🗳️ Axios PM: The 13%

👀 See the robovan | Friday, October 11, 2024

Open in app View in browser   Axios PM By Mike Allen · Oct 11, 2024 Happy Friday afternoon. Today's newsletter, edited by Alex Fitzpatrick, is 436 words, a 2-min. read. Thanks to Sheryl Miller for copy editing.     1 big thing: 🗳️ Most valuable voters   Photo illustration: Tiffany Herring/Axios. Photos: Brandon Bell, Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images The presidential election — 25 days from now — could come down to a mere 13% of voters who are still persuadable, Axios' Ivana Saric writes from a new Pew poll. Just 5% said they had no preference. The rest of the persuadable group said they're likely to vote one way or the other, but said they could still change their minds. Even among the 5% who didn't initially pick a candidate, virtually all leaned one way or the other when pressed by the pollster. Why it matters: The results underscore just how few votes are up for grabs in the multibillion-dollar race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris. 🖼️ The big picture: Pew found 82% of voters are locked in — 42% for Harris and 40% for Trump. 5% say they'll vote for a third-party candidate. 🔎 Between the lines: Operatives in both parties have long told us they expect the race to come down to roughly 6% of voters in the seven swing states. Harris campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon has said going back to the convention that this'll be a "margin of error race." Explore the data.     2. 🎯 Right on track   Evolution of forecast track maps from the National Hurricane Center. Image: NOAA The National Hurricane Center's track forecasts for Hurricane Milton were unusually accurate, Axios extreme weather expert Andrew Freedman writes. Why it matters: The early confidence gave officials time to warn the public and prepare communities for the powerful storm. Milton was always predicted to come ashore near Tampa Bay. This never wavered, despite typical uncertainties at long lead times. 👓 Between the lines: A wobble of the hurricane's eye, by just a few miles, made the difference between a massive disaster and a storm characterized by flooding rains and high winds. The bottom line: Forecasts for Hurricane Milton are likely to be studied for years as meteorologists learn new tools and refine how they communicate. Go deeper: Milton's "reverse surge" sucked water away from flood-fearing Tampa     3. Catch me up   Image: Tesla Tesla shares fell about 8% by midafternoon after the company's robotaxi and robovan (above) failed to impress investors. Go deeper. WNBA playoffs viewership is surging, with ratings up nearly 150%. Go deeper. A Japanese organization of atomic bomb survivors, Nihon Hidakanyo, won the Nobel Peace Prize. Go deeper.     4. 📸 1 for the road   Photos: Sarah Grillo and Alex Fitzpatrick/Axios Several Axios staffers spotted the Northern Lights last night, as part of a night-sky show that extended from Maine down to Texas and Florida. There's a chance of continued aurora activity into the weekend. How to watch ... More photos.   📬 Please invite your friends to join PM. Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Advertise with us. Axios, PO Box 101060, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. To stop receiving this newsletter, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: