| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy answers questions after delivering remarks at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute as leaders from all member NATO states gather for the 75th NATO Summit on July 9, 2024, in Washington, DC. | Bonnie Cash/Getty Images | With help from Erin Banco, Joe Gould, Miles J. Herszenhorn, Daniel Lippman and Lee Hudson Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric The White House worked for months leading up to the NATO Summit with one goal in mind: Make Ukraine Happy Again. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY stomped out of last year’s gathering in Vilnius, fuming that NATO’s failure to extend his country an invitation to join the alliance was “absurd.” While Kyiv had just moved closer to membership than ever, Zelenskyy’s explosion led critics to label the gathering a failure. President JOE BIDEN and his team were desperate to avoid a similar blowup this year, especially with the summit in their own backyard and with both men meeting on Thursday. Just after Biden in April signed $60 billion in more military aid for Ukraine, the president gathered top members and told them to start preparing for the NATO Summit, two senior administration officials said. Ukraine would not get membership, just like in Vilnius, but it would depart Washington with a series of military, diplomatic, economic and technological packages that would serve as a “bridge” to eventual accession. That, Biden hoped, would avoid another breakdown in the relationship. “We are looking for strong language,” ANDRIY YERMAK, chief of Zelenskyy’s office and arguably Ukraine’s second-most powerful man, told POLITICO on Tuesday before the deliverables were announced. But, he added, “It would be great if somebody at this summit would say Ukraine could be invited.” Part of Biden’s plan included boosting Ukraine’s defensive military capabilities by authorizing seven security assistance packages, many of which featured air-defense interceptors to shoot down Russian rockets aimed at Ukrainian cities. Biden also secretly authorized Ukraine’s use of American-provided weapons just over the border in Russia, a move that analysts say helped stem the tide of Moscow’s offensive in the north. But the diplomatic outreach would be the most crucial aspect –– and the most sensitive. Ukraine was still smarting from the Vilnius summit and telling every alliance member that a NATO invitation was a must. Anything short of that would not be enough. Key European allies, namely the United Kingdom and France, agreed with Ukraine’s assessment and pushed for that outcome. Germany, meanwhile, feared what admitting Ukraine into the alliance now would mean, especially since Russian troops had already invaded the country. That would not unreasonably lead some in the Kremlin to conclude NATO was directly at war with Russia. Biden generally agreed with that concern and let Zelenskyy know it during a June 7 meeting in Paris, telling him that Ukraine would not receive the much-desired invitation to NATO in Washington. But, Biden continued, Ukraine would not leave empty-handed. One of the deliverables would include a “Ukraine Compact,” putting all of Ukraine’s bilateral security agreements into a long-term commitment package. Kyiv would also get a boost to its air-defense capabilities and a concrete announcement on F-16 fighter jets, allowing Ukraine to better control the skies above it. Six days later at the G7 in Italy, both leaders signed a bilateral security agreement that included defense-industrial production incentives and greater coordination in the fight against Russia. At a joint press conference, Zelenskyy dubbed the package “the strongest agreement between Ukraine and the U.S. since our independence.” Coordination between the U.S. and Ukraine continued on a daily basis well into July, with national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and Yermak finalizing summit deliverables. But Yermak had one big request: the joint declaration had to say that Ukraine’s path to NATO accession was “irreversible.” Sullivan took that idea to Biden, and Biden agreed. Not everyone is pleased with what Ukraine will get in Washington. French President EMMANUEL MACRON said Tuesday that the U.S. and Germany are the main opponents to Ukraine joining NATO. Speaking of last year’s Vilnius summit, Macron continued that "Ukrainians were quite annoyed when they concluded that the door was open, but not that much, and I think the scenario for the Washington summit is the same.” Of course, Ukraine isn’t on an unalterable glide path to NATO membership. It could fail to enact requisite democratic reforms, or a new administration — say, one led by former President DONALD TRUMP — might reject the idea of expanding the alliance. But for now, the immediate goal of keeping Ukraine happy seems to have worked. Read: NATO to back Ukraine’s irreversible path, name China a ‘decisive enabler’ in Russia’s war by our own STUART LAU
