Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Year-End Rally Ahead?

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Indicators Point to a Year-End Rally

Matt Benjamin, Senior Markets Expert, The Oxford Club

Matt Benjamin

As we move into September, it's beginning to look like we could see a strong year-end run for stocks.

First, the economy looks very healthy at the moment.

Last week, I wrote about how a recession this year is increasingly unlikely. I pointed out that the economy continues to create jobs, albeit at a slower pace than earlier in the year; that new claims for unemployment insurance continue to fall; that American consumers continue to spend money; and that inflation continues to moderate.

Best of all, I noted that corporate earnings are at an all-time high. And that looks like it will continue into next year.

Industry analysts predict the S&P 500 will report year-over-year earnings growth of 11.3%, and a whopping 14.4% growth in 2025.

It's relatively rare to see two consecutive years of double-digit earnings growth for this group of companies...

The only time it happened in the last 15 years was in 2010-2011 and 2017-2018.

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