Tuesday, June 11, 2024

‘We have been clear’ … or have you?

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
Jun 11, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Matt Berg, Krystal Campos and Eric Bazail-Eimil

President Joe Biden appears at the right of a POLITICO illustration. To his left are national security spokespeople John Kirby, Matthew Miller and Sabrina Singh.

With help from Nahal Toosi, Miles Herszenhorn, Connor O’Brien and Maggie Miller

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The Biden administration must have a different definition of “clear” than reporters.

As journalists go toe-to-toe with administration spokespersons, asking tough questions on national security in particular, those officials at the podiums repeatedly brush off the questions by turning to one common phrase: “We have been clear.”

But they often haven’t been clear — after all, why would the reporters be asking? Still, as this video compilation by POLITICO shows, spokespersons from the White House to the Pentagon to the State Department seem addicted to various versions of that phrase.

“‘We have been clear’ is to a Biden spox what the phrase ‘fugetaboutit’ is to Lefty from Donnie Brasco,” JOSH ROGIN, a longtime Washington Post columnist who covers foreign policy, told NatSec Daily. “It’s a catchall for dodging legitimate questions about failed or failing policies.”

Our frustration turned to curiosity, so we asked some former spokespeople about the strategy behind using the phrase. Is it to confuse journalists? To psychologically trick them into thinking they’re the ones who don’t know what’s going on?

Administration spokespeople have a set of “media tips and tricks” that include pivot lines and ways to take back the narrative when the questioning doesn’t go where they want it to go, HALA RHARRIT, a former Arab-language spokesperson in the State Department who resigned in protest over U.S. policy toward Israel in April, told NatSec Daily. Insisting the administration has “been clear” is an attempt to manage a policy that may be unpopular, or at least offer flexibility so that the administration isn’t pigeonholed by specifics.

For example, the administration says it has been clear in conversations with Israel that Israel needs to limit civilian casualties, “but we actually have never taken steps to make that happen,” such as broadly withholding weapons shipments to Israel, Rharrit said.

“Saying ‘we have been clear’ is an attempt to be a show of force, pretending like we are doing something,” she added. “But in reality, it is just words.”

Another example: What exactly is President JOE BIDEN’s “red line” in the southern city of Rafah in Gaza, which Israel has already invaded and caused some 1 million people to flee? At what point does Israel’s military operation in the city go too far? Even Democrats have been scratching their heads.

“The president has been very clear and very direct about what our expectations are for Israeli operations in Rafah,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters late last month. The same day, State spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER also told reporters, “We have made clear what our policy is with respect to Rafah. We do not want to see major military operations take place there.”

While reporters want detailed answers, the job of a spokesperson is a lot harder than it looks, MORGAN ORTAGUS, a former State spokesperson in the Trump administration, told NatSec Daily. And the blame shouldn’t always be put on the people at the podium.

“It is challenging when you are asked to communicate a policy that is intentionally not clear,” Ortagus said. “Perhaps they're using that phrase to try and make it seem like they are being consistent.”

The White House and State didn’t respond to NatSec Daily’s request for comment. DOD deferred to the White House.

In fairness, even though this administration is fairly disciplined about staying on message, it’s not the first to use the whole “clear” thing.

“No, in fact, you haven’t been clear,” one reporter lashed back at then-State spokesperson VICTORIA NULAND in 2011 when she insisted the Obama administration had been so.

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The Inbox

GET TO PHASE ONE, ALREADY: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN appeared uncertain today that the three-phase cease-fire proposal between Israel and Hamas would ultimately lead to a permanent stop to fighting.

Asked about Hamas’ stance that it won’t agree to the deal unless Israel says it’ll allow a permanent cease-fire, Blinken explained that both sides need to get to phase one of the deal: “As long as those negotiations are ongoing, the ceasefire that would take place immediately would remain in place … And then we’ll have to see, but you’re not going to get to phase two, to an enduring cease-fire, unless you start with phase one.”

Blinken emphasized that Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU would agree to a deal when Hamas does, despite the Israeli leader’s continuing push for “total victory” in Gaza and hesitation to publicly endorse the proposal. There are also lingering questions about whether Hamas would approve a deal, after The Wall Journal’s SUMMER SAID and RORY JONES obtained audio messages Hamas leader YAHYA SINWAR sent to mediators.

“We have the Israelis right where we want them,” Sinwar said in a recent message. He called civilian deaths “necessary sacrifices.”

There was a glimmer of hope after the U.N. Security Council voted on Monday to back the three-phase cease-fire deal. Hamas accepted the outcome and said it’s ready for negotiations. But Qatari and Egyptian mediators haven’t received formal replies from both Hamas and Israel to the proposal, Reuters’ DAPHNE PSALEDAKIS and NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI report.

