| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  The passage is a victory for leaders Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell, but the bill now heads to the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson is not exactly rolling out the welcome wagon — far from it. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | THIS JUST IN — The Senate is moments away from passing the $95 billion national security supplemental, capping a long final weekend of debate — and months of wrangling that exposed a Republican Party badly split over aid to Ukraine. The vote remains open, but 69 senators have so far voted aye. It’s a victory for leaders CHUCK SCHUMER and MITCH McCONNELL, but the bill now heads to the House, where Speaker MIKE JOHNSON is not exactly rolling out the welcome wagon — far from it. The endgame … This morning’s vote followed an all-night talkathon from the GOP’s America First wing, featuring opposition speeches from Sens. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.), MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.), ERIC SCHMITT (R-Mo.), RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.), PETE RICKETTS (R-Neb.), J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) and MIKE LEE (R-Utah). More on the split GOP from Burgess Everett Notable … In yet another sign of DONALD TRUMP’s influence, Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) said yesterday that the aid for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan “should be a loan to the countries in question, as suggested by President Trump.” What’s next … Johnson issued a statement last night dumping another bucket of cold water on the Senate’s moves: “Now, in the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters. America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo.” SCOOP — Arizona Senate candidate KARI LAKE is receiving the all-important endorsement from the NRSC, our colleague Ally Mutnick reports this morning. “It’s a move that indicates top Republicans believe she has put together a serious campaign, and it sends a strong message to donors that she is worth their investment. And it’s a sign that this time, Lake is ready to work with the D.C. establishment.” LONG ISLAND’S SPECIAL — Today voters in New York’s Nassau County and a sliver of Queens will decide who will replace GEORGE SANTOS, the indicted fabulist recently expelled from Congress. Republican MAZI PILIP, a county legislator, faces Democrat TOM SUOZZI, a former mayor, county executive, and three-term occupant of the seat. Be prepared for a long night. Polls on Long Island close at 9 p.m., and Nassau County is not known for its speedy tabulation of votes. This special election really has it all — and we’re not just saying that because one of us was born in the district (Glen Cove Hospital). In NY-3 you get the highly original Santos scandal, a too-close-to-call matchup, major implications for legislation in the narrowly divided House, a preview of key strategies that will be central to the presidential election, and a final bit of drama: from Mother Nature: a forecast of 5-10 inches of snow today on the Island. (Remember, it’s on Long Island, not in Long Island.) And with the presidential primaries drained of intrigue, the “Mazi vs. Suozzi” contest (they rhyme) has become the center of the political universe. Many of the national reporters who might otherwise be camping out in Charleston will instead be headed to Woodbury, where Suozzi will hold an election night party at the Crest Hollow Country Club, which gives one of us flashbacks to the many Long Island bar mitzvahs, sweet sixteens and weddings of our youth. The outsized attention the race is receiving will lead to similarly outsized conclusions about what the results mean. That has created pressure on both parties to start spinning a possible loss before the race is even over. Democrats seem slightly more bullish about victory than Republicans. “There is increased agita by Democrats, but I still think it's Tom Suozzi’s to lose,” said former Rep. STEVE ISRAEL, the Democrat who held the seat for 16 years. “We got a lot that’s not working in our favor,” said a GOP operative working on the race. Here’s a rundown of the pre-criminations from each side if they lose today:
|  Rep. Tom Suozzi is closing the race trying to tie Mazi Pilip to the scandal-plagued person she is trying to replace. | Mary Altaffer/AP Photo | FOR SUOZZI … — Was he too late in tying Pilip to Santos? Our colleague Steve Shepard did the math and notes that this should be an easier lift for the former congressman. In House special elections that result from a scandal, there is usually a big penalty — an average of 9 points versus the preceding general election — for the party in power. Suozzi is closing the race trying to tie Pilip to the scandal-plagued person she is trying to replace. Yesterday he called her “George Santos 2.0.” If Suozzi loses it may be seen as too little, too late. “There are lots of people who wonder why Santos was not elevated in messaging, because he was a walking, talking scandal,” said Israel, who now owns a popular book store in Oyster Bay. “For whatever reason, and I would imagine it’s driven by data and polling, the Democrats chose not to focus on the original sin.” — Did he spend too much time on Pilip’s issues? Suozzi was determined to own immigration, the central issue in the race. But in defending his tough-on-the-border record early and often, some Democrats worry it meant that he was ceding control of the issues to Pilip. “When we saw that he was engaging, it was our dream,” said the GOP aide. “He was running an immigration ad! He just allowed us to play on our turf the entire way.” There was a similar dynamic with Israel. In one mail piece, Suozzi bragged about bucking his party when it became soft on Israel. The idea was to emphasize his independence. But some Dems worry it just reinforced Pilip’s attack about Democrats and Israel. — What about abortion? While other suburbs with similar upscale demographics have moved toward Democrats since the Dobbs decision, the New York suburbs have been stubbornly resistant to the trend. Crime mattered more in 2022, when Republicans picked up suburban seats in New York, and now immigration dominates the special election in 2024. Abortion is not Suozzi’s favorite issue to talk about, and some wonder if he should have pressed it more, as he eventually did in the debate with Pilip last week, when he rattled her with questions about whether she was pro-choice or not.