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — PUTIN’S NATO PLAN: Senior European and U.S. intelligence officials have gathered information that suggests Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN wants to take the attention away from the NATO summit by launching some kind of aggressive military or cyberattack this week, according to a senior NATO official. As our own ERIN BANCO writes in, the intelligence suggests there could be an attack in Ukraine or in neighboring European countries, the official said. Officials also believe the Russian missile that hit the children’s hospital in Kyiv was part of an effort by Moscow to distract from the meeting in Washington. SOME BOMBS UNPAUSED: The U.S. will begin shipping 500-pound bombs to Israel, which were previously delayed due to humanitarian concerns, American officials told The Wall Street Journal’s NANCY YOUSSEF and JARED MALSIN. The weapons “are in the process of being shipped” and could arrive within weeks, while 2,000-pound bombs, which were meant to be part of the shipment are still delayed, an administration official told WSJ. Axios previously reported that part of the bomb shipment would be unpaused at some point. In May, the Biden administration paused the shipment of bombs over concerns that they could be used in the southern Gazan city Rafah, where over a million Palestinians were sheltering.“ Our main concern had been and remains the potential use of 2,000-pound bombs in Rafah and elsewhere in Gaza,” a U.S. official told the WSJ. “Because our concern was not about the 500-pound bombs, those are moving forward as part of the usual process.” EVACUATE GAZA CITY: Israel ordered Palestinians to leave Gaza City and head south today as its military continues a fresh offensive across the northern, southern and center parts of the territory, The Associated Press’ WAFAA SHURAFA and SAMY MAGDY report. While visiting central Gaza today, Lt. Gen. HERZI HALEVI said troops were in several parts of the territory “to carry out a very important mission: pressure. We will continue operating to bring home the hostages.” The attacks come as Israeli officials meet with American, Egyptian and Qatari negotiators today in Doha to push for a cease-fire deal. Israel and the U.S. agree that a deal is needed but obstacles remain, Israel's defense ministry said today after DefMin YOAV GALLANT met White House Middle East envoy BRETT MCGURK, per Reuters’ STEVE SCHEER and CHRISTIAN LOWE. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — SHADOWING CHINA: A Coast Guard national security cutter shadowed four Chinese ships through Alaskan waters over the weekend, the service is expected to announce today, our own JOE GOULD writes in. On Saturday afternoon, the Kimball observed the China naval task group — which included a Fuchi-class oiler, a Jiangkai II-class guided-missile frigate, a Luyang III-class destroyer and a Renhai-class guided missile cruiser — according to a timeline obtained by NatSecDaily. The cutter and Chinese ships stayed within three to five nautical miles of one another before the Kimball lost visual contact with them and broke off on Sunday night. THE HOUTHIS STRIKE BACK: Yemen’s Houthi rebels resumed their strikes on foreign vessels today, launching a barrage against a ship in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, according to the Associated Press’ MICHAEL WAKIN. The Iran-backed proxy halted attacks for about a week and a half, but it is believed they are regrouping ahead of the arrival of a new U.S. aircraft in the region. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Advancing NATO deterrence with 21st Century Security®
NATO deterrence is strongest when allies work as one force. Lockheed Martin enables NATO interoperability with defense tech solutions that connect allies across domains. Learn more. | | | | | A LITERAL SHITSTORM: North Korea’s excrement-filled balloons, missile launches and GPS spoofing are making it difficult for aircraft to operate in South Korean airspace, according to Reuters’ LISA BARRINGTON. Pyongyang launched three waves of balloons filled with manure and trash into North Korea, some of which landed on the tarmac at Incheon airport and shut down operations for several hours. But the balloons also served to distract from bouts of aviation navigation interference as North Korea jammed GPS equipment for commercial aircraft. OPSGROUP, an organization that shares flight risk information, said in a June bulletin that “airspace safety is gradually worsening.” While there “are no official airspace warnings for South Korea,” the group said “the risk situation seems to be getting worse." The North Korean disruptions add to the already tenuous airspace landscape over the Korean peninsula. Airlines already avoid North Korean airspace and GPS spoofing has occasionally caused aircraft to veer into unauthorized territory. North Korea has also threatened to shoot down anything resembling a reconnaissance plane operating over its territory. Read: How Europe’s rocket program lost big to Elon Musk: The inside story by our own JOSHUA POSANER
