| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | OUCH — “Worse than you can imagine: Haley loses to ‘none of these candidates’ in Nevada,” by Chris Cadelago: “[NIKKI] HALEY’s second-place drubbing to the disembodied alternative on the ballot came in an otherwise no-stakes primary that will not award delegates to the Republican Party’s presidential nominating convention.” Biden rolls … Full results CHUG THE SWAMP — “Trump, on eve of fundraiser with Anheuser-Busch lobbyist, defends company,” by Hailey Fuchs: “Anheuser-Busch paid $260,000 to [JEFF] MILLER’s firm in 2023, according to lobbying disclosure filings.”
|  Mitch McConnell’s job is “only going to get harder" with Trump as the likely GOP presidential nominee | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo | UNEASY LIES THE HEAD — Congress’ two senior-most Republicans are reeling after a series of high-profile flops that are raising fresh questions about their futures. House Republicans’ eye-popping failure last night to muster the votes for the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS and the subsequent implosion of a $17.6 billion aid package for Israel has once again put a spotlight on Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s inability to shepherd his slim majority. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Rotunda, critics — and, privately, even some allies — of Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL are starting to question how long the Kentucky Republican can maintain his influence. A LION IN WINTER? Let’s start with McConnell: The implosion of the Senate’s bipartisan border deal at the hands of his fellow Senate Republicans this week has cast cast new doubt on the veteran leader’s once formidable ability to corral his diverse conference. To recap: An outspoken proponent of Ukraine aid, McConnell saw the Senate’s MAGA element complicating the path to getting tens of billions of needed dollars to Kyiv. So he embraced a push to link tough new border policies to the foreign-aid supplemental, deputizing conservative Sen. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.) to cut a deal. Now after months of negotiations, the deal Lankford cinched was torn to tatters in the span of 48 hours thanks to the opposition of McConnell’s political nemesis, DONALD TRUMP. The vast majority of GOP senators — including some of McConnell’s closest allies — will vote today against even debating it. What’s more, McConnell will be immediately faced with a fresh challenge: Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER will quickly move after the failed procedural vote, Playbook has learned, to start debate on a new supplemental — one without the border package attached. We have no doubt that McConnell, who believes deeply in the need to backstop the Ukrainians in their fight against Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s forces, is personally inclined to back the sprawling package, and many of his traditional allies agree. But it is in serious question whether he can manage — or will even try — to bring the rest of his conference along. The backdrop is stark: McConnell’s longtime critics, for one, are growing bolder. Sen. MIKE LEE (R-Utah) called the border deal a “betrayal” and is demanding new leadership. Sen. RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.) posted a meme mocking McConnell, while Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) explicitly called for McConnell to step down. “It’s not James Lankford’s fault. It’s Mitch McConnell’s fault,” Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) told Playbook. Added Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.): “These were real tactical errors that he's made — and, you know, I think his public opinion polls show it.” McConnell fires back this morning in an exclusive sitdown with our colleague Burgess Everett. He argues that his critics “had their shot” to vote him out as leader a year ago and failed. He blamed them for the party’s confounding, boomeranging strategy over the border. And he argued that solving the problems they identified requires working with Democrats. “The reason we’ve been talking about the border is because they wanted to, the persistent critics,” McConnell said. “You can’t pass a bill without dealing with a Democratic president and a Democratic Senate.” McConnell, of course, has outflanked and outlasted his critics for years, and he retains the confidence of most Senate Republicans, who can’t oust him mid-term even if they want to. Still, one senior GOP aide who admires the longtime leader said the crescendo in whispers is unmistakable: “Can Mitch continue doing this?” “He’s been an incredibly consequential and strategic leader, always thinking about where the conference needs to be and looking around the corners,” this person said. “None of that’s happening. It’s not the same.” What this episode has made plainly obvious is that (1) McConnell’s job, as Burgess puts it, is “only going to get harder” with Trump as the likely GOP presidential nominee, and that (2) there is no tenable way for McConnell to remain leader if Trump is elected. The two men haven’t spoken since before the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. The