| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | SOBRE ANOCHE — In her Univision town hall yesterday, KAMALA HARRIS drilled into a plethora of pocketbook policy proposals, seeking to shore up her support with Latino voters — and particularly Latino men, Megan Messerly reports from Las Vegas. … “Harris Walks Fine Line on Immigration at Univision Town Hall,” by NYT’s Nicholas Nehamas, Jazmine Ulloa and Jack Healy … Video of the most memorable exchange of the night JUST IN — “Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Japanese organization of atomic bombing survivors Nihon Hidankyo,” by AP’s Mike Corder and Elena Becatoros
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Donald Trump has captivated male voters of all ethnicities. | Eric Gay/AP | THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: SARAH LONGWELL — Forgive us for spending two days in a row on this election’s incredibly pronounced gender divide. But yesterday, we sat down with the Queen of the Focus Group, and we can’t pass up an opportunity to share her striking insights. Longwell may be known around town as the publisher of the Bulwark and a proud Never Trumper. She’s also a top expert at talking to voters and asking them what they think, what they want and who they’ll be voting for. (She also hosts the podcast, “The Focus Group.”) Her big takeaway when we chatted yesterday for the Playbook Deep Dive podcast? That this year is shaping up to be a “boys vs. girls election” due to the unprecedented gender gap — and that could have major implications for the trajectory our politics takes in the years ahead. “I'm worried … that we're going to move into an environment where the biggest voting indicator is no longer going to be education or geography — it's simply going to be gender,” she said. At first blush, this may seem like good news for Democrats. They are, after all, giddy about women high-tailing it away from Trump. But Trump has captivated male voters of all ethnicities, Longwell says. And she fears this dynamic will inspire more men to just shrug and say they have to vote for the dude because that’s what their bros are doing. (“Voting can work more like that for people than you might think,” she said.) Be sure to listen to the full interview and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. But here are a few takeaways from our convo about what’s coming straight from voters’ mouths:
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| — Forget policy. This election is about culture. Maybe that’s an overstatement, but Longwell contends that the biggest thing separating men and women right now isn’t necessarily policy differences; worries about the economy, immigration and crime are widespread, and many in both parties are unhappy with the post-Roe abortion landscape. Rather, men and women are finding themselves at loggerheads because of cultural issues, temperaments and their media diets, says Longwell. Increasingly, men are tuning into influential bro-y podcasts and talk shows, while women listen to those that speak to their own preferences. — Why men love Trump: As a so-called “woke” culture took hold in society, men have voiced frustration with feeling policed on their language and actions — even scapegoated by society. Many find Trump to be an ally in their plight, Longwell says: “Trump gives everybody permission to be their worst selves. You want to say sexist things that are funny? Trump's there to tell you that’s cool.” Some men see Trump as an aspirational figure. Longwell recounts hearing men in her focus groups talk about his wealth, his attractive wife and his ownership of a football team — the kinds of things they want for themselves. And they dig the tough-guy image he’s curating in public events and appearances with key bro-y influencers. Meanwhile, on the other side of the gender divide: “It's not just that Donald Trump and JD VANCE are not attracting women; it's that they're actively repelling women,” Longwell says. “Basically, like, they’ve given up on the idea that they can get women, and they are really leaning on the fact that they can turn out men at a rate unseen before.” — On Trump’s unlikely coalition: Longwell has a hard time getting Washington insiders to understand one of the biggest findings from her focus groups: To a bunch of voters, Trump gets “a pass” on the idea that he’s an extremist. Why not? Well, despite refusing to abide by the results of the 2020 election, flirting with dictators and vowing to use the government to go after his personal and political opponents, voters still perceive him as jokey and relatively harmless: “They don’t see him as a dictator threat.” That extends to his stance on abortion, she argued. Since he’s had several divorces and paid hush money to a porn star, voters “do not see him as a MIKE PENCE-type of pro-life guy.” “He has fused an old-style coalition that is socially conservative, pro-life, Christian Evangelical, together with a sort of Barstool Sports, bro coalition that is pro-choice, culturally fine with things like gay marriage … but doesn't like all the ‘woke’ stuff,” Longwell said. — There’s a real “vibe shift” toward Trump recently. We’ve seen it in recent polling and in the betting markets, but there’s some suggestion that