Wednesday, June 19, 2024

The House’s troublemakers are in trouble

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Jun 19, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

Presented by 

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

BREAKING OVERNIGHT — “Russia and North Korea sign partnership deal that appears to be the strongest since Cold War,” by AP’s Kim Tong-Hyung in Seoul: “The deal, which the leaders said covered areas including security, trade, investment, and cultural and humanitarian ties, could mark the strongest connection between Moscow and Pyongyang since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Both leaders described it as a major upgrade of their ties. …

“[North Korean leader KIM JONG UN] said that the deal was the ‘strongest ever treaty’ between the two nations, putting the relationship at the level of an alliance, and vowed full support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. [Russian President VLADIMIR] PUTIN said that it was a ‘[breakthrough] document’ reflecting shared desire to move relations to a higher level.”

Rep. Matt Gaetz speaks with guests at the U.S. Capitol.

Rep. Matt Gaetz's (R-Fla.) endorsement may not have as much sway as once thought. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

SOMEWHERE KEVIN McCARTHY SMILES — Just a few short months ago, Reps. MATT GAETZ and BOB GOOD appeared to be the tail wagging the House Republican dog. Gaetz (R-Fla.) led an unprecedented mutiny against then-speaker McCarthy, with help from Good (R-Va.), who then used his role as House Freedom Caucus chairman to pester his replacement, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON.

Now who’s wagging who?

Let’s start with Good, whose political career is hanging by a thread this morning — trailing primary challenger JOHN McGUIRE by 327 votes in unofficial election night returns.

McGuire — who was backed by McCarthy and, much more importantly, DONALD TRUMPclaimed victory last night, while Good was left pleading for patience: “We are doing what we can to ensure we have teams of observers and legal counsel to ensure all the votes are properly counted in the coming days.”

It’s still possible that late-arriving mail ballots and provisional ballots could swing in Good’s direction, and — to be perfectly clear — his showing is actually impressive given the steady attacks he took from Trump in recent weeks. Still, you know what they say about horseshoes and hand grenades, and a 327-vote margin is going to be hard for Good to make up. More from Ally Mutnick and Olivia Beavers

We’re also learning more this morning about the peril that Gaetz finds himself in, courtesy of the House Ethics Committee.

It seemed as though the wily Floridian had emerged from the cloud of suspicion surrounding his personal behavior over the years, much of it in the company of ex-bestie JOEL GREENBERG, who pleaded guilty to sex-trafficking a minor, among other federal offenses, and is now serving an 11-year prison sentence.

The feds, however, abandoned their probe into Gaetz earlier this year, and despite McCarthy’s innuendo, he appeared to be in no particular danger — that is, until Monday, when Gaetz delivered an out-of-nowhere attack on the House Ethics Committee, accusing it of “Soviet” tendencies and trying to “smear” him.

Turns out the committee has been busy. According to a detailed new report this morning from ABC News’ Will Steakin, panel investigators subpoenaed Venmo to obtain Gaetz’s transaction records and spoke to a half-dozen women about their interactions with him. One says Gaetz paid her for sex; others said they were paid to attend parties they knew would involve drugs and sex. Gaetz has previously denied any wrongdoing, and he did not respond to ABC’s requests for comment.

The women who spoke to House investigators were also involved in the abandoned DOJ probe, it’s worth noting. But the Ethics Committee can go where the feds won’t: While prosecutors need to prove crimes beyond a reasonable doubt, the panel has a wide berth to probe violations of the House standards of conduct, expose them and recommend sanctions ranging from admonishment to expulsion.

Fascinatingly, the committee isn’t being its usual quiet self in this instance. Considered something of a joke for decades, rarely taking action against members, the panel showed it had some teeth last year when it issued a damning report paving the way for the expulsion of Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.).

Then yesterday the panel issued a rare, extensive statement confirming that it was continuing to investigate allegations that Gaetz might have “engaged in sexual misconduct and illicit drug use, accepted improper gifts, dispensed special privileges and favors to individuals with whom he had a personal relationship, and sought to obstruct government investigations of his conduct.”

The probe, it said, has involved “more than a dozen witnesses … 25 subpoenas, and … thousands of pages of documents,” despite “difficulty in obtaining relevant information” from Gaetz and others involved. Some parts of the investigation have been dropped, the panel added, but there are also “additional allegations that merit review.”

Put simply, statements like this simply aren’t done. Typically, the Ethics Committee’s public statements are limited to a few short sentences announcing the establishment of an investigative subcommittee or the extension of a prior review. Only after it concludes its work will it (sometimes) release a full investigative report. Otherwise, it keeps quiet.

