| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | Presented by LG Ad Solutions | | | | | Tens of millions of eligible potential voters aren’t registered — and many are uninterested in changing that. Despite that, there are opportunities to engage some unregistered voters by messaging on abortion and local issues, according to a series of focus groups from the Voter Participation Center, a nonpartisan, liberal-aligned nonprofit that aims to register and turn out members of underrepresented populations through direct mail and digital outreach. The focus groups, first shared with Score, were conducted by GBAO in February and consisted of six to seven participants in each group: unmarried women over 35; women under 35; Latinos; and men under 35, all of whom were not registered to vote.
|  Tens of millions of eligible potential voters aren’t registered. | Tommy Martino/AP | As states across the country move to further restrict access to alternative voting methods to in-person voting on Election Day, like mail-in ballots or drop boxes, some unregistered voters feel discouraged from voting. Beyond logistical challenges, others expressed skepticism about the fairness of voting and dissatisfaction in the candidates running, as well as the feeling that the outcome of an election doesn’t impact their lives. Few participants were willing to change their views on voting. But Tom Lopach, head of the Voter Participation Center, said this hard-to-move group can be swayed by bridging the information gap — and giving them “permission” to not know everything about voting. In some of last year’s elections, the group tested language saying, “You don't have to be a physician to remove a splinter, and you don't have to know everything about the government to be a voter,” which Lopach said was successful. “If you feel like you don't have the information to vote, that can heighten your sense of things being unfair,” he said. “And if you don't feel fully engaged with or understanding of politics, government or elections, it can heighten your sense that you don't want to be a part of it.” Some focus group respondents noted that they care about abortion rights, but not enough to register nor head to the ballot box. That provides an opening, Lopach said, to conduct outreach framing abortion as an issue that is decided by the government and saying that if they register, they’ll be able to have their voice heard. Although abortion messaging has been supercharged on both sides of the aisle, Lopach argued that the broad cross-partisan approval for protecting abortion rights — as evidenced in red and purple states that voted to enshrine protections to the procedure over the last two years — makes it a promising way to communicate with this group. He also noted that federal issues are often “a little too distanced from where people are,” instead emphasizing the importance of tying “tangible” local issues, like housing costs, to voting. Messaging around informal communities — ethnic or racial groups, church groups or schools, for instance — is also a potential way to reach unregistered voters, Lopach said, pointing to respondents in the focus groups who noted that they feel isolated from their cities or towns, but more connected to those "lowercase 'C' communities." “If you get seven pieces of mail reminding you to get out and vote and reminding you that most of your neighbors get out and vote and you're in the minority by not voting, that pressure works,” he said. “Getting too political, getting too issue-oriented, doesn't work. But making the process of voting feel accessible, making people feel seen and their communities feel seen, works.” The Voter Participation Center — which plans to mail hundreds of millions of voter registration forms and other mailers this election cycle (something election officials have complained about in the past) — is also aiming to send out voter guides this year. The guides are still under development, but Lopach said they will likely focus on state-level elections, outlining an officeholder’s role and how it impacts people’s lives. The group’s largest voter registration mailing push comes around Labor Day, when people are really tuning into the election. Lopach said he’s encouraged by high voter engagement in special elections and recent off-year elections and that voter registration response rates are higher than projected. “If we can see some movement in this cycle, and then continue the work and continue to refine the language and the education we provide, … over time, we can increase those numbers,” Lopach said. “Oftentimes in politics, everybody's just focused on the following November or the following November in two years. Our testing and our work, we have such a longer horizon, that we see incremental progress as a success.” Happy Monday! Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Oklahoma and Virginia primaries and Georgia runoffs: 1 Days until the Colorado, New York and Utah primaries and South Carolina runoffs: 8 Days until the Republican National Convention: 28 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 63 Days until the 2024 election: 141
| | | | A message from LG Ad Solutions: New study available now: 'The Big Shift: Political Edition' shares our latest survey results for how political and regional differences shape CTV viewing habits. Discover why 63% of viewers now prefer streaming over traditional TV, and which party affiliation is leading the change. The Big Shift has significant implications for how you tailor your media and messaging to reach and engage voters during the most critical phases of the cycle. Download the full report here. | | | | | RETIREMENT RADAR — Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.) is not running for reelection. After the Supreme Court cleared the way for a congressional map that includes two majority-Black districts to be used in this year’s Louisiana elections, Graves maintained that he was running for reelection — although it wasn’t clear for which district. His 6th District was redrawn to snake across the state from northwest Louisiana all the way down to East Baton Rouge in order to create a second majority-Black district, meaning he would face an uphill battle in the new Democratic-leaning seat. He could have primaried Rep. Julia Letlow in the solid Republican 5th District, although others in the party — including Speaker Mike Johnson — discouraged him from doing so. In a statement, Graves said that “it is clear that running for Congress this year does not make sense. It is evident that a run in any temporary district will cause actual permanent damage to Louisiana’s great representation in Congress. Campaigning in any of these districts now is not fair to any of the Louisianians who will inevitably be tossed into yet another district next year.” NOT GOOD — Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), a member of the House Freedom Caucus, is endorsing Virginia state Sen. John McGuire, who is primarying Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Bob Good on Tuesday. “His decision to back McGuire will be seen as a grand betrayal by the right-wing group that is meticulous about appearing united publicly, even amid internal divisions,” POLITICO’s Olivia Beavers writes. Good has drawn the ire of his colleagues and former President Donald Trump — he has repeatedly endorsed challengers to sitting incumbents, was one of the eight who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and initially backed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump. McGuire has the backing of the former president, who is holding a tele-town-hall for him today. TRUMP CARDS — In a rare down-ballot defeat for Trump, Republican state Rep. Julie McGuire, his endorsed candidate for Indiana lieutenant governor, narrowly lost her bid at the nominating convention to Micah Beckwith, a pastor. McGuire also had the backing of Sen. Mike Braun, the favored gubernatorial candidate come the fall. Beckwith, who previously said that God “sent those riots to Washington” on Jan. 6, “ran an unorthodox solo campaign for the number two spot, publicly pitching himself as both the prospective governor’s cheerleader and a check on his power,” the Indiana Capital Chronicle’s Leslie Bonilla Muñiz writes. ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Winning for Women PAC, which supports conservative women, is backing Mary Draves, a former Dow Chemical executive, in the GOP primary for Michigan's soon-to-be-open 8th District. She’s running against Paul Junge, who lost in the general election for the seat in the midterms, and Anthony Hudson. The group is a big spender in primaries and has spent around $2 million this cycle in House races so far. IN THE STATES — Sean Spiller, mayor of Montclair, is joining the crowded Democratic primary to replace term-limited Democratic New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy in 2025.
