News : Why Nikki Haley could sneak through in 2024

Thursday, February 16, 2023

Why Nikki Haley could sneak through in 2024

Feb 16, 2023

By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

Presented by TikTok

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

The early take on Nikki Haley, who made her GOP presidential primary debut yesterday with a speech in Charleston, S.C., is that she’s more likely to shine brightly for a moment and then fall to Earth. | Mic Smith/AP Photo

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DRIVING THE DAY

TODAY — WaPo: “Biden to speak on spy balloon, unidentified aerial objects Thursday”

A MUST-READ FROM J-MART — “High-level Democrats are rallying to President [JOE] BIDEN’s re-election, not because they think it’s in the best interest of the country to have an 82-year-old start a second term but because they fear the potential alternative: the nomination of KAMALA HARRIS and election of DONALD TRUMP,” Jonathan Martin writes this morning.

“Nobody wants to be the one to do something that would undermine the chances of a Democratic victory in 2024,” says Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.). “Yet in quiet rooms the conversation is just the opposite — we could be at a higher risk if this path is cleared.”

Come for J-Mart on what they’re saying in those quiet rooms:

“There was the senator who said few Democrats in the chamber want Biden to run again but that the party had to devise ‘an alignment of interest’ with the president to get him off the ‘narcotic’ of the office.”
“[T]here was the governor who mused about just how little campaigning Biden would be able to do.”
There “was the Democratic lawmaker who recalled speaking to JILL BIDEN and, hoping to plant a seed about a one-term declaration of victory, told her how her husband should be celebrated for saving democracy.”

Stay for some newsy details about Biden world’s campaign planning:

“Biden’s team is eying an April announcement (the same month he began his campaign in 2019),
“California-based Democratic strategist ADDISU DEMISSIE will take a leadership role” at either the campaign or a Biden super PAC.
“The Biden folks believe that Trump or any other Republican nominee will be reluctant to work with the Commission on Presidential Debates, lessening the chances, and risk, of a head-to-head debate.”

And don’t miss dessert: a dissection of the politics of Kamala Harris.

IS HALEY A COMET OR A SHOOTING STAR? — Comets have staying power because they orbit the sun, while shooting stars burn up as they crash through the Earth’s atmosphere.

The early take on NIKKI HALEY, who made her GOP presidential primary debut yesterday with a speech in Charleston, S.C., is that she’s more likely to shine brightly for a moment and then fall to Earth.

“[H]ers will be a highly conventional campaign,” wrote Rich Lowry after watching her announcement video, and “there will be a number of other candidates with as strong or a stronger case to represent generational change.”

In a pretty brutal editorial this morning, The Wall Street Journal says there is “no clear rationale for her candidacy.”

Over at the Times, they assembled 10 pundits to assess Haley’s candidacy, and the majority opinion was that the two-term governor and former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations shouldn’t be taken very seriously. “Nikki Haley Will Not Be the Next President,” reads the headline.

We are old enough to remember when pundits in 2015 declared that DONALD TRUMP would never be president, and we can recall nights in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada in late 2019 and early 2020 when the same was said about Joe Biden.

Haley acknowledged the low expectations set by the nattering nabobs. “I’ve been underestimated before,” she said. She entered politics in 2004 by defeating South Carolina’s longest-serving House member. In 2010, she leapt from the statehouse to the governor’s mansion after defeating a field of seasoned politicians in a GOP primary and overcoming her close association with disgraced Gov. MARK SANFORD.

She was 38 years old.

Now 51, you can see why she looks at the 2024 race and thinks she can repeat that kind of upset — and why her speech yesterday was heavy on the theme of “a new generation,” which has the advantage of working against both Trump, who will be 78 next year, and Biden, who will turn 82 after the election. Much of the coverage emphasized that Haley was a throwback to the pre-Trump GOP, but she is not above Trump-style trolling. One of the few specific policies in her speech was “mandatory mental competency tests for politicians over 75 years old.”