We’re not the only ones who found this odd.

“In my years on the committee I don't recall ever releasing a statement like that,” former House Ethics chair CHARLIE DENT (R-Pa.) — no Gaetz fan himself — told Playbook last night. “It strikes me as very unusual.”

“We didn't issue any of those when I was there,” Rep. KELLY ARMSTRONG (R-N.D.), a former panel member, added. “It's not common for Ethics to do that.”

So what gives? Both men had a similar theory: Armstrong noted that Gaetz “pops off on Ethics all the time,” accusing the committee of working at McCarthy’s behest and pursuing a vendetta against him. Perhaps the panel just wanted to bite back, defend their work and send a warning, he surmised.

Dent agreed that the panel’s leaders likely “wanted to set the record straight,” which they are free to do, he said, so long as the chair and ranking member concur. And, he added, they might want to send a message to members: “Think twice before castigating the committee’s work, which is done on a bipartisan basis.”

Good Wednesday morning, and Happy Juneteenth. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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(MORE) ABOUT LAST NIGHT ...

  • GOP Rep. TOM COLE cruised to renomination in Oklahoma’s 4th Congressional District, topping a crowded field in his bid for a 12th term this fall. The House Appropriations chair wrapped up more than 67% of the vote when the AP called the race, with right-wing challenger PAUL BONDAR — who spent about $5 million of his own money on the race — sitting at 22%. More from ABC’s Isabella Murray and Josh Margolin 
  • In Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, where Rep. JENNIFER WEXTON (D-Va.) is vacating her seat, Democratic state Sen. SUHAS SUBRAMANYAM — whom Wexton endorsed — clinched the Democratic nomination. Tech exec MIKE CLANCY won the Republican nomination in what is considered to be a decently safe Democratic seat. Subramanyam suggested in a statement that the general election would be easier to win than the crowded Democratic primary. More from WaPo’s Antonio Olivo and Michael Brice-Saddler 
  • EUGENE VINDMAN, the political newbie who enjoyed name recognition from his turn in the Trump impeachment saga, won the Democratic nomination for retiring Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER’s (D-Va.) 7th Congressional District. Vindman’s “message that democracy is at stake in 2024 proved more persuasive than the push of Democratic competitors … for governing experience,” NYT’s Jonathan Weisman writes. He’ll face Republican DERRICK ANDERSON, a former Army Green Beret.
  • HUNG CAO, a retired Navy captain, won the GOP nomination to take a run at unseating Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.), topping a field of five candidates thanks to a name-recognition and funding advantage. More from WaPo’s Jenna Portnoy 

POKING BIBI — “White House cancels meeting, scolds Netanyahu in protest over video,” by Axios’ Barak Ravid: “The White House canceled a high-level U.S.-Israel meeting on Iran that was scheduled for Thursday after Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU released a video on Tuesday claiming the U.S. was withholding military aid … Biden’s top advisers were enraged by the video — a message U.S. envoy AMOS HOCHSTEIN delivered personally to Netanyahu … Then the White House decided to go a step farther.”

POKING XI — “Nancy Pelosi Meets With Dalai Lama, Despite China’s Criticism,” by NYT’s Mujib Mashal and Hari Kumar in New Delhi: “The delegation, led by MICHAEL McCAUL, the Republican chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, arrived on Tuesday in the Himalayan town of Dharamsala, where the DALAI LAMA has lived since the 1960s. … China’s criticism of the visit was immediate and unsurprising.”

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The House and the Senate are out.

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will record two political radio interviews in the afternoon.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

Donald Trump thanks supporters after meeting with Senate Republicans at the National Republican Senatorial Committee offices in Washington, DC, June 13, 2024.

“I love Milwaukee,” Donald Trump said during a speech in Racine, Wisconsin, yesterday after previously reported comments indicated that he trashed the city. | Allison Bailey/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

1. ANNUS HORRIBILIS: Trump tried to make his reported comment calling Milwaukee “horrible” a thing of the past at a rally yesterday in Racine, Wisconsin, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Molly Beck, Rachel Hale and Hope Karnopp report. “I love Milwaukee,” he said to kick off the speech. Attendees said they largely didn’t mind, as Trump hit familiar themes of criticizing Biden on immigration and lying about the 2020 election. But a second Milwaukee kerfuffle arose at the same time: The NYT and ABC7 reported that Trump had originally planned to stay in Chicago during the GOP convention in Milwaukee, until reporters asked questions and he switched to Wisconsin.

