| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Miles Herszenhorn and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) talks to U.S. President Joe Biden prior a group photo at the G7 in Borgo Egnazia, near Bari in southern Italy, on June 14, 2024. | Luca Bruno/AP | With help from Alex Ward and Lee Hudson Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Programming note: We’ll be off tomorrow for Juneteenth but will be back in your inboxes on Thursday. There’s an obscure law that could help the Biden administration prevent assassination plots and other nefarious acts on American soil — but there are no signs the White House wants to use it. National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and other U.S. officials are in India to shore up ties with New Delhi on emerging technology. It’s an awkward situation, since a murder-for-hire trial — stemming from an alleged foiled assassination plot on American soil orchestrated by an Indian security official — is underway in the United States. So far, the Biden administration has taken no steps to punish India. The DOJ first announced the plot in an unsealed indictment in November, and more details about the scheme and the Indian government’s involvement were uncovered by The Washington Post in April. “Strategic imperatives loom large, given a strong shared interest in countering China, so the administration will proceed cautiously,” MICHAEL KUGELMAN, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, told NatSec Daily. “I don't anticipate any punishment or even consideration of punishment for now.” RICK ROSSOW, chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the U.S. wouldn’t be signing agreements with India if it “was considering significant options related to the assassination attempt.” If President JOE BIDEN wanted to, experts say, he could whip out Section 6 of the Arms Export Control Act, which prohibits U.S. arms sales to countries determined to be “engaged in a consistent pattern of acts of intimidation or harassment directed against individuals in the United States.” There’s little precedent around implementing the law, even though it’s been on the books for decades, JOHN CHAPPELL, an adviser on legal and policy issues at the Center for Civilians in Conflict, told NatSec Daily. Last year, a Government Accountability Office report found no indication that the law has ever been applied or even considered. “The scenario that could be most damaging for the relationship, including impacts on arms sales, is if India tries another extrajudicial killing on U.S. soil,” Kugelman added. “It's a scenario that's low likelihood but high risk for the relationship.” Lawmakers and analysts aren’t calling on the White House to immediately halt arms sales to India. After all, the law calls for shipments to stop if there’s a consistent pattern of behavior — not a single assassination plot. But going forward, the U.S. should explicitly notify every purchaser of American arms about the law, which would effectively send the message: “Do not let us catch you doing any of the following ever again,” a person close to the matter, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic, told NatSec Daily. Tightening ties with India is important, Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) told NatSec Daily, “but that doesn't mean you don't apply your own laws when there's been an attempt to assassinate a U.S. citizen.” On Monday, Van Hollen and four other senators called for a “strong diplomatic response” from Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and a briefing with the Biden administration on their talks with India about the matter. The Biden administration has maintained that India is taking the matter seriously and is investigating, and that the U.S. expects accountability from the government. Warning India with the law might cause some tension at first, the person close to the matter said. In the long run, however, it would pay dividends for the White House. “The only reason any country tries to kill people in the United States is that they think they can get away with it,” the person said.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Constantly evolving to meet emerging threats. In today’s world, you need to spot the threats before they’re seen.
That’s why Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security® means pushing the boundaries of defense tech to build a new standard of deterrence and protection. Learn more. | | | | | RAFAH OPERATION ALMOST DONE: Israel’s military operation in the southern Gazan city of Rafah is near complete, Israeli officials and analysts told The Washington Post’s STEVE HENDRIX and HAJAR HARB. Israel’s goal of rooting out Hamas militants is almost done, they said, and a new, less intense phase of the war could begin soon. A break from widespread air and ground attacks could offer somewhat of a reprieve to civilians and possibly allow the humanitarian aid situation in the enclave to improve. Up north, however, a new front could be opening up. Today, Israeli Foreign Minister ISRAEL KATZ warned that an Israeli decision about war with Hezbollah was coming soon: “In an all-out war, Hezbollah will be destroyed and Lebanon will be severely beaten,” he wrote on X. The Israel Defense Forces announced today that it “approved and validated” plans for an offensive in Lebanon. Also today, U.S. special envoy AMOS