Thursday, July 27, 2023

Joe Biden’s mission to Maine

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Jul 27, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Charlie Mahtesian

Lobstermen use a skiff get to their lobster boat in Deer Isle, Maine.

Lobstermen use a skiff get to their lobster boat in Deer Isle, Maine. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

WORKING VACATIONLAND — Joe Biden travels to Maine tomorrow, the first time he’s made it to the state during his presidency. The trip is part of the president’s Bidenomics tour, a sales pitch designed to lay out the economic case for a second term and underscore domestic manufacturing gains.

But there’s more to his visit to Auburn than mere messaging. The town of 24,000 is located in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which gives it a special resonance in presidential politics.

While the state of Maine is blue, the 2nd District is decidedly not. It’s the more conservative, rural and working class of the state’s two congressional seats, and it voted for Donald Trump twice. In 2020, it was the only district in New England that backed Trump.

The district’s voting habits matter a great deal because Maine is one of just two states (the other is Nebraska) that allocate an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district, in addition to the two electoral votes that go to the winner of the statewide popular vote.

As a result, Trump has now lost Maine twice, but still managed to capture one electoral vote from the state each time he’s been on the ballot.

If you don’t think one electoral vote matters, consider this: In 2020, the presidential election was closer to finishing in an Electoral College tie than is widely recognized. Had Trump won Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin — the sites of Biden’s three narrowest wins — both candidates would have ended up with exactly 269 electoral votes. That’s one vote short of an Electoral College majority, which would have thrown the race to the House of Representatives to decide.

Aside from the presidential implications, there’s another reason Biden’s visit to Auburn is worth watching. The 2nd District is one of just five across the nation that voted for both Trump and a Democratic member of Congress — Rep. Jared Golden.

Golden has been a thorn in the side of the administration, criticizing Biden over debt ceiling negotiations and ripping the White House for “hypocrisy” over its treatment of Maine’s lobster industry. He’s the only House Democrat who voted against Biden’s Build Back Better spending bill. More recently, he was one of only two House Democrats to break with the White House over the student loan debt cancellation plan.

As a holder of a so-called crossover district — in addition to the five Democrats who represent districts won by Trump, there are 18 Republicans who sit in districts won by Biden — Golden is among those incumbents whose fate in 2024 will determine control of the House.

In an April poll, Biden was underwater with Maine residents: 53 percent disapproved of his job performance, compared to 47 percent who approved. Central Maine, where the president will be visiting, is a particular weak spot — 70 percent disapproved.

Golden has been successful in the 2nd District by making a forceful case that he should be judged by his own record. With Maine voters ranking housing, cost of living and jobs/economy as the most important problems facing the state, Biden will need to do something similar, but in a far more persuasive way than he has so far. His first visit to Maine, which comes on the heels of today’s news that U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter of the year, provides the president with a politically opportune moment.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on Twitter at @PoliticoCharlie.

 

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What'd I Miss?

— No chance of Biden pardoning his son, White House says: President Joe Biden will not pardon his son Hunter if he is convicted of the charges against him, the White House said today. Hunter Biden has been charged with two misdemeanor tax offenses and a felony gun charge. When asked during her briefing whether there was any possibility that the president would eventually pardon his son, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre replied, “No,” and declined to comment further.

— Jordan pauses Mark Zuckerberg’s contempt of Congress vote: Rep. Jim Jordan delayed a vote to hold Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg in contempt of Congress after the company provided additional internal documents to the House Judiciary Committee as part of its probe into allegations that tech companies censor conservative online speech. Jordan (R-Ohio) announced in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, today, “Based on Facebook’s newfound commitment to fully cooperate with the Committee’s investigation, the Committee has decided to hold contempt in abeyance. For now. To be clear, contempt is still on the table and WILL be used if Facebook fails to cooperate in FULL.”

— Biden announces action on heat as nation sizzles: President Joe Biden unveiled a series of measures today designed to aid workers and residents facing severe health threats from soaring temperatures as record heat shows no signs of relenting. The Biden administration said the Labor Department would increase inspections at job sites to prevent heat stress, noting heat is the top weather-related killer in the United States at more than 600 deaths annually. Biden said the Occupational Safety and Health Administration already has conducted 2,600 workplace inspections as part of a new heat safety initiative. The White House also said it would spend $7 million from the Inflation Reduction Act to improve weather forecasting and $152 million from the bipartisan infrastructure law to expand water storage in the West.

Nightly Road to 2024

REBOOT — On the day his presidential campaign said it had laid off more than a third of its staff to address worries about unsustainable spending, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida began his morning by boarding a private jet to Chattanooga, Tenn.

