| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | |  “We’re in discussion of that,” President Joe Biden said about Israel striking Iranian oil targets. | Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — As Israel signals that it might be ramping up its invasion of Lebanon, President JOE BIDEN today didn’t discount the possibility that Israel could retaliate against Iran by hitting its oil facilities — possibly drawing the region closer to all-out war. “We’re in discussion of that,” Biden said in response to a question about whether he’d support striking those targets. Bloomberg’s Antonia Mufarech and Devika Krishna Kumar report that oil markets surged on the prospect that Iran’s oil production could be damaged, as the world waits to see how — and to what degree of escalation — Israel responds to Iran’s hail of missiles this week. But Ben Lefebvre reports that a hit to Iranian oil could affect global prices less than it once would have, since diversified oil production (including in the U.S.) has made Iran less essential in recent years. The bigger picture is that, as the anniversary of Hamas’ attack on Israel approaches, Biden’s administration has struggled time and again to rein in the Middle East’s conflagrations, WaPo’s Karen DeYoung and Missy Ryan report in a lengthy look at how the past year has unfolded. In his drive to steer the region toward peace, “Biden was undermined at every turn” by Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and militant groups that would not back down. With 40,000 Palestinians dead, no cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war and a wider conflict looking “all but inevitable,” they write, this year has “exposed, not for the first time, the inability of a great power to bend either recalcitrant allies or smaller adversaries to its will.” DEMOCRACY WATCH — Are warnings about DONALD TRUMP politicizing law enforcement overblown or on the mark? In the NYT Magazine, Emily Bazelon and Mattathias Schwartz have a big survey of 50 legal experts (half Democrats, half Republicans), including former AGs, White House counsels and U.S. attorneys. And roughly four-fifths of them warned that they’re “alarmed about Trump’s potential impact on the Justice Department, many to a degree that they don’t think the public conversation reflects.” Trump campaign spokesman STEVEN CHEUNG didn’t respond directly to the concerns, but called the article “propaganda falsely accusing President Trump of doing what the Democrats are doing to him — carrying out illegal weaponized lawfare.” (There is no evidence that federal probes of Trump came from Biden.) On the campaign trail, Trump has taken to calling just about everything “election interference” without evidence, from the Secret Service to his federal election subversion case, NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard reports from Milwaukee. It’s part of a pattern of preemptively claiming that the election won’t be a fair one. Also part of that pattern, critics say, are GOP efforts to elevate concerns about non-citizen voting, and Reuters’ David Morgan reports on how eight states (including swing states North Carolina and Wisconsin) will ask voters this year to decide whether to add language to state constitutions explicitly banning the practice, which is already illegal in federal elections. Meanwhile, as threats to election officials proliferate around the country, the Justice Department says it can’t do much to prosecute the offenders, which is more up to local law enforcement, WaPo’s David Nakamura and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez report. In August, swatting attempts targeted multiple secretaries of state, the Post reveals. DOGHOUSE OR PENTHOUSE? — The N.Y. Post’s Diana Glebova reports on a Trump-world dustup over how much to distance themselves from the Heritage Foundation as Democrats make their now-defunct Project 2025 into a powerful boogeyman. Trump transition leader HOWARD LUTNICK told her Tuesday that Heritage is now “radioactive” and its influence on choosing administration appointees would be “none, zero.” But other Republicans refuted that, saying there’d be no way to staff up without Project 2025’s huge database of potential GOP hires. FOR YOUR RADAR — Second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF today outright denied the Daily Mail’s reporting that he’d slapped an ex-girlfriend in 2012, Semafor’s Max Tani scooped. Emhoff’s spokesperson said in a statement that “this report is untrue,” and “any suggestion that he would or has ever hit a woman is false.” Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
| | | | A message from USAFacts: Want to know the facts on immigration, taxes and spending? Steve Ballmer, former Microsoft CEO and owner of the LA Clippers, shares facts and data, you make up your mind! | | | | | 8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is spending $10 million on a new round of TV ads. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO | 1. GOP RAYS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE: RMG Research finds Trump ahead by 2 points in Florida and GOP Sen. RICK SCOTT with a 5-point advantage. Scott is now putting down $10 million for a wave of TV ads across the state, NBC’s Matt Dixon scooped, as he works to stave off an underdog challenge from Democrat DEBBIE MUCARSEL-POWELL. As one of the wealthiest politicians in America, he has plenty of cash to spare. 2. 2025 DREAMING: Rep. JIM JORDAN (R-Ohio) is making moves to lay the groundwork for a bid to lead House Republicans next year, if the party is in the minority or Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is ousted, WaPo’s Marianna Sotomayor and Leigh Ann Caldwell report. Jordan has given $1.7 million to the NRCC and helped out an ideologically diverse range of colleagues, working to shore up his standing with moderates. It’s a surprising break from the earlier days of Jordan’s congressional career, when the ultraconservative lawmaker launched intraparty fights and financially assisted only close allies. Republicans say his likeliest path to power is if the party loses and he can go up against Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE for minority leader. Slightly down the leadership ladder, NRCC Chair RICHARD HUDSON (R-N.C.) will have a big decision to make after the election, Punchbowl’s Melanie Zanona reports. If Republicans hold the chamber, he could probably have another go leading the campaign committee. Or he might seek to become Energy and Commerce chair — throwing in against Reps. BRETT GUTHRIE (R-Ky.) and BOB LATTA (Ohio), who are already seeking the gavel. 