border fiasco — with Trump trying to kill the bill and McConnell striving to save it — only served to emphasize their very different views of politics. And, simply put, the Senate GOP leader can’t be at constant war with the leader of the party. “That’s oil and water,” Johnson told Playbook. “That wouldn’t work very well.” To be sure, it’s not clear McConnell would even want to try. He’s already the longest-serving party leader in Senate history. As Sen. KEVIN CRAMER (R-N.D.) told us yesterday, “The question for me would be, does McConnell want to put up with it?” JOHNSON’S BAD DAY: As for Johnson, it’s hard to be surprised by someone who hasn’t been very successful managing his conference in the first place, but somehow yesterday’s faceplant was still something to behold. Johnson pushed forward with the impeachment vote in the face of numerous red flags, expressing confidence throughout the day yesterday that he had the votes to oust Mayorkas. So much for that. Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.) — a respected former Marine officer and committee chair — made good on threats to oppose the articles, joining Reps. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.) and TOM McCLINTOCK (R-Calif.), who have long argued that policy differences aren’t grounds for impeachment. The bigger problem, though, was that Johnson and the rest of the GOP leadership team didn’t have a firm grasp on their whip count. They appeared to assume that Rep. AL GREEN (D-Texas.) — who’d been in the ER for surgery yesterday — wouldn’t show. But in a dramatic moment, he was wheeled into the chamber wearing scrubs to cast the decisive vote. That spurred a last-gasp effort to strongarm Gallagher into changing his vote, our colleagues Jordain Carney and Olivia Beavers report, with fellow Republicans warning the Wisconsin Republican of serious blowback from the base. It didn’t work. To be sure, this isn’t the end of the Mayorkas impeachment saga. Republicans say they’ll try again when they have full attendance (more on that below). Maybe they’ll ultimately succeed. Maybe they won’t. But regardless, it was a high-profile setback for the new speaker that was compounded by the decision to immediately press forward with a vote on the Israel aid bill, which failed to garner the necessary two-thirds margin under suspension of the rules, 250-180. Holding a failed vote in this case might have been politically defensible, to highlight Democrats’ opposition to the Israel funding. But that message got lost amid the botched impeachment narrative. The upshot is that Johnson is in bad shape right now. The Mayorkas vote cast serious doubt on any effort to impeach President JOE BIDEN, which has consumed a huge amount of oxygen for the House GOP. And, in about two weeks, he’ll have to somehow muscle government funding bills across the floor — which is sure to exacerbate tensions with right-wingers who are already mad about Johnson’s spending deal with Democrats. The biggest factor tamping down talk about another motion to vacate has been the sense that there’s no one else in the House GOP who could do the job any better than Johnson. But if he has any more days like yesterday, that idea might change fast. Related reads: “On the Border, Republicans Set a Trap, Then Fell Into It,” by NYT’s Carl Hulse … “Biden gets handed an immigration policy opening from the GOP. Can he take it?” by Jennifer Haberkorn and Sam Stein … “Why I Voted Against the Alejandro Mayorkas Impeachment,” by Mike Gallagher in WSJ Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network: Multi-cancer early detection tests have game-changing potential in the fight against cancer. By testing for dozens of cancers - including rare forms - at their earliest stages with a simple blood test, these tests could revolutionize early cancer detection once FDA-approved and clinical benefit is shown. Congress: pass H.R. 2407 and S. 2085 to create a pathway to access to these tests in Medicare to make time for patients and their families. Learn more. | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: SPEAKER SPURNS AXIOM — Johnson’s political operation has cut ties with its principal PAC fundraising firm, Fundraising Inc., which is owned by JEFF ROE’s Axiom political consulting empire, two people familiar with the matter told Daniel Lippman. No official reason was given to firm founder ALEXANDRA KENDRICK when she was notified of the decision a few weeks after Johnson became speaker, one of the people said. POLITICO reported last month that Trump has warned Republican politicians not to do business with Axiom given Roe’s key role in the super PAC of former primary rival RON DeSANTIS. Johnson had worked with Fundraising Inc., one of the biggest PAC fundraising firms in Washington, for seven years. He is now working with Republic Strategies, headed up by ASHLEE (REID) MOREHOUSE. A Johnson adviser declined to comment but noted that the speaker’s political operation has kept Axiom-affiliated general consultant JASON HEBERT, although the Washington Post reported on Tuesday that Hebert “is expected to start billing his work for Johnson through a company not tied to Axiom.” Kendrick declined to comment.