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| | SETTING THE STAGE — The first presidential general election debate of the cycle taking place this month on CNN will be a 90 minute contest, with two commercial breaks (in which campaign staff can’t interact with candidates). Microphones will be muted throughout the debate except for the candidate whose turn it is to speak, and there will be no studio audience. Candidates will appear at a uniform podium. CNN said it is “not impossible” but “less likely” that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (and others) will make the stage alongside Biden and Trump. Kennedy has almost hit the polling requirement — three out of four — but CNN said he is only on the ballot in six states for a total of 89 Electoral College votes. The Kennedy campaign has touted that he has either qualified or submitted enough signatures in 22 states for a total of 304 electoral votes — well over the 270 threshold. CASH DASH — Biden hauled in $30 million at a Los Angeles fundraiser over the weekend, which the campaign said was a record total for a Democratic fundraiser. At his star-studded fundraiser in March, the president raked in $26 million. … ON THE OTHER HAND — Kennedy’s campaign is “struggling with fundraising at all levels,” POLITICO’s Brittany Gibson writes. “Even the super PAC supporting Kennedy’s independent presidential bid is straining to expand its Rolodex of potential donors. … Kennedy’s financial weakness raises questions about whether he will be able to maintain or extend his political support.”
| | | | A message from LG Ad Solutions:   | | | | | UT-Sen — Rep. John Curtis has a large lead in the GOP primary, per a Cygnal poll conducted for ClearPath Action Fund, a super PAC that is backing his bid. Curtis has 35 percent; former state House Speaker Brad Wilson has 12 percent; Trent Staggs, a mayor who has the backing of the state party and Trump, has 8 percent; and businessperson Jason Walton has 5 percent (500 likely GOP primary voters, May 19-20, MoE +/- 4.38 percentage points).
| | | | FL-Sen — Republican Sen. Rick Scott is pushing back on accusations that Republicans don’t support IVF, saying that his daughter is undergoing the treatment and vowing to “always protect” it. He’s running another ad emphasizing his support for IVF as well. MI-Sen — Great Lakes Conservative Fund, a super PAC supporting former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, features clips from a Trump speech praising Rogers. OH-Sen — One Nation, a group aligned with Senate GOP leadership, hits Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown over inflation and immigration. PA-Sen — Democratic Sen. Bob Casey attacks Republican Dave McCormick over his residency. Another ad accuses him of still living in Connecticut and also hits him over abortion. … Keystone Renewal PAC, which is backing McCormick, promotes the Republican’s immigration stance. UT-Sen — Defend American Jobs, a pro-crypto group that’s supporting Curtis, is attacking Staggs on tax hikes and calls him “too liberal.” … Curtis features his wife highlighting his land and China policies. CO-05 — America Leads Action Inc., a super PAC that has so far dropped millions this cycle in an attempt to block troublesome Republicans, is going after Colorado Republican Party Chair Dave Williams on China. MI-08 — Junge highlights his experience as a former prosecutor. MN-05 — Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar is up with her first spot ahead of the August primary, touting her record.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | MO-03 — Missouri Conservatives for Congress, a group supporting former Republican state Sen. Kurt Schaefer for this open seat, attacks former Republican state Sen. Bob Onder on immigration. NY-16 — DMFI PAC, a pro-Israel group, is boosting Westchester County Executive George Latimer ahead of his primary challenge against progressive Rep. Jamaal Bowman. … Fairshake, a pro-crypto super PAC, attacks Bowman for “pushing dangerous conspiracy theories.” NY-22 — Democratic state Sen. John Mannion touts his background as a teacher and his relationships with students. OK-04 — Republican Paul Bondar features other candidates running in the primary voicing their support for him over Republican Rep. Tom Cole. SC-03 — Republican Mark Burns, who’s in a primary runoff this month against Sheri Biggs in this safe red seat held by outgoing Rep. Jeff Duncan, touts his Trump endorsement. WA-04 — Republican Tiffany Smiley is running an ad on immigration and the economy — and shades the establishment. “Even though the political establishment told me to wait my turn, I'm running for Congress now,” she says. Smiley is challenging Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse. CODA: HEADLINE OF THE DAY — “Jamaal Bowman’s challenger is the Cher of suburban New York” — POLITICO
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