Friday, September 20, 2024

Playing small ball in the states

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By Eli Okun

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THE CATCH-UP

ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT — In a unanimous vote, the House today passed a bill to beef up security protections for major-party presidential nominees this cycle and beyond, Jordain Carney reports. The Secret Service would have to give the same consideration to presidential and vice presidential nominees as it does to presidents and vice presidents in figuring out how much security to provide.

SIREN — DONALD TRUMP allies on the Georgia State Election Board have voted through a new election rule to require all ballots to be hand-counted, which could significantly delay the state’s election results for “weeks if not months,” per WaPo’s Amy Gardner. Expect legal challenges to the decision ahead.

Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein speaks during a rally at Union Park during the Democratic National Convention Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2024, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Jill Stein won't be an option for Nevada voters. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo

FOUR BATTLES TO WATCH — The presidential race is extremely close right now: VP KAMALA HARRIS retook the lead today in Nate Silver’s model for the first time in more than three weeks, but it’s essentially a tossup. And with the margins so tight, every marginal court decision, legislative move or demographic shift could swing the entire outcome. Here are a few to keep your eye on today.

Nevada: The Supreme Court today kept the Green Party off the state’s ballot, a victory for Democrats who would otherwise have worried about JILL STEIN pulling votes, per the Nevada Independent’s Eric Neugeboren. Trump attorney JAY SEKULOW had brought the Green Party’s appeal to the high court. But the justices denied the emergency request, without anybody dissenting explicitly. That means it’ll really just be Trump vs. Harris in the Silver State, where the Green Party has failed to get on the ballot for 16 years running.

Omaha: Will Nebraska Republicans actually spring for Trump world’s urging to rewrite the state’s Electoral College vote allocation, siphoning a likely vote from the Omaha-area congressional district from Harris? The signals have been mixed. The Omaha World-Herald’s Martha Stoddard reports today from Lincoln that the change still looks “unlikely.”

State Sen. LOREN LIPPINCOTT, the bill’s sponsor, said Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM’s (R-S.C.) explicitly partisan appeal didn’t sway the holdouts, and the legislation remains two to three votes short of being able to beat a filibuster. And the office of state Sen. MIKE McDONNELL, who joined the GOP just this year and is one of the key votes, told the Nebraska Examiner’s Aaron Sanderford that “as of today” he’s still a no.

Madison: The Wisconsin state capital, where Harris is holding a rally tonight, is the key to any Democratic victory in the Badger State. As the Madison metro area has grown rapidly, liberals moving from out of state for tech and health care jobs could help keep Wisconsin in Democratic hands, NYT’s Julie Bosman and Robert Gebeloff report from Dane County. The population is booming, and Dems are organizing to make sure turnout is high.

Harrisburg: There’s a similar story unfolding in Pennsylvania’s state capital, where plenty of new arrivals have helped shift a conservative-leaning congressional district toward the center. In NY Mag, Ben Jacobs has a dispatch from the rare House race where a far-right Republican, Rep. SCOTT PERRY, represents a swingy constituency — and a region on which the whole presidential race could turn. “If Harris wins this swing district, it would be almost mathematically impossible for her to lose the state.”

MEDIAWATCH — “NY Mag correspondent placed on leave for relationship with RFK Jr.,” by Andrew Howard: “New York magazine placed its Washington political correspondent, OLIVIA NUZZI, on leave Thursday evening for engaging in a ‘personal relationship’ with former presidential hopeful ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. that was a ‘violation of the magazine’s standards around conflicts of interest and disclosures.’

“Media reporter Oliver Darcy first reported on the leave Thursday. … The magazine said it conducted an internal review of Nuzzi’s work and found ‘no inaccuracies nor evidence of bias’ and said it was conducting a third-party review.”

A note from our own Ryan Lizza: “Because of my connection to this story through my ex-fiancée, my editors and I have agreed that I won't be involved in any coverage of Kennedy in Playbook or elsewhere at POLITICO.”

Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.

SURVEY SAYS — The University of Mary Washington has a fantastic poll for Trump, finding Harris ahead by just 1 point in Virginia. Caveat: This was conducted before the debate.

TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer’s latest: “Golfing for Dollars: The PGA Tour’s Saudi Deal Leaves 9/11 Families Out in the Cold: When the kingdom started a rival golf circuit, the PGA Tour needed to highlight the dubious Saudi record. Then the golf elites made peace, and 9/11 families were cut out.”