| |  Republican Mazi Pilip, a county legislator, is facing off against Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi for former Rep. George Santos' congressional seat. | Brittainy Newman/AP Photo | FOR PILIP … — Did she place too much faith in the Nassau County GOP’s turnout machine? Suozzi was supposed to crush the early vote, but Pilip was supposed to roar back with in-person voting today. But that plan didn’t anticipate a snowstorm. Republicans were freaking out last night about how the bad weather might depress turnout. Trump’s crusading against early voting in 2020 has created a Republican culture hostile to banking votes early. “Our voters still show up on election day,” said the GOP aide. “We're getting better at early voting, but we're not quite there yet, and this storm is really working against us.” — Did the Nassau County GOP place too much faith in Pilip? Pilip has more political experience than Santos did, but not much. In an election where voters just got burned by trusting a newcomer on the scene, some Republicans worry that Pilip’s greatest asset, her status as an outsider, makes her too similar to the fraudster she’s trying to replace. If Pilip does win today, it won’t be an easy seat for Republicans to hold. New York is about to rewrite its district lines. If Pilip wins, NY-3 will likely be targeted for significant changes. “This is going to be the most expensive short-term rental of a congressional district in history,” said Israel. “She can govern as a MAGA member of Congress or she can govern as a moderate member of Congress. But after redistricting, she won't be governing for very long.” Related reads: “In high-stakes New York House race, Biden and Trump are not welcome,” by Nick Reisman, Emily Ngo and Jeff Coltin … “Forecast worsens on eve of New York special election,” by Steve Shepard Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers: EPA is set to finalize a regulation designed to end the sale of new gas and diesel cars regardless of what drivers want, need, and can afford. Polling shows that Americans think the Biden EPA is moving too far, too fast. President Biden: Stop the EPA’s car ban. Vehicle policies can’t just work for some of us. They should work for all of us. | | | NEW JMART — “Get Used to It: Biden Isn’t Going Anywhere,” by Jonathan Martin: “The GOP fantasy crowd is so accustomed to conspiracy theories that they’re betting the Democrats will switch candidates at the last minute. Have they actually paid attention to politics?”
| | | | A message from American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers:   | | | |  | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House will meet at noon and at 2 p.m. will take up several items, including the impeachment of DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. More from AP The Senate is in. 3 things to watch … - Republicans are eager to dig deeper into special counsel ROBERT HUR’s report on President JOE BIDEN and his handling of classified documents. Three House GOP committee chairs want Hur to turn over recordings and transcripts of his interview with Biden — which could presumably shed more light on Hur’s characterization of Biden’s memory. And, CNN first reported, Hur could soon testify before House Judiciary.
- A controversial spy powers bill could hit the House floor later this week: House GOP leaders posted an 83-page bill, the Reforming Intelligence and Securing America Act, yesterday and scheduled a Wednesday Rules Committee meeting to prep it for the floor. Alas for fans of congressional oddities, Jordain Carney reports, the debate is not not going to be held in closed session — last seen in 2008, when the very same provision, Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, was in question.
