Monday, February 6, 2023

💸Data Revisions Pay Off in the Jobs Market

Good morning. Friday's job report was a stunner, with the U.S. economy adding over half a million...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Friday's job report was a stunner, with the U.S. economy adding over half a million jobs. That pushed the unemployment rate from 3.6 percent to 3.4 percent, the lowest in 54 years. However, the headline numbers overlook the latest data revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Updated population control numbers resulted in higher data, both for January and for revised numbers in the second half of last year.

The strong jobs market makes it difficult to see the Fed stopping its interest rate hike policy anytime soon. That could lead to more weakness in the market in the coming weeks, especially as earnings season winds down.

There's still a good reason for traders to remain cautious, and look for trades that can profit when the market drops here.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,926.01 -0.38%
S&P 4,136.48 -1.04%
NASDAQ 12,006.96 -1.59%
*As of market close
Markets pulled back on Friday, following a better-than-expected jobs report.
Oil slid 3.4 percent, closing at $73.28 per barrel.
Gold dropped 2.7 percent, going for $1,879 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded lower, with Bitcoin at $23,351 at the market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Buy What the World Needs, Not What the World Wants
In a bull market, all sorts of investment ideas come into play. When there's a bear market, investors can stay safe but also make money by focusing on companies that provide products and services that customers need.

Defensive stocks don't have to just be utilities and telecoms. There are a number of other sectors that fit the bill, such as industrial stocks. That space tends to get overlooked.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: LendingTree (TREE)
Douglas Lebda, CEO at LendingTree (TREE), recently added 18,268 shares. The buy increased his holdings by just over 1 percent, and came to a total cost just over $705,000.

The purchase comes a week after the CEO bought 65,062 shares, paying just over $2.08 million. Going further back, some insiders have been sellers over the past year, and a company director has been a repeat buyer of LendingTree stock.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Riot Platforms (RIOT)
Shares of cryptocurrency mining company Riot Platforms (RIOT) have been cut in half over the past year, even with shares more than double off their recent low. One trader sees the current rally continuing.

That's based on the September $8 calls. With 221 days until expiration, 7,034 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 195, for a 36-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $1.96 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Unemployment Rate Drops on Better-Than-Expected Jobs Data

The U.S. economy added 517,000 jobs in January. That's more than expected, and resulted in the unemployment rate ticking down to 3.4 percent against expectations for a 3.6 percent rate. The move comes as a number of companies have announced sizeable layoffs, and suggests that the rest of the labor market continues to remain robust.
Credit Card Debt Rises To $930.6 Billion

Total credit card debt hit $930.6 billion in the final quarter of 2022, according to data from TransUnion. That's an 18.5 percent rise from the final quarter of 2021. That suggests that consumers are funding their lifestyle and spending patterns with rising debt. Delinquencies have also started to rise, which may be a sign that some consumers are starting to tap out.
Mortgage Rates Drop for Fourth Week

30-year fixed rate mortgages dropped to 6.09 percent, down from 6.13 percent the week before. That's still high compared to the rate one year prior, at 3.55 percent. The slight dip occurred as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at a lower rate, and made statements on the improving inflation situation.
SEC May Ease Climate-Disclosure Rules

The Securities and Exchange Commission is considering scaling back a series of planned rules that would require companies to disclose the potential impacts of extreme weather events and other forms of climate change. The potential scaled back disclosures come following pushback from company executives and investors.
Apple Tops 935 Million Paid Subscribers

Consumer technology company Apple (AAPL) reports that it now has 935 million paid subscribers across all its services. Growth came in at double-digit levels over the past year, and the company has seen total revenues rise by 6 percent.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
CLX  9.075%
REGN  4.417%
GILD 3.821%
CHD 3.746%
PH 3.354%
BOTTOM
GEN 9.525%
MKTX 8.806%
AMZN 8.733%
MTCH 8.142%
F 7.996%

Quote of the Day
The market is extraordinarily overbought. We know we broke through some positive technicals. We think a lot of that is being driven by liquidity. But we think folks buying in here are buying into yet another bear market rally. This feels so much like January of 2000, where everyone said the worst is behind us and it was only the beginning.
- Lisa Shallet, CIO at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, on why the market may be in for a pullback following a strong performance since the start of 2023.

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