2. HOW TRUMP WINS: “Trump’s Ground Game Is No Longer In Our Hearts,” by The Bulwark’s Marc Caputo: “For months, Trump was criticized over his small staff and the Republican National Committee’s layoffs and shuttered field offices. But since May, his campaign has quietly been in talks with more than three dozen conservative groups to outsource parts of its voter turnout operation. This would be a first-of-its kind effort. Cost: $100 million, at least. Total paid canvassers: 3,000, at least. The twist: it can all be financed with unlimited corporate dollars and untraceable dark money from political nonprofits that are otherwise off-limits to a federal campaign,” thanks to an FEC change sought by MARC ELIAS.

3. WHAT’S UP AT WAPO: Washington Post owner JEFF BEZOS finally weighed in on the swirling controversies facing the new leadership team, sending a rare missive to a select group of journalists at the organization stating his support for CEO WILL LEWIS and the newsroom at large. “You have my full commitment on maintaining the quality, ethics, and standards we all believe in,” Bezos wrote in the emailed statement, per WaPo’s Elahe Izadi. “In his note Tuesday, he directly referenced Lewis, who told staff in small meetings last week that, as publisher, he will never interfere with the journalism produced by the newsroom. ‘I know you’ve already heard this from Will,” Bezos wrote, ‘but I wanted to also weigh in directly: the journalistic standards and ethics at The Post will not change.’”

4. SCOTUS WATCH: “Amy Coney Barrett may be poised to split conservatives on the Supreme Court,” by Josh Gerstein: “A rift is emerging among the Supreme Court’s conservatives — and it could thwart the court’s recent march to expand gun rights. On one side is the court’s oldest and most conservative justice, CLARENCE THOMAS. On the other is its youngest member, AMY CONEY BARRETT. The question at the center of the spat may seem abstract: How should the court use ‘history and tradition’ to decide modern-day legal issues? But the answer may determine how the court resolves some of the biggest cases set to be released in the coming days.”

 

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5. UP FOR DEBATE: Tomorrow is the deadline for ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. to qualify for the CNN debate — and WaPo’s Nicole Markus and Meryl Kornfield find that he’s even further away from making it than he seems. Multiple state officials say Kennedy has not yet qualified for the ballot where he claims he has (a requirement along with polling) and can’t catch up by the CNN deadline, because it will take weeks to verify signatures he’s submitted. His campaign didn’t respond directly to questions about the discrepancies.

6. EXPLODING DEFICIT: The CBO massively raised its forecast for the budget deficit this year by 27 percent, now predicting that the U.S. will run nearly $2 trillion in the red, per Bloomberg’s Erik Wasson. That would be up from almost $1.7 trillion in 2023. Ukraine aid and student debt relief are among the new factors driving the deficit higher. “Tuesday’s projections continued to show the US heading for record levels of debt relative to GDP, and escalating interest costs — which for this year will exceed defense spending.”

7. BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: The DCCC laid out its first batch of fall TV ad reservations, putting down $28 million to try to flip the House to Democrats, WaPo’s Patrick Svitek scooped. The majority of this early reservation is focused on races in eight key states that will see tight races at the top of the ticket, with Arizona, Michigan and Ohio leading the way. The Dems are also investing in ads on streaming platforms like Hulu. The NRCC dismissed the DCCC plans as largely defensive moves.

8. DEMOCRACY WATCH: “What ‘democracy’ means to the post-Jan. 6 right,” by Semafor’s Dave Weigel: “Part of Turning Point Action’s work now is convincing voters who believe that democracy was smothered by anti-Trump forces that it can be resurrected and saved if they cast ballots. The other part — framing anything bad that happens to Trump as a threat to the democratic system — has already happened among the GOP base.”

Related read: “‘Lawyers, Judges, Technology’: Roger Stone Touts Plan for Trump Win in Secret Recording,” by Rolling Stone’s Nikki McCann Ramirez: “Liberal documentary filmmaker LAUREN WINDSOR’s team spoke to the ‘dirty trickster’ of right-wing politics at an event at Mar-a-Lago.”

9. IMMIGRATION FALLOUT: Biden’s pair of major policy moves on immigration yesterday “could be life-changing for hundreds of thousands of undocumented young adults, known as Dreamers,” NYT’s Miriam Jordan reports. It’s also huge for mixed-status families, which could give Biden a political boost among Latino voters, NBC’s Suzanne Gamboa reports. And as Americans’ views on immigration have shifted significantly to the right since Trump took office, this amounts to the first big win for immigrant advocates in years.