- Two former speakers — NANCY PELOSI and KEVIN McCARTHY — are coming together this evening to honor former House Clerk CHERYL JOHNSON as she receives the U.S. Capitol Historical Society’s Freedom Award. The prize recognizes Johnson’s role in managing the floor during and after the events of Jan. 6, 2021, as well as keeping “order and decorum” during the marathon speaker election of 2023. Said JANE L. CAMPBELL, the society’s president and CEO, “our system endures because of the work of largely unsung heroes like [Johnson].”
At the White House Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS will have lunch together in the afternoon and later will receive the President’s Daily Brief. Harris will meet with King ABDULLAH II of Jordan in the morning
| | | | YOUR VIP PASS TO THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: Dive into the heart of global security with POLITICO's Global Playbook at the 2024 Munich Security Conference. Gain exclusive insights and in-depth analysis as author Suzanne Lynch navigates the crucial discussions, key players and emerging trends that will shape the international security landscape. Subscribe now to Global Playbook and stay informed. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS
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Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) speaks with reporters at the U.S. Capitol Feb. 12, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | DEMS WORRY ABOUT SAYING NO TO NATO — Democratic senators yesterday said Congress needs to take new steps to protect NATO after Trump said he would “encourage” Russia to attack member countries that don’t meet their financial commitments, our colleagues Joe Gould, Connor O’Brien and Paul McLeary report. “Lawmakers touted defense policy legislation signed into law in December that prevents any president from withdrawing the U.S. from NATO without approval from the Senate or an act of Congress. Yet on Monday, Democrats acknowledged that the guardrail they threw up would have a limited effect on a president who is opposed to the alliance. “Trump, for example, could refuse to appoint a U.S. ambassador to NATO headquarters in Brussels, or order U.S. military commanders to dial back exercises with their NATO counterparts. He could even refuse to come to a country’s aid if it’s attacked. Those moves fall short of pulling Washington out of the alliance, but they would certainly show that the administration was walking away from key commitments in Europe.” A taste of the sentiments: Sen. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.): “Everyone should be scared as hell. Anybody who cares about American leadership, anyone who cares about protecting democracy, anybody who wants to take on authoritarians around the world should be scared to death.” Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.): “I think these comments are disastrous. … There are potentially other measures we can take, and we should begin exploring them immediately while we still have the unity of support for NATO.” TRUMP CARDS
|  This week which will go a long way in determining how each of the legal dramas will play out for Donald Trump. | Matt Rourke/AP Photo | THE LEGAL LIMBO — All four of Trump’s cases are set to reach a clarifying inflection point, Kyle Cheney, Josh Gerstein and Erica Orden write — a week which will go a long way in determining how each of the legal dramas will play out as the former president heads toward an electoral rematch with Biden. In the New York civil fraud case, a judge is slated to finalize the timetable for his trial on charges that he falsified business records to cover up an affair with a porn star in the closing weeks of the 2016 election. In the D.C. election subversion case, the Supreme Court may signal whether it will quickly resolve Trump’s claim that he is “immune” from federal charges stemming from his effort to subvert the 2020 election. More on Trump’s effort to block the appeals court ruling from Kyle and Josh In the Georgia case, where Trump is also facing state charges related to the 2020 election, a judge has scheduled a Thursday hearing over whether Fulton County DA FANI WILLIS and her team can continue leading the Georgia racketeering case against the former president given her romantic relationship with special prosecutor NATHAN WADE. Trump himself is planning to attend that hearing, WaPo’s Amy Gardner, Holly Bailey and Shayna Jacobs report. And in the Florida case, a judge is weighing Trump’s latest motion to postpone key deadlines — a likely precursor to delaying the May 20 trial on charges of hoarding classified records at his Mar-a-Lago home. Yesterday, Trump attended a closed-door hearing in the case, Kimberly Leonard, Josh and Kyle report. 