| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | | Millions of dollars are pouring into the West Virginia Senate race — even though the incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin hasn't said if he's running for reelection. The race is a prime target for Republicans to flip and is expected to be one of the most contentious and expensive elections next year. And it helps that national Republicans landed their top recruit, Republican Gov. Jim Justice. Outside cash is already pouring in to support the governor. Last week, More Jobs, Less Government, a super PAC that supported Sen. Steve Daines’ 2020 reelection bid, reported dropping an estimated $75,000 on a text message and email program in support of Justice. The group typically dips into Montana races, including MT-01 last year, where it spent against Al Olszewski, a Republican state legislator who lost in the primary to now-Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, as well as Democrat Monica Tranel, who lost to Zinke in the general election. The investment is an indication of how allies of Daines, now the head of the NRSC, will rally behind Republicans’ chosen candidates. In a switch from last cycle, the NRSC is wading into primaries this time around. When Justice announced his bid earlier this year, Daines called him “a proven winner.” But Justice doesn’t have a guaranteed path to the Republican nomination. His most notable primary challenger is Rep. Alex Mooney, who’s been in the race since the week after Election Day. Mooney has the support of Club for Growth Action, the super PAC arm of the conservative anti-tax Club for Growth. The group anticipates spending upward of $10 million on the race to take Justice down. Senate Conservatives Fund, a self-described grassroots conservative organization, spent five-figures on direct mail production boosting Mooney in recent months. “Mooney is the conservative in this race, and the Swamp is furious,” the group said in its April endorsement announcement. “Mitch McConnell and his lobbyist pals want an establishment squish in that seat.” On the airwaves, the West Virginia Senate race has the most spending so far among 2024 contests (not including the presidential election). More than $4.5 million has already been spent on TV, digital and radio ads this year, according to AdImpact, an ad tracking service. The bulk of that comes from Republican spenders, including One Nation, which has spent more than $2 million hitting Manchin over his support of President Joe Biden’s “liberal climate policy” in spots from April and May. Mooney is the only candidate to run an ad on TV, with a five-figure buy attacking Justice for a few days at the end of April. The Club also aired an ad slamming the governor around the same time, backed by a five-figure buy. And then there’s the Democrats. Manchin has insisted he won’t announce his reelection decision until the end of the year — and repeatedly hasn’t ruled out a presidential bid. But Democrats are hoping he’ll stick around for another term, as the seat will be nearly impossible to defend without an incumbent. Duty and Honor, a Democratic group affiliated with the Senate Majority PAC, has put in over $1.5 million on the airwaves touting Manchin’s “independent approach” and economic policies. Those spots ran in April and May. The early spending from both parties is a preview of the dynamics of the race — a messy GOP primary and Democrats boosting the incumbent long before it’s a guarantee he’s running again. Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Virginia primary: 8 Days until the Mississippi primary: 57 Days until the Louisiana primary: 124 Days until the 2023 election: 148 Days until the Republican National Convention: 399 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 434 Days until the 2024 election: 512
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| | NOT BUDGING — Former President Donald Trump vowed to continue running for president even if he were to be convicted, he told POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt. “I’ll never leave,” he said. A federal indictment unsealed Friday — Trump’s second — charges him with 37 felony counts stemming from an investigation concerning his keeping of classified information at Mar-a-Lago after he left office. In his first public remarks following the indictment, Trump made clear that his best “defense against the charges will be waged in arenas before friendly audiences rather than in the courtroom,” POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Alex write. On Saturday, he spoke at the Georgia Republican Party’s convention, in which he “sought to galvanize his