| | | | |  | | By Mohar Chatterjee, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
Technically, private military companies are illegal in Russia, meaning the Wagner group’s presence alongside Russian troops on the Ukrainian battlefront is something of a voluntary move for Yevgeny Prigozhin. | AP Photo | With help from Connor O'Brien, Alex Ward and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, the head of Russian private military group Wagner, is rejecting allegations that his troops are fighting for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut in part because he wants to take over and profit from lucrative salt mines in the area. POLITICO’s MOHAR CHATTERJEE posed a series of questions over email to Prigozhin about the motivating factors surrounding his costly involvement in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While he refused to address many of the questions, Prigozhin did respond to a query about whether he was hoping that capturing the salt mines near Bakhmut would allow him to recover some of the money spent on fighters, weapons and equipment. “Do you really think that the salt mines in Bakhmut will be used in the near future, and that the cents [very little money] that even in theory could be earned from those aforementioned businesses will pay for military activities?” Prigozhin said. That’s Prigozhin clapping back at the White House, which has said mining profits from salt and gypsum are a motivator for him in both Bakhmut and nearby Soledar. “We think that that also has a role to play in why Mr. Prigozhin is so adamant on pouring — just literally throwing bodies into a meat grinder to get these two towns,” spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said last month. For over six months now, Russian forces — including professional Wagner troops — have been locked in a fierce, relentless battle against Ukrainian fighters for Bakhmut. Why is Prigozhin — who already profits from mines in the Central African Republic — so adamant that he isn’t after profit in this case? TATIANA STANOVAYA, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says it’s a political play. Prigozhin is “trying to gain the favor of Putin in order to boost his own political weight,” said Stanovaya, who has long examined Prigozhin’s role amongst the Russian elite. Technically, private military companies are illegal in Russia, meaning the Wagner group’s presence alongside Russian troops on the Ukrainian battlefront is something of a voluntary move for Prigozhin. It's not clear whether the Russian government is paying Wagner Group for its fighters. Tensions between Putin and Prigozhin had been rising over Prigozhin’s public criticism of Russian military leadership’s performance in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, where the salt-mining towns of Bakhmut and Soledar are located. A Reuters analysis Tuesday revealed that the Kremlin is moving to rein in the outspoken mercenary boss. “In trying to obtain some victories, he went too far,” said Stanovaya, calling Prigozhin’s public criticism of state institutions “a political mistake.” Prigozhin’s private army and political influence have led some Russia-watchers to wonder if his involvement in the Ukrainian conflict is a bid for a political career. Prigozhin refused to answer a question from Mohar about his political motivations or ambitions. CANDACE RONDEAUX, director of the public intelligence project Future Frontlines, said there are other strategic reasons Wagner might be so interested in Bakhmut. The salt mines are an “extremely useful location for burrowing in and creating a pretty extensive defense mechanism for an area of Donbas that can be very important in this war,” said Rondeaux, who has spent years investigating the activities of the Wagner group. “There are tunnels and caves and ratlines that run much further out from those salt mines.” And then there’s another theory Rondeaux says has been circulating among Russian ultranationalist groups that World War II-era weapons are cached in the mines of the Donbas region. “The idea is that somehow the Wagner group is going to capture all those munitions, and that will help them resupply,” said Rondeaux. Ultimately, more important than the warring theories about Bakhmut's strategic importance is the fact that "Russian forces have found themselves stuck fighting for Bakhmut," said KAROLINA HIRD, a Russia analyst at the Institute for Understanding War. "They have to continue to justify the fierce fighting, the massive losses that have been going on," she said.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | NO APOLOGIES: President JOE BIDEN says he plans to have some words with Chinese President XI JINPING about the Chinese spy balloon that transversed the U.S. nearly two weeks ago, our own MIA McCARTHY reports. “I expect to be speaking with President Xi, and I hope we are going to get to the bottom of this,” Biden said. As for the decision to shoot down the balloon: "Make no mistake, if any object presents a threat to the safety and security of the American people, I will take it down,” Biden said. U.S. officials still haven’t identified the three other objects shot down last weekend, which they have said are unlikely to be from China and are “benign.” CRIMEA IS A RED LINE: If Ukraine attempts to retake Crimea, that could lead to a wider Russian response, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN told a group of experts, Alex and PAUL McLEARY reported late Wednesday while flying somewhere over the Atlantic on the way to the