| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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For Senate Democrats, the biggest questions surround the two most unpredictable members of their caucus — Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.). | Francis Chung/POLITICO | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | EYES EMOJI — “DeSantis’ Donors Want More Than a Reboot. They Want Him to ‘Clean House,’” by Rolling Stone’s Adam Rawnsley and Asawin Suebsaeng: “Last year, longtime Republican strategist ED ROLLINS was leading the Ready for Ron PAC, and announcing his plans to help [RON] DeSANTIS — then an undeclared 2024 candidate — take on Trump in the primary. … Today, Rollins says he is “not involved” anymore in the pro-DeSantis efforts. “‘I don’t think it’s the campaign’s fault at all; it’s his,” Rollins tells Rolling Stone. ‘I think he’s been a very flawed candidate. … When you get into these culture wars the way that he has, the vast majority of people don’t understand what they are.’” He added: “At this point in time, I would be shocked if [DONALD] TRUMP were not the nominee.” SURVEYING THE SENATE MAP — Summer recess is here: The House and Senate both left town Thursday, leaving a very long to-do list behind. Expect to hear plenty more about that as August rolls on — including the rising threat of a government shutdown later this year. But with the break in legislative business, we thought we’d refocus on the political landscape — which is set to get a lot more scrutiny in the coming weeks as Hill reporters parachute in to cover developing races. We’ll start with the Senate, and the three biggest unanswered questions we’re tracking about 2024: 1. What will the meddlesome moderates do? For Senate Democrats, the biggest questions surround the two most unpredictable members of their caucus — Sens. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) and KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.). Both, as they are wont to do, have been coy about their plans, which could dictate whether Democrats have a shot at keeping their one-seat majority in a tough cycle. Sinema has the bank account of someone seeking a second term — she has $10.7 million to spend, per this month’s FEC reports. But she’s yet to announce a re-elect amid serious doubts about her path to a second term after leaving the Democratic Party last year. The favorite for the Democratic nomination, Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO, outraised Sinema in Q2, and limited public polling of a hypothetical three-way race shows her in dire straits — and potentially paving the way for a GOP win. Manchin, meanwhile, is amid a Hamlet act — pondering whether to launch an uphill re-elect, launch an even more uphill third-party presidential bid or step back from politics entirely. Another Senate run would likely match him up with Republican Gov. JIM JUSTICE, who has sky-high approval ratings, considerable wealth, a checked business record and a long, testy relationship with Manchin. Democrats’ hopes for keeping the seat rest entirely on whether Manchin can be coaxed into one last showdown with his old rival. 2. Can the NRSC keep its headaches to a minimum? Already, Sen. STEVE DAINES’s hands-on policy as NRSC chair has shown signs of paying off, with his hand-picked GOP candidates showing early strength — none more so than Justice and Montana’s TIM SHEEHY. They are running in the two states where Republicans believe they can clinch the majority outright by defeating Manchin and Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.), with every other flip merely icing on the GOP cake. But there still could be messy primaries in West Virginia, where conservative Rep. ALEX MOONEY shows no signs of quitting, and in Montana, where Rep. MATT ROSENDALE is signaling that the GOP endorsement rush behind Sheehy isn’t going to keep him from a run on the hard right. There’s other potential problems on the far right: In Nevada, former state lawmaker JIM MARCHANT is already in the Senate race, KARI LAKE is hinting she’ll get in the Arizona race soon, and DAVID CLARKE is waiting in the wings in Wisconsin. All three are winnable races for the GOP — but probably not with candidates who have enthusiastically embraced Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election. 