| | | | A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network:   Access to multi-cancer early detection tests in Medicare can make potential precious moments possible. Pass H.R. 2407 and S. 2085. Congress: Act now. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate will meet at noon. The House will meet at 9 a.m. for legislative business with last votes expected no later than 3 p.m. 3 things to watch …
- Scheduling a redo of the failed Mayorkas impeachment vote could be tricky for House Republican leaders. Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE, out for cancer treatments, is not expected to be voting again until next week at the earliest, and there’s another complication: Tuesday’s New York special election could change the chamber’s math yet again. If Democrat TOM SUOZZI triumphs, the vote could be delayed for weeks.
- The latest hot potato about to be dropped in Johnson’s lap? A new resolution from Reps. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.) and ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.) declaring Trump “did not engage in insurrection or rebellion against the United States” in a bid to insulate him from ballot access challenges under the 14th Amendment. It’s catnip to the MAGA base, but it’s probably not a vote swing-district Republicans are interested in taking this year. Will Trump make them do it anyway? More from The Hill
- Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN has accepted an invitation to testify later this month before the House Armed Services Committee, days after publicly apologizing for his decision to keep his recent hospitalization in the dark. The Feb. 29 hearing “is sure to be contentious,” Connor O’Brien writes.
At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. In the afternoon, the president will travel to New York City for three campaign receptions before returning to the White House in the evening. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and JOHN KIRBY will gaggle aboard Air Force One. VP KAMALA HARRIS will participate in a moderated conversation at the House Democratic Caucus Issues Conference with Rep. MORGAN McGARVEY (D-Ky.).
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH
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Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel speaks at a committee meeting in Dana Point, Calif., Jan. 27, 2023. | Jae C. Hong/AP | SO LONG, RONNA — RONNA McDANIEL is planning to step down as RNC chair after the conclusion of the South Carolina primary on Feb. 24, NYT’s Maggie Haberman, Shane Goldmacher, Jonathan Swan and Annie Karni scooped — a stunning move that further cements Trump’s iron grip on the Republican Party. The who: After South Carolina, Trump is “likely to promote the chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party, MICHAEL WHATLEY, as her replacement, according to several people familiar with the discussions. Under the arcana of the committee’s rules, however, Mr. Trump cannot simply install someone. A new election must take place, and Mr. Whatley could face internal party dissent.” The why: “Trump likes Mr. Whatley for one overwhelming reason, according to people who have discussed him with the former president: He is ‘a stop the steal guy,’ as one of the people described him. He endorses Mr. Trump’s false claims about mass voter fraud and Mr. Trump believes he did a good job delivering North Carolina, a 2020 swing state, to him." More top reads:
- Biden sailed to victory in the South Carolina Democratic primary on Saturday, but the state’s iffy turnout may not have helped its case for keeping its newly minted status as the first nominating state for the party, our colleague Brakkton Booker reports from Columbia.
- Trump in recent days has been fixated on Indiana, pushing baseless conspiracy theories about election officials in the Hoosier State, in what might be something of a test run for undermining the election in November, our colleague Adam Wren reports from Indianapolis.
MORE POLITICS
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Ron DeSantis speaks during a news conference on Feb. 5, 2024, in Miami Beach, Florida. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | RON (STILL) ON THE RUN — DeSantis is holding press conferences attacking Biden. He’s sending troops to the southern border. He’s weighing in on legislative battles in Tallahassee. He’s posting videos on X blasting Democrats. If you didn’t know it, you’d think he’s running for president. It all echoes early 2023, when DeSantis was gearing up for his much-anticipated 2024 run, Gary Fineout writes from Tallahassee. “Now less than two weeks after he returned to Florida as a failed White House aspirant, people within the DeSantis orbit say the governor is reminding Floridians that he’s still the state’s top official — while looking to his political future.” What’s next for DeSantis: “Several supporters granted anonymity to speak candidly about the governor said they expect him to run for president again and predict he will start raising money for state-level political activities later in the year. He’s also called dozens of donors to thank them for their help — a surprising move for a governor not known for his people skills.” More top reads:
- Governors across the country — many of which are future presidential contenders — are increasingly using their State of the State speeches as a bully pulpit to land blows on their counterparts in far-off state capitals, our colleague Mia McCarthy writes.