| | UKRAINE’S F-16 SUMMER: NATO countries announced that Ukraine is receiving deliveries of F-16 jets that should allow Ukraine to take the skies as early as this summer, our own NAHAL TOOSI and LEE HUDSON report. The U.S., Denmark and the Netherlands announced during the NATO Summit in Washington on Wednesday that the two latter countries had sent over the aircraft, though they did not say how many. The Belgians are also getting in on the deliveries — Belgian Prime Minister ALEXANDER DE CROO announced that his country would provide Ukraine with 30 F-16 jets for exclusive use in Ukrainian airspace. Norway and the three aforementioned countries had previously committed to delivering jets this summer. But Ukraine warns that it needs a lot of jets to beat back Russia’s air dominance. Zelenskyy said Tuesday during a side event that “because we are defending, we need 128” F-16 jets to beat back Russia’s 300. Read: UK’s Starmer must boost defense spending by 2030, former army head says by our own ANNE MCELVOY and PETER SNOWDON
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | MOODY ABOUT MODI: Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI’s decision to visit Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN in Moscow on the eve of the NATO summit is making some lawmakers question U.S. ties to New Delhi, our own MILES J. HERSZENHORN writes in. Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) slammed the meeting between the leaders, calling it “very disappointing and unnerving.” Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Pa.) also criticized Modi’s efforts to further deepen the already close ties between India and Russia. “Nothing good will come from that,” Fetterman said. Modi was photographed giving Putin a bear hug just one day after a lethal Russian airstrike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv. Biden had previously sought to improve relations between New Delhi and Washington, inviting Modi to the White House for a state visit last year. “It makes me reconsider what I’m willing to do to help India in the future,” Graham said. “There’s a price to be paid for this.”
| | LE PEN’S DC DRAGS: French far-right leader MARINE LE PEN compared a planned protest from French leftist parties and their supporters in the wake of the country’s legislative elections to the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, our own GIORGIO LEALI reports. The leader of the National Party said supporters of leftist firebrand JEAN-LUC MÉLENCHON possess “factious attitudes as they call for Matignon [the French Prime Minister’s residence] to be taken by force, as far as we understand.” “It's their assault on the Capitol,” she continued. Le Pen’s sharp comments come as France faces political paralysis following Sunday’s second-round elections. The National Rally was expected to take an absolute majority, but left-leaning and centrist parties opted to strategically withdraw candidates from close races, leaving no party with a clear majority.
| | | |   | | | | | — JESSICA POWELL is joining Invariant as a director on the national security team. She previously was deputy chief of staff for Rep. STEVE WOMACK (R-Ark.) and oversaw his appropriations portfolio. — The Council on Foreign Relations tapped STEVEN LEVITSKY as a senior fellow for democracy. Levitsky is a professor of Latin American studies as well as government at Harvard University. — MARK BRUNNER has joined Psiquantum, a quantum computing company, to lead its public sector business. He was previously at Primer AI, where he served as president of Primer Federal. — JENNIFER O’CONNOR is joining Harvard University as its next general counsel. She was previously vice president of technology and information law and policy at Northrop Grumman.
| | — JAKE SULLIVAN, The New York Times: You can count on a strong NATO — HAMIDREZA AZIZI, Foreign Affairs: Iran’s new naval ambitions — The Editors, National Review: MIKE JOHNSON’s strong case for American strength— JAKE SULLIVAN, The New York Times: You can count on a strong NATO — HAMIDREZA AZIZI, Foreign Affairs: Iran’s new naval ambitions — The Editors, National Review: MIKE JOHNSON’s strong case for American strength
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Advancing NATO deterrence with 21st Century Security®
For 75 years, Lockheed Martin has been a trusted partner to NATO, keeping allies ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: South China Sea Conference. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: What happened at the NATO summit? — The Arab Center, 10 a.m.: The Looming Israel-Hezbollah War: Prospects, deterrence, and impacts. — Inter-American Dialogue, 11 a.m.: Exploring the roots and realities of criminal violence in Ecuador. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 12 p.m.: Air and missile defense in the high north. — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 1 p.m.: Book discussion about “In the Shadows: True Stories of High-Stakes Negotiations to Free Americans Captured Abroad.” — Washington Post Live, 2:30 p.m.: NATO, Trump and the latest in Ukraine. — Center for a New American Security, 6:45 p.m.: For freedom and for peace, NATO 75. Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who never deserves to be happy again. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who puts a smile on everyone’s face. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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