanitarian crisis even as the international aid world struggles to grapple with the ongoing crisis in Gaza. World Health Organization Director General TEDROS ADHANOM GHEBREYESUS said at least 28 health workers had been killed in Lebanon in the past 24 hours as Israel stepped up its offensive. The fallout from the renewed fighting in Lebanon is expected to ramp up international pressure on the Biden administration to defuse the crisis and push Israel to back down. Israel, however, has given no indications it will wind down its operations in Lebanon yet. RUTTE SUPPORTS DEEP STRIKES: NATO’s new boss is supporting lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of donated weapons against targets in Russian territory. As our own STUART LAU reports, NATO Secretary-General MARK RUTTE made his comments during a surprise visit to Kyiv just days after taking the helm of the transatlantic alliance. IT’S THURSDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | | |   | | | | | NATSEC AD BUY: Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’s campaign is “going on offense on national security issues” with a new election advertising campaign, a campaign official told NatSec Daily. The campaign features clips from former top Trump administration officials, including former Defense Secretary MARK ESPER and national security adviser JOHN BOLTON warning that Trump can’t be trusted to be president again. The multi-million dollar ad campaign is aimed at appealing to on-the-fence voters worried about America’s future role in the world, part of a broader strategy the Harris team is implementing to center the current administration’s response to the war in Ukraine as a pitch to some swing state voters. (A campaign spokesperson did not give further details on the cost of the ad buy.) “The goal of the campaign is to have voters ask who they would want by the red phone in times of crisis: Kamala Harris, who has been a trusted, steady leader in the administration on the world stage, or Donald Trump, whose own advisors wouldn't trust him in the job?” the campaign aide said. (The aide was granted anonymity as they weren’t authorized to speak on the matter publicly.) That pitch may be an uphill battle for the Dems. The Institute for Global Affairs conducted a poll that found 58 percent of potential voters in swing states believe Trump is more likely to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, compared with the 42 percent who say Harris would. The Trump campaign did not respond to an immediate request for comment. COUNTERATTACK: The war of open letters continues. A group of more than 300 conservative national security experts signed an open letter endorsing Trump for president, calling Trump a “peacemaker” and saying that the Biden-Harris administration’s policies have “imperiled our national security,” as NBC News’s JONATHAN ALLEN and CAROL LEE report. Trump’s former national security adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN and ALEX GRAY, former Trump National Security Council chief of staff, organized the letter. It’s a direct response to a letter issued today by 700 former national security officials, including many Republicans, endorsing Harris for president. “The narrative in Washington that top notch national security professionals won’t support and serve President Trump is baseless,” Gray told our own DANIEL LIPPMAN.
| | TARGETING RUSSIAN CYBERSPIES: The Justice Department and Microsoft announced on Thursday they seized more than 100 domains that Russian-backed hacking groups used to target civil society and pro-democracy organizations, as Cyberscoop’s AJ VICENS reports. The domains were seized from a hacking group known as Star Blizzard that the U.S. and other Western governments believe to be a front for Russia’s federal security services, or FSB. “Star Blizzard is persistent,” STEVEN MASADA, assistant general counsel of Microsoft’s Digital Crimes Unit, said in a statement announcing the news. “Their victims, often unaware of the malicious intent, unknowingly engage with these messages leading to the compromise of their credentials. These attacks strain resources, hamper operations and stoke fear in victims — all hindering democratic participation.” Our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS reports (for Pros!) that the coordinated action comes as the U.S. seeks to hobble an elite offensive cyber team inside Russia’s chief intelligence agency, the FSB, as concerns about Kremlin influence operations ahead of the Nov. 5 elections run high.
