Tuesday, August 6, 2024

A Walz in the park

And the markets rebound a little bit
 
   
     
   
 
AUGUST 6, 2024
   

Hey y’all,

First and foremost, the markets seem to be rebounding a little this morning. Nothing too exciting, but at least the bleeding has stopped… for the moment.

NVDA is the big winner so far, as it exploded higher in pre-market trading and has held those levels since, up nearly 3% on the day.
 
 

Good news for the markets in the short term. What about the longer-term picture?

Be warned: going further isn’t for the faint of heart…

Because I talked to Jeffry Turnmire yesterday, and he gave a pretty bleak outlook on where we might head next. 

For those who don’t know, Jeffry has a knack for predicting the future of the market. Like calling the top of Bitcoin several years ago, predicting too many SPY reversals to count, and more…

So this certainly wasn’t a “fun” read from him…
 
 

Here’s what he said: “Today isn't a crash.  Today is a market route.  I have been warning of a day like today for a while.  We went an extra long time without one and I expected this and it went to EXACTLY the place I market on the chart last week pre-FOMC.”

“This move puts us in a very dangerous position.  We could in fact get a crash similar or worse than 2020 Covid crash.  800-1500 points down on SPX in a few days. We likely find some support here for a few days/weeks and then possibly get a bigger down if we bounce down off resistance.  If we can break through resistance we may make a new all-time high before we get the crash.  The "crash" is coming... just a matter or how long before we get it.  Today isn't it.”
 
 
Now, I’m a little more optimistic than Jeffry overall, and some of our other experts are as well. But I’ve known him far too long and seen too many of his “crazy” predictions come true to write off what he’s saying.

I do think we’ll see a bigger, more extended move down at some point. Whether that looks like a “crash” or more of a longer-term “correction” remains to be seen. 

But I don’t think that’s what is happening right now. I still think yesterday was a big overreaction to a combination of bad headlines including the jobs report and Berkshire’s big AAPL fire sale. And now that’s gotten out of the market and things have settled down.
 
 
Nate’s Urgent State of the Market Briefing…
 
 
 

Hey everyone! 

If you’re in the ProsperityPub Telegram, you probably saw this morning that Nate took over MY home office for his State-of-the-Market briefing…

But after yesterday’s chaos, I wanted to make sure he had the best setup to get this to you.

Catch the replay now to see his five big predictions for the market, his plans for the future, and how you can join HIM inside Tucci Trading HQ! 
 
Now, from a personal perspective, the most interesting news of the day is Vice President Kamala Harris’s choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her own Vice Presidential pick. 
 
 
And just to be totally clear, much of the rest of this issue will be opinion-based political analysis. So if that’s not your jam, I don’t blame you! 

If you remember from past issues, I live and breathe politics, studied it in college, interned in Congress, etc. So this stuff fascinates me. But I haven’t been as surprised by a VP pick since at least Sarah Palin.

Walz was, with respect, a relative nobody before his name entered the VP discussion. He’s a second-term Democratic governor in Minnesota who was a long-serving Congressman before that. 

But behind the friendly, Midwest demeanor, Walz is also a far-left progressive. He was governor of Minnesota during what the Left would call protests and the Right would call riots that broke out after the death of George Floyd while he was in police custody in 2020. 

Whatever your perspective on the protests, the Walz pick opens up a new vein of attack from Republicans, who will now be able to weaponize dystopian images like this one in an attempt to pin them on the shared governance of Harris (who was an outspoken supporter of the protests herself) and Walz: 
 
 
While there will be some attempts by the media and those friendly to the Democratic ticket to portray Harris and Walz as centrists or even moderates (see below), there is no question that this is the most progressive / far Left (depending on your perspective) ticket in American history.
 
 
Whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing is completely up to you. From a political perspective, it is shocking that Harris didn’t pick Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. He is young. He is energetic. He is charismatic. He is a popular leader in a critical swing state without which Trump cannot win the election. He could also be a future presidential candidate for the Democrats.

Walz is none of those things. But Shapiro’s Jewish heritage probably was the deciding factor here. Harris was unwilling to stand against the radically anti-Israel wing of the Democratic Party and choose a Jewish running-mate, so Walz gets the nod. 

It is not a move that makes political sense, but perhaps the Harris campaign is so encouraged by her jump in recent polling that they are already thinking past the election and making a pick based on her future governing relationship with Walz. 

Trump did the same with his pick of JD Vance, who is not a politically convenient choice. At the time, thinking he had the election all but wrapped up against President Biden, he chose a candidate to build a legacy for himself and a future for the Republican party. If you could get Trump to take truth serum (if any truth serum would even be strong enough) he would probably admit to you that, given the changes in the election, he’d like to have a do-over.
 
 
Will Harris find herself in the same position in a few weeks? Who knows. But given that her campaign has largely tried to paint her as a tough-on-crime moderate prosecutor type, the pick of Walz is particularly shocking. 

As for the markets, though, this pick makes no difference at all. As I’ve discussed before, I think Wall Street really won’t be too impacted by either outcome of the election. Wall Street hates uncertainty, and there is no uncertainty with effectively two incumbents running against one another. 

It’s one of the most fascinating elections of our lifetime, and there’s a shock around every corner. I’m sure we’re not done with them. But if you enjoy this kind of content, let me know, and I’ll keep bringing more of it! 

Hope you have a great one,

Stephen Ground
Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub
 
   
 
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