3. Will Republicans be able to expand the Senate map? While Republicans believe they can flip the Senate in Montana and West Virginia alone, it helps to have a Plan B, C and D, and they are hoping to be competitive in three key midwestern states that also happen to be presidential battlegrounds. Democrats are set to run well-known current officeholders in each race, and none will be tougher than three-term incumbent Sen. BOB CASEY JR. (D-Pa.). The NRSC and allies are hoping former hedge fund exec DAVID McCORMICK follows through on plans to announce a run sometime this fall. Next door in Ohio, national Republicans are staying out of the primary race for a chance to try and unseat Sen. SHERROD BROWN — leaving a free-for-all between businessman BERNIE MORENO, former state Rep. MATT DOLAN and Secretary of State FRANK LaROSE. And in Michigan, Democrat DEBBIE STABENOW’s retirement has opened up a seat in a competitive state where Republicans have struggled to win Senate races. Establishment Dems have coalesced behind Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN (who faces a long-odds primary challenge from actor, author and activist HILL HARPER), while the GOP field has been slow to develop. JOHN TUTTLE, vice chair of the New York Stock Exchange, is eyeing a run and is viewed favorably by the NRSC, with ex-Reps. PETER MEIJER and MIKE ROGERS also in the mix. Why does it matter? Competitive races in any of these states could draw Democratic resources away from the GOP’s top-tier targets, for one, and having a credible candidate running a competent, well-funded campaign might just be enough. Remember: In the last two presidential cycles, only one state has elected a senator of one party while awarding their state’s electoral votes to another. NO END IN SIGHT — With the Senate gone for five weeks, Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s abortion-related blockade of more than 250 military promotions is certain to continue until at least September. But Burgess Everett and Olivia Beavers report this morning that “there are signs that some Republicans are having a hard time accepting the one-man blockade.” “Summing up the feeling back in Alabama, Rep. JERRY CARL (R-Ala.) observed: ‘Mixed emotions. … Some people like it, some people don’t understand it. Some of our older military folks aren’t really happy about it; they understand it better than anybody.’” And among those caught in a tight spot by Tuberville’s blockade, Burgess and Olivia report, is fellow Alabama Sen. KATIE BRITT. Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API): Delivering Methane Progress: Americans want reliable and affordable energy with fewer emissions. And U.S. oil and natural gas companies are delivering - reducing methane emission rates with new technology and supporting smart federal regulation. That’s why it’s disappointing that a recent White House methane summit did not include U.S. oil and natural gas operators, who have made greater progress in reducing methane emissions from operations than any other industrial sector. | | | HIT THE ROAD, JOE — While Congress is out of town, President JOE BIDEN and his Cabinet are fanning out across the country next month to tout “Bidenomics” mark the anniversaries of three major bills that passed last summer: the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act and the PACT Act.
- Biden is spending this week in Rehoboth Beach but plans to hit Arizona, New Mexico and Utah next week to tout the IRA’s climate provisions.
- Vice President KAMALA HARRIS is headed to Wisconsin this week with Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO to talk broadband.
- Agriculture Secretary TOM VILSACK is headed to Oregon to highlight wildfire defense grants, while Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM heads to Puerto Rico and Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG hits Illinois and Texas.
- VA Secretary DENIS McDONOUGH will mark the first anniversary of the PACT Act in Maine, while HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA will be in Nevada and Oregon ahead of the IRA anniversary and Interior Secretary DEB HAALAND will travel to California to highlight water recycling projects.
- Education Secretary MIGUEL CARDONA is popping over to Maryland, meanwhile, and SBA Administrator ISABEL GUZMAN is headed to Michigan to talk about small business growth.
WEEK AHEAD — Monday: DeSantis interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier airs at 6 p.m. Harris interview with ABC’s Linsey Davis airs. DEVON ARCHER, former business partner of HUNTER BIDEN, testifies behind closed doors to House Oversight Committee. … Tuesday: Federal grand jury considering Jan. 6-related charges against Trump is scheduled to reconvene in Washington. … Wednesday: Harris holds a bilateral meeting with Mongolian PM LUVSANNAMSRAIN OYUN-ERDENE. … Thursday: Harris travels to Wisconsin with Raimondo and later participates in two campaign receptions. … Friday: July jobs numbers released.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API): Cutting Methane: Did you know methane emission rates from American energy production fell by nearly 66 percent in major producing regions since 2011? Even as natural gas produced in those regions increased by nearly 200 percent to meet demand. America’s natural gas and oil keeps innovating to solve big challenges. | | | | | BIDEN’S MONDAY — The president has nothing on his public schedule.
