THE BUZZ: WHERE THERE’S SMOKE — Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will today endorse a San Francisco ballot measure to lower the retirement age for city firefighters to receive a full pension, Playbook can exclusively report. That endorsement, from the city’s most popular and powerful elected official, has much grander political meaning beyond just this measure, or even the city’s politics, for two major reasons: 1): It creates another campaign headache for embattled Mayor London Breed as she seeks reelection. The measure has divided City Hall with Breed opposing the idea in spite of the powerful firefighters’ union, arguing the change would add millions in costs to the city’s existing budget deficits. The firefighters have, in turn, given their top endorsement to Breed’s rival, Mark Farrell, a former interim mayor and venture capitalist. 2) It marks yet another foray by Pelosi into local politics — prompting insiders to question whether she’s laying the foundation for her daughter, Christine Pelosi, to succeed her. That could set the table for a bruising contest with state Sen. Scott Wiener, who’s waged a years-long shadow campaign for SF’s coveted congressional seat. San Francisco Firefighters Local 798 told Playbook it will unveil Pelosi’s backing this afternoon during a campaign launch at its union hall in the southeastern Bayview neighborhood. The event comes the day after the 23-year anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, a day that honors the sacrifices of firefighters. Pelosi isn’t the only prominent politician announcing their support. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, who’s vying for labor support in her 2026 race for governor, will also endorse it. In a statement, Kounalakis said the measure prioritizes “protecting those who protect us.” The ballot measure, Proposition H, would lower the retirement age at which firefighters qualify for a maximum pension from 58 to 55. Firefighters argue the science is clear that retiring earlier would save many from early death due to cancer, cardiac issues and other illnesses tied to prolonged exposure to smoke and toxic chemicals. Today’s press conference will feature the mother of a firefighter who died from cancer and a firefighter who survived the disease. Breed, a close Wiener ally whom Pelosi notably has not endorsed, had the backing of the firefighters when she last ran in 2019. In 2018, when Breed won a special election to succeed the late Mayor Ed Lee, the firefighters spent $1 million to boost her campaign. Not to mention that the union is influential in shaping voters’ mood on public-safety issues. Put simply, the union is one of the most powerful and deep-pocketed labor groups in union-friendly San Francisco. Losing its support could be a major blow to Breed in a race that, polling suggests, is intensely close. The union has instead listed Farrell as its first choice on the city’s ranked-choice ballot, though the union has said it isn’t bankrolling an independent-expenditure committee to support him. At a debate hosted by the firefighters in July, Farrell backed Prop H and aggressively angled for the group’s endorsement. “I have childhood friends in the fire department,” Farrell said at the time. Two other major contenders in the mayor’s race — Daniel Lurie, a nonprofit executive and heir to the Levi Strauss fortune, and Aaron Peskin, president of the city Board of Supervisors — have also endorsed Prop H. Breed has argued opposing Prop H is the fiscally “responsible” thing to do. The city controller estimates it would raise pension costs by at least $3.7 million starting next year, a price tag that would increase annually over the next 16 years. Breed has brushed off the political fallout and accuses her opponents of making lofty and “irresponsible” promises. “As mayor, I can’t be so cavalier with our city’s financial well-being,” Breed told Playbook in a statement Wednesday. “And it is my job to make tough decisions that are in the city’s best interest.” And then there’s the Pelosi-succession intrigue. The speaker emerita and her daughter have repeatedly dismissed questions about when she might retire and whether Christine Pelosi would run. And, to be clear, Nancy Pelosi has been a labor ally for decades. But the elder Pelosi has also made several moves in recent months that Wiener’s allies have interpreted as opening salvos in that brewing fight — including perceived attempts to court union support for Christine. Today’s endorsement likely adds more tea to that pot, and another wrinkle to a mayor’s race that feels wide open. GOOD MORNING. Happy Thursday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte. WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
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