| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | Presented by Vapor Technology Association | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THE PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE — NIKKI HALEY opened the door further to the possibility that she may not support the eventual GOP nominee for president — which is increasingly likely to be DONALD TRUMP. Asked by NBC’s Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press” this morning whether she is still “bound by that pledge,” which was originally proposed by the RNC, Haley responded: “No, I think I’ll make what decision I want to make.” More from Kelly Garrity CAN BOEBERT BOUNCE BACK? — Rep. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.) gets the Ben Terris treatment in WaPo’s Style section: “Lauren Boebert doesn’t want to lose the House: A messy divorce and flagging popularity upended her personal life and threatened her political future. Can the MAGA Mean Girl start over without changing?”
|  NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) has some reasons to hope that his party can hold on to the House. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | RICHARD HUDSON’S GOOD NEWS — There’s naturally been a ton of focus lately on the race for the White House. This morning, we pivot to a series of developments across the country that will impact the battle for control of the House. The assumption on Capitol Hill among Democrats — and even a bunch of Republicans, privately — has been that the lower chamber is basically lost for the GOP. You can see it in the number of senior Republicans who have decided to call it quits and retire despite their powerful positions on committees. Add that to Trump cementing his place as the party’s all-but-official nominee, and you can see the difficult road ahead: While most GOP lawmakers are lining up behind the former president, fears that Trump will drag down Republican candidates elsewhere on the ballot remain prevalent. And yet this weekend, NRCC Chair RICHARD HUDSON (R-N.C.) has some reasons to hope, due to a series of news stories … 1. MAJEWSKI OUT — Just two weeks ahead of Ohio’s March 19 primary, embattled GOP candidate J.R. MAJEWSKI announced yesterday afternoon that he’s bowing out of the race to take on Democratic Rep. MARCY KAPTUR. Majewaki, who lost to Kaptur by double-digits in 2022, has been facing pressure to drop out since he used a slur to belittle people with developmental disabilities who compete in the Special Olympics. That’s atop the preexisting knock on Majewski that he lied about serving in combat in Afghanistan, which created a huge problem for him last time around. The development is music to Hudson’s ears. Ohio’s ninth district, as our colleague Ally Mutnick writes, is one of Republicans’ best pickup opportunities — one of just five Dem-held seats that Trump carried in 2020. Hudson and Speaker MIKE JOHNSON have been working behind the scenes to pressure Majewski out of the race — including by directly appealing to Trump for help during a recent visit at Mar-a-Lago. Majewski confirmed to Ally that he’s been in touch with Trump’s team — though while announcing his suspended campaign on X yesterday, he insisted Trump didn’t tell him to drop out. “While I know I would win, and have a great shot in the general election now that my record was cleared, it is inevitable that the Deep State will do whatever it takes to fight against me,” Majewski said. His exit leaves Republicans with two potential candidates — both whom they consider more formidable than Majewski: former state Rep. CRAIG RIEDEL and state Rep. DEREK MERRIN. 2. DEMS’ WISCONSIN MAKEOVER ON HOLD — A few hundred miles west, the Wisconsin Supreme Court on Friday rejected an 11th-hour Democratic push to change the state’s congressional map ahead of November. The new map — signed by Gov. TONY EVERS (D) just a few weeks ago — was bad news for Republicans who hold six of the state’s eight congressional seats. It would have made reelection for Reps. BRYAN STEIL and DERRICK VAN ORDEN a heavier climb; indeed, the DCCC had already made Steil a top target, anticipating the changed map. But a ruling on Friday from the state Supreme Court ensured that the old map, not the new one, will be used for the state’s congressional races in 2024. The decision is a blow for Dems’ chief elections legal brain, MARC ELIAS, who championed the move and was tweeting confidently about his efforts just a few days ago. After the party won the state Supreme Court race last year with the election of liberal justice JANET PROTASIEWICZ, Democrats were bullish that they’d be successful in this endeavor — until Protasiewicz essentially recused herself from the decision. More from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Now, Republicans are sighing relief that the old map will be in place for now. This morning, the NRCC expressed confidence to Playbook that they’ll now retain both Steil and Van Orden’s seats