Trump is having a last-minute revival right now. And Longwell says she’s feeling it in focus groups, too. Each week, she does about three focus groups with eight or nine swing voters who backed Trump in 2016 and JOE BIDEN in 2020 — and she’s now finding about two in each group who are going back to Trump once again. For them, the debate is out of sight, and Trump’s lack of mainstream media interviews keeps his negatives at bay. “[W]hen he's kind of out of the picture … people forget all the chaos that he brings,” Longwell says. Longwell is also hearing increased angst from voters about the world being in chaos, whether it’s hurricanes or foreign policy. And even among women, when “people feel really unsettled, there's a little bit of the reaching for the strongman.” — Her advice for Harris: Keep abortion rights center stage. When Longwell asks voters what’s top of mind, they usually say prices, immigration and crime. But once her team brings up reproductive rights, it’s all any of the women in her focus groups can talk about. “If you let it recede into people's minds — if you let it not be the dominant issue and it is immigration and the economy,” she said, “they just kind of drift away.” Harris’ challenge is to turn out those women — and embrace nontraditional media to do so. Those softball interviews we mocked earlier in the week? Well, per Longwell, they’re working. And Harris should do them over and over and over again until Election Day. “The way that Donald Trump is trying to run up the numbers with men, she's got to do the same thing with women,” Longwell says. Related read: BARACK OBAMA urged Black men to step up their support for Harris yesterday, a sign that her campaign is worried about what is typically a reliable demographic for Democrats, Brakkton Booker writes. “Referencing reports that support for Harris is lagging among Black males, the former president gave what amounted to a scolding as he made an unscheduled stop at a campaign field office in Pittsburgh.” Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Were you able to see the aurora last night? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.
| | | | A message from United for Democracy: Banning IVF, abortion, and many types of contraception. Creating a national pregnancy registry. Criminalizing porn. Making you pay more for healthcare and housing. Sound like a nightmare? No - it's Project 2025. And if Trump is elected, it will be the MAGA movement's dream that the corrupt Supreme Court justices made come true. But we can vote to stop them – learn more at Project2025.wtf. | | | LEARN THIS NAME — SCOTT BESSENT may not fit the traditional profile of a Trump world character, with ties to AL GORE and GEORGE SOROS. But the hedge-fund manager went all-in for Trump after seeing the various legal troubles the former president faces. “Now Bessent is Trump’s go-to economic adviser,” WSJ’s Gregory Zuckerman and Peter Rudegeair write. “He passes campaign officials note cards with economic data and messages that Trump references on the stump. Bessent’s name has been floated for positions such as Treasury secretary should Trump recapture the White House.” TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer pens his latest Capital City column: “The New Trump Movie Depicts Him as a Rapist, Liar and Crook — and Still Feels Sympathetic: It’s not a hit piece or a hagiography: It’s an anti-hero story.” WILD STORY — “When the Hurricane-Relief Worker Turns Out To Be a Neo-Nazi,” by WSJ’s Tawnell Hobbs, Jennifer Levitz and Joe Barrett: “Neo-Nazi groups aggressively escalating their activity in recent months across the U.S. have seized upon a potent new recruiting tool: the surging tide of misinformation surrounding hurricanes.”
| | | | A message from United for Democracy: If MAGA extremists win this fall, they will pursue Project 2025 policies to gut the checks and balances that protect American freedoms.
You think the Courts will save us?! LOL. The six MAGA Supreme Court Justices are already implementing some of Project 2025’s worst ideas.
Learn more at Project2025.wtf. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: A new House Majority PAC poll of California’s 41st Congressional District finds longtime GOP Rep. KEN CALVERT tied with Democrat WILL ROLLINS at 45%. The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted Oct. 3-6 with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, and it comes as Rollins reports a whopping $3.6 million Q3. Yes, the survey is coming from a Democratic super PAC, and Calvert notched a 5-point victory over Rollins two years ago. But here’s our big takeaway: This is yet another one of a handful of close California races that could determine the House majority —
which could remain uncalled for days or even weeks thanks to the state’s mail-heavy voting system. At the White House Biden will receive a briefing on the recovery efforts from Hurricanes Helene and Milton at 12:30 p.m., with Harris attending virtually. Biden will provide an update on the efforts at 1 p.m. He will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 2:30 p.m. On the trail Trump will be in Aurora, Colorado, at 3 p.m. Eastern to deliver remarks at a campaign event. He will hold a rally in Reno, Nevada, at 8:30 p.m.
