| | | | |  | | By Joe Gould, Eric Bazail-Eimil, Erin Banco and Miles J. Herszenhorn | |  The Israeli Iron Dome air defense system fires to intercept an attack from Lebanon over the Galilee region on Aug. 4, 2024. Israel is short on the munitions it’ll need to fully repel a major expected attack from Iran and Hezbollah this week. | Leo Correa/AP | With help from Erin Banco, Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Israel is short on the munitions it’ll need to fully repel a major expected attack from Iran and Hezbollah this week, and it’s unclear whether Arab neighbors will step in to help as much as they have during past attacks. Iran’s April 13 attack, which involved more than 300 missiles and drones, was almost entirely intercepted by a coalition of allies aiding the Israeli military. But Arab countries are frustrated by Israel’s killings of Hamas leader ISMAIL HANIYEH in Tehran and Hezbollah’s FUAD SHUKR in the Beirut suburbs — and they’re vexed by threats from Tehran that they too will be targets of its fury if they intervene. It also remains to be seen how successful U.S. efforts to revive that coalition will be and how willing some of those countries will be now. “Generally, there’s a certain degree of fatigue and to some degree I would imagine a resentment that we’re in this situation right now off the backs of the assassinations of Shukr and Haniyeh,” said JONATHAN LORD, director of the Middle East security program at the Center for a New American Security. While April’s attack was led by Iran with other proxies joining in, Hezbollah has more skin in the game after Shukr’s death and is likely to target further south and use its strategic supplies of precision-guided missiles. TOM KARAKO, the director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told NatSec Daily that the biggest vulnerability would be that Iran and its proxies “overwhelm a particular defense system at a particular place and a particular time,” given Israel’s depleted stocks. “It’s inventory capacity of Iron Domes. There’s not enough Iron Domes in the world to deal with 100,000 rockets, and that’s not the fault of Iron Dome or any other system. It’s just basic arithmetic,” he said. Such a scenario would require the U.S. and others to handle any salvos coming in from Iranian territory. Meanwhile, Israel could be expected to scramble fighters and strike Hezbollah’s launchers inside Lebanon, risking a wider war. Lord argued that Arab leaders sitting out this next round isn’t going to make peace more likely. He predicted that they would “begrudgingly” muster again. “I would understand their feelings of frustration and anxiety, but at the same time understand that if Iran and Hezbollah are successful in creating catastrophic harm in Israel, it’s not going to lead to a de-escalation,” Lord said. “That’s going to make it much worse than the day before. I would think logic would prevail that they need to step up and continue to do their part to essentially Nerf this attack as best as possible.” The U.S. expects that Arab allies and partners will help Israel. But a former U.S. diplomat who worked in the region, granted anonymity to speak candidly about sensitive diplomatic dynamics, said that any breaks in that support will be the fault of Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU. "It's a question of shared frustration with a conflict in which neither side, neither Hamas nor Netanyahu, is proving amenable to compromise,” the diplomat said. “You see [Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN] and [President JOE BIDEN] constantly trying to pour water on this fire for a while, but then it flames up again, and in many instances, it's Netanyahu lighting the match."
| | | | During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more. | | | | | | | | WHITE HOUSE DEFENDS GORDON: White House officials are defending PHIL GORDON, Vice President KAMALA HARRIS’ top national security adviser, in the face of Republican allegations that he had improper ties to Iran, our own ERIN BANCO writes in. Gordon, an experienced diplomat known for his deep knowledge of Europe and the Middle East, has recently been called out by Republican lawmakers for having interactions with an expert affiliated with an initiative reported to have potentially inappropriate links to Iran’s foreign ministry. Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark) and Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-NY) sent a letter on July 31 to Harris’ office, asking the vice president to answer questions about Gordon’s relationship with ARIANE TABATABAI, a Pentagon official and a reported founder of the Iran Experts Initiative. The Semafor and Iran International news organizations have reported on a trove of documents that appear to suggest Iran used the network of experts to spread information about its stances on issues such as nuclear talks with the U.S. and other countries. One of its strategies was reportedly to have its members publish opinion pieces supporting Iran’s positions on certain policy matters. The Biden administration’s special envoy for Iran, ROB MALLEY, was placed on leave last year after his security clearance was suspended, raising questions among Iran hawks about his communications with Tehran. As of May, the FBI was probing whether Malley mishandled classified information. Malley frequently interacted with some members of the Iran Experts Initiative, Semafor previously reported. The Iran experts named in the Semafor and Iran International stories have vehemently denied any wrongdoing, saying the articles were full of inaccuracies and often lacked critical context, such as the diplomatic realities between the U.S. and Iran during the period in question. Organizations such as the International Crisis Group have come to their defense. “Dr. Tabatabai was thoroughly and properly vetted as a condition of her employment