this fall. 3. DEM INFIGHTING THREATENS CALIFORNIA — Traveling further west again, NYT’s Jonathan Weisman has new reporting from California about how Democrats are warring amongst each other in Tuesday’s primary — and how the result could impact their efforts to flip the House. Reporting from the Bakersfield area — KEVIN McCARTHY’s home base — and beyond, Weisman goes deep into the contentious race to challenge Rep. DAVID VALADAO (R-Calif.), one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country, whose seat President JOE BIDEN carried by 13 points. While it’d typically be an easy pick for Dems, Weisman says the battle between Democratic candidates “has become so personal that some in the party fear they could divide the vote” and lead to two Republicans qualifying for the November ballot, locking out Democrats entirely in the jungle primary system. (Remember: California has a so-called “jungle primary” system, where the top two vote-getters advance to the general, regardless of party affiliation.) One interesting nugget: The NRCC has “calculated that two-thirds of the battle for control of the House will occur in states largely untouched by the presidential election. With no boost from the presidential organizing and get-out-the-vote efforts, N.R.C.C. officials have set up 24 field offices — the most ever — figuring they are on their own in defending the G.O.P.’s razor-thin majority.” And… damn important context: “The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia has rated just 10 Republican seats as tossups, nine of them in states with Democratic governors .… Democrats would need five seats to win control of the House .… With so few opportunities, an unforced error taking Democrats out of play in Mr. Valadao’s district would loom large.” 4. DEMS’ NEW YORK LETDOWN? — The above stories come as Republicans are sighing relief that Democrats didn’t screw with them as much as they thought they would in New York. In the home state of HAKEEM JEFFRIES — who’d become speaker if Dems flip the House — Democrats wanted to press their advantage as much as possible in new congressional maps. And they certainly got some wins. The pushed the 22nd district around Syracuse, which GOP Rep. BRANDON WILLIAMS barely won in 2022, further into the Dem category. Ditto with newly elected Democratic Rep. TOM SUOZZI’s district, which became slightly bluer. But Albany left the seats of NY GOP Reps. MIKE LAWLER, MARC MOLINARO, NICOLE MALLIOTAKIS and ANTHONY D’ESPOSITO largely intact, while making NICK LaLOTA’s seat redder. “We feared the worst and we’re happy to say it didn’t happen,” the WSJ’s editorial board wrote of the decision, adding that Republicans “have avoided a political massacre.” For more on winners and losers,read here. Related reads:
Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from the Vapor Technology Association: President Biden: Your administration is working against you.
The FDA is going rogue, trying to force your hand on menthol cigarettes—and that's just the start.
Unelected bureaucrats have been politicizing public health for years, and are ignoring science by banning flavored vapes which are the most effective tool to stop smoking.
President Biden—it's time to take back control of your Cancer Moonshot and public health equity agenda.
Learn More | | | SUNDAY BEST … — Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) on Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war and the “uncommitted” votes campaign in Michigan, on ABC’s “This Week”: “I think it is time for the president to use all the leverage that he has to get a long-term ceasefire. … But to the extent the president is using additional leverage on Israel, he should do that for national security reasons, not for political reasons. These issues are too important to be dictated by the polls.” — Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) on Trump’s influence on the Senate GOP leadership race on “This Week”: “He’s the Republican frontrunner, he’s going to have, you know, a voice in it. We recognize that, and I think — as MITCH [McCONNELL] says — you know, we understand politics, and that’s a part of the political scene. But we also know that in the Senate, we’ve got a lot of independent thinkers as well. The former president will have, you know, the opportunity to influence a number of my colleagues, but we also want to be able to have a good working relationship with him.” — DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS on the administration’s options for securing the border, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “When we take administrative actions, as we have done a number of times, we are challenged in court. Legislation is the enduring solution. And, by the way, we cannot through administrative action plus-up the United States Border Patrol, Customs and Border Protection, by 1,500 personnel, like this legislation proposes.” TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.
