Tuesday, July 25, 2023

📖Why the Death of this Growth Story Doesn’t Matter

Good morning. 2023 was supposed to be a fantastic year for the economy, at least in China. That's...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. 2023 was supposed to be a fantastic year for the economy, at least in China. That's because the country's harsh Covid-era lockdown policies came to an end in late 2022. But instead of a flourishing economy built by repressed consumer demand to go out, China's economy has instead stalled out.

That lack of a growth story isn't hurting the rest of the world too much. The U.S. is in the opposite camp – concerns over a steep recession have instead been guided more toward a soft landing as the labor market and corporate earnings have held up well as inflation has been crushed over the past year.

Investors can still be mindful of China, given its impact on global commodity demand, as well as an indicator of global manufacturing. But China can't manufacture services that U.S. consumers are demanding right now, such as vacations.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 35,411.24 +0.52%
S&P 4,554.64 +0.40%
NASDAQ 14,058.87 +0.19%
*As of market close
Markets closed higher on Monday, ahead of a big week for big tech.
Oil jumped 2.4 percent, closing at $78.92 per barrel.
Gold dipped 0.5 percent, last going for $1,956 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded lower, with bitcoin at $29,115 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Boring Companies Could Give Your Portfolio Safety and Growth Now
One of the truisms about investing is that holding shares of companies with steady, but low growth over time can lead to good results. While it may lack the excitement of getting into a top tech trend, having a few stocks of boring companies can round out a portfolio.

These companies can include any good or service, but typically the most boring companies offering great returns will provide a service to businesses rather than having a consumer-facing operation.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: MillerKnoll (MLKN)
Michael Volkema, a director at Millerknoll (MLKN) recently added 13,584 shares. The buy increased his position by 7 percent, and came to a total cost of $230,426.

He was joined by 3 other directors, who bought on the same day at different prices. The smallest insider buy came to just under $21,000. Company executives have been buyers in the past year as well, with MillerKnoll's President and CEO picking up shares last October, at a price near that of today's.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Axos Financial (AX)
Nevada-based bank Axos Financial (AX) is now up for the year, as shares have recovered following the bank stock selloff in the spring. One trader sees shares trending lower in the weeks ahead.

That's based on the August $40 puts. With 24 days until expiration, 5,056 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 131, for a 39-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.75 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Businesses Hit by Heat Wave

The summer heat wave has created several new record highs. It's also potentially impacting U.S. productivity to the tune of $100 billion annually. That's due to a number of factors, from the health impact of those who get heat stroke, to the strain on the power grid from high demand for cooling.
Shiller Warns Housing Market May Be Nearing Its Peak

Economist Robert Shiller notes that home prices have made steady gains since 2012, but may have now peaked. Part of the reason is rising interest rates, which influence new buyers and keep homeowners in existing home. That could lead to a pullback in home prices in time, even with home supplies near a record low.
IPO Market Perks Up

The market for initial public offerings (IPOs) of companies hit a low in 2022, but has started to rebound this year. The launch of direct-to-consumer beauty brand Oddity (ODD) indicates that companies going public could fare well in markets, provided they go public at a reasonable price with some upside potential for early buyers.
Blackstone Assets Top $1 Trillion

Asset manager Blackstone (BX) reports that its total assets have now topped $1 trillion this year. The move higher was fueled by investments that the company made in insurance companies and real estate investment trusts (REITs). Blackstone is now just one of a few asset managers with over $1 trillion in assets.
Twitter Rebrands to "X"

Social media platform Twitter is removing its bird logo, instead rebranding under "X." The change was announced over the weekend by owner Elon Musk. A new logo is also adopted, although that may also see some changes in the future. Twitter's CEO also noted that there will be more features on the platform coming soon.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
BDX 5.694%
BIDU 5.06%
KEY 3.937%
DFS 3.691%
FCX 3.681%
BOTTOM
SIRI 15.254%
ISRG 4.058%
AES 3.98%
GILD 3.764%
MRNA 3.306%

Quote of the Day
Beyond a 3 month view we would be much more cautious because: 1. Markets always make new lows into a recession (on average 11 months after it starts). The yield curve, Senior Loans Officer Survey, Money supply are consistent with a recession.
- Andrew Garthwaite, Credit Suisse global equity strategist, on why markets may trend lower following earnings season, given the number of big-picture issues that have historically pointed to a recession.

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