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The Impact Fund and Future Forward are launching a $3.5 million ad campaign to turn out South Asian and AAPI voters for VP Kamala Harris. | Brynn Anderson/AP | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Impact Fund, a leading national political organization representing Indian and South Asian American communities, and Future Forward are launching a $3.5 million ad campaign to turn out South Asian and AAPI voters for Harris. The campaign will run through Election Day on TV, digital and radio channels across Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia in an effort to reach 1.3 million eligible AAPI voters, including 400,000 South Asian voters. The effort marks the largest independent expenditure program ever focused on AAPI voters for a presidential candidate. The campaign will focus on issues from the economy to abortion rights to supporting caregivers, while also highlighting Harris’ South Asian heritage and background. In conjunction with the ad buy, the group is also rolling out new polling of likely South Asian voters that finds Harris with a 48-point lead (68% to 20%) among the demographic in five battleground states. On the issues, the poll found inflation and the economy as the No. 1 priority for 26% of those surveyed, with abortion (19%) and foreign policy (12%) as the only others in double digits. See the polling memo RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE LETTER FROM MINNESOTA — Democrats are deploying Walz to try to connect to rural voters. But in a visit to his former congressional district in Albert Lea, David Siders finds out why that could be an uphill battle. “Even if Walz is better than some other Democrats at talking to rural voters, how many people in a county like this one are even listening? ‘I think he can win back the ones that are maybe disillusioned with MAGA,’ [JANECE] JEFFREY told me. The problem, she added, is that in her county, ‘I don’t know how many of them are left.’” Walz to Walz: The Harris campaign today is sending TIM WALZ on a “man-focused media blitz, including football-focused TV interviews and pheasant hunting with digital influencers,” Elena Schneider reports. Tonight in Minnesota, “he’ll deliver the pep talk to Mankato West’s football team, his former football squad, ahead of their game against rivals Mankato East.” TRUMP’S LATEST TAX PLAY — Deep into a rambling speech in Michigan yesterday, Trump unveiled his latest tax play for voters: a call to make car loan interest fully tax deductible. “The proposal, which came late during a circuitous speech to business leaders, merged two of Mr. Trump’s favored efforts to win voters: targeted tax cuts aimed at key voting blocs nationwide and promises to revitalize the auto industry in Michigan,” NYT’s Michael Gold and Alan Rappeport report. But in a bizarre moment in the lead-up to his announcement, Trump took aim at the very city he was speaking in: “Our whole country will end up being like Detroit if she’s your president,” Trump said, referring to Harris — a remark that dominated local coverage of the appearance. RACE FOR THE SENATE CRABCAKES AND HOSTILITY — Democrat ANGELA ALSOBROOKS and Republican LARRY HOGAN in their lone Maryland Senate debate last night rolled out “a volley of charges that each side was trying to mislead voters,” WaPo’s Katie Shepherd and Erin Cox report from Owings Mills, Maryland. “On the stage at the Maryland Public Television studio, the candidates fought over whether Hogan could serve as an independent voice in a Senate controlled by Republicans, who would best protect abortion rights, and other far-ranging topic such as foreign policy, legalizing marijuana nationwide and how many days federal workers should be required to return to the office.” CASHING IN — Senate Republicans are ready to ramp up their plans to exploit a campaign-finance loophole that will allow them to save millions of dollars on TV advertising, after the FEC deadlocked in a contentious meeting yesterday, Ally Mutnick, Jessica Piper and Madison Fernandez report. “Republicans in late July began quietly piloting their new strategy: running campaign ads for a candidate, framed as a fundraising plea, to get cheaper ad rates and avoid awkward content restrictions.” After a 3-3 vote on the issue, the practice is effectively clear to continue, much to the chagrin of Democrats who called foul. RACE FOR THE HOUSE BEIJING’S LONG REACH — “A firehose of antisemitic disinformation from China is pointing at two Republican legislators,” by WaPo’s Jeremy B. Merrill, Aaron Schaffer and Naomi Nix: “One covert influence operation has focused on Rep. BARRY MOORE (R-Ala.). … A China-linked account on X called Moore “a Jewish dog” and claimed he won his primary because of “the bloody Jewish consortium,” among other derogatory tropes. … Moore, who recently backed new sanctions on Chinese officials, is not Jewish.” POLL POSITION KEYS TO THE KEYSTONE — Swing-district Rep. SUSAN WILD (D-Pa.) is ahead by 6 points in a fairly strong poll for Democrats overall, per Muhlenberg College/Morning Call. … A statewide poll from the Center for Working-Class Politics/YouGov has Harris up 2 in Pennsylvania, even as Trump leads with union and manual workers, per Jacobin. National: Harris +1, per Pew Research Center. … Wisconsin: Trump and Harris tied at 49, per Emerson/The Hill. … Michigan: Trump and Harris tied at 49, per Emerson. … Pennsylvania: Trump +1, per Emerson. … North Carolina: Trump +1, per Emerson. … Nevada: Harris +1, per Emerson. Georgia: Trump +1, per Emerson. … Arizona: Trump +2, per Emerson.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | BEYOND THE BELTWAY