- “The Enormous Pressures About to Land on Judge Tanya Chutkan,” by Ankush Khardori for POLITICO Mag
- “Why an ex-congressman is living in a ‘safe house’ from Trump,” by Elizabeth Becker for WaPo
- “Israel Is Losing Its Greatest Asset: Acceptance,” by Tom Friedman for NYT
- “Why Is Trump Getting Special Treatment From the Supreme Court?” by Aziz Huq for POLITICO Mag
- “Why Is Trump Trying to Make Ukraine Lose?” by Anne Appelbaum for The Atlantic
- “Driving at ridiculous speeds should be physically impossible,” by David Zipper for Vox
- “I Was a Heretic at The New York Times,” by Adam Rubenstein for The Atlantic
- “Border Crackdowns Won’t Solve America’s Immigration Crisis,” by Hein de Haas for WSJ
- “Biden needs to tell Israel some difficult truths. Only he can do it,” by Fareed Zakaria for WaPo
- “The Democrat Showing Biden How It’s Done,” by Michelle Goldberg for NYT
- “A Post–Labor Day Trump Insurrection Trial? Great, Bring It On,” by Michael Tomasky for TNR
| | | | A message from the Vapor Technology Association:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden has nothing on his public schedule.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR
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Polls show warning signs for Biden in a number of areas as he ramps up his reelection campaign. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | 1. POLL POSITION: A handful of poll results this morning spell bad news for Biden, delivering rebukes of the president in three key areas that are sure to be mainstay topics of the 2024 race. The age-old question: Among those who voted for Biden in 2020, “61 percent said they thought he was ‘just too old’ to be an effective president,” NYT’s Lisa Lerer and Ruth Igielnik report. “A sizable share was even more worried: Nineteen percent of those who voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, and 13 percent of those who said they would back him in November, said the 81-year-old president’s age was such a problem that he was no longer capable of handling the job.” It’s the economy: Despite a general sense that the economy is improving under the Biden administration’s watch, the president is seeing little boost in his numbers, still trailing Trump 47% to 45%, according to a new WSJ poll. “Some 37% now approve of Biden’s handling of inflation, up 7 points from the December survey, and 40% approve of his handling of the economy overall, a 4-point increase that is within the poll’s margin of error. Those findings, while suggesting improvement for the president, still show that voters hold a dim view of his stewardship of the economy,” WSJ’s Aaron Zitner writes. More of the same from CBS: “CBS News poll finds voters remember Trump's economy as good, boosting Trump to national lead over Biden today,” by CBS’ Anthony Salvanto, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Kabir Khanna The war report: “A plurality of American voters think Israel has gone too far in responding to the October attacks by Hamas, and a growing share believes the U.S. isn’t doing enough to help the Palestinian people,” per the WSJ. “The new poll found that 60% of voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of the war, 8 points more than in December, with 31% approving of Biden’s actions.” 2. THE TRUMP TRAIN ROLLS ON: Yesterday, Trump added to his string of victories in the presidential nominating process, as “Michigan Republican officials and other preselected party members awarded Trump all 39 of the delegates up for grabs at their caucus convention in Grand Rapids,” WaPo’s Hannah Knowles writes. (Combined with the primary results on Tuesday, Trump leaves Michigan with 51 delegates total, while Haley got 4, per Detroit News’ Craig Mauger.) “Trump won every delegate in Idaho’s caucuses as well, and the Associated Press projected a victory for him in Missouri, as Republican voters across the two states made their selection at party-run meetings.” Analyze this: A new analysis of some of the early voting states find that Trump receiving the nomination would turn off a “small but substantial” chunk of GOP voters, AP’s Linley Sanders, Jesse