| | | | |  | | By Emily Ngo, Nick Reisman and Jeff Coltin | With help from Shawn Ness
|  The battle for NY-3 could be a good litmus test for how the public perceives issues like aid to Israel and the war in Ukraine. | Emily Ngo/POLITICO | Snow day! … But the Mazi Pilip and Tom Suozzi campaigns don’t have the day off. It’s special Election Day in Nassau County and Queens. Here are five things we’ll be watching as the votes come in: National vs. local: The next House lawmaker from the 3rd Congressional District will likely be confronted with votes of global consequence including aid for allies like Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan. They will be a key vote in any deal to keep the federal government open. “The nation is watching what happens here,” Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik said Monday night at a Nassau County rally for her party’s nominee, Pilip. “The world is watching what happens here.” But the race could also turn on a handful of key local issues important to Long Islanders like housing and the controversial congestion pricing toll plan for Manhattan, a move that is expected to hit suburban commuters. Redistricting redo: This seat may soon look different with a court-order round of redistricting expected to yield a new House map for New York by the end of this month. It’s not clear yet if the state’s redistricting commission — evenly divided among Democrats and Republicans — will be able to broker a deal and come up with a map or if the process will be kicked to the Democratic supermajorities in the state Legislature. But come November, Suozzi or Pilip will be running with an altered set of voters and potentially recalibrating their message along the way. Snow whoa: Turnout is the name of the game in specials, and the wintry weather expected could keep voters at home. A lot of snow could be bad for Republicans in particular since they’re counting on day-of votes to make up for the Democrats’ apparent lead in the early and absentee vote. “I’m asking people to go out and do their patriotic duty, Republican, Democrat, independent,” Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman told reporters. “I would tell you to stay home if it’s to go for an errand or to get your nails done or to go to the barbershop or something that can wait a day or two. But this is the election.” Santos saga: “Miss me yet?” George Santos taunted on X after House Republicans failed to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. The special election to fill his seat may help the district move on from the saga of the indicted representative, who misled voters about his biography and stands accused of fraud. Suozzi, the Democratic candidate, has sought to label Pilip as “George Santos 2.0,” as a reminder of how little the public knows about her. Nassau County Republicans don’t mention him unless they’re asked about him. “Page turned, page turned,” GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito said succinctly. When will we know? Polls close at 9 p.m. But the Nassau County Board of Elections is notoriously slow to report results. And everyone is expecting a close race. We could be in for a late night. Or a long week. Playbook will be reporting on the ground on election night, and beyond. — Emily Ngo, Nick Reisman and Jeff Coltin IT’S TUESDAY. Got news? Send it our way: Jeff Coltin, Emily Ngo and Nick Reisman. WHERE’S KATHY? In Albany and New York City with no public schedule. WHERE’S ERIC? Appearing live on NY1’s “Mornings on 1,” then again on PIX11’s “PIX11 Morning News,” then again on FOX5’s “Good Day New York,” and then again on News 12, hosting a virtual media availability. QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Our pillow talk is usually about agencies, policy and legislation we’re interested in.” — Mariya and Lenny Markh, one of City & State’s 2024 New York political power couples, on handling the work-life balance.
|  | ABOVE THE FOLD | | | | 
Neither President Joe Biden nor former President Donald Trump have shown up to help in the battle for NY-3. | Emily Ngo/POLITICO | BIDEN, TRUMP, MIA: The race to replace Santos in suburban Long Island appears to be a harbinger of the national mood in a presidential election year. But the two main characters in the nation’s political story are too unpopular to set foot in the district, POLITICO reports today. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have avoided New York’s 3rd Congressional District on Long Island — a sign of their deep unpopularity among voters who have registered their displeasure in public polls. Suozzi has decided it would be better for Biden to stay away, and Pilip spent much of the race brushing off Trump but now welcomes his help in the final stretch. — Emily Ngo
| | CITY HALL: THE LATEST | | | | 