supporters to view the entire American justice system as corrupt, weaponized to target conservatives and deployed to prevent him from winning the 2024 election.” He brought a similar message to the North Carolina GOP, too. It’s unclear if this will dent Trump’s standing among his base. “After watching Trump survive two impeachments and one previous indictment, few Republicans are convinced this time will be different,” Adam Wren, Lisa Kashinsky and Meridith McGraw write. Trump is set to be arraigned in Miami on Tuesday. On that evening, he’ll host the first fundraiser of his 2024 campaign, Alex reports. The campaign said it expects to raise $2 million at the event, which will take place at his Bedminster, N.J. golf club. “Preparations for the fundraiser were in the works long before it was known that he would be making a court appearance that same day.” Trump is also delivering remarks that evening. THE ANGRY VOTE — Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the two frontrunners in the GOP presidential primary, “have painted current events in increasingly apocalyptic terms,” Adam, Sally Goldenberg and Natalie Allison write. It’s “a strategy squarely in line with public polling that suggests the Republican electorate’s sky-high dissatisfaction with how things are going in the country with a Democrat in the White House. … With few other options, a handful of their rivals are betting a more upbeat, happy warrior approach will offer at least a modicum of contrast as they attempt to move up in the field.” CAUCUS RUCKUS — “One of the biggest questions this cycle is around Iowa,” POLITICO’s Steve Shepard writes about the first Republican nominating contest in the 2024 cycle, which is thrown into flux thanks to the Democratic National Committee’s efforts to overhaul its early-state lineup. “In 2020, the Iowa caucuses were held on Feb. 3, just a month before Super Tuesday. This time, the caucuses could realistically be as early as Jan. 8, though the week after is considered more likely. Super Tuesday still wouldn’t be until March 5.” … On the note of presidential nominating contests: “Michigan Republicans approved a plan Saturday to award the majority of the state's delegates in the race for the GOP presidential nomination based on the results of 13 district-level caucus meetings,” writes The Detroit News’ Craig Mauger. “In a press release Saturday evening, Kristina Karamo, chairwoman of the Michigan Republican party, said the state GOP was attempting to avoid a penalty from the national committee because Democrats in the state Legislature moved the primary date.” ENDORSEMENT CORNER — DeSantis secured his first gubernatorial endorsement. Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt threw his backing behind DeSantis at a Saturday event hosted by Never Back Down, the group boosting DeSantis’ bid. … Georgia Rep. Andrew Clyde endorsed Trump at the Georgia GOP convention over the weekend. Trump is still leading congressional endorsements by a wide margin. ON THE ROAD AGAIN — Biden is attending his first campaign rally since announcing his reelection bid, The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Julia Terruso and Lizzy McLellan Ravitch report. Union members are set to host the rally on June 17 in Philadelphia. LOOKING FOR A BOOST — EMILY’s List is committing to spend “tens of millions of dollars” in support of Vice President Kamala Harris, our Eugene Daniels reports. “Such an investment in support of a sitting vice president is politically unprecedented. And it reflects the lack of broader efforts that have been made to date to help bolster the vice president amid persistently low approval ratings. … Laphonza Butler, the president of EMILY’s List, told POLITICO that the effort is not to redefine but to ‘remind’ voters of the politician that electrified enough of the party as a freshman Senator to have the juice to run for president.” THREE’S COMPANY — There’s concern among Democrats that Cornel West could be a spoiler for Biden in 2024, POLITICO’s Holly Ottebein writes. West, who’s running on the People’s Party ticket, “has no chance of beating Biden. But the fear in some Democratic circles is that West’s candidacy, and the fondness that he elicits from individuals in [Sen. Bernie Sanders'] orbit, may provide a permission structure for a small percentage of progressives to sour on the president.” ANOTHER ONE? — Republican Miami Mayor Francis Suarez said that he’s going to make a "major announcement” regarding a presidential bid soon. "I'm going to be making a big speech in the Reagan Library [on Thursday] and I think it's one that Americans should tune into,” he said on “Fox News Sunday.”