Bedayn and Amelia Thomson-Deveaux write. “According to AP VoteCast surveys of the first three head-to-head Republican contests, 2 in 10 Iowa voters, one-third of New Hampshire voters, and one-quarter of South Carolina voters would be so disappointed by Trump’s renomination that they would refuse to vote for him in the fall.” 3. SPEND IT IF YOU GOT IT: AIPAC is planning to drop $100 million across its political entities in 2024, “taking aim at candidates they deem insufficiently supportive of Israel,” our colleagues Elena Schneider and Melanie Mason report. “The strategy has taken on new urgency this election season from donors animated by the Israel-Hamas war. AIPAC’s biggest targets are members of the so-called Squad of progressive House Democrats who have been openly pressuring the administration to call for a cease-fire. But AIPAC’s ambitions are broader. United Democracy Project, the group’s super PAC, is monitoring 15 to 20 House races and polling in many of those districts.” 4. WATCH THIS SPACE: “Trump’s Allies Ramp Up Campaign Targeting Voter Rolls,” by NYT’s Alexandra Berzon and Nick Corasaniti: “A network of right-wing activists and allies of Donald J. Trump is quietly challenging thousands of voter registrations in critical presidential battleground states, an all-but-unnoticed effort that could have an impact in a close or contentious election. Calling themselves election investigators, the activists have pressed local officials in Michigan, Nevada and Georgia to drop voters from the rolls en masse. They have at times targeted Democratic areas, relying on new data programs and novel legal theories to justify their push.”
| | | | A message from the Vapor Technology Association:   | | | 5. HOW THE MIGHTY HAVE FALLEN: “Iowa Democrats were forced to toss the caucus. They’ll quietly pick a 2024 nominee by mail instead,” by AP’s Hannah Fingerhut: “Instead of congregating for caucuses, a one-night spectacle where community members publicly signal their support for a candidate, Iowa Democrats headed to the mailbox to send in their ballot. The results will be released on Super Tuesday, a slate of primaries and caucuses across more than a dozen states. “The break with five decades of tradition follows chaos that mired the party in 2020 and the reshuffling of the Democrats’ 2024 calendar to prioritize more diverse states. The fallout has disappointed Iowa party leaders and activists, with some feeling jilted by the national party. Even more, it has left many worried about the deterioration of Democrats’ grassroots organizing and about the prospects for success in a state that has morphed from a purple toss-up into a Republican stronghold over the last decade.” 6. THE NEXT TURN OF THE SCREW: As Congress continues to hem and haw over providing aid to Ukraine, Speaker Mike Johnson “has met privately with House Republicans who have been trying to build support for a new bipartisan foreign aid package that includes restrictions on the U.S. border with Mexico. And now House Foreign Affairs Chairman MICHAEL McCAUL is taking a lead role in trying to finalize a proposal and build consensus within the conference as part of a push for floor action by late March or April,” CNN’s Manu Raju reports. “Johnson has not yet taken a position on the plan or committed to giving it a floor vote, telling his colleagues that they need to finalize government funding legislation first. But once that process is done by mid-March, Republican backers of the plan believe he will let it come to the floor – even it risks backlash from hard-right members or even a vote for his ouster from the speakership.” 