Cruise stocks have soared over the last year as consumers break free from COVID-era lockdown and book long-awaited trips out of town. That rising demand lifted all boats during "Wave Season." On a year-over-year basis: ✓ Royal Caribbean (RCL) shares have gained 166.07% ✓ Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) shares are up 77.25% ✓ And Carnival (CCL) shares have risen 68.67% Royal Caribbean caught the biggest wave – greatly outperforming peers in stock price gains alongside booming demand. That's because Royal Caribbean found itself in the travel industry sweet spot by catering to a higher-end – and therefore more insulated from inflation – clientele. Its price point and perceived value are right in the middle of NCLH (on the high end) and CCL (on the low end), making it kind of like the "Goldilocks" of cruise liners. That edge is clearly captured in LikeFolio's consumer data: When we covered these cruise stocks in the March 21 Derby City Daily issue, RCL demand was accelerating the fastest of the group. And RCL continues to lead the pack in demand, as you can see from the chart below: But take another look at that chart and you'll see why my alarm bells are starting to go off. RCL demand has fallen by 4% year-over-year; Purchase Intent growth for CCL and NCLH is even worse, sliding by 22% and 30%, respectively. Let's take a deeper dive into the data to see what the future could hold for this favorite cruise stock... Click here to continue reading |
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