Tuesday, June 11, 2024

Don’t Make These 3 Common Mistakes Tomorrow

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"This trade avoids all three mistakes."

Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Nate Bear

Hey Gang,

If volatility means opportunity, then tomorrow should be time to milk that cash cow.

The CPI inflation data hits at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, followed by the Fed interest rate announcement at 2:00 p.m.

But, this isn't your run-of-the-mill data dump.

These double data drops are so rare, that most traders aren't prepared for them.

Sure, mega data days create trading bonanzas. However, one small slip can turn minor losses into catastrophes, and cause traders to make one of three common mistakes:

  1. Focusing on what's moving
  2. Thinking too short-term
  3. Taking too much risk

You see, people get caught up in FOMO and end up watching names they know will move like Super Micro Computers (SMCI), even if there isn't a setup there.

And they only look at what's happening this week rather than stepping back and looking at the bigger picture.

Plus, most traders don't account for the extra volatility in both directions and never adjust the number of shares they buy.

That's why I used the S.A.M. AI Scanner to help me quickly locate this setup in Nextracker Inc. (NXT):

 

This trade avoids all three mistakes while giving me a chance to score a big win even with the extra volatility.

I want to walk you through this setup so you can see how it works and why the S.A.M. AI Scanner is critical to its success.

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The Big Picture

Right now, everyone is focused on Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA).

I'm not going to tell you those aren't tradeable. In fact, Apple popped up on the S.A.M. AI Scanner on several short-term timeframes, which I turned into a trade that bet the stock would hit $200 (which it did today).

However, that's NOT where I saw the best opportunities.

When I'm looking for high quality setups, I want a stock that shows A+ on the S.A.M. AI Scanner across multiple timeframes.

An A+ setup means the stock has:

  • A squeeze where the Bollinger Bands have moved inside the Keltner Channel
  • Momentum has shifted higher
  • The 8-period exponential moving average is above the 21-period, which is above the 55-period.

An A+ setup on a single timeframe is enough for me to potentially trade.

Seeing A+ setups on multiple timeframes is like adding turbo boosters. With the extra volatility, I want EVERY advantage I can get.

Now normally, markets trade in a tight range in the days leading into the Fed announcement.

Lately, that hasn't been the case.

So, I need to work fast to catch these setups as they happen.

Trying to do this without the scanner is difficult to impossible.

Thankfully, the S.A.M. AI Scanner can pour through thousands of stocks in real-time, quickly identifying the best opportunities available.

This is critical when you're trying to look beyond just the well-known names.

There's no way I would have found Nextracker without the scanner.

And that played directly into the options expiration I chose.

Thinking Beyond Tomorrow

Because it's a smaller stock, Nextracker only has options with monthly expirations, not weekly.

If I wanted to buy call options, I had to look at ones that expire on June 21, July 19, or August 16.

Here's why I went with the July options.

Markets typically take a few days to digest big news. Two massive events in one day will probably take a week or more.

That knocks out the June 21 option.

Nextracker has earnings on July 24. I don't like to hold options through earnings if I can help it. So, that takes away the August 16 expiration.

The July 19 expiration hits the sweet spot between being long enough after tomorrow's data dump and short enough before the company's earnings announcement.

Plus, stocks often like to push higher into earnings, giving it another small edge.

If I try to predict where Nextracker will land by next Friday, I might get it right. The stock could move higher.

However, choosing the longer-dated expiration gives the setups enough time to work.

And at the end of the day, it all comes down to one key concept - risk.

Setting Up for Success

I like the July expiration doesn't reduce my potential reward by as much as it does my risk.

Trying to nail it to the day buying calls or puts doesn't work for me. I'm not looking to hold an option until expiration. I want to have some time left when I exit the trade.

However, I can make a small yet crucial tradeoff.

Instead of buying at or in-the-money options, I can go further out-of-the-money to get a little more bang for my buck when the stock moves.

Combined with the longer-dated expiration, I don't have to worry about the stock trading sideways. Sure, I may lose a little. But it would be a lot worse if I took the June options.

This kind of fine tuning maximizes my potential profits while minimizing risk.

Remember…

None of this is possible if you can't find the trades in time.

Many folks will go with something they feel is 'good enough.' That may work sometimes. But especially on days like tomorrow, you might as well set your cash on fire.

If you don't want to sit out tomorrow and would rather cash in on historic market action, then I suggest you start by checking out the S.A.M. AI Scanner.

Click here to get in before it's too late.

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