Munich Security Conference. (And, yes, Alex is extremely jet lagged right now.) Such a move would be a red line for Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, Blinken said on a Zoom call with the group. Putin sees Crimea as fully part of Russia, not Ukraine, and would be loath to see the peninsula ripped from his clutches — even though that’s precisely what he did to Ukraine nearly a decade ago. The top diplomat’s comments, sure to frustrate Kyiv, came after someone on the private call asked if the U.S. is willing to help Ukraine realize its long-term goal of retaking the territory seized by Moscow. Blinken conveyed that the U.S. isn’t actively encouraging Ukraine to retake Crimea, but that the decision is Kyiv’s alone, according to four people with knowledge of his response. UKRAINE’S OIL HIT: Russian missiles bombarded Ukraine on Thursday, striking Kyiv’s largest oil refinery, Reuters’ MAX HUNDER and PAVEL POLITYUK report. Moscow launched 36 missiles in the early morning, Ukrainian officials said. Around 16 were shot down — a lower rate than usual. NEW ROBOT DECLARATION: The United States unveiled a new declaration on Thursday outlining the ethics, principles and practices for using artificial intelligence in military contexts, in hopes of other countries signing on to the guidelines. The declaration, announced at the REAIM summit in the Netherlands, acknowledges that countries around the world are developing weapons that use AI and is an attempt to come to some sort of agreement about what the rules should be. “The strong norms set by the declaration should have wide appeal across the international community,” MICHAEL HOROWITZ, director of the DoD’s emerging capabilities policy office, told NatSec Daily. “We’re pleased at the positive response we are already seeing from countries as we begin discussions.” It’s very possible that Russia has already used autonomous weapons in its war in Ukraine, the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ GREGORY ALLEN told NatSec Daily. So, the declaration can be seen as how the U.S. would move forward if that’s the case, he said. The U.S. would likely “continue down the path of increased usage of military AI and increased degrees of autonomy in weapons systems,” Allen said, though they “believe it’s in the best interests of everyone on planet earth if Russia and China” sign on to the agreement. But the declaration allows the U.S. to draw a contrast to how Russia and other nations might inappropriately use the weapons, Allen said. The U.S. and countries in agreement would operate under a framework that abides by international humanitarian law. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — LET’S TALK NUKES: The Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group is calling on leaders of nuclear-armed states to engage in a dialogue to reduce the risk of nuclear weapons being used. “Dialogue on these issues between nuclear-weapons states must be restored irrespective of current circumstances,” the group wrote in a statement, citing the war in Ukraine as increasing concerns about nuclear use. Steps to mitigate risk include restoring the bilateral strategic stability dialogue — which the U.S. and Russia agreed to two years ago — and conducting internal fail-safe reviews that could lead to proposals for reducing risk, the statement read. Those proposals might include creating cyber-nuclear “rules of the road” and red lines to prevent cyberattacks on nuclear facilities and other sensitive structures. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Enabling a world of unlimited possibility and 21st century security.
Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | POMPEO’S ISRAEL HARD LINE: MIKE POMPEO, who served as DONALD TRUMP’s secretary of State and CIA director, and is a likely GOP presidential contender, said Israel has biblical claims that mean it can’t be seen as an occupying force on Palestinian lands. On the One Decision podcast, Pompeo said that Israel “is not an occupying nation. As an evangelical Christian, I am convinced by my reading of the Bible that 3,000 years on now, in spite of the denial of so many, [this land] is the rightful homeland of the Jewish people.” He declined to support a two-state solution. His defense of Israel’s control over the territories comes as U.S. lawmakers worry about Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s new far-right government, which has vowed to expand Israel’s control of the West Bank by annexing large swaths of Palestinian territories. Other Trump alumni like JOHN BOLTON, who is also open to a 2024 run, have struck a similar tone over the years, calling Palestine a “so-called state” and saying the two-state solution “has died.” In 2017, NIKKI HALEY — who’s already running — accused the U.N. of bias in favor of Palestinians to “the detriment” of Israel. Trump himself attempted to pursue a peace plan and blamed Netanyahu for its failure, but that plan wasn’t very Palestine-friendly, experts said.
| | | NEW TASK FORCE: The Justice and Commerce departments will create a task force aiming at disrupting foreign adversaries from acquiring U.S. technologies that may be critical to national security, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). The officials will be tasked with stopping China and other potentially adversarial nations from using or acquiring critical U.S. technologies, including investigating the violation of export laws, stepping up engagement with the intelligence community and coordinating with law enforcement around the world.