 

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9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris listens as she joins Oprah Winfrey at Oprah's Unite for America Live Streaming event Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024 in Farmington Hills, Mich. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

VP Kamala Harris could face a lot of resistance if she wins the White House but Republicans flip the Senate. | Paul Sancya/AP Photo

1. THE STAKES FOR NOVEMBER: It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Harris wins the White House but Republicans flip that Senate. A pair of new stories explore what could happen then: NBC’s Sahil Kapur and Alex Tabet report that top Senate Republicans would force Harris to get their approval on any judicial nominees, while the prospects for big-ticket legislation would be slim. Plenty of other nominations could be tough too. Would Republicans pull a MITCH McCONNELL and outright refuse to allow her to fill a Supreme Court vacancy? Democrats aren’t going there yet, but they expect a fight.

Republicans are “in a fighting mood,” Semafor’s Burgess Everett reports, and they intend to force Harris to moderate her nominees for Cabinet posts and the courts. Progressive picks could get blocked. “It’s hard to overstate how slow-moving and bitter a divided Washington would be next year,” Burgess writes. And the situation could be unprecedented: No president has started their first term without Congress being controlled by their party since the 1980s, when the parties were less polarized.

2. TOP-ED: “I’m the Governor of Ohio. I Don’t Recognize the Springfield That Trump and Vance Describe,” by MIKE DeWINE in the NYT: “I am saddened by how they and others continue to repeat claims that lack evidence and disparage the legal migrants living in Springfield. This rhetoric hurts the city and its people, and it hurts those who have spent their lives there.”

3. TEAMSTERS FALLOUT: Union president SEAN O’BRIEN said on CNN’s “Inside Politics” that the Teamsters’ decision not to endorse in the presidential race “was not an endorsement for the Republican Party,” amid sharp criticism from the left that the Teamsters had abandoned Democrats. But pointing to the Biden administration’s 2022 move to end a rail strike, he said Harris had refused to commit “that the government will not interfere or impede our right to strike.” On the other hand, the Teamsters Rail Conference actually endorsed Harris today. Trump, meanwhile, had refused to commit to the PRO Act or vetoing national right-to-work legislation, O’Brien said.

4. JAN. 6 DEEP DIVE: “Two gunshots, a fatal stabbing, and the mystery man of the Capitol riot,” by CNN’s Thomas Lake: “Despite having evidence that [JOHN BANUELOS] brought a gun to the riot, the FBI did not arrest him until three years later, after video footage of the gunfire appeared on the internet. He was still at large in July 2021, when he took part in a fight in Salt Lake City that left another man dead. Among nearly 1,500 people who have been criminally charged in connection with the Capitol riot, Banuelos stands apart.”

 

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5. MARK ROBINSON LATEST: Democrats are already working to capitalize on the North Carolina lieutenant governor’s latest scandal. The DNC is going up with a digital ad and billboards tying Robinson, the GOP gubernatorial nominee, to Trump, NBC’s Megan Lebowitz scooped. The Harris campaign is also going up with a TV ad linking Trump and Robinson, CNN’s Alayna Treene scooped, though the focus is on Robinson’s abortion comments. But NBC’s Jill Frankel reports that Robinson won’t be joining for Trump’s Wilmington rally tomorrow.

6. BIG MONEY: Harris’ fundraising dominance has allowed her to open up a massive disparity in online advertising over Trump, NYT’s Shane Goldmacher and Nicholas Nehamas report. On Facebook and Instagram the week of their debate, Harris’ ad spending was 20 times Trump’s. Though Trump has focused much more on Google/YouTube ads, Harris has outstripped him there, too. It’s a significant reversal from 2020, when Trump dominated Democrats in early online ad spending, worrying some Republicans — though others think it reflects a changing strategy to reach voters who already know him.

7. HAPPENING TODAY: “Biden Will Take Cancer ‘Moonshot’ Global at Summit in Delaware,” by NYT’s Sheryl Gay Stolberg: “When [President JOE] BIDEN and the leaders of Australia, India and Japan meet in Wilmington, Del., on Saturday for the president’s final so-called Quad Summit, they will unveil a new collaboration aimed at reducing cervical cancer in the Indo-Pacific, White House officials said. … U.S. Navy hospital ships, which already work in the region, would begin conducting cervical cancer screenings and delivering vaccines to remote island nations.” U.S. Ambassador to Australia CAROLINE KENNEDY is leading the effort.

8. POLITICAL VIOLENCE WATCH: Across the country this week, the FBI is investigating after suspicious packages were sent to election offices in 21 states, CNN’s Marshall Cohen, Sara Murray and Ali Main and the AP report. Some offices were evacuated and staff were frightened, though “[t]here are some early indications that at least some of the letters did not actually contain any dangerous chemicals or substances.”