7. LATEST IN THE MIDDLE EAST: “U.S. plans more airdrops into Gaza amid hope for Ramadan cease-fire,” by WaPo’s Niha Masih and Annabelle Timsit: “Centcom said it was ‘conducting planning for potential follow-on airborne aid delivery missions,’ as U.S. officials said they were planning additional airdrops into Gaza and exploring new ways to get desperately needed assistance into the Hamas-controlled enclave, including by sea.” Related reads: “Hamas arrives in Cairo for ceasefire talks with deal ‘on the table,’” by Reuters’ Nidal Al-Mughrabi and Bassam Masoud … “Israel’s wartime Cabinet is shaken by a dispute between Netanyahu and his top political rival,” by AP’s Tia Goldenberg, Wafaa Shurafa and Samy Magdy … “Dropping aid from planes is expensive and inefficient. Why do it?” by WaPo’s Sarah Dadouch and Claire Parker 8. DEEP IN THE HEART: As the Lone Star State prepares for a slate of elections on Tuesday, Texas’ GOP Gov. GREG ABBOTT and AG KEN PAXTON are crusading to reshape the state legislature, “amplifying tensions that have simmered for years between the party’s old guard and a more socially conservative faction aligned” with Trump, which “sees Tuesday’s vote as a chance to shift the balance of power in the Texas House, which has served as a moderating force in the state’s politics,” NYT’s J. David Goodman reports. “The fight is not unique to Texas as Republicans across the country and in Congress engage in a struggle for control of the party. But the outcome could reverberate widely if Republicans in Texas, the most populous and wealthiest conservative state, decide the state needs to move even further to the right.” 9. KNOWING JESSICA REED KRAUS: “She Was a Mommy Blogger. Now She’s Covering Trump and Kennedy on the Trail — and Making a Fortune,” by WSJ’s Sara Ashley O’Brien: “What started with celebrity gossip and conspiracy theories has expanded to include coverage of the 2024 presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., both of which have granted her unusual access. Kraus now pays a team to help run the House Inhabit brand, which has 1.2 million followers on Instagram. Based on the percentage of her 290,000 subscribers that she said are paying, her Substack is pulling in more than seven figures a year.”
| | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | MEDIA NUGGET — Gannett is relocating its HQ from McLean, Virginia, to New York City, per NYT’s Ben Mullin. OUT AND ABOUT — The Washington AI Network presented an “Ask Kara Swisher Anything” HAIppy Hour yesterday evening hosted by Teresa Carlson and Tammy Haddad at the House at 1229. SPOTTED: David and Ellen Ginsberg, Elham Tabassi, Shannon Kellogg, Trooper Sanders, Machalagh Carr, Keenan Austin Reed, Crystal Carson, Maryam Mujica, Miriam Vogel, David Adler, Varun Krovi, Cathy Merrill, Michelle Freeman, Jodie McLean, Carol Melton, Reema Dodin, Elizabeth Falcone, Liz Johnson, John McCarthy, Alla Seiffert, James Perry Adams, Kevin Cirilli and Cat Zakrzewski. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: POLITICO’s Goli Sheikholeslami, Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns … Susannah Wellford of Running Start … Laura Engquist of Rep. Troy Balderson’s (R-Ohio) office … Greg Honan … Jeff Forbes … Chanse Jones … Russ Newell of UnitedHealth Group … Hope Goins of the House Homeland Security Dems … Fox News’ Lacey Christ … Ed Cash of Frontier Security Strategies … Savannah Lane … Troy McCurry of the Pew Charitable Trusts … Keith Norman … Eliot Cohen … Brian Zuzenak … Sam Newton … Greg Martin … Mario Ruiz … Caitlin Gallagher Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from the Vapor Technology Association: President Biden: Your administration is working against you.
The FDA is going rogue, trying to force your hand on menthol cigarettes—and that's just the start.
Unelected bureaucrats have been politicizing public health for years, and are ignoring science by banning flavored vapes—the most effective tool to stop smoking.
Studies show that e-cigarettes are the most effective tool to help people quit smoking, even when they have no intention to quit.
Dr. Nancy Rigotti (Harvard Medicine) just wrote in the New England Journal of Medicine: “U.S. public health agencies and professional medical societies should reconsider their cautious positions on e-cigarettes for smoking cessation. The evidence has brought e-cigarettes to a tipping point. The burden of tobacco-related disease is too big for potential solutions such as e-cigarettes to be ignored.”
President Biden—it's time to stop the FDA from undermining your Cancer Moonshot and health equity agenda.
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