The Vote in NYC Jails Coalition has sent a letter to the city Board of Elections and Department of Corrections to urge them to allow inmates to vote in elections. | Seth Wenig/AP | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The Vote in NYC Jails Coalition — which counts the Legal Aid Society and the League of Women Voters of the City of New York among its members — has sent a letter to the city Board of Elections and Department of Correction urging their commitment to ensuring detainees can cast ballots and have them counted, according to a copy obtained by Playbook. “Individuals detained pretrial are eligible to vote, as are individuals convicted of a misdemeanor: these groups make up the vast majority of the population at Rikers Island,” notes the memo, which is endorsed by nearly two dozen groups and elected leaders. The memo lists the barriers to voting on Rikers Island and in other city jails as ranging “from a lack of information about voter eligibility and how to vote from inside, prohibitive cost, to impediments to voter registration and casting a ballot.” The coalition plans an Election Day news conference rally today in lower Manhattan to call for the new policies and reforms. — Emily Ngo NOT SO GREEN DARLENE: The New York League of Conservation Voters released its 2023 environmental scorecard Monday, and the overall trend is clear: Democrats agree with them on environmental bills, while Republicans don’t. One outlier? Democrat Darlene Mealy, who scored a 53 out of 100, the lowest of all Dems except for Kalman Yeger, a conservative in the Common-Sense Caucus, who scored 31. Robert Holden, another conservative Democrat, got a surprisingly high 75. Mealy didn’t respond to a request for comment. “There is a lot riding on the city council in 2024,” NYLCV Deputy Director for New York City Policy said in a statement, “and we will continue to work with all council members, including those who scored low this year to ensure they cosponsor or vote for key environmental legislation.” — Jeff Coltin More from the city: — Civilian complaints against NYPD cops jumped 50 percent in 2023 to 5,550, the highest total in a decade. (Daily News) — No more vaping while outdoor dining, if the city health department proceeds with its plan to amend smoking laws. (Gothamist) — NYCHA bosses had been warned for years about corrupt contracts — and spurned proposed reforms before the mass takedown on bribery charges. (The City)
| | NEW FROM PLANET ALBANY | | | 
The Democrats have nominated Landon Dais, while the Republicans have nominated Norman McGill to replace Assemblymember Latoya Joyner. | Hans Pennink/AP | ELECTION DAY, TOO: While the nation’s eyes are on NY-03, there’s also a low-profile special election in the South Bronx, in AD-77, to fill the seat vacated by former Assembly Member Latoya Joyner, who still hasn’t said what next for her after leaving the Legislature. The Democrats nominated Landon Dais, an attorney and political consultant who has specialized in the cannabis industry. The Republicans and Conservative Party have put forth Norman “Sobie” McGill, an apprentice at an elevator servicing company who leads a youth anti-violence nonprofit. Biden won the district with 87 percent, so Dais is all but guaranteed to serve Albany in time for budget season, despite what’s expected to be an incredibly low turnout. — Jeff Coltin STATE OF VAPE: The industry group that represents convenience stores in New York is urging state officials to crack down on illegal flavored vaping products. But one of their first steps may be to raise public awareness. The New York Association of Convenience Stores on Monday pointed to a recent Siena College poll that found only 39 percent of New Yorkers were aware that selling flavored vaping products is against the law. Among people who regularly shop at convenience stores, 61 percent said they have seen those products on store shelves. “New Yorkers want regulators to do their jobs and enforce the ban because they believe the health and safety of their children and their communities are at risk,” Kent Sopris, the group’s president, said. “We urge the Legislature to strengthen enforcement laws in the budget so authorities can do just that.” The group wants state officials to enforce the existing ban and also license e-vapor wholesalers for businesses that follow the law. — Nick Reisman GOING FOR THE CARROTS: After Gov. Kathy Hochul failed to get housing mandates across the finish line last year, she tried a new approach: dangling discretionary funds to entice towns and cities to build more. The effort has drawn considerable interest: more than 100 localities have now launched applications to receive “pro-housing” certifications from the state, per figures shared with Playbook. The designation gives towns and cities that have committed to growing their housing stock priority consideration for up to $650 million in state discretionary funding. The list of localities includes those in regions that fiercely opposed the production requirements Hochul was originally seeking, like Long Island. The villages of Hempstead and Port Washington in Nassau County and Brookhaven, Greenport and Smithtown in Suffolk County are among the communities that have moved to obtain the certification. “Communities across our state are lining up to be a part of the solution to our state’s housing crisis, and my administration will continue to do everything in our power to support their efforts to build more housing,” Hochul said in a statement. – Janaki Chadha More from Albany: — Albany County DA David Soares, a leading voice critical of recent criminal justice law changes, is losing political support after he granted himself a bonus. (Times Union) — Local 32BJ is trying to become a powerbroker in the housing policy debate. (NY1) — Hochul’s push to dramatically expand the list of potential hate crimes — including graffiti — is dividing Democrats. (Gothamist)
