Tuesday, July 25, 2023

Same-sex marriage gets a rematch

Presented by Connected Commerce Council: Inside the Golden State political arena
Jul 25, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook

By Dustin Gardiner, Lara Korte and Sejal Govindarao

Presented by Connected Commerce Council

Al-Farabi Syrlybaev, center, from Moscow, smiles after getting married to Maksim Maslovskii, from St. Petersburg, right, at City Hall in San Francisco, Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2023. In a state known to set the pace for the rest of the country on progressive policies, and one where its governor made news by issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples while serving as the mayor of San Francisco, California lawmakers will attempt to enshrine marriage   equality into the state's constitution. The effort comes 15 years after a voter-approved initiative, called Proposition 8, temporarily banned the state from recognizing same-sex marriages. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Al-Farabi Syrlybaev, center, from Moscow, smiles after getting married to Maksim Maslovskii, from St. Petersburg, right, at City Hall in San Francisco, Tuesday, Feb. 14, 2023. In a state known to set the pace for the rest of the country on progressive policies, and one where its governor made news by issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples while serving as the mayor of San Francisco, California lawmakers will attempt to enshrine marriage equality into the state's constitution. The effort comes 15 years after a voter-approved initiative, called Proposition 8, temporarily banned the state from recognizing same-sex marriages. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu) | AP

DRIVING THE DAY: Law enforcement could be getting closer to solving one of California’s most scrutinized political mysteries.

A married couple who worked at the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor has been served a search warrant in connection with the audio leak last year of a conversation between the labor fed chief and three city council members, per reporting from the Los Angeles Times.

The warrant for Santos Leon and Karla Vasquez cited the penal codes for eavesdropping and destroying or concealing evidence, per the Times’ source.

PLUS: After nearly getting derailed by the hotel workers’ strike, dozens of state leaders are in Los Angeles today for the Democratic Governors Association’s annual summer conference. But there’s going to be one notable absence. More on that below …

THE BUZZ — LOOKING FOR A LANDSLIDE: When it comes to repealing the zombie language of California's ban on same-sex marriage, LGBTQ lawmakers and advocates don’t just want a win — they want a blowout.

Supporters say the rationale is twofold: The outcome in California could provide a model to other states looking to repeal vestiges of marriage bans elsewhere, and the campaign could help defeat anti-transgender and anti-LGBTQ legislation across the country.

The Legislature voted this month to put a measure on the November 2024 ballot to repeal Proposition 8, the amendment Californians approved in 2008 to outlaw gay marriage.

Same-sex marriage is now legal, of course. But Assemblymember Evan Low, who carried the repeal measure, said the state needs to erase text in the state constitution because there’s a risk it could be made illegal again under a conservative U.S. Supreme Court. Low told Playbook that he’s aiming for a more than 20-point margin of victory.

“I’m hopeful that we will be above the 70+ percentile to send a clear message that it is not politically expedient to throw the LGBT community under the bus,” said Low, former chair of the LGBTQ caucus. “The Supreme Court has shown us who they are, and they’re coming after us.”

A 70-30 margin would be rare for a statewide ballot measure. Even last year’s most popular ballot question — Proposition 1, enshrining abortion rights — passed with less than 67 percent.

Prop. 8 passed with just over 52 percent in 2008 even as President Barack Obama won the state with 61 percent.

LGBTQ leaders are hopeful considering the dramatic shift in public opinion over gay marriage in the intervening years. One survey found that 73 percent of likely voters support the amendment to remove Prop. 8’s text, while 26 percent oppose it. The poll, shared exclusively with POLITICO by the advocacy group Equality California, included 1,200 voters surveyed this spring by EMC Research in Oakland. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Nationally, a majority of adults, 61 percent, support same-sex marriage while 31 percent are opposed, according to a 2019 Pew Research Center survey. That’s almost a 30-point shift from public sentiment in the early 2000s.

Still, advocates say they aren’t taking anything for granted, with more than 500 anti-LGBTQ bills having been introduced in statehouses this year.

Their anxiety intensified with the shaky rollout of the Prop. 8 repeal effort, which was announced in February with little fanfare. It evoked, for some organizers, painful memories of the 2008 loss, which many blamed on a disorganized opposition campaign as well as money and volunteers from the Mormon church.

Greg Burt, director of capitol engagement at the conservative California Family Council, said it’s too early to say whether religious organizations, including the Mormon and Catholic churches, would step into the fight this time in a significant way. Neither has taken a formal position.

