| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil | Follow Eric on Twitter | Send tips to ebazail@politico.com Good morning and welcome to Global Insider. Eric Bazail-Eimil here, a POLITICO fellow on the National Security team. Let’s dive into the latest power plays on the world stage. A lot of Western media coverage of Niger’s coup has focused on the implications for the country’s European and American allies. But today we’re going to home in on the perhaps more important consequences for neighboring Nigeria, West Africa’s local hegemon, and its newly-elected President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. West Africa has seen a number of other coups in recent years and as president of the continent’s most populous country, Tinubu has taken on a critical leadership role. He also last month became chair of the Economic Community of West African States, which Nigeria helped to create and has traditionally been Africa’s most effective regional forum at resolving conflicts, but has recently struggled in its efforts to return countries in revolt to democracy. What happens in Niger is a test for Tinubu's foreign policy and for ECOWAS. “Not only will failure to act send a signal that Tinubu and ECOWAS can only bark, but not bite, it will embolden military adventurers in other West African countries as well as the Russia-backed Wagner Group,” Ebenezer Obadare, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Global Insider. Nigeria, with its oil wealth and large military, has been the leading power in West Africa since the end of the late 1960s, often setting the direction of regional integration and cooperation efforts. Successful ECOWAS interventions in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Gambia and elsewhere have largely been attributed to strong Nigerian leadership. But Nigeria’s influence has been slipping in recent years, as it grapples with economic malaise and security challenges that festered under the prior president, Muhammadu Buhari. Since succeeding Buhari, Tinubu has been trying to placate different religious and ethnic groups at home upset over the February election results, which the opposition has disputed. ECOWAS has also been criticized for its response to the prior coups in West Africa, including in Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso in 2021 and 2022. ECOWAS suspended all three countries’ memberships after negotiations to return the countries to civilian rule broke down. But the suspensions have done little to nudge them back toward democracy. Many observers attribute this string of recent failures to an absence of Nigerian leadership under Buhari. For now, Tinubu and ECOWAS seem to recognize the challenge they face. Last week, Tinubu dispatched Beninese President Patrice Talon to Niger’s capital of Niamey as an ECOWAS mediator with the interim military government. Convening an emergency meeting of ECOWAS heads of state in Abuja on Sunday, Tinubu also took a more forceful tone than many of his predecessors, saying “there’s no more time for us to send a warning signal.” ECOWAS leaders have issued an ultimatum to Niger’s military government after the emergency meeting, saying in a statement they “will take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger. Such measures may include the use of force."
| | | | HITTING YOUR INBOX AUGUST 14—CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | | | | | WEDNESDAY: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris holds a bilateral meeting with Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene. THURSDAY: The U.N. Security Council holds an open debate on “Famine and conflict-induced global food insecurity.” U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack hosts Chinese and Hong Kong officials at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Food Security Ministerial Meeting in Seattle. The 21 APEC member economies will gather less than a week after the latest flare-up of tensions in the U.S.-China relationship, my colleagues at Morning Trade report.
| | EUROPE AND CHINA GROWING APART | | European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen rebuked China’s increasingly militant stances and its approach to the war in Ukraine Monday, according to my colleague Suzanne Lynch. Von der Leyen’s remarks come as Europe attempts to reframe its relationship with China amid the war in Ukraine and increased pressure from the United States to align with Washington economically and militarily. Speaking at the Philippines Business Forum in Manila Monday, Von der Leyen said that China “has yet to assume fully its responsibility under the U.N. Charter to uphold the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.” Von der Leyen also warned that China’s position on the south and east China seas could have “global repercussions.” On her trip to Manila, where she also met with Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Von der Leyen pitched greater EU investment in the country and affirmed EU strategic engagement in the region. Von der Leyen is not alone in embracing more distance from Beijing. Over the weekend, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto announced that Italy would leave the Belt and Road Initiative. The announcement comes after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s visit to Washington last week, which included a meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden. It is the latest step Meloni has taken to align Italy more with NATO and the West. During his Indo-Pacific tour last week, French President Emmanuel Macron also criticized China for its “new imperialism” towards smaller states. Still, Europe has moved delicately as it adjusts its relationship with Beijing. Over the weekend, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said “decoupling” with China “was an illusion” and called for better access to Chinese markets for French and European products.