It’s also a move that could resonate politically in the presidential race: Biden’s team hopes it will refocus attention within the immigration debate on the family separations under Trump, which Biden’s surrogates will hammer hard in the coming days, Myah Ward reports.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Joe Biden and the Clintons pulled in $8.1 million at a Virginia fundraiser.

Tim Scott will woo billionaires at a policy summit today.

Pete Ricketts blocked Senate Dems’ effort to ban bump stocks.

David Byrne was on the Hill.

IN MEMORIAM — A memorial service for Howard Fineman was held at Temple Sinai on Monday morning. Speakers who delivered tributes to his life included Nick Fineman, Shuja Nawaz, Al Franken, Jill Abramson, John Yarmuth, Evan Thomas, Amy Dudley, Mark Whitaker, Chris Matthews and Meredith Fineman. Other attendees included Jonathan and Betsy Fischer Martin, Andrea Mitchell, Chuck Todd, Lynn Sweet, Kate Bennett, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), Tom DeFrank, Tony Goldwyn, Alex Gangitano, Summer Delaney, John and April McClain Delaney, Kathleen Matthews, Casey Dolan, Tina Urbanski, Michael Isikoff, Jonathan Alter, Danny Klaidman, Jon Meacham, Jane Mayar, Sam Stein, Judy Woodruff and Mandy Grunwald. The program 

OUT AND ABOUT — Tammy Haddad and Jessica Nigro co-hosted a Washington Women Technology Network election preview breakfast with Robert Costa at The House at 1229 yesterday. SPOTTED: Michelle Freeman, Jill Hazelbaker-Franks, Teresa Carlson, Maryam Mujica, Tina Anthony, Liz Johnson, Muriel Chase, Reema Dodin, Elizabeth Falcone, Betsy Fischer Martin, Julissa Marenco, Helen Milby, Sumi Somskanda, Alexandra Veitch, Crystal Carson, Orla Keane and Kathy O’Hearn.

— SPOTTED at a party for Bob Bauer’s new book, “The Unraveling” ($26), hosted by Jon Meacham, Dana Remus, Ben Ginsberg, Jack Goldsmith, Don Verrilli and Kathy Ruemmler at the Kennedy-Warren: Anita Dunn, Kate Berner, Kate Bedingfield, Andrea Mitchell, Jonathan Martin, Evan Ryan, Ian Sams, Jordan Finkelstein, Louisa Terrell, Eli Stokols, Ed Siskel, Michael Scherer, Alex Thompson, Karen Tumulty and Betsy Woodruff Swan.

MEDIA MOVE — Sam Stein is joining The Bulwark as managing editor, CNN’s Oliver Darcy scooped. He currently is deputy managing editor for politics at POLITICO and is a Daily Beast and HuffPost alum.

TRANSITIONS — Mariko Hirose and Rebecca Markert are joining Americans United for Separation of Church and State. Hirose will be chief program officer and previously was at the International Refugee Assistance Project. Markert will be VP and legal director and previously was at the Freedom from Religion Foundation. … Maria Langholz is now senior director at Arc Initiatives. She previously was comms director at Demand Progress. … Pete Mehravari is joining the International Intellectual Property Alliance as director of policy and legal affairs. He previously led the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office’s Global Intellectual Property Academy.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Mallory Rascher Cogar, deputy director of operations and chief clerk at the House Oversight Committee and a Trump DHS alum, and Michael Cogar, strategic comms lead at Booz Allen Hamilton and a Trump OPM alum, on Friday welcomed Ophelia Meadow Cogar, who came in at 6 lbs, 14 oz. PicAnother pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) and Josh Brecheen (R-Okla.) … Reuters’ Jeff MasonAnne GearanAlex Kisling of the Center for Strategic and International Studies … Marcus BrauchliAimee Strudwick Gilroy … POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt, Melissa Cooke and Laura Maggi Michael AkinChristina Ruffini … CyberScoop’s Tim StarksDavid Di MartinoPatrick Rooney Ben Castagnetti of Sen. Maria Cantwell’s (D-Wash.) office … Hodan OmaarMary Dalrymple of Eagle Hill Consulting … Mike Naple … former Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) (7-0) … former SEC Chair Mary Schapiro Michael RobbinsZac Rutherford of Rep. Diana Harshbarger’s (R-Tenn.) office … Michelle Ringuette … Actum’s Alexander Rauda Jennifer HazeltonEmily Hoffman of SoftBank Group … newlyweds Julia Palomino-Causey and Daniel Causey

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Corrections: Yesterday’s Playbook misstated Rep. Mary Peltola’s (D-Alaska) name. It also had an incorrect title for Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.). He is ranking member on House Foreign Affairs.

 

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