2024 WATCH THE FAMILY BUSINESS — In Trump’s continued effort to remake the Republican Party in his image, he is now privately discussing a push for his daughter-in-law LARA TRUMP to become a co-chair of the RNC once RONNA McDANIEL leaves her post atop the organization, NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan report. MICHAEL WHATLEY, the RNC’s general counsel, is Trump’s preferred choice to fill the other co-chair slot. Lara “has worked closely with the committee for several years, and she is seen as a prolific fund-raiser. She also would be trusted by the Trump family, which has put an imprimatur on almost every aspect of the former president’s political life and which closely watches how resources are allocated.” Trump confirmed the reporting in a statement yesterday evening, adding the recommendation that CHRIS LaCIVITA, one of his top aides, become COO of the RNC and labeling the trio as “highly talented, battle-tested, and smart.” Read the full statement … More from Alex Isenstadt FEAT OF THE DESK — Decision Desk HQ, which has become one of the most-watched providers of real-time election results and race calls, announced yesterday that it will base one of the only decision-desk operations for 2024 at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy. Read the announcement
| | | | A message from American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers:   | | | MORE POLITICS
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Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee are facing off in the California Senate Democratic primary. | Richard Vogel/AP Photo | GOING TO CALIFORNIA — NY Mag’s Rebecca Traister digs in deep on the dynamics of the California Senate Democratic primary between Reps. ADAM SCHIFF, KATIE PORTER and BARBARA LEE. The race has turned into something of a brawl for the future of the party in the Golden State. Schiff, the conventional frontrunner, finds himself on a glide path to the general election — a reality underscored by Lee, who tells Traister she has heard from multiple supporters a sentiment such as: “Barbara, we love you, but Adam Schiff just looks like a senator …” The road ahead: “Should Porter (or, less likely, Lee) nip past [Republican STEVE] GARVEY in March, Schiff could find himself in a much tougher two-person fight for the seat — a fight that reflects the divides of a party rived by the war in Gaza, which has pitted younger, more progressive voters against a hidebound Establishment.” About last night … “Katie Porter opens door to presidential age limits in Senate debate,” by Melanie Mason and Chris Cadelago More top reads:
- New Jersey first lady TAMMY MURPHY entered the Senate race to replace BOB MENENDEZ as a heavy favorite, but she’s facing fierce backlash from progressives and Democratic rank-and-file alike. In reality, Murphy may have mistaken her built-in political status within the party for automatic support, Matt Friedman writes.
AMERICA AND THE WORLD WAR WARNING — Biden yesterday “warned Israel against invading the southern Gaza city of Rafah, insisting that the U.S. would not support any operation that fails to account for the safety of the Palestinians who fled there under Israeli orders,” Adam Cancryn writes. “Biden’s remarks during a joint appearance with KING ABDULLAH II of Jordan mirrored the message that U.S. officials have privately relayed to Israeli leaders in an effort to head off a planned ground invasion of the city. The president also leveled a rare measure of direct criticism at Israel over its broader war, saying ‘too many of the over 27,000 Palestinians killed in this conflict have been innocent civilians and children.’” Related read: “France proposes Hezbollah withdrawal, border talks for Israel-Lebanon truce,” by Reuters’ Laila Bassam, Maya Gebeily and John Irish FOR YOUR RADAR — “U.S. Seizes Iranian-Tied Cargo Jet Grounded in Argentina,” by WSJ’s Ryan Dubé POLICY CORNER TIKTOK ON THE CLOCK — Despite TikTok’s fall from grace among the D.C. crowd over the past year, the furor for an outright ban has subsided thanks to the company’s lobbying efforts on both sides of the aisle, Rebecca Kern, Hailey Fuchs and Brendan Bordelon report, which have included “comparing a ban to the failed 1920s policy of Prohibition.” Meanwhile: Since the Biden-Harris campaign rolled out a TikTok account on Sunday, it has racked up more than 67,000 followers. More from Samantha Latson DISINFORMATION DIGEST — “The Next Front in the Vaccine Wars,” by Joanne Kenen for POLITICO Magazine: “Four years after Covid hit and fueled growing vaccine hesitancy, the rollout of the RSV vaccine this fall and winter offered a case study unfolding in real time.”