- Win the Era Action Fund, a nonprofit issue advocacy group with ties to PETE BUTTIGIEG, “raised $370,240 in 2022, up from just $61,654 the year before … a modest but still eyebrow-raising haul that signals his allies are gradually ramping up Buttigieg's political apparatus,” National Review’s Audrey Fahlberg reports.
THE WHITE HOUSE COMING SOON TO A TRUMP AD NEAR YOU — Special counsel ROBERT HUR has wrapped up his investigation into Biden’s handling of classified documents and “written a sharply critical report,” WSJ’s Aruna Viswanatha and Sadie Gurman report. While Hur is not expected to recommend criminal charges, “the report, which could add a dynamic to the 2024 presidential contest, is expected to be shared with Congress and made public in the coming days,” and will provide new details about how the documents were stored.
| | | | A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network:   Access to multi-cancer early detection tests in Medicare can make potential precious moments possible. Pass H.R. 2407 and S. 2085. Congress: Act now. | | | TRUMP CARDS
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Donald Trump sits in New York State Supreme Court during his civil fraud trial on January 11, 2024, in New York City. | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images | IMMUNITY IDOL — Now that the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that Trump is not immune from prosecution for crimes he’s alleged to have committed as president, the fate of his broad immunity claim is now likely to rest with a Supreme Court that he remade in his own image. Trump “now faces a key deadline of next Monday to ask the Supreme Court to step in — and once he does, the justices will face a set of options with obvious ramifications for the presidential campaign,” Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein write. “They could hear Trump’s appeal on an accelerated schedule. They could take their time — and in doing so, essentially guarantee that the federal election-subversion trial could not occur before November. Or they could simply decline to hear Trump’s appeal at all — a move that would allow the trial proceedings, which have been stalled for nearly two months, to resume quickly.” Related read: “How Long Will Trump’s Immunity Appeal Take? Analyzing the Alternative Timelines,” by Just Security’s Norman Eisen, Matthew Seligman and Joshua Kolb More top reads:
AMERICA AND THE WORLD MIDDLE EAST LATEST — “Hamas Gives ‘Positive’ Reply to Gaza Truce Plan, but Odds Remain Murky,” by NYT’s Zolan Kanno-Youngs, Adam Rasgon and Michael Levenson: “Hamas has answered a proposal that could halt fighting in the Gaza Strip, release the remaining hostages there and allow more aid to reach desperate Palestinians, U.S. and Qatari leaders said on Tuesday, offering a hint of wary optimism after four brutal months of war. “But no deal has been struck, and it is not clear how Israel will respond to Hamas’s counterproposal. And as negotiations continued, Palestinians who have fled into tents and shelters in Rafah, on Gaza’s southern border with Egypt, said they were wondering if they should flee again after Israel suggested that it could send ground troops into the city to root out Hamas militants.” Inside the proposal: “Hamas proposes 135-day Gaza truce with total Israeli withdrawal,” Reuters On the ground: “Iran is not directing Houthis or other groups to launch attacks, Iran’s U.N. envoy says,” by NBC’s Dan De Luce Related read: “Israel Privately Estimates as Many as 50 Hostages Could Be Dead,” by WSJ’s Summer Said, Nancy Youssef and Jared Malsin NO MORE MR. NICE GUY — After our colleague Nahal Toosi published a piece yesterday wondering if Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is “too nice” to hold his post, Blinken responded to a reporter’s question on the subject in Qatar: “In his polite style, Blinken shrugged off the characterization — but suggested that he knows how to be stern when needed,” Matt Berg writes. “I’ll let others speak to my character, and all I can say is that most people who assume the position that I have the great privilege of assuming now don’t get there by being nice all the time,” Blinken said. Read the column