KHARKIV DETERRENCE: Ukraine’s military has struck missile launch positions in Russia, which has helped reduce the number of attacks on Kharkiv, the city’s mayor told Reuters’ JOHN O'DONNELL.

Missile and drone strikes from Russia in the Kharkiv region still continue, Mayor IHOR TEREKHOV said, but the Biden administration allowing Ukraine to use U.S. weapons to strike inside Russia has helped bring relative “calm.”

Speaking about that policy change, “that is why maybe Kharkiv has ... this period of ... calm the last couple of weeks,” he told the outlet. “There were no great strikes as it was, for example, in May.”

HOUTHIS ON THE MARCH: U.S. intelligence assesses that Houthi militants in Yemen are working to provide Al-Shabaab with weapons, according to CNN’s KATIE BO LILLIS, KYLIE ATWOOD and NATASHA BERTRAND.

The move would be a major escalation in cooperation between the Iran-backed proxy and the Somali militant group, which both have posed major threats to shipping and trade in the Red Sea. U.S. intelligence along with African partners have been working to figure out if Iran is involved and whether weapons transfers have already occurred.

SCRUTINY FOR SUDAN: ICC prosecutor KARIM KHAN is homing in on alleged atrocities in Sudan’s Darfur region following a weekend attack on a hospital, according to the Associated Press’ MIKE CORDER.

Khan said in a statement that the international tribunal’s is indicating an “organized, systematic and a profound attack on human dignity” in the Darfur region by the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group. It follows a Sunday attack on a key hospital that saw fighters loot and shoot at the medical facility.

IN MEMORIAM: Malawian Vice President SAULOS CHILIMA and nine other government aides died in a plane crash yesterday, the southern African country’s President LAZARUS CHAKWERA announced in a live address on state television this morning.

IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil.

While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.

 

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ELECTION 2024

A DRAFT UNDER TRUMP? Trump’s former Defense Secretary CHRISTOPHER MILLER, who is believed to be a top contender for the job in a second Trump admin, said he’s open to making military service mandatory.

A national service requirement should be “strongly considered,” Miller told The Washington Post’s JULIANN VENTURA and JULIAN ANDREONE. It’s a “rite of passage” that would create a sense of “shared sacrifice” among young people in the United States, he added.

“It reinforces the bonds of civility,” Miller told the Post. “Why wouldn’t we give that a try?”

Under a program that would target high schoolers, potential service members would have their skills assessed to see what gaps in the military they could fill: “If we’re going to prepare for a great-power competition,” Miller said, “it’s helpful to have a baseline understanding of the pool of potential military service members and their specific aptitudes prior.”

Keystrokes

A LITTLE HELP FROM NATO FRIENDS: The Estonian government is advising France on how to defend against potential cyber threats to the upcoming Summer Olympics in Paris — and this isn’t the first time the Baltic nation has lended a hand in defending Olympics events.

TANEL SEPP, the Estonian ambassador at large for cyber diplomacy, told our own MAGGIE MILLER during a sitdown interview this week that “we’ve been talking to France for some time about these kinds of potential threats” to the upcoming Olympics. He pointed to NATO’s recent Locked Shields cyberattack exercise, in which France and Estonia teamed up, as a “hint” around Estonia’s help.

“Estonia was partnering with France, that was not a coincidence, and we were in the top three,” Sepp said.

He pointed to concerns in particular that Russia, linked to interference efforts at multiple Olympic Games in the past decade, might try to organize hacktivist groups to cause chaos in Paris. Groups including Microsoft and Google Cloud’s Mandiant warned in recent separate reports that Russia poses the highest threat to the upcoming games of any nation in cyberspace.

Sepp noted that his country, widely viewed as one of the most advanced nations in cybersecurity globally, also advised the Japanese government on countering cyber threats ahead of the 2021 Tokyo Summer Olympics.

The Complex

LESS HUNGARY, MORE UNITY: NATO allies didn’t seem to mind Hungary’s decision to snub today’s meeting of the Bucharest Nine as Latvian President EDGARS RINKEVICS touted the group’s more coordinated approach to Ukraine, per Reuters’ ANDRIUS SYTAS and JANIS LAIZANS.

Hungarian President TAMAS SULYOK canceled his trip to Riga for the Bucharest Nine summit, a group of countries on the alliance’s eastern flank, as Budapest’s close ties to Russia increasingly place it at odds with other Central European countries.

“The most important thing is that we have a more coordinated approach to the [NATO] Washington summit, when it comes to support for Ukraine, when it comes to strengthening the alliance’s capabilities,” Rinkevics said.

AZOV IN THE CLEAR: The State Department lifted a weapons ban on the Azov Brigade, a Ukrainian military unit whose members had ties to neo-Nazi movements, the Washington Post’s MICHAEL BIRNBAUM, SIOBHÁN O’GRADY and ALEX HORTON reports.