9. IRAQ LATEST: “US to announce plan to draw down troops in Iraq,” by Paul McLeary: “The U.S. expects to announce next week a long-awaited agreement with Iraq on reducing the U.S. troop presence in the country, two administration officials said on Friday. Negotiations over the plan, which Iraqi officials have said publicly would lead to the 2,500 U.S. troops in Iraq leaving by the end of 2026, are in their final stages, the officials said. They acknowledged that the fight against the remnants of ISIS in Iraq and Syria isn’t over.”

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Kamala Harris did the Wired autocomplete interview.

Jill Biden is concerned about a peaceful transfer of power.

Karl Rove has amazing Donald Trump and Bill Clinton impressions.

Melania Trump is proud of how she changed the White House Rose Garden.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at last night’s Washington Mystics-Indiana Fever game at Capital One Arena, the highest-attended game in WNBA history: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and Reps. David Trone (D-Md.), Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), Joe Neguse (D-Colo.), Nikki Budzinski (D-Ill.), Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.), Angie Craig (D-Minn.), Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.), Kathy Manning (D-N.C.), Jennifer McClellan (D-Va.), Mary Peltola (D-Alaska), Brittany Pettersen (D-Colo.), Chellie Pingree (D-Maine), Katie Porter (D-Calif.), Mary Gay Scanlon (D-Pa.), Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.), Melanie Stansbury (D-N.M.), Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio), Jill Tokuda (D-Hawaii), Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) and Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.).

British Ambassador Karen Pierce and Charles Roxburgh hosted a dinner with Catherine and Wayne Reynolds in honor of Led Zeppelin’s Jimmy Page. Guests were treated to a set by Grace Potter, who performed a cover of “Whole Lotta Love.” SPOTTED: AG Merrick Garland, Chief Justice John Roberts, Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), Kurt Campbell, Richard Verma, Jon Finer, Bill Frist, Italian Ambassador Mariangela Zappia, Steve Ricchetti, Mike Donilon, Brian Hook and Maureen Dowd.

The Zero Emissions Transportation Association Education Fund hosted the second annual EV Awards last night at Union Station’s East Hall, where Allan Swan, Kameale Terry and Jonathan Evans were honored. Also SPOTTED: Reps. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) and Mark Amodei (R-Nev.) and Albert Gore III.

The Women’s Media Center hosted this year’s Women’s Media Awards at the JW Marriott Essex House in NYC last night. Awards went to Yamiche Alcindor, America Ferrera, Donna Deitch, Liz Rebecca Alarcón, Rahna Epting, Jenice Fountain and Chicken & Egg Pictures.

Rokk Solutions held its annual “ROKKtoberfest” last night on K Street. SPOTTED: Jennifer Epperson, Alivia Roberts, James Johnson, Paige Schwartz, Dylan Sodaro, Roberto Sada, Brian Sansoni, Tyler Jones, Simon Behrmann, Chynna Hawes, Meredith Owen and Sheena Mollineau.

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and British Embassy hosted an “American vs. British Beef Cookoff” last night to highlight trade between the U.S. and U.K., with British ribeye steaks and American New York strip steaks. SPOTTED: Reps. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.) and Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.), Doug McKalip, Daniel Whitley, James Roscoe, Colin Gray, Gene Copenhaver and Tom Bradshaw.

TRANSITIONS — Olivia Choe is now a litigation arbitration partner at Milbank. She most recently was chief litigation counsel for the SEC’s Division of Enforcement. … Brittany Hamzy is now digital policy research officer at the Center for International Media Assistance, a National Endowment for Democracy initiative. She most recently was senior information integrity officer at the International Foundation for Electoral Systems. … Kristin Lord announced that she’ll step down from her role as president and CEO of IREX next year.

WEDDINGS — John Horstman, EVP at Davies Public Affairs, and Carolina Hurley, SVP at the Agency Group, got married Saturday at an estate in Charlottesville, Virginia. They met in the comms department at the Trump White House. SPOTTED: Catharine Cypher, Caroline Magyarits, Kelly Kundinger, Meg McCann, Michael Mahfouz, Charlotte Riggs, Catherine Brady, Janet Montesi, Alexandra Veletsis and Rachel Craddock (Schlagbaum), with video production by Alex Anderson and Chase Scott.

— Nathan Baca, a comms officer with the Department of Defense, and Becca Knier, a photojournalist with Gray’s InvestigateTV, got married Sept. 12 near Frederick, Md. Adam Longo officiated. The couple met while working together on assignment at WUSA9; they covered the 2020 Lafayette Park tear gassing together. PicAnother pic

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