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Tucker Carlson is in Moscow to interview Vladimir Putin. Kirsten Gillibrand convened a bipartisan bowl at the White House lanes. Nella Domenici is taking a page out of Nick Begich’s book — literally. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill at an event hosted by the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition and the African Diplomatic Corps in honor of Black History Month recognizing the global health security legacy of the Congressional Black Caucus: CBC Chair Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), Reps. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D-Calif.), Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.), Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.) and Glenn Ivey (D-Md.), John Nkengasong, Courtney Billington, Derek Spencer, Jenelle Krishnamoorthy and Liz Schrayer. — SPOTTED at the Value In Electing Women PAC 2024 Kick-Off reception yesterday: GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), Sens. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Katie Britt (R-Ala.), Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), Reps. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.), Stephanie Bice (R-Okla.), Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), Laurel Lee (R-Fla.), Erin Houchin (R-Ind.), Jen Kiggans (R-Va.), Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Carol Miller (R-W.Va.), Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.), Jack Bergman (R-Mich.), Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.), Young Kim (R-Calif.), Kat Cammack (R-Fla.), Beth Van Duyne (R-Texas) and Michelle Steel (R-Calif.), Julie Conway, Tom Reynolds and Kathryn Lehman, Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, Lindley Sherer, Lucia Lebens, Blair Larkins, Ashlee Morehouse, Emily Lampkin and Sara Morris. — The Green New Deal Network hosted a fifth anniversary celebration for the Green New Deal at The Ugly Mug yesterday, where Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and Green New Deal National Director Kaniela Ing all delivered remarks, with Markey leading the attendees in a chorus of “Happy Birthday” for the Green New Deal with Costco sheet cakes displayed on stage. MEDIA MOVE — Linda Wertheimer is retiring from NPR after more than 50 years with the organization. Read the announcement FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Kirsten Allen is now comms director for VP Kamala Harris. She was previously Harris’ press secretary and is an HHS, Harris 2020 and Hillary Clinton 2016 alum. The announcement was made at a VP staff retreat last week. “Kirsten’s leadership and keen communications skills have helped Americans understand the Vice President’s transformational role in pursuing the Biden-Harris Administration’s agenda,” chief of staff Lorraine Voles said in a statement to Playbook. “She is a tireless and committed colleague, and all of us in the Office of the Vice President are better for her work to ensure we are reaching out to audiences across the country and the world.” TRANSITION — Madison Hughes is now a legislative aide for Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.). She previously was a legislative aide for Rep. Donald Norcross (D-N.J.). HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) … Gay Talese (92) … Dave Levinthal … Wildlife Conservation Society’s Monica Medina … POLITICO’s Patricia Iscaro … PBS’ Laura Barrón-López … Beth Frerking … IMF’s Jeff Kearns … former Reps. Allen West (R-Fla.), Stephen Fincher (R-Tenn.), Doc Hastings (R-Wash.) and Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) … John Criscuolo of Squire Patton Boggs … Emily Hampsten … Patrick Ferrise … Judge James Gilbert of the U.S. Postal Service … Carleton Bryant … Community Change’s Jasmine Nazarett … Jessica Kershaw ... Miguel L’Heureux ... Christine Grimaldi … Jeff Marschner … Invariant’s Mary Beth Stanton … Justin Papp … triplets Josh, Rachel and Eric Mogil (35) Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network: Cancer stops the clock for more than six hundred thousand people every year, robbing those individuals and their families of their contributions and the precious moments they could have experienced. But by supporting access to breakthroughs in cancer innovation, Congress takes an active role in the fight against our country’s second most common cause of death, literally making time for patients and their loved ones. Multi-cancer early detection tests have the potential to revolutionize early cancer detection by screening for dozens of cancers, including rare forms, with a simple blood test.
Congress: Pass H.R. 2407 and S. 2085 and create a pathway to access to these tests in Medicare once FDA-approved and clinical benefit is shown to help create time for milestones and precious moments.
Fight Cancer. Make Time. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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