 

JOIN US ON 6/13 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF HEALTH CARE: As Congress and the White House work to strengthen health care affordability and access, innovative technologies and treatments are increasingly important for patient health and lower costs. What barriers are appearing as new tech emerges? Is the Medicare payment process keeping up with new technologies and procedures? Join us on June 13 as POLITICO convenes a panel of lawmakers, officials and experts to discuss what policy solutions could expand access to innovative therapies and tech. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
On the Hill

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — GEORGIA’S OPPOSITION: Georgia’s opposition is voicing support for a sanctions and trade incentives package being floated on Capitol Hill in response to the south Caucasus country’s controversial “foreign agent” law.

In a letter shared first with NatSec Daily, representatives from over a dozen Georgian opposition parties voiced support for the MEGOBARI bill introduced last month by Rep. JOE WILSON (R-S.C.), the chair of the bicameral Helsinki Commission. “Only such legislation that ensures swift action, imposing specific consequences for those that undermine Georgia’s democracy and engage in gross human rights violations, can have the potential of reversing this dangerous course,” the letter reads.

ND-NAY-NAY: The White House today outlined a variety of objections to defense policy legislation that's coming up for a vote on the House floor this week — but it isn't yet threatening a veto of the bill, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports (for Pros!).

The statement of administration policy, released by the White House Office of Management and Budget, still dings the House version of the National Defense Authorization Act for adding a second attack submarine, including a significant pay hike for junior enlisted troops and creating a military drone cadre, among other provisions.

Biden isn't yet saying he'd veto the Republican-led NDAA, which cleared the House Armed Services Committee in a 57-1 blowout vote.

That could change, however, if Republicans steer the bill to the right on the House floor and tack on a variety of conservative social policy provisions within the next day. The White House took a similar approach last year, avoiding a veto threat before the House NDAA was steered to the right.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — HERITAGE WEIGHS IN: Heritage Action sent a memo to offices on Capitol Hill outlining recommendations for this year’s defense policy bill, calling the bill too soft on China and bashing it for including policy that reimburses service members who travel to obtain abortions.

The bill includes modest procurement authorities for the ships, planes, munitions and other weapon systems that could be needed in the Indo-Pacific, the memo says. But it should “be strengthened to counter threats from Communist China by including language to curtail U.S. capital freely flowing into the country with few restrictions and financing China's military buildup.”

The advocacy group — a sister organization to the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank, home of the Project 2025 plan that’s prepping for another Trump administration — also reprimanded lawmakers for not including language in the bill that “would repeal the DoD memo illegally allowing special travel and paid leave for elective abortions.”

Heritage Action said it strongly supports the “Preventing Adversaries from Developing Critical Capabilities Act,” the DOD abortion memo repeal, the NATO contribution report and presidential certification and the Wuhan Institute of Virology ban.

Broadsides

TRACKING THE TALIBAN: The Middle East Institute released a new tracker today that details nearly 1,200 Taliban leaders and affiliates, giving information on their worldviews, intentions, tribal and factional ties, leadership styles, and stances on social and political issues.

BORDER BLUNDER: South Korean troops fired warning shots after a number of North Korean soldiers inadvertently crossed the military demarcation line that marks the border between the two countries, the Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM reports.

The brief confrontation, which the South Korean military revealed earlier today, occurred on Sunday, when 20-30 North Korean soldiers carrying pickaxes and other construction tools wandered about 160 feet into South Korean territory after they likely became lost.

 

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Transitions

— Ret. Gen. RAYMOND “TONY” THOMAS was appointed chair of the board of PDW, a drone technology company. Before his retirement, Thomas served as commander of U.S. Special Operations Command and commander of Joint Special Operations Command.

BRETT KLEIMAN is now comms director for Rep. BRITTANY PETTERSEN (D-Colo.). He previously was press secretary for Democrats on the Senate Homeland Security Committee and deputy press secretary for Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D-Ga.).

What to Read

ALEXANDER BURNS, POLITICO: Canada’s big worry: a U.S. civil war

SHALOM LIPNER, Foreign Policy: Israel is losing America

Center for Advanced Defense Studies: Buffered extraction

Tomorrow Today

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: International minerals diplomacy

House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Great power competition in the Western Hemisphere

The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: New hurdles for elections in Latin America

The Atlantic Council, 4:30 p.m.: Book discussion with author Adrian Karatnycky: “Battleground Ukraine: From Independence to the War with Russia”

Thanks to our editor, Grace Maalouf, who dodges our legitimate questions and fails at editing.

Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who clears everything up for us.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

A bigger perspective to the battlespace.

Seeing the whole picture is Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® – innovating defense tech to deliver answers exactly when and where they’re needed most. Learn more.

 
 

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