| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Lebanese civil defense firefighters douse a fire resulting from Israeli military shelling that swept over the fields and reached the houses, in the village of Shebaa, close to the southern Lebanese border with Israel on June 14, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters. | Rabih Daher/AFP via Getty Images | | With help from Miles Herszenhorn, Phelim Kine, Kyle Duggan, Lee Hudson and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Washington’s latest effort to temper tensions between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon faces steep hurdles as the risk of a wider war breaking out continues to grow. Today, U.S. special envoy AMOS HOCHSTEIN met with Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and several of his advisers in an attempt to calm the border conflict, which has been ongoing throughout Israel’s war in Gaza. He was also scheduled to meet with opposition politicians YAIR LAPID and BENNY GANTZ afterward, before heading to Lebanon on Tuesday for talks. Hochstein’s deployment underscores the White House’s desire to calm the situation on Lebanon’s border, even if a broader agreement to end hostilities can’t be reached, former U.S. special envoy DAVID SATTERFIELD said during a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace event today. The past week has been particularly tense. An Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon killed one of Hezbollah’s most senior members, leading the militants to fire hundreds of rockets toward Israel. Today, Israel killed another senior Hezbollah member. The number of projectiles being fired by Hezbollah and the reach of Israeli strikes are increasing, officials involved in negotiations and analysts told The Wall Street Journal, raising the risk of miscalculations that could spark a wider war. Asked about U.S. concerns about a wider war breaking out, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today: “If we weren't concerned about the possibility of escalation and a full-blown second front there, to the north, we wouldn't still be involved in such intense diplomacy. … We haven't seen Hezbollah jump in with two full feet here.” For now, it’s a “containable exchange,” Satterfield told former Middle East peace negotiator AARON DAVID MILLER during the CEIP event. “But the longer it goes on, the greater the risk of mistake or error.” A peace agreement between Israel and Hezbollah looks even less likely to come together after Netanyahu formally dissolved his war cabinet following Gantz’s departure earlier this month. The widely expected move made the prime minister more dependent on his ultranationalist allies, who want to keep fighting in Gaza to root out Hamas militants. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has said it will only stop attacking Israel when the war in Gaza ends. Still, U.S. and French negotiators are trying to push for some sort of agreement. “The jump-start of negotiations is not there precisely because Hezbollah wants to connect a cease-fire in the north with a cease-fire in Gaza, and the Israelis are saying no. So that’s the main obstacle down the road,” a French diplomatic official told the WSJ, adding that France is asking for a prolonged cease-fire in Gaza to make negotiations more likely. But if there is no cease-fire in Gaza, then Lebanon has to be addressed “on its own merits,” Satterfield said, without elaborating. “I do not see the inevitability of a war, either with Iran or with Hezbollah.” Another major obstacle for negotiations, some analysts believe, is that any deal made soon wouldn’t address core issues that could result in a permanent cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah — making it possible that Hezbollah would restart attacks on Israel down the line. “From the Israeli side, all this would do is buy a deceptive quiet — the same kind of quiet that existed on the Gaza border on Oct. 6,” DAVID DAOUD, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told NatSec Daily. “Returning to a status quo where a Sword of Damocles hangs over the heads of its citizens until its adversaries decide to attack is a non-starter.” And while the U.S. doesn’t want Israel to go to war in Lebanon, Netanyahu has signaled he is open to such an escalation. After all, he is facing pressure domestically: Shelving the conflict with Hezbollah until later would be a hard sell to some 60,000 displaced Israelis, who left their homes in northern Israel due to the fighting and refuse to return home until the situation is resolved for good. “All of this makes a larger war more likely,” Daoud added.