THE VOLATILE FIELD: The GOP primary is being described as a matchup between Trump and Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS, but the defining characteristic of recent GOP presidential primaries is volatility.

In 2008, there were three different frontrunners (RUDY GIULIANI, MIKE HUCKABEE and JOHN McCAIN).

In 2012, there were five candidates who took the lead in national polls (MITT ROMNEY, RICK PERRY, HERMAN CAIN, NEWT GINGRICH and RICK SANTORUM).

In 2016, there were three leaders (JEB BUSH, BEN CARSON and Trump).

The cases of Cain and Carson are instructive. They were Black candidates who decried what Republicans now call “wokeism,” and they received a rapturous response from the party’s primary voters, who are overwhelmingly white. But as inexperienced outsiders to politics, neither could cope with the sustained scrutiny and attacks that came with their surges in the polls.

In addition to her relative youth, Haley is emphasizing an anti-woke pitch that has more resonance than ever among her party’s voters.

“Every day, we’re told America is flawed, rotten and full of hate. Joe and Kamala even say America’s racist,” she said. “Take it from me, the first minority female governor in history, America is not a racist country.”

In recent primaries, it only took one breakout moment during a debate to kick off a surge in the polls. Haley has been in politics since 2004, which complicates her “new generation” pitch, but it also suggests that she’s more prepared for the scrutiny if she catches fire.

HALEY VS. EVERYBODY: A lot has been made of Haley reneging on her promise not to run if Trump does. This is great fodder for reportorial intrigue because it’s such clear evidence of the main rap against her: that she constantly shifts positions. But voters have a long history of ignoring such pledges. (BARACK OBAMA also said he wasn’t going to run for president in 2008, and it worked out okay for him.)

The Republican field now seems like it will be smaller than previously thought. In addition to DeSantis, here’s a list of the most credible potential candidates, oldest to youngest: former Arkansas Gov. ASA HUTCHINSON (72), former Maryland Gov. LARRY HOGAN (66), former VP MIKE PENCE (63), former New Jersey Gov. CHRIS CHRISTIE (60), former Secretary of State MIKE POMPEO (59), Sen. TIM SCOTT of South Carolina (57), Virginia Gov. GLENN YOUNGKIN (56), former Wyoming Rep. LIZ CHENEY (56), South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM (51) and New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU (48).

Do any of those names jump out as unambiguously superior candidates to take on the two MAGA frontrunners?

THE ELECTABILITY ARGUMENT: The last piece of Haley’s argument for her candidacy is electability. “If you're tired of losing, put your trust in a new generation,” she said to fellow Republicans.

She will not be the only candidate to make the “loser” case against Trump.

In an evenly divided country characterized by over two decades of close presidential elections, electability can be a tough sell to a party’s base. It generally becomes a more relevant pitch after a party has been out of power for a long time. (Think BILL CLINTON in 1992, after Democrats were in the wilderness for 12 years.)

Being shut out of the White House for just one term might not be enough to convince GOP voters to abandon Trump as a clear loser, even if you throw in the results of 2018 and 2022. But it’s certainly the obvious argument to be making. And Haley may have as good a chance of making it stick as any of her potential opponents.

Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your reactions to the Haley announcement: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

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RARE TRUMP-McCONNELL CONVERGENCE — The GOP’s debate over how to discuss entitlements is creating shifting alliances among the party’s key power centers. The main dividing line has been between Florida Sen. RICK SCOTT, who continues to promote a plan that would sunset Social Security and Medicare after five years, and Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, who believes the Scott plan cost Republicans in 2022 and has put them at a major disadvantage vis-a-vis the White House in the budget debates of 2023.

This week, the Club for Growth weighed in on Scott’s behalf — praising him for having “consistently championed small government solutions centered around fiscal responsibility” — which posed a bit of a dilemma for Donald Trump, who has conflicting loyalties to the players and policies involved:

Trump hates McConnell, but likes his position on Social Security and Medicare.
Trump likes Scott, but hates his position on Social Security and Medicare.
Trump hates the Club for Growth, and hates the group’s position on Social Security and Medicare.