HOCHSTEIN said that hostilities between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah can wind down “if the sides agree,” adding that “we believe there is a pathway.” Hochstein was deployed to Lebanon today, following meetings with Israeli leaders, to meet with senior Lebanese officials to discuss how to bring the conflict at Israel’s northern border to an end. Hezbollah has been attacking Israel since the war in Gaza began, saying that it will stop once Israel stops its military operation in the enclave. With each day that passes, U.S. officials and analysts become more worried that Israel and Hezbollah will go to war. NETANYAHU’S CONFUSION: Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU blasted the Biden administration today for withholding military assistance to Israel — but it’s unclear exactly what he was talking about, Miles reports. Today, Netanyahu said in a video posted on X that he had told Blinken that “it's inconceivable that in the past few months, the administration has been withholding weapons and ammunitions to Israel.” “Blinken assured me that the administration is working day and night to remove these bottlenecks.” In May, the Biden administration pumped the brakes on the shipment of 2,000- and 500-pound bombs to Israel, a message to Israel ahead of its invasion of the southern Gazan city of Rafah. There haven’t been other weapons withheld, a U.S. official told our own ALEX WARD. “No idea what he’s talking about,” said the official, granted anonymity to speak candidly. Speaking to reporters after the video, Blinken pushed back on Netanyahu’s comments: “We, as you know, are continuing to review one shipment that President Biden has talked about, with regard to 2,000-pound bombs, because of our concerns about their use in a densely populated area. But everything else is moving as it normally would move.” WEST BANK CRISIS: The United Nations human rights chief said the situations in both the West Bank and East Jerusalem are “dramatically deteriorating,” according to Reuters’ GABRIELLE TÉTRAULT-FARBER. More than 500 Palestinians in those areas, including about 100 children, have been killed by Israeli security forces or settlers since the start of the war in Gaza, said VOLKER TURK, the U.N.’s high commissioner for human rights. Over the same period, 23 Israelis have been killed by Palestinians in the West Bank and Israel, he added. During the opening session of the U.N. Human Rights Council, Turk also called on Israel to release Palestinians who have been detained in Gaza and the West Bank. "Israel continues to detain arbitrarily thousands of Palestinians,” he said. “This must not continue.” IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | POLITICO is gearing up to deliver experiences that help you navigate the NATO Summit. What issues should our reporting and events spotlight? Click here to let us know. | | | | | | | | | THE O’BRIEN DOCTRINE: Former President DONALD TRUMP’s last national security adviser is calling on the Pentagon to deploy the “entire” Marine Corps to the Pacific as a bulwark against China’s increasing military might, our own LARA SELIGMAN reports. In a lengthy Foreign Affairs op-ed published today, O’Brien wrote that the Defense Department should consider “relieving” the Marine Corps of missions in other parts of the world, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, in order to focus on the Pacific. O’Brien is a close Trump adviser — and the op-ed could be a blueprint of Trump’s future national security policy if he wins re-election. “U.S. bases in the Pacific often lack adequate missile defenses and fighter jet protection — a scandalous deficiency that the Defense Department should fix by quickly shifting resources from elsewhere,” O’Brien wrote. Much of the piece focuses on China — “China” is mentioned 37 times and “Beijing” 12 times — particularly countering its expanding military influence in the Pacific. O’Brien also called for an economic decoupling from Beijing, and clarified that the Trump administration will continue providing Ukraine with military assistance. SOUNDS FAMILIAR? Hungary revealed the slogan for its six-month presidency of the Council of the EU: “Make Europe Great Again,” our own EDDY WAX and GABRIEL GAVIN report. Despite the clear echo of DONALD TRUMP’s “Make America Great Again” campaign slogan, Hungarian EU Affairs Minister JÁNOS BÓKA told reporters that the slogan is “a reference to an active presidency.” “You don’t have the sense of déjà vu because of Trump’s slogan,” Bóka said. “I don’t know if Donald Trump ever wanted to make Europe great again.”
| | | EXPECTING THE BRAT-WORST: German Interior Minister NANCY FAESER warned today of growing espionage and cyber threats from foreign adversaries including Russia, China and Iran, our own NETTE NÖSTLINGER reports. "The threat to our democracy from espionage, sabotage, disinformation and cyberattacks has reached a new dimension," Faeser told reporters in Berlin, while presenting an annual report by Germany's domestic intelligence agency that monitors threats to Germany's democracy. Russia, in particular, adjusted its intelligence strategy following the expulsion of its diplomats from Germany in 2023, according to Faeser. The Kremlin is now waging a more intense, multi-faceted campaign against Berlin, conducting espionage while also carrying out cyberattacks and disinformation operations, she added.