VP KAMALA HARRIS’ MONDAY — The VP’s national sit-down interview with ABC’s Linsey Davis will air.
THE HOUSE and SENATE are out. | | | | | | STOP SCROLLING (for just a minute!). Introducing a revamped California Playbook newsletter with an all-new team and a sharpened mission! Join Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner as they take you on an extraordinary journey through California's political landscape. From inside the Capitol in Sacramento to the mayor’s office in Los Angeles, and from the tech hub of Silicon Valley to even further beyond, we're your front-row ticket to the action. Subscribe for access to exclusive news, buzzworthy scoops and never-before-revealed behind-the-scenes details straight from the heart of California's political arena. Don't miss out — SUBSCRIBE TODAY and stay in the know! | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden sit on the beach underneath an umbrella in Rehoboth Beach, Del., Sunday, July 30, 2023. | Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH JUST POSTED — “Democrats worry their most loyal voters won’t turn out for Biden in 2024,” by WaPo’s Colby Itkowitz, Sabrina Rodriguez and Michael Scherer: “Their concern stems from a 10 percentage-point decline in Black voter turnout in last year’s midterms compared with 2018, a bigger drop than among any other racial or ethnic group … Democratic activists are cautioning that the party can’t afford to let support from Black voters slip.” DeSANTIS DOWNLOAD — Despite the need for a campaign reset to contend with Trump in the GOP presidential primary, DeSantis doesn’t seem ready to directly take on the former president. “After two days in which Trump roasted DeSantis and his lagging poll numbers from stages in Iowa and Pennsylvania, the Florida governor kicked off his campaign reboot in New Hampshire by trotting out well-worn rebuttals of the former president’s rhetoric,” Lisa Kashinsky reports from Rye, N.H. What DeSantis said: “If you’re up by so much, you would not be worried about anybody else. … So the fact that I’m taking the incoming from all of these people, not just him, but a lot of the other candidates, a lot of media — that shows people know that I’m a threat.” He continued: “When he hits me with the juvenile insults, I think that helps me. I don’t think voters like that. I actually don’t mind it at all. I think it’s just a reminder why there’s so many millions of voters who will never vote for him going forward.” POLICY PIPELINE — “A Left-Right Alliance Puts Iowa’s CO2 Pipelines on the Presidential Agenda,” by NYT’s Jonathan Weisman: “Liberal environmentalists and conservative landowners, led by the former congressman STEVE KING, are pressuring Republican candidates to oppose three Midwestern pipelines.” MORE POLITICS FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Planned Parenthood Action Fund is seeking to keep abortion rights at the forefront of Democrats’ 2024 strategy, rolling out endorsements today for Sens. TAMMY BALDWIN (D-Wis.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-N.Y.), JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) in their reelection bids. ALWAYS BE CLOSING — “Top Super PAC commands House Dems to talk up the economy,” by Brittany Gibson: “‘Go on offense, and build the contrast with the MAGA House Republicans immediately,’ the [House Majority PAC] memo says in bold, red and underlined text.” ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — "The future of abortion in Florida could hinge on Hispanic voters," by The 19th’s Mel Leonor Barclay in Broward County, Fla.: “A proposed ballot measure, backed by a coalition of reproductive rights groups under the banner Floridians Protecting Freedom, would guarantee the right to an abortion until fetal viability. … The campaign will have to navigate the erosion of support for Democrats in the state and overcome Republicans’ grip, which led to the six-week abortion ban signed into law by Gov. Ron DeSantis last spring.” CONGRESS CALENDAR CONUNDRUM — “Congress Faces Crunchtime in Fight Over Spending Cuts,” by WSJ’s Siobhan Hughes, Lindsay Wise and David Harrison: “Avoiding a government shutdown is only one of the must-do items before the fiscal year ends Sept. 30. Congress must also reauthorize the Federal Aviation Administration, pass a farm bill and reauthorize the National Flood Insurance Program so that home sales in flood-prone areas can continue. The