In the end, Trump’s hatred of the Club won out: “Bad news for Senator Rick Scott of Florida!” Trump wrote on Truth Social last night, aligning himself with his nemesis McConnell. “Club for NO Growth just announced they are going to back him, and without my backing them, an Endorsement from them is the kiss of death. Be careful, Rick, and most importantly, fight for Social Security and Medicare. THERE WILL BE NO CUTS!”

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BIDEN’S THURSDAY:

8 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief.

5 p.m.: Biden will host a screening of “Till.”

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 12:45 p.m.

HARRIS’ THURSDAY — The VP has arrived this morning in Munich. She has no public events scheduled.

THE SENATE is in. THE HOUSE is out.

We’re spilling the tea (and drinking tons of it in our newsroom) in U.K. politics with our latest newsletter, London Playbook PM. Get to know all the movers and shakers in Westminster and never miss a beat of British politics with a free subscription. Don’t miss out, we’ve got some exciting moves coming. Sign up today.

PHOTO OF THE DAY

President Joe Biden delivers remarks at the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers union Local 26 on February 15, 2023 in Lanham, Maryland. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

THE WHITE HOUSE

DOCU-DRAMA — Another one … and two: The FBI conducted another pair of previously undisclosed searches tied to the Biden classified materials issue at the University of Delaware in recent weeks, CNN’s Paula Reid scooped. Biden’s team cooperated with the searches at two different campus locations, covering materials from his tenure as a senator and documents he sent to the school. Both searches yielded materials that the FBI took, but they didn’t seem to be classified.

NOT BREAKING THROUGH — “Biden’s empathy shapes policy, but some voters don’t feel it,” by AP’s Josh Boak: “Sitting aboard Air Force One last year, President Joe Biden was scanning the newspaper and spotted a ghostly photo of a child’s swing set engulfed in raw sewage. He didn’t just sigh or shake his head. Upon landing back in Washington, he ordered longtime aide STEVE RICCHETTI to phone the White House infrastructure coordinator. … But here’s the rub for Biden: A majority of voters in Alabama and across the U.S. don’t believe he cares about people like them.”

HEADS UP — The White House is planning a state dinner for South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL in late April, per Bloomberg.

ALL POLITICS

NEW KOCH — “The Koch network once loved Mike Pence. Now it’s playing the field,” by Adam Wren: “After the influential Koch network announced this month that it would endorse a rival candidate to former President Donald Trump, donors aligned with Mike Pence privately reached out in hopes of securing its backing. … Despite those ties, however, the Koch network is, so far, content to keep its powder dry, looking to survey the field before deciding how to shape it.”

SEEMS A LITTLE LATE — “Pence moves to claim culture war lane before DeSantis gets there,” by Juan Perez Jr. and Adam Wren: “A Pence political initiative plans to spend at least $1 million to advocate for parental rights policies.”

THE STOP-DeSANTIS PUSH — “Alarmed by DeSantis, Black leaders protest and prepare for 2024,” by WaPo’s Tim Craig, Lori Rozsa and Hannah Knowles in Tallahassee, Fla.

ENDORSEMENT WATCH — Trump landed the backing of Rep. HARRIET HAGEMAN (R-Wyo.) yesterday, per Wyoming Public Radio.

PRIMARY COLORS — On the heels of Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN’s (D-Calif.) official announcement that she won’t seek another term, Rep. BARBARA LEE (D-Calif.) has filed FEC paperwork to run for the seat, Puck’s Teddy Schleifer flags. More from Congress Minutes

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CONGRESS

JORDAN TAKES ON THE VALLEY — “U.S. House Judiciary subpoenas Big Tech CEOs over free speech,” Reuters: “Committee Chairman JIM JORDAN on Wednesday subpoenaed the chief executives of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Instagram parent Meta Platforms, and Microsoft for documents and communications relating to free-speech issues. … Microsoft and Meta said that they had already begun producing documents. … Jordan set a March 23 deadline.”