The choice was a routine one — Mr. DeSantis and his wife, Casey, haven’t regularly flown commercial for years — but also symbolic to close observers of his struggling presidential campaign. As Mr. DeSantis promises a reset, setting out today on a bus tour in Iowa to show off a leaner, hungrier operation, several donors and allies remained skeptical about whether the governor could right the ship, reports the New York Times.

Their bleak outlook reflects a deep mistrust plaguing the highest levels of the DeSantis campaign, as well as its supporters and the well-funded super PAC, Never Back Down, bolstering his presidential ambitions.

MORE PEEVISH THAN PRINCIPLED — The tragedy of Trump is that he’s more peevish than principled. Consequently, he is easily baited by his opponents into distracting fights over petty matters. How else can one explain his current predicament and the danger he presents to our principles?

His enemies don’t even hide their designs. Democrats lay traps in plain sight, and the muscle head of U.S. politics walks right into them, time after time, writes Illinois Republican National Committeeman Richard Porter in RealClearPolitics.

There were irregularities and none of this is fair, Trumplicans declare! His fight is our fight! But is it really? Or is Trump just a vain old guy who’s easily egged into pointless bar fights that end up undermining our ability to win the broader war for our nation’s future? Note all the polls showing Trump losing to Biden.

AROUND THE WORLD

A thermometer reads 45 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit) in the tourist city of Nafplion, Greece on Wednesday as the country is hit by a new heatwave and wildfires due to excessive heat.

A thermometer reads 45 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit) in the tourist city of Nafplion, Greece on Wednesday as the country is hit by a new heatwave and wildfires due to excessive heat. | Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP via Getty Images

BOILING UP — July is on track to become the world’s hottest month on record — with some scientists saying the planet may be experiencing its warmest period in about 120,000 years, writes Zia Weise.

The finding, announced by the World Meteorological Organization and the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service today, comes as G20 climate ministers travel to India for talks on how to curb planet-warming emissions.

“The soaring temperatures this July clearly demonstrate what we already know. The devastating effects of global warming are a reality,” said Denmark’s Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen.

“We are not on the right track, but the G20 countries hold the power to change the course," he added. "I strongly urge them to use that power.”

Last weekend, however, G20 energy ministers were unable to reach an agreement on phasing down fossil fuels and setting a global renewables goal. Friday’s talks in the eastern Indian city of Chennai aren’t expected to yield a breakthrough, either.

ANON PLS — Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was spotted and photographed at a Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, appearing on the sidelines of the event hosted by President Vladimir Putin just a month after launching a failed mutiny, write Laura Hülsemann and Douglas Busvine.

In two pictures circulated on social media today, Prigozhin is shown wearing casual jeans and a white shirt, smiling as he presses the flesh with visiting officials.

The posts appeared intended as a demonstration of strength by Prigozhin during the summit being hosted by President Vladimir Putin. The warlord led a mutiny last month in which his troops marched to within 200 km of Moscow before standing down.

 

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Nightly Number

2.4 percent

The percentage that the U.S. economy grew at an annualized pace from April through June, an unexpected annual growth rate that showed continued resilience of the U.S. economy in the face of steadily higher interest rates resulting from the Federal Reserve’s 16-month-long fight against inflation. The estimate, released today by the Commerce Department, is the latest good news for the White House this week after both Federal Reserve economists and the Congressional Budget Office predicted the U.S. would avert a recession this year.

RADAR SWEEP

MONKEY BUSINESS — In 1975, journalist Sarah Bird reported a story for the Daily Texan about the first ever troop of macaques — or snow monkeys — who were transported from their natural habitat outside of Kyoto to a small, sun-drenched town in Texas. They were there to be observed by researchers who could chronicle their lives and better understand the species — which became protected in 1947. But what has happened to the monkeys originally sent to Texas, and their progeny, since? Where are their descendants? Bird returns to the story in 2023 and has some fascinating answers for Texas Monthly.

Parting Image

On this date in 1960: In hotel headquarters in downtown Chicago, then-Vice President and Republican candidate for president Richard Nixon and Pat Nixon watch the Republican convention progress on television. On TV, Oregon Gov. Mark Hatfield is placing Nixon's name before the convention for presidential nomination.

On this date in 1960: In hotel headquarters in downtown Chicago, then-Vice President and Republican candidate for president Richard Nixon and Pat Nixon watch the Republican convention progress on television. On TV, Oregon Gov. Mark Hatfield is placing Nixon's name before the convention for presidential nomination. | AP Photo

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