House is due to return Sept. 12 and has four-day legislative sessions for each of the three weeks before Sept. 30. The Senate is due to return Sept. 5.” FRIENDLY FIRED — Democrats’ decision to set up a task force in the food stamp fight — effectively sidelining House Ag Committee ranking member DAVID SCOTT (D-Ga.) — is raising eyebrows among the party and beyond, Garrett Downs and Meredith Lee Hill report this morning. “A dozen current and former lawmakers, Hill staff and lobbyists said the creation of a parallel body to play attack dog on the issue is highly unusual, if not unprecedented. And it underscores just how dissatisfied Democrats have been with the Scott-led efforts to counter Republican attacks on SNAP thus far — and how nervous they are about GOP bids to rein in the country’s nutrition programs as part of this fall’s farm bill negotiations.” LAW AND ORDEN — “GOP lawmaker ‘screamed’ curse words inches from Senate pages’ faces and ‘shooed’ them, source says,” by NBC’s Brennan Leach and Julie Tsirkin: “Rep. DERRICK VAN ORDEN, R-Wis., told the teenagers to ‘get the f--- out’ of the rotunda, according to one source who witnessed the interaction and spoke on condition of anonymity. The source described Van Orden's demeanor as ‘physically aggressive’ toward the pages.”
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):   Working Together: Washington and energy producers can reduce methane emissions while strengthening America’s energy security. | | | TRUMP CARDS KEEP YOUR FRIENDS CLOSE — Trump’s camp is standing up Patriot Legal Defense Fund Inc. to “handle some of the crush of legal bills stemming from the investigations and criminal indictments involving him and a number of employees and associates,” NYT’s Maggie Haberman and Shane Goldmacher write. The legal-defense fund will be led by Trump hand MICHAEL GLASSNER, with LYNNE PATTON, a former aide for the Trump Organization and the Trump White House, also involved. Speaking of: CARLOS DE OLIVEIRA, the Mar-a-Lago property manager charged in the documents case, will appear before a magistrate judge today but has yet to hire a Florida-based lawyer, one of De Oliveira’s attorneys said, raising the prospect that the arraignment may be put off for now, NBC’s Katherine Doyle reports from Miami. Related reads: “Minor Characters Emerge to Play Key Roles in Trump Documents Case,” by NYT’s Alan Feuer, Maggie Haberman and Ben Protess … “What to expect at Carlos De Oliveira’s arraignment in Trump documents case,” by WaPo’s Perry Stein COMING SOON — Fulton County, Ga., DA FANI WILLIS spoke to Atlanta’s 11Alive news Saturday about her possible indictment of Trump over his attempts to overturn Georgia’s electoral votes: "The work is accomplished," she said. "We've been working for two-and-a-half years. We're ready to go." She also said about new security measures, "I think that the sheriff is doing something smart in making sure that the courthouse stays safe." WHO’S TALKING — Former New York Police Commissioner BERNIE KERIK “will meet with special counsel JACK SMITH in the coming days to discuss efforts taken by former Trump attorney RUDY GIULIANI to investigate potential election fraud in the wake of the 2020 election,” CNN’s Aaron Pellish reports. TRUMP SPEAKS — Trump sat down with Breitbart’s Matthew Boyle for an interview at his golf club in Bedminster, N.J., where he weighed in on Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL’s freeze-up moment last week. “That was a sad thing to see. He had a bad fall, I guess, and probably an after-effect of that. But it was also sad that he gave trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars to the Democrats to waste on the Green New Deal, destroying our oceans and destroying our great, beautiful vistas and plains all over our country with windmills that are very expensive energy. So that’s a very sad thing also.” He continued, stating that he believed Senate Republicans must move on from McConnell: “We have to have that. We have some people in the Senate that are fantastic and would be great at that position. But it’s just amazing he [McConnell] would do that — but at the same time, I hope he’s well.” NEW FRONTIERS OF CAPITALISM — “Meet PublicSq., the ‘anti-woke’ marketplace backed by Donald Trump Jr.,” by WaPo’s Taylor Telford POLICY CORNER THE LOAN LURCH — “Biden administration launches new income-driven student debt repayment plan,” by CNN’s