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The F-35 securely connects high-tech platforms and seamlessly shares information across every domain to deliver what’s needed for a successful mission. Learn more. | | | | | VISITING PUTIN’S PAL: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN will travel to North Korea for a state visit on Tuesday and Wednesday to meet with leader KIM JONG UN, the Kremlin confirmed today. Russian officials indicated that Putin and Kim might sign a strategic partnership agreement while together. The two leaders will also attend a state concert in Pyongyang that is being organized in honor of Putin’s visit. The tightening partnership has been concerning for the West and NATO, specifically how North Korea has been supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Today, Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV also took aim at NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG, after the alliance chief said the group is in talks to place more nuclear weapons on standby. Peskov called the comment an “escalation of tension,” per Reuters. NATO spokesperson FARAH DAKHLALLAH later clarified Stoltenberg’s comment, emphasizing that the alliance is “committed to ensuring a safe, secure and effective nuclear deterrent.” “For that purpose, we have an ongoing modernization program to replace legacy weapons and aircraft,” Dakhlallah said. “Beyond that, there are no significant changes to our nuclear deterrent.” ICYMI — Russia’s ghost loomed over Ukraine peace summit by our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA ISRAELI AID CONUNDRUM: Fighting in southern Gaza continues and is still complicating efforts to deliver humanitarian aid there, even after Israel’s military said it would pause operations to allow assistance into the enclave, the head of the main organization delivering aid into Gaza told reporters today. On Sunday, Israel’s military announced that it would enact brief daily pauses in fighting to allow aid to enter, a move that was criticized by Netanyahu. Israel has come under fire for restricting aid groups’ access to Gaza, where millions of Palestinians are facing the risk of famine. “There has been information that such a decision has been taken, but the political level says none of this decision has been taken,” U.N. Relief and Works Agency chief PHILIPPE LAZZARINI said of the plans for pauses, per Reuters’ GWLADYS FOUCHE. “So for the time being, I can tell you that hostilities continue in Rafah and in the south of Gaza. And that operationally, nothing has changed yet.” SWAP TALKS ONGOING: The Kremlin said today that it is in contact with the U.S. about a potential prisoner swap involving jailed Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH, according to Reuters. Gershkovich, who has been jailed for more than a year over allegations of spying for the CIA, will face trial on June 26 in proceedings that will be held behind closed doors, our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA reports. The White House and the WSJ have repeatedly denied the espionage charges levied against Gershkovich and criticized his arrest as politically motivated. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | POLITICO is gearing up to deliver experiences that help you navigate the NATO Summit. What issues should our reporting and events spotlight? Click here to let us know. | | | | | | | | | ISOLATIONIST THAW? Some of former President DONALD TRUMP’s allies are striking a more nuanced tone on foreign policy than Trump’s semi-isolationist stances. Speaking to Newsweek’s ALEX ROUHANDEH, conservative firebrand Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) argued American citizens “are the ones who bear the burden and bear the pain of a foreign policy that is globalist, sometimes imperialist, and refuses to recognize any limits.” But at the same time, he added: “It's just all about priorities. I've talked to very few voters who are isolationist.” Over the weekend, Trump threatened to quickly cut U.S. assistance to Ukraine if elected, stoking fears in Kyiv and across its allies in Europe. But ELBRIDGE COLBY, a former DOD official who is poised for a major national security role if Trump wins, suggested that entirely abandoning Kyiv isn’t likely. “I support the Ukrainians. I think it's important,” Colby told Newsweek. “But it's a lot less important than what's happening in Asia, and the Europeans can and are stepping up on Ukraine.”
| | | CYBER COORDINATION: The U.S. convened nearly two dozen allies last week to discuss the international response to cyber threats, and our own MAGGIE MILLER got the inside scoop on the meeting. As our colleagues at Weekly Cybersecurity write, diplomats from 22 countries and the European Union huddled with LIESYL FRANZ, the State Department's deputy assistant secretary for international cyberspace security, to discuss how they can deter state-backed hacking, ransomware and other malign cyber activity aimed at "destabilizing and undermining democratic processes and societies." The countries — which included the U.K., France, Germany, Spain, Japan, Singapore and South Korea — also agreed to uphold the United Nations framework on responsible state behavior in cyberspace. That framework is a key component for the Biden administration’s cyber strategy.
| | | | JOIN US ON 6/26 FOR A TALK ON AMERICA’S SUPPLY CHAIN: From the energy grid to defense factories, America’s critical sites and services are a national priority. Keeping them up and running means staying ahead of the threat and protecting the supply chains that feed into them. POLITICO will convene U.S. leaders from agencies, Congress and the industry on June 26 to discuss the latest challenges and solutions for protecting the supply lines into America’s critical infrastructure. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | NATO’S BIG SPENDING: NATO chief Stoltenberg announced today that over 20 of the alliance’s 32 members will meet the bloc’s 2 percent defense spending target this year, Eric reports. Speaking at a Wilson Center event today, the Norwegian diplomat said he planned to inform President JOE BIDEN of the final tallies during their meeting this afternoon. The announcement comes four months after Stoltenberg projected just 18 countries would meet the goal. SOCIAL MEDIA ON THE RED SEA: The aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower is still floating, despite claims to the contrary from the Houthis and their allies, The Associated Press’ JON GAMBRELL reports. To combat disinformation, the carrier’s commanding officer, CHRISTOPHER HILL, has turned to social media to creatively rebut the narratives. His account, and that of the carrier, are full of videos of flight operations from the bridge, videos of a support dog and images of baked goods— including cookies, muffins and cinnamon rolls. And apparently Taco Tuesday celebrations are never lacking aboard the carrier, which is one of the Navy’s oldest. TAIWAN’S TOW MISSILE WAIT IS OVER: Taiwan’s Defense Minister WELLINGTON KOO announced today that a two-year delay in delivery of U.S. anti-tank TOW missiles to the island is almost over, our own PHELIM KINE writes in. Koo told Taiwanese lawmakers that Taiwan will get 1,700 TOWs and 100 launchers — delayed due to U.S. Army concerns about their performance quality — by the end of 2024, per Taiwan state media. CALM DOWN, EH? Canadian Defense Minister BILL BLAIR is defending his decision to have a Canadian patrol vessel dock in Havana, Cuba while Russian navy vessels were also at the port — a seemingly strange situation he knew about in advance, our own KYLE DUGGAN writes in. Blair has been under fire from his political opponents for days over the incident, which he cast as a tactical move cooked up by military brass, not his office: “This was a military mission,” Blair told reporters today. “This was a mission that was articulated by the commander of Joint Operations Command and the Royal Canadian Navy. They asked for my authority to do that, and I gave it.”
| | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — BOLSTERING BELARUS: Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) are calling on U.N. Ambassador LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD to work with the Belarus pro-democracy movement on an application for permanent observer status at the United Nations. “By establishing the Belarus democracy movement as a reliable international actor at the U.N., the global community will become better prepared to work together to stand against authoritarian regimes in Belarus and around the world,” reads the letter, which was sent to the ambassador today. The status would give the movement a limited ability to participate in the United Nations’ activities, without being a full member. The letter follows the duo’s Belarus Democracy, Human Rights and Sovereignty Act introduced in December. It also comes after Belarusian activist SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA — who is viewed by the U.S. as the democratic Belarusian leader — visited Washington last week and met with Shaheen.
| | XI’S STOCKPILE: Beijing has significantly expanded its nuclear arsenal over the last year, according to a report today from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The report estimates that China now has 500 warheads, up from 410 in January 2023. China maintains that its nuclear investments are still consistent with “a high level of stability, continuity and predictability.” STERN WARNINGS: The U.S., Canada, Japan and the Philippines conducted a two-day joint maritime exercise in the South China Sea, INDOPACOM announced today, as tensions with China in the region ramp up. Early this morning, a Chinese vessel collided with a Philippines supply ship in the South China Sea, South China Morning Post’s ALYSSA CHEN reports. Beijing has accused the Philippines vessel of “illegally entering” disputed waters, raising concerns that relations could continue deteriorating between the two countries. INDIAN SUSPECT EXTRADITED: An Indian man accused of plotting to kill an American citizen under directions from an Indian government official has been extradited to the United States, Czech authorities said today, per The Wall Street Journal’s TRIPTI LAHIRI. NIKHIL GUPTA was charged with attempted murder-for-hire and conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire, a plan that targeted Sikh separatist GURPATWANT SINGH PANNUN on U.S. soil and inflamed tensions between Washington and New Delhi. He pleaded not guilty in U.S. federal court today. The plea comes as national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN visits India today and Tuesday to discuss boosting defense and tech cooperation.
| | | |   | | | | | — KATHERINE SCHNEIDER is joining the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security as deputy director of public affairs. She most recently was comms director for Sen. BEN RAY LUJÁN (D-N.M.), and has also worked for Sen. JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.) and Rep. JOAQUIN CASTRO (D-Texas). — CLAIRE BURGHOFF is now VP of government affairs and corporate comms at Kratos Defense & Security Systems. She previously was a public affairs principal at Cornerstone. — Strategy group Albright Stonebridge Group has brought on TAKEO MORI and WAHEED OMER as senior advisors. Mori is a veteran of Japan’s diplomatic corps and Omer served in various Afghan government roles. — LYNNDY SMITH, Arizona Defense and Industry Coalition president, joined Ukroboronprom as a member of the supervisory board.
| | — MARTIN GRIFFITHS, The New York Times: U.N. humanitarian chief: World leaders are failing us — SARAH EL DEEB, The Associated Press: The war in Gaza has wiped out entire Palestinian families. AP documents 60 who lost dozens or more — GEORGI KANTCHEV, JOE PARKINSON and SILVINA FRYDLEWSKY, The Wall Street Journal: The Russian spies next door
| | — The United States Institute of Peace, 8:30 a.m.: A grassroots movement for peace in Papua New Guinea: Lessons for implementing the U.S. strategy to prevent conflict and promote stability. — The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 8:35 a.m.: Complexities, discontinuities, and unintended consequences of U.S. international tax rules: Options for change. — The Brookings Institution, 9 a.m.: Outcomes-based financing: Possibility and promise in global health. — The Wilson Center, 9:30 a.m.: Forced displacement in MENA and its gendered impacts. — The Air & Space Forces Association, 9:30 a.m.: Discussion with Lt. Gen. ADRIAN SPAIN, deputy chief of staff for operations at the Air Force. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: U.S.-India clean energy partnership for 450 GW. — The Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: Book discussion about “Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power.” — Senate Foreign Relations Near East, South Asia, Central Asia and Counterterrorism Subcommittee, 2:30 p.m.: Hearing on the FY2025 budget request for the Middle East and North Africa. — The Association of Marshall Scholars, 8:45 p.m.: Federal Reserve Board Governor LISA COOK receives the 2024 Marshall Medal Thanks to our editors, Emma Anderson and Willa Plank, who we constantly go to war with. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who tries his best to negotiate peace deals between us.
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