with the Department of Defense. We are honored to have her serve,” the Pentagon told Semafor when it published its story. In their letter, the lawmakers said they raised questions about why Gordon had chosen to co-author opinion pieces with Tabatabai and pointed to his association with other organizations that deal with Iranian issues. In one of those articles, published in The New York Times in 2020, Gordon and Tabatabai criticized the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, saying it only added to the likelihood that Iran would develop a nuclear weapon. It advocated that Trump de-escalate tensions with Tehran. “They’re really grasping on this one,” a senior administration official said, adding that Gordon did publish pieces with Tabatabai but they were “focused on the need to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.” The official said Gordon has a top-secret security clearance, which is granted only after a thorough investigation and is regularly updated. “The attacks on Phil Gordon are absurd and have no basis in reality,” National Security Council Acting Spokesperson SEAN SAVETT said. “Dr. Gordon has played an important role in bipartisan efforts to stand up to the challenges posed by Iran’s autocratic regime, to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and to keep America and our allies safe.” FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — USAID HEADS TO THE DR: Top officials at the U.S. Agency for International Development are heading to the Dominican Republic this week — and no, it’s not to enjoy the white sand beaches of Punta Cana. USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER will be in Santo Domingo today through Thursday, the agency told NatSec Daily. During her trip, she’ll meet with President LUIS ABINADER, members of the private sector, and women and youth leaders. She’ll also announce more than $45 million in funding for initiatives around human rights, health, climate change, disaster readiness and economic growth. The trip comes as Santo Domingo and Washington deepen ties and the Dominican Republic positions itself as a hub for nearshoring investments in high-tech and advanced manufacturing. NEW ELECTIONS FOR BANGLADESH: Bangladeshi President MOHAMMED SHAHABUDDIN dissolved the country’s parliament today, setting Bangladesh on a path to hold new elections after Prime Minister SHEIKH HASINA resigned and fled the country, per Associated Press’ JULHAS ALAM and SHEIKH SAALIQ. MOHAMMAD YUNUS, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate and founder of the pioneering microfinance provider Grameen Bank, was also named as the country’s caretaker leader until elections could be held, The New York Times’ SAIF HASNAT and ANUPREETA DAS report. International pressure is growing on Dhaka to organize free and fair elections promptly after decades of increased authoritarianism under Hasina. Senate Foreign Relations Chair BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) said “We celebrate the renewed opportunity for Bangladesh to restore a democracy based on its constitutional principles.” Blast from the past: Does Bangladesh’s PM still believe in democracy? By our own NAHAL TOOSI, ALEXANDER WARD and LAWRENCE UKENYE IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Commanding, Controlling and Connecting the Battlespace
Large volumes of data are only as good as your ability to turn them into action. DIAMONDShield™ uses AI to analyze data and save seconds when seconds count. Learn more. | | | | | DEMOCRATS WALTZ TO WALZ: Harris picked Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ as her running mate, and his record on Israel is making lots of different corners of the Democratic Party happy. Democratic Majority for Israel, a group that looks to elect pro-Israel Democrats, praised the choice of Walz as a “steadfast supporter of the pro-Israel community in the state of Minnesota” and pointed to his record of support for Israel in Congress. Rep. DEBBIE WASSERMAN SCHULTZ (D-Fla.), a former chair of the Democratic National Committee and staunch supporter of Israel in Congress, said in a statement that Walz “represents Jewish values” and added that he is a “steadfast ally of Israel.” But Walz also earned support from some “uncommitted” Democrats for taking a more empathetic approach to their concerns about Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza. Clips of a March CNN appearance where he called the situation in Gaza “intolerable” and urged Democrats to “listen to what they're saying” gained traction on X among some critics of U.S. support for Israel. Our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and Eric dove into Walz’s military record and how Walz could help the Democratic ticket make the case that they’re the party that can best protect U.S. national security. Blast from the past: POLITICO Pro Q&A with Rep. Tim Walz by Connor
| | HACKERS DESCEND ON VEGAS: Hackers the land over are coming into Las Vegas this week for the Black Hat and DEF CON conferences, and our colleagues at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) have the definitive guide to the week’s activities. The conference will feature an AI summit with remarks from Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director JEN EASTERLY. Researchers will also be presenting findings about vulnerabilities in everything from electric vehicles to voting machines. RUSSIAN DISINFO IN PARIS: Social media bots linked to Russian disinformation groups are amplifying videos and posts critical of the 2024 Paris Olympics Games, the Associated Press’ DAVID KLEPPER reports. In recent days, the bots have been repeatedly posting a music video generated by artificial intelligence that taunts French President EMMANUEL MACRON and portrays Paris in a negative light. “Paris, Paris, 1-2-3, go to Seine and make a pee,” an AI-enhanced singer declares in the clip.
