⚕️Let's try this again

Plus: Eggs crack | Wednesday, February 01, 2023

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Advisor.com   Axios Markets By Emily Peck and Matt Phillips · Feb 01, 2023 ❄️ Happy February! Big day ahead. Fed chair Jerome Powell will likely announce a quarter-percentage-point rate increase this afternoon. But will he talk about winding down rate hikes? Stay tuned. Today's newsletter is 1,159 words, a 4.5-minute read.     1 big thing: A decadeslong push Data: BLS Employee Benefits Survey; Note: family leave covers time off to care for a child or family member; Chart: Axios Visuals When President Clinton signed the Family and Medical Leave Act into law — providing workers with unpaid time off to care for a child, ailing parent, or their own medical issue — advocates believed it wouldn't be long before the U.S. passed paid leave laws as well, Emily writes. Why it matters: This week, the Biden White House is set to commemorate the 30-year anniversary of the FMLA — but the U.S. is only incrementally closer to a nationwide paid leave policy. And with the country facing a labor shortage, there's an increased need for the kinds of caregiving policies that keep more people attached to the workforce. State of play: This afternoon, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), along with other Democratic lawmakers, plan to unveil a legislative package establishing a federal paid leave plan and FMLA expansion. (The two have introduced similar legislation before.) Meanwhile, a bipartisan working group on paid family leave recently formed in the House. The big picture: For a long time, paid leave and caregiving, in general, was viewed as private, a women's issue — not the same kind of public economic concern as, say, health care or education, says Vicki Shabo, a senior fellow and leave advocate at New America. The pandemic changed the perception, with more recognition that family challenges are economic issues. When parents or caregivers can't go to work, it's a financial concern for companies and the economy. In 2021, the House passed a family leave policy but it failed to make it through the Senate. Just last week, a group of Democratic lawmakers announced they'd formed a "Congressional Dads Caucus," to push for paid leave, among other family-friendly policies. How it works: The FMLA lets workers at companies with 50 or more employees take 12 weeks unpaid leave to bond with a newborn or newly adopted child, care for a seriously ill child, spouse or parent, or care for your own health condition. But, but, but: About 40% of workers aren't even covered by FMLA. And just one in four workers in the private sector has access to paid family leave — with higher-paid workers more likely to have coverage. One well-known survey from 2012 found that 23% of women go back to work less than two weeks after giving birth — posing health risks for both infants and parents. What happened: When Bush took the White House in 2000, the policy momentum behind paid leave moved to the states, with California the first to pass a policy that year. Now 11 states and Washington, D.C., have paid family leave programs for workers, funded through payroll deductions paid for by employers or employees, or both. What we're watching: With omnipresent recession fears and a political fight over the debt ceiling looming, the idea that Congress will pass a momentous bill expanding the social safety net seems like a stretch. Go deeper     2. Catch up quick ⬇️ Intel CEO pay slashed by 25% as part of overall cuts. (Bloomberg) 💸 Biden's plan to jumpstart EVs is much more costly than anticipated. (Axios) 💶 Eurozone inflation slows to 8.5% on lower energy costs. (FT)     3. Headwinds for Indian stocks Data: FactSet; Chart: Axios Visuals The battle royal between a well-known U.S. short-seller and a well-connected Indian billionaire hits the Indian markets at a delicate time, Matt writes. Driving the news: Fraud allegations launched by U.S. short seller Nate Anderson's Hindenburg Research have cratered the share prices of the various entities that make up the sprawling coal, cement, ports and infrastructure conglomerate run by Gautam Adani, who Bloomberg calls Asia's richest man. CNN's Diksha Madhok has a great subscription-free explainer of the situation. The big picture: After outperforming other major markets over the last couple of years, Indian stocks have suddenly started to stumble. The MSCI India index has started the year down nearly 3%, compared to a gain of 5% for the S&P 500 and roughly 13% for MSCI's main China index. (It fell into negative territory after the Hindenburg report's publication.) Between the lines: Even without the Adani issue complicating matters, Indian stocks still seem ripe for a pullback — a victim of their relative recent success. For the last few years, India's stock markets outperformed other major emerging markets like China. The tech-heavy tilt of its benchmark indexes helped for much of the COVID-era — as in the U.S., these stocks were boosted by low-interest rates. And the country's strong underlying growth rate — averaging nearly 6% a year after inflation for the last decade — was attractive to global investors. But that's left India relatively highly valued, compared to other emerging market countries. And with China's government apparently set on driving a strong reopening from its zero-COVID lockdowns, investors have been shifting money out of India, and into Chinese stocks where they see more upside. What they're saying: "Since November, Asian mutual funds have raised their exposure most in Hong Kong/China and North Asian markets of South Korea and Taiwan, but reduced exposure in parts of ASEAN (Indonesia, Singapore) and India," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a recent client note. Yes, but: As we've said plenty of times about the U.S., the stock market is not the economy. Despite the stock slump, India's economy still appears to look quite strong, with the latest data from the IMF forecasting 2023 growth of over 6%.     A message from Advisor.com Never make another financial decision alone     We all have that sinking feeling we're missing out on opportunities with our money. Advisor.com offers expert financial planning and investing for a flat annual fee. Whether you have $0 or $1M in investments, you pay one rate for the same white glove service. Take our quiz to see if you need an advisor.     4. Eurozone dodges recession so far Data: FactSet, Eurostat; Chart: Axios Visuals Europe dodged recession at the end of last year, eking out a surprising bit of growth in the final three months of the year despite the energy shock delivered by Russia's war in Ukraine, Matt writes. Driving the news: The 20-country currency bloc grew by 1.9% in the fourth quarter, compared to the same quarter in 2021. Not too bad. Between the lines: Quarter-on-quarter growth rates, however, have been close to the classic definition of a recession, which is two consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions in output. By that metric... Q3 GDP was up 0.3%. Q4 was up just 0.1%. What they're saying: "Despite the energy — and subsequent inflation — crisis, the eurozone economy once again defied recession in the fourth quarter, showing incredible resilience. But it was a narrow escape," wrote Bert Colijn, an economist covering the monetary bloc for ING. Yes, but: The recession may just be delayed, not avoided. Large economies like Germany and Italy are starting to contract.   Share Axios and earn rewards If you like this newsletter, your friends may, too! Refer your friends and get free Axios swag when they sign up. Be a good friend and share   5. 🥚Egg prices crack Data: FactSet, USDA; Chart: Axios Visuals The avian flu-related surge in egg prices is ebbing — but the protein is still pricey, Matt writes. State of play: Weekly egg price information from the United States Department of Agriculture shows the average price of a dozen eggs is down more than 40% from its December peak of about $5.30. A dozen eggs now cost just over $3. Context: An outbreak of avian influenza in the U.S. this year prompted the culling of more than 50 million birds, disrupting egg supplies. Yes, but: Despite the recent drop in USDA prices — which are based on sales to large buyers — prices are still more than triple what they were two years ago.     A message from Advisor.com Never make another financial decision alone     We all have that sinking feeling we're missing out on opportunities with our money. Advisor.com offers expert financial planning and investing for a flat annual fee. Whether you have $0 or $1M in investments, you pay one rate for the same white glove service. Take our quiz to see if you need an advisor.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up here to get Axios Markets in your inbox. Today's newsletter was edited by Kate Marino and copy edited by Mickey Meece. Why stop here? Let's go Pro. Join the thousands of professionals using Axios Pro to keep up with the companies, deals and trends changing their industries.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. To stop receiving this newsletter, unsubscribe or manage your email preferences.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: