News: 3 key groups of voters get their closeups

Monday, June 17, 2024

3 key groups of voters get their closeups

Jun 17, 2024

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THE CATCH-UP

BREAKING IN NEW JERSEY — In a seismic development in Southern New Jersey, state AG MATT PLATKIN charged political power broker GEORGE NORCROSS and his allies in a sweeping indictment alleging a long-running corruption scheme, Dustin Racioppi and Daniel Han report. The indictment alleges years of extortion and threats, and accuses Norcross of leading “a criminal enterprise whose members and associates agreed the enterprise would extort others through threats and fear of economic and reputational harm and commit other criminal offenses to achieve the enterprise’s goals.”

“Norcross — whose brother DONALD is a member of the House — has wielded tremendous influence in New Jersey politics for decades, all without holding elected office. He is an insurance broker by trade but built up what’s known as the South Jersey machine, a Democratic political coalition considered one of the strongest in the state.”

SPOTTED sitting in the front row at Platkin’s presser: George Norcross himself.

President Joe Biden arrives for a campaign event.

President Joe Biden's standing with older voters could be a boon. But his dropoff with Black voters could spell his doom. | Alex Brandon/AP

A LOOK AT THE ELECTORATE — There’s a trio of incisive reads up this morning from the major outlets tracking three different segments of the electorate that are going to go a long way in deciding whether JOE BIDEN or DONALD TRUMP will get a second term in the White House.

ON OLDER VOTERS: Much of the early discussion about Biden’s reelection campaign centered on his age — with many inside and outside of the Democratic Party making the case that the president is too old for another term.

So there’s some sense of irony that older voters could be the key that unlocks the White House doors for Biden again.

“Republican presidential candidates have carried seniors in every election since 2000, and Trump won a majority of voters ages 65 and older in 2016 and 2020. But recent polling has shown Biden in a stronger position this time,” WSJ’s Ken Thomas and Dante Chinni report in Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin. “Biden has notched about 48% of seniors in The Wall Street Journal’s national and swing-state polls this year, a number that puts him in line with his 2020 performance. The polls have shown Trump getting about 46% of that age group, down from 51% in 2020.”

“Biden’s standing among older voters has a few possible explanations: The president has been performing well among Americans who are closely monitoring the election, giving him an advantage with seniors who actively consume cable television and news coverage in their retirement. Some polling has shown seniors with more favorable views of Biden’s handling of the economy, possibly because they feel more insulated from the impacts of higher interest rates and inflation.”

ON BLACK VOTERS: Down in Georgia, there are alarm bells ringing, indicating that Biden’s support among Black voters — a demographic that proved critical to his 2020 victory — is waning, with many considering a vote for Trump in November, NYT’s Alan Rappeport reports.

“A New York Times/Siena poll in May showed Mr. Biden trailing Mr. Trump in Georgia by 10 points, with 20 percent of Black voters leaning toward backing the former Republican president in a two-way race. While Black farmers are a small slice of the population, their vote could be critical in a state that Mr. Biden won by just 12,000 votes in 2020.”

IN THE SWING STATES: And WaPo is up with a look at “The Deciders” — a relatively small but highly influential slice of voters in battleground states “who fit into one or more categories: They voted in only one of the last two presidential elections; are between ages 18 and 25; registered to vote since 2022; did not definitely plan to vote for either Biden or Trump this year; or switched their support between 2016 and 2020,” WaPo’s Scott Clement, Emily Guskin and Dan Balz write.

“The overall findings of the Post-Schar School poll highlight problems facing Biden as he seeks a second term, in large part because the profile of the Deciders skews more in the direction of his natural coalition than Trump’s — younger and more non-White than the electorate at large, for example. This survey and other public polling this year has shown softness in Biden’s support among younger voters and among some Black and Hispanic voters.”

Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.

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7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Larry Hogan speaks during an event.

Larry Hogan is putting some distance between his campaign and Donald Trump's support. | Daniel Kucin Jr./AP

1. INDEPENDENCE PLAY: Maryland GOP Senate candidate LARRY HOGAN is up with his first ad since Trump signaled his support for the former governor as he takes on Democrat ANGELA ALSOBROOKS — and he’s using the opportunity as a chance to run away from the endorsement in the deep blue state. The new spot “doesn’t name Trump at all but instead stresses his independence from the GOP,” our colleague Ally Mutnick reports. “He invokes his father, LARRY HOGAN SR., the first GOP congressmember on the Judiciary Committee to call for President RICHARD NIXON’s impeachment, and Sen. JOHN McCAIN (R-Ariz.), who bucked his party to save Obamacare. ‘As President [JOHN F.] KENNEDY said, “Sometimes party loyalty demands too much,”’ Hogan says directly to the camera at the close of the ad.”

2. THE GOOD GUISE: Tomorrow’s primary in Virginia, where JOHN McGUIRE is challenging Rep. BOB GOOD, “has splintered the MAGA movement and the G.O.P. itself and highlighted the shifting alliances, personal feuds and chaotic maneuvering that have come to define the party as much as any ideological or policy position,” NYT’s Annie Karni reports. The methods deployed by each candidate to tout their respective MAGA bonafides are “indicative of a larger split on the right that has been brewing for years. Each candidate is pitching himself as the lawmaker in lock step with Mr. Trump, dividing the far right in this bright red district and leaving many voters confused.”

3. DOWN-BALLOT DELUGE: The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is rolling out a massive spending blitz to turn out voters for down-ballot races in an effort to go on attack against Republicans on the state level, where the GOP has enjoyed a spate of success in recent elections, NYT’s Maggie Astor reports. “The $10 million investment, part of a $60 million total that the group previously announced as its target for the 2024 cycle, will fund an unusually early and expansive public push — one intended not only to support candidates, but also to convince voters of the importance of controlling state legislatures. The money will go to party caucuses in Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”

THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.

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4. THE HUMAN TOLL: “The war in Gaza has wiped out entire Palestinian families. AP documents 60 who lost dozens or more,” by AP’s Sarah El Deeb in Beirut: “To a degree never seen before, Israel is killing entire Palestinian families, a loss even more devastating than the physical destruction and the massive displacement. An Associated Press investigation identified at least 60 Palestinian families where at least 25 people were killed — sometimes four generations from the same bloodline — in bombings between October and December, the deadliest and most destructive period of the war.”

5. CODE BREAKERS: “North Carolina Supreme Court Secretly Squashed Discipline of Two GOP Judges Who Admitted to Violating Judicial Code,” by ProPublica’s Doug Bock Clark: “One of the judges had ordered, without legal justification, that a witness be jailed. The other had escalated a courtroom argument with a defendant, which led to a police officer shooting the defendant to death. The Judicial Standards Commission, the arm of the state Supreme Court that investigates judicial misconduct by judges, had recommended that the court publicly reprimand both women. The majority-Republican court gave no public explanation for rejecting the recommendations — indeed, state law mandates that such decisions remain confidential.”

6. DESPOT DOWNLOAD: “Putin Is to Visit North Korea, a Sign of Deepening Military Ties,” by NYT’s Choe Sang-Hun in Seoul: “[Russian President VLADIMIR] PUTIN last visited North Korea in 2000, when he became the first Russian or Soviet leader to visit the nation. This week’s trip, beginning on Tuesday, highlights North Korea’s growing strategic importance for Mr. Putin, especially its ability to supply badly needed conventional weapons for the war in Ukraine. [North Korean leader KIM JONG UN] met with Mr. Putin in Russia’s Far East last September, ushering in a new era of relations between the two countries.”

7. COME FLY WITH ME: “Inside DOJ’s Wrenching Decision on Whether to Prosecute Boeing,” by WSJ’s Andrew Tangel and Dave Michaels: “The Justice Department last month accused Boeing of violating a pre-existing corporate probation for a fraud conspiracy charge related to the 2018 and 2019 crashes, after a panel of another Boeing plane flew off midflight. Prosecutors now have to decide if they should pursue the charge against Boeing and try to brand the company a felon, which could open the struggling aerospace giant to more financial penalties and complicate its ability to sell defense weapons and space vehicles to the U.S. government.”

JOIN US ON 6/13 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF HEALTH CARE: As Congress and the White House work to strengthen health care affordability and access, innovative technologies and treatments are increasingly important for patient health and lower costs. What barriers are appearing as new tech emerges? Is the Medicare payment process keeping up with new technologies and procedures? Join us on June 13 as POLITICO convenes a panel of lawmakers, officials and experts to discuss what policy solutions could expand access to innovative therapies and tech. REGISTER HERE.

PLAYBOOKERS

IN MEMORIAM — “John Everett Benson, Who Chiseled John F. Kennedy’s Grave, Dies at 84,” by NYT’s Penelope Green: “John Everett Benson, a master stone carver, designer and calligrapher whose chisel marked the deaths of presidents, playwrights, authors and artists, as well as generations of American families — and whose elegant inscriptions graced museums and universities, government buildings and houses of worship — died on Thursday in Newport, R.I. He was 84.”

TRANSITIONS — Ari Zimmerman is joining Coupang’s global government relations team. She previously was defense team lead at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck. … Christina Baworowsky is joining Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions as VP of policy and advocacy. She previously was senior federal policy advisor at Tesla. … John Cunningham and Jonathan Wachs are joining Dickinson Wright as members. Cunningham previously was general counsel and CEO at Ridgeside K9 LLC and the Ridgeside Foundation. Wachs previously was a principal at Offit Kurman.

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