| | | |   | | | | | IRAQ ROCKET ATTACK: Several American troops were injured in a rocket attack against the Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq as tensions rise in the region, our own PAUL McLEARY reports. A retaliatory U.S. counterstrike hit 85 targets across Iraq and Syria and more American air defenses are being deployed to the region. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — TRUMP’S FOREIGN FILMS: A recent ad from the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. features footage of an F-18 Hornet that appears to be supplied by a Russian stock photo company and may have been generated by AI, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN writes in. The footage appeared in an ad called “American Strength 2” and images of the warplane depicted are sold on iStock.com produced by a company called Treedeo, whose founder and CEO ALEXANDR IGNATIEV is based in Russia. The ad shows the F-18 in motion, footage that would have been virtually impossible for a Russian stock photo company to produce without using AI. The super PAC’s ads have also featured stock imagery from numerous other foreign countries. A new ad on inflation uses stock footage of a supermarket from an Estonian company, which also supplied footage for an ad on how Trump would make summers more affordable. An ad on how Trump will help people save money uses footage from a stock footage company that iStock says is based in Thailand, while another spot uses footage called “Asian family running on the beach at sunset with happy emotion” from a user also based in that southeast Asian country. An ad featuring an American flag with the text “American made, made possible. Vote Donald Trump” originates from the stock image broker BlackBoxGuild, which is based in Ontario, Canada, according to the end of their site’s Terms of Service. MAGA Inc. spokesperson ALEX PFEIFFER said in a statement: “Politico is owned by Germany-based foreign company Axel Springer, so what’s your point? The ads effectively and accurately illustrate the simple decision in front of every American voter: KAMALA HARRIS delivers chaos and poverty, President Trump delivers peace and prosperity.” He also pointed to NBC News and USA Today stories in the last few years that also used the same stock footage. The stock photo companies didn’t respond to requests for comment or could not be reached.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — A NEW PUSH FOR AUSTIN TICE: A bipartisan group of Senators wants the Biden administration to renew its focus on freeing freelance journalist AUSTIN TICE, who disappeared over a decade ago after arriving at a checkpoint in Damascus, Syria. The letter, signed by 36 Democrats and Republicans, was led by Sens. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) and JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas). In the letter, the Senators called for more information about Tice’s whereabouts and progress made in securing his release from the custody of the Syrian government. In an interview, Van Hollen told NatSec Daily that last week’s prisoner swap that saw the release of Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH, Radio Free Europe/Radio Free Liberty reporter ALSU KURMASHEVA and ex-Marine PAUL WHELAN shows that tough exchanges are still possible. The Biden administration, he added, should capitalize on this moment. “We think this is a moment to make a major push to secure his release. And I do believe that this most recent release of American prisoners provides momentum,” Van Hollen said. He added that the administration shouldn’t be discouraged by the ongoing flashpoints in the Middle East, pointing to the war in Ukraine. “Even in the midst of that conflict, the United States, Russia and our allied countries were able to put together this major agreement to secure the release of Americans,” he continued. “So my view is, even though the situation in the Middle East is boiling, there's still an opportunity to secure Austin's relief. That conflict should not get in the way of efforts to bring him home.”
| | | CHINA’S PRO-DEMOCRACY SPY: A federal jury in New York convicted SHUJUN WANG of pretending to be a Chinese pro-democracy activist to feed information to Beijing about real Chinese dissidents. Wang lived in Queens, New York as a scholar who founded a pro-democracy organization, but prosecutors claimed he did so in order to get closer to other Chinese democracy activists in the region. BREON PEACE, the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of New York, said in a press release announcing the conviction that the “indictment could have been the plot of a spy novel, but the evidence is shockingly real that the defendant was a secret agent for the Chinese government.”
| | — PENNY PRITZKER stepped down as U.S. special representative for Ukraine’s economic recovery, as her term is limited by law to one year. Deputy Secretary of State RICHARD VERMA will assume her duties, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said today. — YAHYA SINWAR will assume leadership of Hamas in the wake of Haniyeh’s assassination, the militant group announced today. Sinwar previously led Hamas in the Gaza Strip. — KEVIN LAWSON is now a senior policy adviser at the U.S. Mission to the United Nations’ D.C. office. He most recently was senior foreign policy adviser to Sen. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.) and has previously worked for the State Department. — ANDREW MOORE and GARY CORN have joined the Center for a New American Security as adjunct senior fellows. Moore is chief of staff to former Google CEO ERIC SCHMIDT and is a State Department alum, and Corn is the director of the Technology, Law & Security Program at the American University Washington College of Law.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: DIAMONDShield™ is the integrator that enables joint all domain operations
Lockheed Martin is advancing joint all-domain command and control with DIAMONDShield™, the 21st Century Security® technology that uses AI to analyze the battlespace, saving time when it matters the most. Learn more. | | | | | — CAITLIN DICKERSON, The Atlantic: Seventy miles in hell — ALI RIAZ, Foreign Affairs: The remarkable downfall of Bangladesh’s Iron Lady — BRIANNA ROSEN, War on the Rocks: How to make military AI governance more robust
| | — The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: Navigating global challenges. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: The future of the U.S.-Australia alliance. — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: Discussion about a new report “A Russia Without Russians? Putin's Disastrous Demographics,” focusing on the impact of the Kremlin's war on Ukraine. — The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 11 a.m.: Mapping Iranian external operations worldwide. — Washington Post Live, 11:30 a.m.: The Mideast Crisis, Russia prisoner swap, and U.S. foreign policy, featuring former Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 12 p.m.: The Middle East on the cusp of a regional war. — The Competitive Enterprise Institute, 12:30 p.m.: A global antitrust paradox? — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: Takeaways from the 2024 International AIDS Conference. Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who is also spreading disinformation about the Olympics. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who is helping us fact-check Rosie’s slander. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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