| | KEEPING UP WITH THE DELEGATION | | |  Mayor Eric Adams has not made a stop in NY-3, not even the Queens area to help Tom Suozzi, despite him saying he would do whatever he could to get him elected. | Michael Appleton/Mayoral Photography Office | WHERE’S ERIC? Mayor Eric Adams has said he’d do whatever he could to assist Suozzi in his special election — and it seems he’s helping by staying far away. Adams hasn’t campaigned for his friend, even as the district includes a portion of Queens. The pair were pictured together at a Lunar New Year parade in Queens on Saturday but seemed to keep their distance. Asked on Friday why Adams hadn’t come to help, Suozzi brushed it off, saying “I don't bring any outside groups” to campaign — which simply isn’t true, as many Democratic leaders from outside the district ranging from City Council Members Shekar Krishnan and Justin Brannan to Reps. Grace Meng and Hakeem Jeffries have all joined him. Adams isn’t popular, and Pilip’s backers have sent negative mailers tying Suozzi to Adams housing migrants. Ironically, the mayor has also irked some in his own party with comments seen as critical of asylum-seekers. “The best way for the mayor to help would be to undo the damage he’s helped create,” said a Democratic operative helping Suozzi, and who was granted anonymity to discuss strategy. “Stop giving sound bites that air in right wing media over and over and stay away from any national races in 2024.” Even Hochul, a political enemy of Suozzi, has been doing more for the nominee, POLITICO reported, praising Suozzi and criticizing Pilip in the press. — Jeff Coltin SPIKED: The $1.35 million Super Bowl TV ad by a pro-Pilip PAC that had been set to air during the Super Bowl, as the New York Post reported, actually turned out to be an ad that aired hours before the big game as part of a buy costing $1.35 million overall. The 30-second spot paid for by the Secure New York State PAC charges Suozzi is “soft on illegal immigration and tough on taxpayers,” according to the Post. The ad that was on the airwaves Sunday was played between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. during Super Game pregame coverage and cost $30,000, according to the PAC’s contract with CBS New York. — Emily Ngo MOLINARO ATTACK ADS: The left-leaning advocacy group Empire State Voices is launching another TV ad aiming at GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro for voting for “billions in tax breaks to big corporations,” Playbook has learned. The ad, airing today in the Binghamton media market, is the seventh launched by the group in a seven-figure media blitz in Molinaro’s sprawling district, which he captured by just two points in 2022. In a statement to Playbook, Matt Organ, Molinaro’s campaign manager, bashed the ad as a partisan attempt to distract from the woes of Molinaro’s reelection opponent, Democrat Josh Riley, in a NY-19 rematch. “DC lawyer Josh Riley is going to lose again,” Organ said. “He's running on the open border agenda and getting money from sexual predator Al Franken. His dark money allies are spending their money on bad ads to try and hide who Josh Riley really is… a corrupt DC lawyer.” The ad targets Molinaro for voting for H.R.1, the Lower Energy Costs Act, and H.R.2811, the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023, which are bills the group says will provide “billions in corporate tax breaks” and fiscal relief for wealthy New Yorkers. “We're not pushing for any candidate to get elected or not elected, but trying to put pressure on these members because they're in tight districts,” Axel Mark, Empire State Voices’s communication director, told Playbook. “We’re trying to put pressure on them to change their stances on issues and fight for policies that help working people.” — Jason Beeferman
| | NEW YORK STATE OF MIND | | — An independent audit on the effectiveness of economic development programs has sparked some lawmakers to reform the tax incentive program. (State of Politics) — Attorney General Tish James is claiming that two cryptocurrency websites caused its investors to lose over $3 billion. (Times Union) — An NYPD officer fatally shot a man in Queens after they pointed a fake gun at them. (Daily News)
| | SOCIAL DATA | | Edited by Daniel Lippman MAKING MOVES: The New York City District Council of Carpenters has hired former finance director for Max Rose’s congressional campaign Maddy Appelbaum as deputy political director, and Michael Fang as political coordinator. MEDIAWATCH: Keshia Clukey will be joining Newsday’s Albany Bureau as a reporter. She was previously assistant commissioner for public affairs for the New York State Education Department and is a POLITICO alum. — A Brief Oral History of Wayne Barrett, the First Journalist to Doggedly Cover Donald Trump. (Vanity Fair) HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Chip Smith … Bloomberg’s Stacie Sherman … Lila Nieves-Lee … Reuters’ Mike Spector … Emily Minster … Fox News’ Cailin Kearns … Blackstone’s Elizabeth Lewis … Times Union’s Joshua Solomon … (WAS MONDAY): Josh Hammer ... Anna Miroff ... Josh Kramer
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