3. REALITY CHECK: “To Revive Manufacturing, How Much Can a President Do?” by NYT’s Lydia DePillis: “In truth, no president can single-handedly control the growth of specific industries. Larger economic forces like recessions and exchange rates tend to play a much more powerful role. But some policies can help or hinder their progress. … [A]s major factories are being built with federal aid, the rest of the manufacturing industry remains in a funk.” 4. WHAT WENT WRONG WITH HELENE: The devastation from Hurricane Helene shocked western North Carolina and other nearby Appalachian areas — a reminder of nature’s power to destroy. But NYT’s Christopher Flavelle reports that the state’s Republican legislators took actions (or lack thereof) over the past 15 years that left the region more vulnerable, often spurred by a powerful home building industry that fought against regulations. That includes fewer limits on risky construction and fewer protections for wetlands — and a crucial move to adopt new building codes more slowly. Republicans defend their decisions as the right ones. Related read: POLITICO’s E&E News’ Scott Waldman and Thomas Frank report an extraordinary anecdote from the aftermath of California’s 2018 wildfires. Two former Trump White House officials say Trump refused at first to sign off on disaster aid — until they showed him that there were more Trump voters in Orange County than in Iowa.
| | | | A message from USAFacts: All Americans are shareholders in this democracy: we contribute to the nation's coffers through tax dollars and elect representatives to write its laws. Like any shareholders, we deserve to know where the money goes and how lawmakers' policies affect society. Government data has those answers.
Founded by Steve Ballmer, USAFacts guides you through the maze that is government data. We’re a team of career researchers, data analysts, statisticians, and communication professionals. We track down government metrics in digital reports or the occasional Freedom of Information Act request. We standardize the numbers, consult designers to make clear visuals, and we refine our reports so that we share just the facts. | | | 5. HOW TRUMP WINS: “‘It Smells Like a Rat’: The Nasty Feud That Could Flip Wisconsin,” by POLITICO Magazine’s Calder McHugh in Madison: The Green Party “has no storefronts, no candidates running for local office, no relationship with the politically active UW-Madison campus, which has almost 50,000 students. Where it does have purchase is in the nightmares of local Democrats.” 6. WHAT’S UP, DOC? Trump would be the oldest president ever by the end of his second term. But a month out from the election, he has still not made public his medical records, “refusing to release even the most basic information about his health,” NYT’s Emily Baumgaertner and Maggie Haberman report. He said this summer that he would make them public. Notably, VP KAMALA HARRIS hasn’t released her medical records either. Experts say there are plenty of potential concerns around Trump’s age, cardiac health and fallout from his attempted assassination — and a history of his doctors publicly downplaying serious health concerns. 7. MEGATREND: “The Rise of the Right-Wing Tattletale,” by The Atlantic’s Adam Serwer: “[It’s] a tactic that conservatives have recently embraced in a range of social battles, including those over abortion, LGBTQ issues, and school curricula. Across the nation, Republican-controlled state legislatures and conservative activists have passed bills and embraced legal strategies that encourage Americans to monitor one another’s behavior and report their friends, family members, and neighbors to the authorities.” 8. WHAT MITCH McCONNELL IS READING: “The Whiskey Industry Is Bracing for a Trade War if Trump Wins. It’s Not Alone,” by NYT’s Ana Swanson: “In March, a 50 percent tariff on American whiskey exports to Europe will snap into effect unless the European Union and the United States can come to an agreement to stop the levies. The outcome may depend on who is in office. … Foreign governments have also been quietly trying to shield themselves against the trade disruption that could come with a return to Mr. Trump’s ‘America First’ policies.”
| | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | | John Bolton may write in Ronald Reagan for president instead of Dick Cheney. Andrew Giuliani played in the Brooklyn Open golf tournament. Julio Vaqueiro has a new Spanish-language podcast, “El Péndulo,” about the Latino vote. Rod Blagojevich doesn’t buy the charges against Eric Adams. WHOOPSIE — Melania Trump’s book publisher told CNN they’d require $250,000 for an interview with her about her new memoir, Hadas Gold and Pamela Brown report. After CNN refused, the publisher said it had been a mistake that Trump and her team knew nothing about. TRANSITIONS — Thomas Downey will be EVP and chief comms and marketing officer at Leidos. He previously spent more than three decades at Boeing. … Matt Jessee is now director of government affairs and external affairs for Missouri American Water. He previously was policy adviser at BCLP Law. … … Carolyn Fiddler will be comms director for the Democratic Attorneys General Association. She previously was political editorial director for Courier Newsroom and writes This Week in Statehouse Action. … The Council on Foreign Relations is adding David Hart, Jonathan Hillman and Stuart Reid as senior fellows in the David Rockefeller Studies Program. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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