| | | | JOIN US ON 6/26 FOR A TALK ON AMERICA’S SUPPLY CHAIN: From the energy grid to defense factories, America’s critical sites and services are a national priority. Keeping them up and running means staying ahead of the threat and protecting the supply chains that feed into them. POLITICO will convene U.S. leaders from agencies, Congress and the industry on June 26 to discuss the latest challenges and solutions for protecting the supply lines into America’s critical infrastructure. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | IT’S (ALMOST) RUTTE TIME: Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister MARK RUTTE has received the support of 31 out of 32 NATO allies to become the alliance’s next secretary-general after Hungary and Slovakia indicated their support for Rutte, our own STUART LAU reports. The only holdout is Romania, which still supports its own president, KLAUS IOHANNIS, to serve in the alliance’s top political post. Rutte earned Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN’s backing after promising to allow Budapest to continue to opt out of the alliance’s efforts to aid Ukraine in its war against Russia. Outgoing NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG made a rare statement about the effort to appoint his successor during a press conference in Washington today, saying that Rutte is a “very strong candidate.” SEOUL SEARCHING: Washington has hit pause on talks to strike a defense trade agreement with Seoul while the Government Accountability Office conducts a broad probe of the Pentagon’s other trade pacts, a South Korean official told our own JOE GOULD and PHELIM KINE (for Pros!). The two countries had been deep in negotiations to finalize a Reciprocal Defense Procurement Agreement that would lower barriers for South Korea and the U.S. to sell each other weapons systems. But in early June, the Pentagon shelved the talks with South Korea amid the Government Accountability Office audit. Col. YONGSUN KIM, South Korea’s defense cooperation attaché to the U.S., said he believes the Pentagon will resume the negotiations once the audit is complete, possibly in August or September. BOWING TO BIDEN: Rep. GREGORY W. MEEKS (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, quietly signed off on a major arms sale to Israel amid pressure from the Biden administration over his monthslong effort to delay the sale, The Washington Post’s JOHN HUDSON reported Monday night.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CLASSY CLASSIFICATION: A bipartisan group of Senate Intelligence Committee members is urging the Biden administration to implement a law that would aim to increase accountability and oversight of the classification system, limit overclassification and direct U.S. agencies to justify security clearance requirements. The government systematically overclassifies too much information, and also fails to protect Washington’s most important secrets, the senators wrote in a letter to Federal Chief Information Officer CLARE MARTORANA today, led by Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas). “Part of the solution to both of these challenges involves the adoption of technology that would enable classification and declassification of information to be carried out in a more efficient and effective manner,” the lawmakers write, calling on the administration to implement the Sensible Classification Act that was signed into law last year as part of the Intelligence Authorization Act. Those who signed include Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) and Sens. JERRY MORAN (R-Kansas), RON WYDEN (D-Ore.), SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine), ANGUS KING (I-Maine), MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.), MARTIN HEINRICH (D-N.M.) JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.), and BOB CASEY JR. (D-Penn.).
| | | |   | | | | | BASHING BIDEN AND TRUMP: The outgoing top officer in the National Guard today criticized the long-running presence of sending Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border to aid Homeland Security personnel there, saying it has “no military training value,” our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports. Gen. DANIEL HOKANSON told senators that the deployment at the border during the Biden and Trump administrations puts strain on part-time troops while doing little to build warfighting readiness: “This is a law enforcement mission under the Department of Homeland Security,” Hokanson said during a Senate Defense Appropriations budget hearing. The candid comments from the top Guard leader come as the complex cross-party fight over the border and immigration loom over the November election rematch between Biden and Trump. PUTIN STANDS BY KIM: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN pledged to support North Korea against the U.S. by strengthening military and trade ties with Pyongyang, per Reuters’ HYONHEE SHIN, JOSH SMITH, and GUY FAULCONBRIDGE. “Washington, refusing to implement previously reached agreements, continuously puts forward new, increasingly stringent and obviously unacceptable demands,” Putin told North Korean state media. “Russia has always supported and will continue to support the DPRK and the heroic Korean people in their opposition to the insidious, dangerous and aggressive enemy.” Read: The anti-China pressure hits DC trade groups by our own CAITLIN OPRYSKO
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — NATHAN DILLER joins Divergent Technologies as the company’s inaugural chief strategy officer for aerospace and defense. The retired Air Force colonel was previously a House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee staffer and AFWERX director.
| | — Sen. MARCO RUBIO, The Miami Herald: President Biden should stop appeasing Venezuela’s regime — BEN RHODES, Foreign Affairs: A foreign policy for the world as it is — KATHERINE KUZMINSKI and TAREN SYLVESTER, Center for a New American Security: Back to the drafting board: U.S. draft mobilization capability for modern operational requirements
| | — The Hudson Institute, 8:30 a.m.: Transatlantic relations ahead of the Washington Summit. — The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9 a.m.: Rethinking Central and Eastern European industrial policy. — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:15 a.m.: Strengthening national security through effective foreign direct investment screening. — The Wilson Center, 10:30 a.m.: World Refugee Day: Celebrating refugee talents and host country leadership. — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Nuclear weapons and foreign policy. — The McCain Institute, 12 p.m.: Discussion about the congressional delegation to Normandy for the 80th anniversary of D-Day and the importance of NATO today. — The Helsinki Commission, 2 p.m.: Briefing about “The proliferation of Russian-style foreign agents laws.” — DACOR, 2 p.m.: The U.S. Foreign Service at 100: Opportunities and threats. — The Women's Foreign Policy Group, 5:15 p.m.: Navigating the future of U.S.-Mexico relations. Thanks to our editors, Rosie Perper, who often kills our hard work on U.S. soil. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who foils her plot every time.
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