Tuesday, May 30, 2023

☕ What happened in Vegas

ChatGPT's output may not hold up in court...
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Morning Brew

LiquidPiston

Good morning. Is South Florida…the center of the sports universe? After squandering a 3–0 series lead, the Miami Heat crushed the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals last night.

That means two South Florida teams (both No. 8 seeds) will be playing in the finals of their sport simultaneously: the Heat and the NHL's Florida Panthers, who play 35 miles away from downtown Miami in Sunrise.

No city has won both the NBA and NHL championship in the same year. And it would be somewhat amusing for it to happen first in Miami, a city not exactly known for its rabid sports fans.

Neal Freyman, Abby Rubenstein, Sam Klebanov, Molly Liebergall

MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE

Nasdaq

12,975.69

S&P

4,205.45

Dow

33,093.34

10-Year

3.757%

Bitcoin

$27,777.38

Nvidia

$389.46

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • ​​Markets: The AI hype train that left the station last November with ChatGPT's release made its grand arrival on Wall Street last week. According to Bloomberg, the top seven tech stocks (Microsoft, Alphabet, etc.) gained a combined $454 billion in market cap over five days, fueled by Nvidia's earnings report that many considered a watershed moment for the technology. AI's disruptive potential is why the tech-heavy Nasdaq is leaving the other indexes in the dust this year.
 

ECONOMY

Biden, McCarthy agree to raise the roof

Michael Jordan in Space Jam Space Jam/Warner Bros. via Giphy

Our long national nightmare of having to hear the words "debt ceiling" could soon be over.

While you were off living your life on Saturday night, President Biden and GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached a deal (in principle) that would suspend the debt ceiling until 2025 and put a lid on nondefense government spending.

That whooshing sound you hear is investors and business leaders letting out a major sigh of relief—they warned of economic calamity if the US defaults on its debts for the first time ever.

What's in the deal

Besides crucially suspending the debt ceiling to let the government continue borrowing money, the agreement effectively freezes nondefense spending next year and limits it to a 1% bump the following year. (In effect, this amounts to a budget cut because…inflation.)

A few other deal-tails:

  • The bill adds work requirements for some people aged 50–54 receiving food stamps via the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).
  • It claws back part of the $80 billion that the Biden administration doled out to the IRS to beef up its enforcement.
  • And it changes the environmental review process for energy projects in an effort to speed them up.

But this thing isn't across the finish line yet

Both Biden and McCarthy described the agreement as a compromise where neither side gets exactly what they wanted. But the leaders will need to argue they got enough of what they wanted because now they'll have to sell the deal to skeptical lawmakers in Congress.

For the debt-ceiling suspension to become law, both the House and Senate have to approve it this week ahead of the June 5 default deadline. But it's not necessarily a slam dunk: Some Republicans on the party's far-right flank oppose the deal because it doesn't rein in government spending enough.

With their full-court press getting lawmakers on board, Biden and McCarthy believe they can muster up the 218 supporters needed to get the deal through the House, which will vote on it tomorrow.

Big picture: If you enjoyed the fight over the debt ceiling...we might do all of this again in 2025.—NF

     

TOGETHER WITH LIQUIDPISTON

This is one fast family

LiquidPiston

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They've patented a new thermodynamic cycle to power a redesigned rotary engine with up to 5x more power than legacy engines of the same size.

Best of all, their new supercharged, liquid-cooled rotary engine is compatible with a variety of fuels, including hydrogen. This could unlock a 100% green energy solution for the combustion engine market.

No wonder this (thermo)dynamic duo has secured $30m in contracts from the US government.

For a limited time, you can join their community of 10,000+ investors and invest in LiquidPiston today.

WORLD

Tour de headlines

Houses in California Getty images

State Farm won't insure any more CA homes. State Farm has stopped selling new home insurance policies in California because of the financial toll of paying out fire damage claims. Citing rising construction costs and a rapidly worsening wildfire season (fire-related building damage rose 246% between the 2000s and 2010s, according to The Conversation), State Farm said this was a "necessary" decision to "improve the company's financial strength." But, like a goodish neighbor, State Farm is still somewhat there: Existing customers won't lose their coverage, and personal auto insurance won't be affected, either.

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is reelected. Erdoğan prevailed in an election that represented the greatest threat to the strongman since he came to power in 2003. Critics have accused Erdoğan of undermining Turkey's democratic institutions, damaging its economy, and botching earthquake rescue efforts earlier this year. But his religious-nationalist rhetoric, his handouts to key constituencies, and the legacy of the explosive economic growth during the early years of his rule have kept him popular. Erdoğan will remain on speed dial for the US, Russia, and Turkey's NATO allies as he continues to steer an increasingly important country in the global arena.

The Texas House impeached the state's attorney general. Lawmakers voted to impeach Ken Paxton in a bipartisan 121–23 vote Saturday over allegations that he abused his position, including through bribery and obstruction of justice. Following the vote, Paxton was immediately suspended from his role until the state Senate (where his wife is a senator) conducts its trial, which has been set for no later than August 28. A two-thirds majority of the state Senate would be needed to remove him permanently: Only two Texas officials have ever been removed from office through impeachment—the last one in 1975. Paxton, a Republican and ally of Donald Trump, has called the proceedings a "politically motivated sham."

TECH

ChatGPT is not quite ready to be your lawyer

A gif of an illustrated computer showing an automated message. Francis Scialabba

Like a student who turned in a ChatGPT-penned term paper only to get it back with a red F on top, one New York attorney must now face the music for letting AI do the heavy lifting after filing a brief containing multiple references to nonexistent cases.