|  President Joe Biden told reporters that he thinks Congress “should be coming back and moving on emergency needs immediately” in the wake of Hurricane Milton’s landfall. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo | STURM UND DRANG — Biden told reporters that he thinks Congress “should be coming back and moving on emergency needs immediately” and “move as rapidly as they can, particularly on the most immediate need, which is small business” in the wake of Hurricane Milton’s landfall and devastation. “FEMA currently has the resources it needs for its lengthy response effort, Biden said, but a Small Business Administration fund that provides disaster loans to homeowners and businesses is running low. “It’s pretty right at the edge right now,” he said of the available SBA funding. “They’re going to need a lot more.” More from Adam Cancryn But Speaker MIKE JOHNSON slammed the door on Biden’s urging, telling POLITICO’s E&E News’ Andres Picon in a statement: “To be clear: Congress will act again upon its return in November to address funding needs and ensure those impacted receive the necessary resources,” spox ATHINA LAWSON said. Related read: “How hurricane falsehoods are dividing the Republican Party,” by WaPo’s Maxine Joselow and Mariana Alfaro … “‘It is hurricane season’: DeSantis pushes back on climate’s role in fueling stronger storms,” by Bruce Ritchie … “The damage caused by Hurricane Milton in maps, photos and videos,” by WaPo’s Laris Karklis, Bonnie Berkowitz and Dylan Moriarty More top reads:
JUDICIARY SQUARE THE TRUMP TRIALS — Judge TANYA CHUTKAN yesterday “approved a limited release of a compilation of evidence against him, but stayed her order for a week in case Mr. Trump’s legal team wants to challenge the disclosure,” NYT’s Charlie Savage reports. “Even if the court filing at issue — an appendix to a 165-page brief by the special counsel, JACK SMITH, that was unsealed last week — becomes public, it appears unlikely to contain significant new revelations.” FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — “Gateway Pundit settles with Georgia election workers in defamation suit,” by WaPo’s Sarah Ellison and Amy Gardner
| | | | A message from United for Democracy:   | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
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Debris and damage surround the site of an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, Lebanon, Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024. | Hassan Ammar/AP Photo | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — Arab officials are warning that leaders in Iran are “threatening in secret diplomatic backchannels to target the oil-rich Arab Gulf states and other American allies in the Middle East if their territories or airspace are used for an attack on Iran,” WSJ’s Summer Said, Nancy Youssef and Omar Abdel-Baqui report from Dubai. “The Arab officials said the countries that Iran has threatened include Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, all of which host U.S. troops. These states have told the Biden administration that they don’t want their military infrastructure or airspace to be used by the U.S. or Israel for any offensive operations against Iran, the officials said.” On the ground: “At least 22 killed in airstrikes in central Beirut, with Israel also firing on UN peacekeepers,” by AP’s Wafaa Shurafa, Bilal Hussein and Samy Magdy MEDIAWATCH CBS’ LATEST DRAMA HIT — FCC Chair JESSICA ROSENWORCEL is defending CBS amid Trump’s threatening rhetoric over the news outlet’s seemingly incongruent editing of Harris’ “60 Minutes” interview, CNN’s Liam Reilly reports. She said her agency “does not and will not revoke licenses for broadcast stations simply because a political candidate disagrees with or dislikes content or coverage” and said Trump’s “threats against free speech are serious and should not be ignored.” TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week”: Jeff Mason, Jessica Taylor, Saleha Mohsin and Ashley Parker. SUNDAY SO FAR … ABC “This Week”: Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) … Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. Panel: Donna Brazile, Reince Priebus, Rachael Bade and Susan Glasser. CBS “Face the Nation”: Speaker Mike Johnson … Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.). FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio). Panel: Richard Fowler, Mary Katharine Ham, Cal Thomas and Bob Cusack. Sunday Special: Hadassah and Matthew Lieberman. NBC “Meet the Press”: Speaker Mike Johnson … Liz Cheney. Panel: Monica Alba, Cornell Belcher, Leigh Anne Caldwell and Lanhee Chen. CNN “State of the Union”: Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) … James Carville. NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) … Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) … David Rubenstein. Panel: George Will, Jasmine Wright and Jessica Taylor.