| | | The U.S. and the European Union will host peace talks for the war in Ukraine in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 5 and 6, in hopes of wooing key developing countries with close ties to Russia to back Ukraine’s peace terms, according to WSJ’s Laurence Norman and Stephen Kalin. The summit, an extension of the Copenhagen talks that occurred in June, comes as developing countries have stepped up their calls for peace in Ukraine amid threats to the global food supply and both Ukraine and Russia have stalled in their military campaigns. More than 30 countries, including India, Brazil, Chile, South Africa and Indonesia have been invited. The U.S. will send national security adviser Jake Sullivan to Jeddah, according to The Washington Post. Saudi Arabia’s decision to host the talks comes on the heels of Sullivan’s previously unannounced visit to Jeddah last Thursday. It also reflects a continued shift in approach from Riyadh on Ukraine, after the White House rebuked Saudi Arabia for helping Russia by keeping oil prices high.
| | PERU’S PRESIDENT ASKS FOR MORE POWERS | | | Peruvian President Dina Boluarte asked the country’s Congress on Friday to expand her powers as president in order to address crime and violence in the country. Her push comes amid nationwide protests objecting to alleged human rights abuses and calling for an early presidential election. Boluarte, Peru’s first female leader and the country’s sixth president in the last five years, came to power after the impeachment of embattled former President Pedro Castillo. Boluarte has been the target of anti-government protests since she took office last December, when Castillo, a former teacher and left-wing labor organizer, attempted a self-coup and was removed from office by the country’s Congress. The ousting of Castillo prompted protests across the country, especially in the country’s majority Indigenous provinces. Many countries in Latin America led by left-wing leaders continue to recognize Castillo as the legitimate, democratically elected leader of Peru. Human rights groups and other observers have accused state security forces of massacring protesters, particularly in provinces with large indigenous populations. Boluarte’s government also faces new scrutiny in Washington. Fifteen Democratic members of the U.S. Congress wrote to Secretary of State Antony Blinken last week, pressing the State Department to take action against Boluarte’s government for alleged human rights violations.
| | REPUBLICANS HOLD UP FOREIGN HIV/AIDS ASSISTANCE | | Republicans on Capitol Hill are blocking efforts to renew the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief, my colleague Alice Marie Ollstein reports, imperiling the future of one of the most successful programs in stemming HIV/AIDS around the world. The program, up for renewal every five years, was expected to pass with little interruption. Yet Republicans are blocking it, saying the Biden administration has used PEPFAR to fund abortion and promulgate discussions of abortion in partner countries. Instead, GOP lawmakers want to fund the program for a year and restore the “Mexico City policy” that barred groups receiving U.S. funding from supporting or promoting abortion. Republicans have tried to end PEPFAR in the past, with former President Donald Trump unsuccessfully proposing cuts to its funding in 2018. Trump ultimately signed the reauthorization legislation. PEPFAR officials, the White House and independent experts all reject the claim that the program has supported or promoted abortion in the past. Launched in 2003 by then-President George W. Bush, PEPFAR has created partnerships with over 50 Asian, African and Latin American countries to treat and prevent HIV/AIDS. Experts say PEPFAR programs have saved the lives of as many as 25 million people.
| | VENEZUELANS NOT DETERRED: Crossings have gone down at the U.S. border with Mexico. But Venezuelan migrants are still risking the dangerous voyage through Central America to the U.S. amid ongoing economic hardship in Venezuela and hostility in other Latin American countries, according to WSJ’s Michelle Hackman, Juan Forero and Santiago Pérez. DRONE ATTACK IN MOSCOW: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said “war is returning to Russia” on the heels of a drone attack on a Moscow office building Sunday. Russian officials are blaming the attack on Ukraine. AID CONDITIONS: Nine senators who caucus with the Democrats are calling on the U.S. government to withhold a portion of military aid to Egypt, citing the country’s human rights violations under President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, the Associated Press’ Ellen Knickmeyer reports. PEOPLE AND POWER Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s son was arrested last week for money laundering and “illicit enrichment” after the culmination of an investigation Petro himself directed the government to pursue. British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is in Ghana today on the first leg of a four-day Africa trip that will also include Nigeria and Zambia. As, The trip comes in lieu of a previously scheduled trip to Beijing, my colleagues at London Playbook report,. BRAIN FOOD National Geographic’s Georgia Stephens looks at how the Black Mambas, an all-woman anti-poaching squad in South Africa, are protecting endangered rhinos in South Africa. The South China Morning Post’s Amanda Lee explores how China’s fiscal structure is trapping local governments in record-breaking debt and centralizing power back to Beijing. ONE FUN THING Mexico’s colorful heirloom corn variants were once on the verge of extinction. But brightly colored corn is experiencing a renaissance as foreign buyers and health-conscious Mexican consumers drive a surge in demand. Thanks to editors Emma Anderson and Heidi Vogt, and producer Sophie Gardner. SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: D.C. Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | Paris Playbook| Ottawa Playbook| EU Confidential | | Digital Bridge | China Watcher | Berlin Bulletin | D.C. Influence | EU Influence | London Influence | Paris Influence
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