— Related read: “Church Committee Aides Warn Jordan to Eschew Partisanship,” by NYT’s Luke Broadwater

THE TALENTED MR. SANTOS — Rep. GEORGE SANTOS (R-N.Y.) has faced a nearly unprecedented level of scrutiny for a freshman backbencher — but despite being caught in serial lies, he’s thinking about running for reelection, CNN’s Melania Zanona, Manu Raju and Isaac Dovere report.

In the meantime, the deluge of tough stories continued apace yesterday:

— Bloomberg: The FEC told Santos that he better come clean about who his treasurer is, or face a possible campaign fundraising and spending ban. The letter

— USA Today: End Citizens United filed a new FEC complaint regarding the period when a Santos staffer posed as a KEVIN McCARTHY aide to raise funds. The complaint also “alleges McCarthy’s office was aware since 2021” of the situation.

— CBS: Police interviewed Santos in a 2017 case regarding credit card and identity theft.

— NYT: An LGBT activist filed a letter with House ethics bodies asking whether the now openly gay Santos’ marriage to a Brazilian woman broke immigration laws.

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

ANOTHER BIG JACK SMITH MOVE — The DOJ special counsel has subpoenaed former White House chief of staff MARK MEADOWS, CNN’s Kaitlan Collins scooped. Meadows got the testimony for Jan. 6-related materials, and his testimony, last month. “The special counsel’s subpoena could set up a clash with the Justice Department and Meadows over executive privilege.”

Pence, meanwhile, told reporters yesterday that he’ll resist a subpoena from Smith all the way to the Supreme Court if necessary, write NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard and Dareh Gregorian. He also repeatedly declined to answer NBC’s questions about whether he would sit down voluntarily with DOJ investigators, instead emphasizing that he believes the Justice Department compelling his testimony is unconstitutional. Video of the exchange

POLICY CORNER

COUNTDOWN TO DEFAULT — A new CBO report yesterday pegged the date at which the U.S. could default on its debts without a debt limit increase as sometime between July and September. If income tax revenues this spring are unexpectedly low, the date could shift sooner than July, per the CBO. More from ABC … The report

Also in new CBO estimates: Nonpartisan analysts predicted that inflation won’t fall back to 2% until 2026, Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes report. And the federal deficit is expected to reach $1.4 trillion this year. Over the next decade, the total deficit will run $3 trillion higher than the CBO predicted just last May thanks to a spate of big-ticket legislation Democrats got through Congress, the office said. That would take deficits to nearly 7% of GDP.

FED UP — AUSTAN GOOLSBEE is in the running to replace LAEL BRAINARD as Fed vice chair, the WSJ scooped. Victoria Guida has the rundown on other names to watch.

VIRGINIA IS FOR … AGENTS? — “Virginia competes with Maryland to land new FBI headquarters,” by AP’s Matthew Barakat in Springfield, Va.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

MALPASSING THE TORCH — World Bank President DAVID MALPASS said he’ll leave his role about a year early, by June of this year, after the Trump nominee attracted heavy criticism for declining to acknowledge that fossil fuels contribute to climate change, reports NYT’s David Gelles, who asked Malpass the question that got him in trouble.

Now Biden will have a big appointment to make, selecting the person to lead the World Bank for the next five years. Gelles floats RAJIV SHAH, USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER and INDRA NOOYI as possibilities.

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — Washington’s efforts to get tough on China could run into partisan difficulties in a divided Congress, as even bolder Chinese hawks warn that they may not be able to thread the needle between Democratic senators and Republican House members, Marianne LeVine, Daniella Diaz, Gavin Bade and Connor O’Brien report. That’s shrouding a potential China competition bill, which could piece together things that were left out of the recent semiconductor legislation, in doubt.