| | PRESSURE ON SUDAN: A bipartisan group of senators unveiled new legislation on Sudan aimed at having the U.S. government help document war crimes in the East African country and holding potential war criminals to account. Sens. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.) and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) introduced the bill. It is also co-sponsored by Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.). Sudan’s civil war has devastated the country, turning it into the world’s worst humanitarian crisis — fanned by foreign powers arming different sides of the conflict. This includes Egypt, Russia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. “The United States and the international community cannot ignore this situation, nor can we stand silent as external actors fuel the conflict,” Young said in a statement. AZERBAIJAN ACCOUNTABILITY: Democratic lawmakers are pushing for the State Department to hold Azerbaijan accountable for alleged human rights abuses ahead of the COP29 summit in the Caucasus country’s capital of Baku later this year. In a letter to Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, the lawmakers, led by Sen. ED MARKEY (D-Mass.) and Rep. FRANK PALLONE (D-N.J.) wrote that “despite overwhelming evidence and international condemnation, Azerbaijan has not faced meaningful consequences for the ethnic cleansing and other actions.” They argue that State should press for the release of all remaining prisoners of war related to recent conflicts between Azerbaijan and Armenia over disputed territory to “enable a more conducive environment for successful diplomacy” at the climate summit.
| | | | QIN GANG GONE AGAIN: The efforts from Beijing to erase all traces of disgraced former Chinese Foreign Minister QIN GANG are going deep. As our own PHELIM KINE writes in today’s China Watcher newsletter, Chinese officials have gone as far as to remove a portrait of Gang, who previously served as Beijing’s ambassador to Washington, from the walls of China’s D.C. embassy. Gang, an ally of Chinese leader XI JINPING who rose meteorically in Chinese politics to one of the top posts in the Chinese government, disappeared suddenly last year amid rumors that he had had an extramarital affair with a journalist. It is still unclear what happened to Gang, who was replaced by veteran diplomat WANG YI. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — AVOIDING IRAN WAR: A coalition of 81 national and local advocacy groups is urging Biden to prevent the outbreak of a war between Iran and Israel that would ensnare the United States. In a letter shared first with NatSec Daily, the groups argue that the U.S. should consider consider all options, including “withholding offensive weapons transfers to Israel’s military,” as it seeks “to move all the parties back from the brink and toward a ceasefire that ends the devastation of Gaza and Lebanon and reverses the slide to regional war.” Among the signatories are the Quincy Institute think tank, the National Iranian American Council and pro-Palestinian group IfNotNow.
| | — MELANIE HART is now senior director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council, our colleague Daniel Lippman has learned. She most recently coordinated China/Indo Pacific and emerging technology policy in the Office of the Undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment. — NATE EVANS is now senior communications adviser for the Office of Vice President Harris. He most recently was principal senior adviser for strategy and communications for the U.S. Mission to the United Nations. — SANJEEV BHASKER is now deputy general counsel for the Office of the National Cyber Director at the White House. Bhasker most recently was U.S. digital currency counsel for the money laundering and asset recovery section of the Department of Justice. — NGOR LUONG has joined the State Department as the Center for Security and Emerging Technology Fellow to work on tech and China policy in the Office of the Chief Economist. She most recently was senior research analyst at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub.
| | — LISELOTTE ODGAARD, POLITICO: Russia and China’s cooperation in the Arctic is a rising nuclear threat — JU HYUNG KIM, War on the Rocks: What would be Japan’s role in a new Korean war? — KEITH JOHNSON, Foreign Policy: The U.N. resolution at the heart of the Israel-Lebanon conflict
| | — George Washington University's Program on New Approaches to Research and Security in Eurasia, 9 a.m.: Annual Eurasia policy conference, focusing on Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine — Wilson Center's Middle East Program, 10 a.m.: Book discussion on “The Melting Point: High Command and War in the 21st Century” — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Discussion on the UN Cybercrime Convention — Brookings Institution, 11 a.m.: The United States and China in Latin America: Rivalry, cooperation, or something in-between? — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: China's stimulus package: Will it work? — Atlantic Council, 11:30 a.m.: The Berlin Process Summit 10 years on: Lessons learned and next steps for the Western Balkan Six (WB6) — Center for a New American Security, 4 p.m.: Upcoming elections in Moldova and Georgia Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who won’t be invited to our inauguration. Thanks to our producer, Greg Svirnovskiy, who will swear us into the office.
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