THE BUZZ: ICING ON THE CAKE — A ban on gay marriage was once such a wedge issue in California that in 2008 Republicans used it to energize conservative voter turnout. Now, Democrats are ready to turn the tables. LGBTQ leaders and Democratic strategists say they don’t just plan to repeal the zombie text of Proposition 8 from the California constitution this November. They aim to use the issue to boost Democratic voter engagement in races up and down the ballot, especially among young progressives — many of whom have been lukewarm about a second term for President Joe Biden. “They may feel some discontent about the top of the ticket, but really feel strongly about LGBTQ equality or abortion rights,” said Tony Hoang, president of Equality California. “We can use this as a tool to encourage them to turn out.” Groups behind the Prop 8 repeal effort plan to formally launch their campaign today. Voters are all but guaranteed to approve it — one recent poll from USC researchers found more than 73 percent of likely voters would support a repeal. Organizers, including Assemblymember Evan Low, have warned that same-sex marriage rights could be in jeopardy with the conservative majority on the Supreme Court after the justices overturned a long-standing federal right to an abortion. “Nothing should be taken for granted,” Low said. They're also leaning into the idea that the marriage debate will mobilize Democratic and independent voters amid a wave of anti-trans political rhetoric and legislation passed in Republican statehouses across the country. Organizers said their efforts could lift Democratic candidates in the state’s swing congressional races, which could help deliver a House majority. The ballot effort, titled the Freedom to Marry measure, is being led by Equality California, the Trans Latina Coalition and the Human Rights Campaign, a trifecta of the most powerful LGBTQ groups in the state. Other backers include the ACLU of Northern California and Planned Parenthood. Hoang said the campaign is especially focused on tight House races in Orange and Riverside counties, areas where Democrats believe that suburban voters are more inclined to support marriage equality. One such district is CA-41, a purple district straddling conservative parts of Riverside County and the deep-blue pockets of the Coachella Valley, home to the LGBTQ bastion of Palm Springs. Democratic challenger Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor who is gay, has blasted longtime Republican Rep. Ken Calvert over his past track record on LGBTQ-rights bills. It’s a rematch from the 2022 cycle, when Calvert beat Rollins by about four percentage points. Rollins said the repeal of Prop 8 will drive turnout among voters who are “motivated to push back against the culture war focus that’s become central to Calvert’s campaign.” He has criticized Calvert for his prior votes to oppose hate crime protections for gay people and prevent LGBTQ people from openly serving in the military. Calvert did, however, vote for the Respect for Marriage Act that Congress passed in late 2022 to federally recognize gay marriage and require states to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states. He has called the emphasis on LGBTQ issues a distraction. “Those are settled issues in California. Those things aren’t going anywhere in a state like ours,” he said. “People want to talk about what’s important to them.” Christian Grose, a political science professor and the lead pollster on the USC survey, said his research suggests the issue could be a slight boost for Democrats. He noted that the poll found even 43 percent Republican voters support repealing Prop 8, along with 71 percent of independents and third party voters. “I could see that as a tool for Democrats to juice their turnout a little bit,” Grose said. “But, on the other hand, it’s so overwhelmingly supported that a lot of people that aren’t hardcore Democrats are going to vote for the amendment.” GOOD MORNING. Happy Wednesday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. Now you can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts now. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced. |
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