| | IT’S A NO FROM ME — Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher said he’s not running for Wisconsin Senate, a blow for national Republicans who were trying to recruit him. He told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Lawrence Andrea that he’s running for reelection to the House instead, due in part to his position as chair of the Select Committee on China. An NRSC spokesperson told the Journal Sentinel that Gallagher’s decision is “obviously disappointing, but it would have been political malpractice not to try to recruit Mike Gallagher.” No Republicans have declared a bid against incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin just yet. But Rep. Tom Tiffany said he’d make a decision by the end of July or August. Former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, who’s mulling a bid, touted a recent poll conducted by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, that found him leading the Senate field. “He no doubt saw this poll released a day earlier,” he wrote about Gallagher’s decision on Twitter. “Smart move.” LOOKING AHEAD — Democratic Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers hinted at a run for a third term at the state’s Democratic Party convention over the weekend. “I don’t care what you call me. You can call me governor, you can call me Tony, you can call me ‘Two-Term Tony,’ you can call me ‘Three-Term Tony,’” he said. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Jessie Opoien reports that a campaign spokesman said Evers “hasn’t made any announcements about 2026 yet.” 2024 WATCH — The Republican field in the race for Michigan Senate is growing. Attorney Alexandria Taylor, a former Democrat who left the party in 2019, and former Berrien County Commissioner Ezra Scott have joined the race, per The Detroit News’ Melissa Nann Burke, Beth LeBlanc and Craig Mauger. State Board of Education member Nikki Snyder and businessperson Michael Hoover have also announced. TRUMP CARD — Trump said he would endorse North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in his bid for governor next year. Robinson, a controversial candidate, is the perceived GOP frontrunner. The former president said at Saturday’s North Carolina GOP convention that he’s saving his formal endorsement for later, the AP’s Hannah Schoenbaum reports. IN THE STATES — Former Georgia state Sen. Josh McKoon was elected as the new chair of the state’s Republican Party over the weekend. He promised to be a “unifying force who could refocus the party on those kitchen-table issues while also engaging with the pro-Trump conservatives who have gained tremendous clout in the party,” the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein writes. The Georgia GOP is going through its own bout of soul-searching. Top Republicans in the state turned their backs on the convention, including Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. At the convention, election deniers were also elected to top posts, Greg and Mark Niesse write.
| | — Democratic Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer officially launched her “Fight Like Hell” federal PAC. Whitmer is co-chair of the Biden-Harris reelection campaign, and will be raising money for Biden and other Democratic candidates in 2024. “While MAGA extremists do what they can to undermine our progress, I am committed to bolstering our efforts to elect partners at the federal level who will stand up and fight like hell for working families, seniors, and children across the country,” Whitmer said in a statement. — Republican Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves raised over $660,000 in May and had about $9.4 million in the bank. Democratic challenger Brandon Presley brought in $355,000 and had $1.7 million on hand. — “George Soros, the legendary investor, philanthropist and right-wing target, is handing control of his $25 billion empire to a younger son—Alexander Soros, a self-described center-left thinker who grew up self-conscious of the family’s wealth and wasn’t thought to be a potential successor,” writes The Wall Street Journal’s Gregory Zuckerman. He said he “was broadening his father’s liberal aims … while embracing some different causes. Those include voting and abortion rights, as well as gender equity. He plans to continue using the family’s deep pockets to back left-leaning U.S. politicians.”
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | | PRESIDENTIAL — MAGA Inc., the super PAC boosting Trump’s presidential bid, is running an ad about Biden’s handling of classified documents. “They didn’t indict Biden,” the narrator says. “Instead, Biden’s DOJ went after Trump, anything to block him from becoming president again.” The group told Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser that it’s running on national cable news networks and is part of its existing 7-figure per week ad buy. … Tell It Like It Is PAC, a group supporting former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s presidential bid, ran a spot in New Hampshire highlighting parts of his campaign announcement in the state last week. KY GOV — Defending Bluegrass Values, a group backed by the Democratic Governors Association, is up with a spot hitting Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who's facing off against Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear in this year's gubernatorial race. It ties him to former Gov. Matt Bevin and attacks him for not appointing a special prosecutor to investigate Bevin’s pardons of violent criminals.
| | — Bill Mackey is Iowa political director for former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley's presidential bid, per the Des Moines Register's Noelle Alviz-Gransee and Francesca Block. Mackey was previously campaign manager for Republican Rep. Zach Nunn's bid last year. CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "One thing about getting old is that you start to get a little smart about what your strong suits are. And that's not one of them. I'm a cheerleader." (Actor Jane Fonda on her activism and not wanting to run for office) | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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