Steven Schwartz of Levidow, Levidow & Oberman, who has practiced for more than 30 years, represents a client suing the Colombian airline Avianca over injuries he claims he got when a serving cart bumped into him midflight. It's a pretty run-of-the-mill case, except that Schwartz submitted a brief to the court that included references to what the federal judge hearing the suit called six "bogus judicial decisions with bogus quotes and bogus internal citation" to support his position.

Turns out, Schwartz relied on ChatGPT for his legal research, and it simply made those cases up—and insisted they were real and available in major legal databases when he asked the bot for a source.

Bottom line: Law is one of several professions that appears to be on the cusp of being transformed by ChatGPT, which takes a whole lot less billable hours to whip up documents, but the chatbot isn't prepared to have its day in court just yet—at least not without a lot of human oversight.—AR

     

TOGETHER WITH BEAM

Beam

Treat yourself to better sleep. Beam's Dream Powder is a clinically tested nighttime hot cocoa with no added sugar and only 20 calories. With 5 natural, sleep-promoting ingredients, it helps you drift off into your deepest night's rest. And it's now available in a delicious chocolate peanut butter flavor. Use code MDW23 for up to 40% off.

CALENDAR

The (short) week ahead

Elizabeth Holmes Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Elizabeth Holmes to check into prison. The disgraced Theranos founder is expected to begin her 11-year sentence today at the minimum-security Bryan prison camp in Texas. Inmates traditionally kick off their time in Bryan by working in the kitchen for 90 days (hourly wage: 12 cents).

June is here: Pride Month starts on Thursday as brands like Target and Bud Light have already come under right-wing attack for promotions aligning them with the LGBTQ community. Organizers in a number of towns in Florida have also canceled their Pride events, citing a "climate of fear" after Gov. Ron DeSantis's recent signing of anti-LGBTQ laws.

What's coming to screens: I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson Season 3 on Netflix, The Idol on HBO (and Max), and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse in theaters.

Always wholesome: The Scripps National Spelling Bee Finals is on Thursday.

Everything else…

  • The NBA finals begin on Thursday.
  • The May jobs report drops on Friday.
  • It's the Catalina freaking Wine Mixer this weekend.

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Blackjack scene from The Hangover The Hangover/Warner Bros.

Stat: Gamblers lost almost $1 billion at blackjack tables in Las Vegas last year, the most since 2007 and the second-highest amount on record, the WSJ reported. It's not just bad luck—Vegas casinos have made subtle changes to blackjack to take more of your chips, including increasing table minimums and shrinking payouts for winning hands. The house has typically paid 3:2 when you get 21 on the first two cards, but more Vegas blackjack tables are shrinking the award to 6:5.

Quote: "I wanted to get off the plane soon."

No kidding. A man was arrested Sunday in South Korea after he opened a plane's emergency exit door while it was 700 feet in the air. The 33-year-old said he felt suffocated on the hourlong flight, so he yanked open the door, sending air rushing into the cabin and injuring 12 people. If convicted of violating aviation security law, he faces a maximum of 10 years in prison.

Read: How to hire a pop star for your private party. (The New Yorker)

NEWS

What else is brewing

  • Nvidia, which is getting tantalizingly close to a $1 trillion valuation, unveiled a slew of new updates yesterday, including a supercomputer and engine to create AI-based interactions with video game characters.
  • Russia has issued an arrest warrant for Sen. Lindsey Graham over comments the US lawmaker made about Ukraine. In response, an unfazed Graham tweeted, "See you in The Hague!".
  • Uganda's president signed into law a harsh anti-LGBT bill that includes the death penalty for "aggravated homosexuality," despite criticism of the law from Western governments, the US among them.
  • Venice's Grand Canal turned neon green, prompting a police investigation and rampant rumors, but it turned out to be the work of a chemical used to test wastewater.

RECS

Ask the right questions: The "golden prompts" to get the most out of ChatGPT and other chatbots.

A brief history of bricks: The history of the world…in Legos. (YouTube)

Clear your mind: Here's how to get started with meditation.

Keep it fresh: A comprehensive guide to what you should store in the fridge vs. the pantry.

Profit pundits: Upgrade your job performance with CFO Brew, your resource for top headlines and insights from the corporate finance universe. Subscribe here.

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*This is sponsored advertising content.

GAMES

The puzzle section

Brew Mini: It's OK if you shut your brain off for the long weekend. Kick it back into gear by solving today's Mini.

Cocktail trivia

With summer vibes in full swing, it's time to put that cocktail set you bought during the pandemic to good use.

Not sure how to get started? Today's trivia might give you some inspiration. We'll give you the ingredient list of a classic cocktail, and you have to name the drink.

  1. Gin, Campari, sweet vermouth
  2. Vodka, coffee liqueur, heavy cream
  3. Vodka, lime, ginger beer
  4. Rum, orgeat, Grand Marnier, lime juice, simple syrup
  5. Rye whiskey, sweet vermouth, Angostura bitters, maraschino cherry for garnish
  6. Rum, vodka, tequila, gin, triple sec, lemon juice, simple syrup, splash of cola

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AROUND THE BREW

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ANSWER

  1. Negroni
  2. White Russian
  3. Moscow mule
  4. Mai Tai
  5. Manhattan
  6. With that amount of booze, it can only be a Long Island iced tea...
         

Written by Neal Freyman, Molly Liebergall, Abigail Rubenstein, and Sam Klebanov

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