| | | CHINA SANCTIONS U.S. FIRMS: China on Thursday unveiled sanctions on Lockheed Martin and a unit within Raytheon for supplying arms to Taiwan, the Associated Press’ JOE McDONALD reports. Raytheon was awarded a more than $400 million contract as part of a larger $1 billion arms sale to Taiwan in September, while Lockheed Martin has previously supplied the self-governing island with helicopters, radar and air control equipment. While U.S. defense firms are barred from most weapons-related technology sales to China, the sanctions from Beijing continue to illustrate opposition to Washington’s continued support for Taiwan, especially from lawmakers who’ve made frequent trips to Taipei.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — LAWMAKERS TO ISRAEL: Fifteen members of Congress will travel to Israel and the Palestinian territories on Sunday as part of the J Street Education Fund's largest delegation to the region yet. During the visit, the delegation will meet with Palestinian and Israeli officials, including Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG, who warned of “constitutional collapse” in a speech this week if Netanyahu’s far-right coalition overhauls the judicial system. Massive protests about the issue have roiled Israel, drawing international concern, including from Biden. “Now more than ever, it is critical for American leaders to pay close attention and listen to the voices of everyday Israelis and Palestinians who are being impacted by increased violence and backsliding democracy,” Rep. JIM McGOVERN (D-Mass.), who’s leading the delegation, told NatSec Daily. “I look forward to these important conversations and hope that our visit will serve as a catalyst for change.” HAWLEY PRESSES UKRAINE-TAIWAN TRADEOFF: Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) took aim at the bipartisan consensus on continuing to aid Ukraine in its fight against Russia, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. In a speech Thursday afternoon at the conservative Heritage Foundation, Hawley — who has opposed large emergency funding packages and argued European allies rather than the U.S. should lead the way in aiding Ukraine — contended extensive aid to Kyiv is detracting from the ability of the U.S. to deter China from invading Taiwan. "The core problem is our actions in Ukraine are directly affecting our ability to deter our most pressing adversary — that is China in the Pacific," Hawley said. "The truth is we cannot defend Ukraine and stop China in Taiwan and see to our own military requirements at the same time.” Hawley is unlikely to find many takers for his argument on the Hill, where there's still largely bipartisan agreement that the U.S. should continue to aid Ukraine. But a faction of the new House GOP majority opposes continued funding for Ukraine, which may complicate efforts to enact more aid.
| | | CHINA PLAYS VICTIMS: As U.S. outrage continues over the intrusion of a Chinese spy balloon in U.S. airspace earlier this month, Beijing has decided the best defense is a good offense, our own PHELIM KINE writes in China Watcher. Beijing is peddling that victim narrative to parry congressional anger, with the foreign ministry’s latest verbal assault calling U.S. sanctions of balloon-related Chinese firms “illegal” and threatening unspecified “countermeasures…to firmly safeguard China’s sovereignty.” The Chinese government is also concerned about intensifying international concern about its spy balloon surveillance program. Beijing’s apparent strategy: condemn, confound and contradict demands for transparency and accountability until the news cycle moves on. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — PERCEIVED RISK POLL: Democrats and Republicans don’t agree on much nowadays, but both parties viewed Russia as a top five risk to the country, according to a new poll conducted ahead of the Munich Security Conference. The results highlight how Americans’ view of Moscow has changed in the past year following the invasion of Ukraine, which has affected U.S. consumers amid rising inflation and soaring energy prices.
| | | |   | | | | | | — Rep. NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.) isn’t just traveling to Germany to participate in the Munich Security Conference — she’s also a new member of the conference's advisory council. The former House speaker will meet with top officials from U.S. allies at the conference. — DEBORAH FLEISCHAKER is now acting chief of staff at Immigration and Customs Enforcement. She most recently was assistant director for policy at ICE and has worked in both career civil servant and political appointee roles at DHS since 2011. — TOM JAWETZ is joining the Center for American Progress Immigration Policy team as a senior fellow, where his work will focus on immigration reform, courts and legal policy. Previously, he served as deputy general counsel in the Office of the General Counsel of Homeland Security.
| | | — MYA GUARNIERI JARADAT, POLITICO: Israelis Fear Their Democracy Is Crumbling — and the U.S. Isn’t Coming to Help — PETER RAUTENBACH, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: Keeping Humans in the Loop Is Not Enough to Make AI Safe for Nuclear Weapons — SAMANTHA POWER, Foreign Affairs: How Democracy Can Win
| | | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: One Year Later: Assessing Russia’s War In Ukraine — The Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service, 12:45 p.m.: In the Aftermath of the Earthquake in Syria: A Discussion with MUZNA DURIED and OMAR ALSHOGRE Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who refuses to answer any of our questions, ever. We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who knows the answer to everything.
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