The repeal side is preparing to launch a major campaign — one that includes more conservative, rural parts of the state — in coming months, said Tom Temprano, a spokesman for Equality California.

He noted that the measure to repeal Prop. 8 passed the floor of the Legislature with no opposition votes, though 16 Republicans skipped the roll call altogether. “The public has moved where we couldn’t have imagined 15 years ago,” Temprano said.

 

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WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

PHOTO OF THE DAY:

Workers inside Twitter headquarters watch from a window as a workman removes signage on Monday, July 24, 2023, in San Francisco.

Workers inside Twitter headquarters watch from a window as a workman removes signage on Monday, July 24, 2023, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez) | (AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez)

PROGRAMMING NOTE: California Playbook will be dark next week, July 31 to Aug. 4, for a little recess of our own. We'll be back in your inboxes on Monday, Aug. 7

 

HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.

 
 
FRESH INK

NO NEWSOM — California Gov. Gavin Newsom won’t be attending the Democratic Governors Association’s annual summer conference, which this year is held in Los Angeles. Newsom spokesperson Nathan Click confirmed the governor’s absence and said First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom will attend in the governor’s stead.

Unrelated to Newsom’s absence, the conference hit a bit of a snag earlier this summer when it appeared it might need to change locations because of ongoing strikes. The governor previously said he’d rather bow out than cross the picket line. Just last week, the association made a last-minute venue change from the Beverly Hilton to the Westin Bonaventure, which had managed to secure a contract with workers last month and avert the strike that has halted operations at other hotels.

DEM-ON-DEM WATCH — Rudy Salas may have a primary challenger.

State Sen. Melissa Hurtado is weighing a run for the Central Valley seat held by Republican Rep. David Valadao, POLITICO’s Jeremy B. White confirmed Monday. Hurtado’s potential entry could set up a clash with her fellow Democrat, who narrowly lost the district last fall.

“Senator Hurtado is taking a look at this seat,” consultant Lisa Gasperoni told Jeremy on Monday. “She’s been making calls.”

CA-22 is one of a handful of seats high on the target lists for both parties, as Democrats look to flip the House and Republicans try to maintain their white-knuckled hold on a thin majority. Dems are hoping the presidential election will boost turnout, but as Jeremy writes, “a contested primary could scramble those plans, particularly if Salas and Hurtado bludgeon one another before one takes on Valadao in the general election.” Both are moderate Democrats who have represented agriculture-dominated districts in the state Legislature.

 

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WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY

“Marilyn Flynn, ex-USC dean in corruption case with Ridley-Thomas, sentenced to 3 years probation,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Matt Hamilton: “Marilyn Flynn, the former dean of USC’s social work program who admitted to bribing Los Angeles County Supervisor Mark-Ridley-Thomas in exchange for his help securing the renewal of a county contract, was sentenced Monday to 18 months of home confinement.”

“San Francisco Mayor London Breed’s brother could be released from prison within a year” by The San Francisco Standard’s Jonah Owen Lamb: “A San Francisco judge resentenced Mayor London Breed’s brother, Napoleon Brown, to a shorter prison term on Monday in a more than two decades-long case involving a woman's death on the Golden Gate Bridge after a string of robberies.”

“How California is fighting meth with gift cards,” by CalMatters’ Marisa Kendall: “This model, known as “contingency management,” rewards people with financial incentives each time their drug tests are negative for stimulants. It’s been shown to have success in clinical trials — and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs has been using it for more than a decade — but it hasn’t taken off in California.”

“Biden’s Labor nominee is staying put, but the Californian may not help with Hollywood strikes,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Courtney Subramanian, Owen Tucker-Smith and Erin B. Logan: “But the White House, which has praised Su as a preeminent dealmaker, especially when it comes to California labor issues, has been reluctant to have her intervene in the Hollywood strikes.”

“Barbara Lee wins progressive Working Families Party endorsement,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Joe Garofoli: “Winning the battle for progressive voters will be key in California’s U.S. Senate campaign, and Oakland Rep. Barbara Lee just won an early round: She will be endorsed Monday by the Working Families Party, The Chronicle has learned.”

 

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BIRTHDAYS

WAS MONDAY: Michael Bordy … Lauren Rogen

WEEKEND WEDDING: Daniel Lippman, a White House and Washington reporter for POLITICO and former co-author of POLITICO Playbook, on Saturday married Sophia Narrett, an artist who shows with L.A.-based Kohn Gallery and Perrotin. Pics

 

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