VP IN GERMANY — “Harris headlines summit as world braces for fighting surge in Ukraine,” by WaPo’s Cleve R. Wootson Jr.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

LATEST FROM OHIO — “In Ohio Town Where Train Derailed, Anxiety and Distrust Are Running Deep,” by NYT’s Campbell Robertson and Emily Cochrane in East Palestine, Ohio: “Nearly two weeks after a train carrying toxic chemicals derailed in East Palestine, Ohio, confusing messages from government officials have frayed locals’ trust.”

— “As anxiety lingers near the Ohio toxic train wreck, Norfolk Southern backs out of a community meeting, citing threats,” by CNN’s Alisha Ebrahimji and Christina Maxouris

THE LEFT ROLLS HOCHUL — “State Senate Rejects Nominee for Chief Judge in Defeat for Hochul,” by NYT’s Luis Ferré-Sadurní in Albany: “The vote — the first time that the State Senate has rejected a governor’s pick for chief judge — amounted to an extraordinary repudiation of [New York Gov. KATHY] HOCHUL by members of her own party at the start of her first full term as governor.”

DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID.

PLAYBOOKERS

Nancy Pelosi officiated Glenn Weiss and Jan Friedlander Svendsen’s city hall wedding on Valentine’s Day.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Tucker Carlson will deliver the keynote address at the Heritage Foundation’s 50th anniversary gala on April 21.

SPOTTED: VP Kamala Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff dining at Imperfecto on Tuesday night for Valentine’s Day. … Greta Van Susteren and John Coale having dinner with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem at Cafe Milano yesterday.

PLAYBOOK REAL ESTATE SECTION — “Bill Clinton’s Childhood Home in Arkansas Hits the Market for $345K,” by Realtor.com’s Kellie Speed: “The listing marks the property’s first time on the public market. But the 3,708-square-foot home, known as the Birnbaum-Shubetz House, needs an update.”

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Laura Rosenberger will leave her position as special assistant to the president and NSC senior director for China and Taiwan, Bloomberg’s Jenny Leonard and Peter Martin scooped. The State Department’s Sarah Beran will replace her.

TRANSITIONS — Emily Michael is now director of federal government relations at the Biotechnology Innovation Organization. She previously was legislative director for House Energy and Commerce Oversight Subcommittee Chair Morgan Griffith (R-Va.), and is a John McCain and Andy Harris alum. … Jocelyn Kelly is now VP of comms at the Consumer Brands Association. She most recently was chief of staff of public affairs at PhRMA, and is an API and MGM Resorts alum. … Bridget Rossi is now a regional finance director at the NRCC. She previously was the director of the chairman’s advisory board and president’s club in finance at the RNC. …

… Emma Settle is now comms director for Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.). She most recently was director of strategic comms for Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) and is a Jody Hice alum. … Abbey Obourn is now scheduler for Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.). She most recently was deputy director of operations for Canvass America. … Katie Fitzpatrick is now D.C. scheduler for Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.). She most recently was director of operations for the Senate Aging Committee and special projects coordinator for Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.).

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Robert Allbritton … Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) … Reps. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), David Rouzer (R-N.C.), Neal Dunn (R-Fla.) and Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) … Kevin Robillard … POLITICO’s Tyler Wright … Cate Hansberry … NYT’s Jennifer Steinhauer … Susan Levine … Mike Warren … Sarah Bianchi … Joe Concha … Cameron Joseph … Nigel Cory of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation … Paul Blake … Jim Conzelman … Walmart’s Bruce Harris … Strader Payton … Susan Platt … Sonya Bernhardt … Kent Talbert … Michelle Tuffin ... Ben Kobren … Carl Icahn … former Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-Ala.) … Meredith Fineman ... Ty Trippet … Ed O’Keefe of the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum … Jay Carson

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Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s name.

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