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Claudia Conway is paving her own political path. Tiffany Trump is pregnant. Marshawn Lynch might run for mayor of Oakland. Roger Stone wants to place armed guards at polling sites on Election Day. Ryan Salame posted an, uh, unexpected update on LinkedIn. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED on Wednesday night at a book party celebrating Connie Chung’s new memoir, “Connie,” ($22.75) hosted by Nancy Taylor Bubes and Alan Bubes in Georgetown featuring a congratulations proclamation from D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser: Maury Povich, Andrea Mitchell, Rita Braver and Bob Barnett, Roy and Abby Blunt, Mark Lerner, Mary Haft, Weijia Jiang and Luther Lowe, Ward Sloan, Carol Joyner, Michael Wilbon, Gloria Borger and Lance Morgan, Abbe Lowell, Gary and Dana Williams, Stuart and Wilma Bernstein, Bill Moody, Tom Anderson and Roberta Baskin. — Stacy Rich and Cornerstone Government Affairs hosted an event for Kate Andersen Brower’s new book, “The Hill: Inside the Secret World of the U.S. Capitol” ($19.99) with a conversation moderated by Pamala Brown. SPOTTED: David Montes, Brooke Brower, Sam Feist, Caren Bohan, Kirsten West, Jason Park, Stacy Kerr, Kristin Whitman, Anne Cynamon, Reema Dodin, Kendra Isaacson, Christopher Andersen, Steve Scully, Ryann DuRant and Leigh Claffey. TRANSITIONS — Trevor Grady is now a policy comms manager at Schneider Electric. He previously was VP at Black Rock Group. … Will Mesinger is joining West End Strategy Team as a VP. He previously was a director with Meraki Communications Group. … Steve Kidera is joining Rational 360 as SVP of technology. He previously led comms for TechNet. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) … Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.) … Robert Lighthizer … Prime Policy Group’s Charlie Black … Kristina Costa … WSJ’s Tarini Parti … Katie Boyd of CGCN Group … Joel Riethmiller … former Rep. Bob Inglis (R-S.C.) … Alana Conant … former Defense Secretary William Perry … JetBlue’s Robert Land … Bruce Bartlett … Lauren Culbertson of the Ledyard Group and the Blue Owl Group … Jamie Weinstein … Libra Group’s Emily Teitelbaum … David Callaway … Reason’s Mike Riggs … Maura Gillespie … Andrew Block of America First Legal … Christine Newman of MapleBridge Strategies … Martin LeBlanc of LBC Action (5-0) … John Michael of Vinson & Elkins Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated when former Rep. Brad Ashford (D-Neb.) endorsed Don Bacon. It was 2020.
| | | | A message from United for Democracy: Project 2025 is a policy blueprint created by the far-right Heritage Foundation meant to gut America’s system of checks and balances. Their goal? Take control of the government… and our lives.
If MAGA extremists win this fall, they will pursue Project 2025 policies like banning IVF and setting up a national abortion and pregnancy registry to force states to report abortion data. While raising taxes on middle-class Americans, they’ll also remove many environmental protections so companies can pollute our air, soil, and water with known cancer-causing toxic chemicals.
You think the Courts will save us?! LOL. The six MAGA Supreme Court Justices are already implementing some of Project 2025’s worst ideas.
In fact, they already deemed a president immune from all criminal acts they deem “official,” and stripped women of their reproductive freedom.
Learn more at Project2025.wtf, before it’s too late.
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