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Bill Cassidy and Tommy Tuberville bonded over King Cake. Jon Stewart picked up where he left off. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the annual State of the Net conference yesterday in downtown D.C.: Reps. Don Beyer (D-Va.) and Glenn Ivey (D-Md.), Deirdre Mulligan, Alan Davidson, Brendan Carr, Anna Gomez, Diana Oo, Jason Livingood, Rebecca Kern, Ashley Gold, Naomi Nix, Heather West, Umair Javed, Mark Colón, Alvaro Bedoya, Cristiano Lima-Strong, Brian Fung, Keith Sonderling, Shane Tews, Christopher Lewis, Harley Geiger, Robert Silvers, Jeffrey Zubricki, Jerry Golden, Rob Pegoraro, Chris Lewis, Tim Lordan, Lauren Culbertson Grieco, Maria Curi, Jess Miers, John Perrino, Jennifer Taylor Hodges, Richard Whitt, Maura Colleton Corbett, Amy Schatz, Rachel Wolbers and Connor Farry. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Axel Springer, the parent company of POLITICO, is announcing its first-ever U.S. leadership team: Kelly Althoff will be VP of portfolio management and investments, Christian Baesler will be senior adviser for strategy and investments, Amelia Binder will be VP head of U.S. government affairs, Gabriel Brotman will be U.S. COO, Jessica Dybfest will be operations manager, Maggie Milnamow will be SVP head of U.S. group sales, Marshall Monda will be senior legal counsel head of U.S. compliance and privacy, Nick Pacilio will be VP head of U.S. comms, Chelsea Pollack will be VP head of U.S. people and culture and Eliot Stempf will be VP head of U.S. information security. TRANSITIONS — Bryson Henriott is now press assistant for Speaker Mike Johnson. He previously was legislative correspondent/special assistant for Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.). … Mike Hahn is joining Frontline Strategies as president of digital strategy and operations. He previously was EVP of digital at National Public Affairs, and is a Trump 2020 campaign alum. … Rebecca Konolige is joining the Zero Emission Transportation Association as director of federal affairs. She most recently was a professional staff member on the House Natural Resources Energy and Mineral Resources Subcommittee. ENGAGED — Tony Hanagan, senior floor assistant for Senate Republicans, proposed to Laura Valentine, VP and chief of staff at the Complete Agency, on Friday night outside Eastern Market. They met in D.C. in November 2020. Pic — Carianne Lee, director of climate policy and appropriations for Pioneer Public Affairs, and Matt Boegner, director of data architecture and AI for Silectis, got engaged in front of the Capitol on Saturday morning. Pic BIRTHWEEK (was Wednesday): Austin Myhre of Sen. Raphael Warnock’s (D-Ga.) office HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) … Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas) … Betsy Ankney … former Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon … Chip Smith … former Rep. Filemon Vela (D-Texas) … Lila Nieves-Lee … Jeffrey Rosen of the National Constitution Center … George Kundanis … Bill McCarren … Bloomberg’s Stacie Sherman … i360’s Brian Szmytke … Jeanne Mancini … KPMG’s Sven Erik Holmes … Mae Stevens … Fox News’ Cailin Kearns … Samantha Slater … Reuters’ Mike Spector … Jill Barclay … SpyTalk’s Jeff Stein … Alex Hinson … Blackstone’s Elizabeth Lewis … Siemens’ Camille Johnston … Raven Reeder … Meta’s Alex Burgos … Megan Becker … Mark Cohen … POLITICO’s Daniel Payne … Emily Minster of Rep. Jamaal Bowman’s (D-N.Y.) office … Kirby Eule of Touchdown Strategies Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers: EPA is set to finalize a regulation designed to end the sale of new gas and diesel cars. This proposal would force automakers to phase out internal combustion engine vehicles – the most widely available, accessible, and affordable cars driven by the majority of Americans. The Biden EPA is rushing to do this before we are ready, and regardless of what American drivers want, need, and can afford.
Even worse, phasing out gas and diesel-powered vehicles for electric vehicles jeopardizes our hard-won American energy security, which is built on American-made and American-grown fuels. Instead, we will be reliant on China, the dominant player in the electric vehicle supply chain now and for the foreseeable future.
President Biden: It’s not too late to act. Stop the EPA’s misguided car ban. We need vehicle policies that work for all Americans, our economy, and our energy security. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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