Arlette Saenz: “The SAVE, or Saving on a Valuable Education, plan was finalized after the Supreme Court struck down President Joe Biden’s student debt forgiveness initiative in June. It marks a significant change to the federal student loan system that could lower monthly loan payments for some borrowers and reduce the amount they pay back over the lifetime of their loans.” THE CRYPTO COMEBACK — “‘Upside down world’: How crypto thrives even after attacks,” by Declan Harty: “Prices are surging in the market. The industry just won a big victory in federal court against the SEC, undercutting the agency’s central claim against crypto. House Republicans have advanced a crypto-friendly bill out of committee with support from across the aisle. And even Wall Street giants like BlackRock are jumping in, proposing to offer the masses an easy way to invest in crypto.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — “America’s Military Trails Russia and China in Race for the Melting Arctic,” by WSJ’s William Mauldin and Alan Cullison in Dutch Harbor, Alaska: “Once a lonely and largely impassable maritime expanse where countries worked together to extract natural resources, the Arctic is increasingly contested territory. As sea ice melts and traffic increases on the southern edges of the Arctic Ocean, governments are maneuvering in ways that mirror the great-power rivalries seen in lower latitudes.” FOR YOUR RADAR — “Suicide bomber at political rally in northwest Pakistan kills at least 44 people, wounds nearly 200,” by AP’s Anwarullah Khan and Riaz Khan in Khar, Pakistan BEYOND THE BELTWAY THE NEW CLIMATE REALITY — “Record heat waves illuminate plight of poorest Americans who suffer without air conditioning,” by AP’s Jesse Bedayn in Denver
| | | | HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Joe and Jill Biden enjoyed a beach day in Rehoboth. Kasie Hunt threw out the first pitch for the Orioles’ primetime thumping of the Yankees. Marianne Williamson has a message for Elon Musk. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Boyden Gray & Associates is relaunching as Boyden Gray PLLC, in honor of late founder C. Boyden Gray, who worked with partners Jonathan Berry, R. Trent McCotter and Michael Buschbacher to restructure the firm prior to his recent death. — Nayyera Haq is a credited producer on Steven Soderbergh’s latest series, “CommandZ,” which stars Michael Cera, Liev Schrieber and Roy Wood Jr. She currently is host for SiriusXM’s “Progress” and “P.O.T.U.S.” and is a Black News Channel and Obama State Department and White House alum. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) … Bill Bennett (8-0) … POLITICO’s Bill Duryea … Nelson Garcia … Gray Television’s Kevin Latek … Todd Novascone of Ogilvy GR … Edelman’s Brian McNeill … Cory Bythrow … U.S. Chamber’s Lexi Branson … Carolyn Weems of McUlsky Health Force … Matthew Ballard of BCW Global … Micah Spangler … Ben Ostrower … Lauren Allen … Dan McFaul … James Floyd of Sen. Dick Durbin’s (D-Ill.) office … Terry Schilling … Denis Dison … former Massachusetts Govs. Bill Weld and Deval Patrick … Jessica Lautz … former Rep. Adam Putnam (R-Fla.) … Sean Eldridge of Stand Up America … Dan Schnur … Mark Cuban … Marjorie Clifton … Liana Bishop … Ryan Fanning Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
| | | | A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API): Washington Rules Mustn’t Create Barriers to Innovation: An EPA draft rule – due out this Fall – to reduce methane emissions could have impacts in America and around the world.
When Europe faced a potentially catastrophic 75% decrease in their natural gas imports from Russia last year, it was America that sent energy supplies. If U.S. regulatory timelines hurt natural gas production, America and our allies would suffer and nations that don’t share our security or environmental interests could fill the gap.
It is counterproductive, then, for the Biden administration to hold summits on fixing the methane problem without including the American energy industry doing the most to reduce methane emissions. API remains committed to working with the EPA and across the administration on a final rule that reduces emissions, mitigates climate risks and enables U.S. oil and natural gas to deliver affordable, reliable and cleaner energy. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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