Biden’s 2024 pivot

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Feb 06, 2023 View in browser   By Ari Hawkins With help from Minho Kim The chamber of the House of Representatives is seen at the Capitol in Washington, Feb. 28, 2022. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo STATE OF PLAY — President Joe Biden hasn’t formally announced his campaign for reelection, but tomorrow night’s State of the Union address will offer the clearest look yet at the message he’s likely to run on. The speech, set to begin at 9 p.m. EST, will be followed by the Republican response, delivered by Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders. On Wednesday, Biden and his team will head to Wisconsin and then to Florida later this week, where he will tout the administration’s efforts to protect Medicare and Social Security. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre confirmed the president would address the economy and infrastructure, offering the president a chance to tout the bipartisan infrastructure act that passed in 2021 and last year’s Inflation Reduction Act. He’s also expected to use his platform to address the debt ceiling debate unfolding in Congress and recent favorable job figures and inflation numbers that have finally tampered off from a high not seen since the 1980s. But he’ll have to address the national security issues raised by the recent discovery of a Chinese spy balloon over the United States, which has sparked tough Republican criticism and renewed focus on competition between the U.S. and China. Biden is also expected to highlight the Russian invasion into Ukraine and the need for bipartisan agreement to deliver additional funding for the war effort. With one announced foe — former President Donald Trump — already in the 2024 race and Republicans ramping up probes into the Biden White House in response to the discovery of classified documents at the president’s former DC office and his home in Delaware, the president's speech comes at a pivotal moment. To understand the context and political backdrop for the president’s speech, Nightly spoke with POLITICO’s White House Bureau Chief Jonathan Lemire. This interview has been edited. The State of the Union is a chance to chart out Biden’s agenda for the next year and beyond. What might that look like? The president in his State of Union speech will have to confront the new reality — which is that he faces a divided government. On the one hand, we are told by White House aides that the speech will be somewhat backward looking and highlight all that we've accomplished over the last couple of years, including things like the infrastructure bill. At the same time, the president is ready to push the message that there are things we simply must get done working together, like funding Ukraine and responding to China. In the last couple years, Biden was flanked by the vice president and Speaker Pelosi during his SOTU speeches. But tomorrow night, he’ll be next to Speaker Kevin McCarthy. It's a perfect visual reminder of the challenges to come. It's been said that tomorrow night's speech will also serve as a 'soft launch' of his 2024 reelection bid. What exactly does that mean and what insights will it provide into his campaign? The president has not officially announced that he will run for reelection. He’s expected to do so, but he’s likely not to make an official decision for at least a few weeks, if not a couple of months, according to our reports. That said, there is a sense that his speech on Tuesday could offer a preview of what that reelection campaign could look like — in addition to the president touting what he has already done. He'll point to economic growth and, under his watch, the country coming out of the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic and speak to the restored sense of normalcy after four tumultuous years of Trump. We can expect Biden will really try to draw contrast between his leadership, which he will portray as firmer and effective and willing to work across the aisle to get big things done to focus on things for American people, and draw a contrast with what he will paint as the sort of radical extremists in the House Republican Party who he has said, are out of touch with Americans on most major issues. He will suggest, however implicitly, that this is what a Republican presidential candidate in 2024 would represent as well. There's much to talk about on the policy front, both domestically and abroad. How much attention will be devoted to issues surrounding our relationship with China and the Russian war in Ukraine? And how much will be devoted to issues like police violence and the economy? The State of Union is sort of a snapshot for any president. There will certainly be a range of foreign policy issues, like the ongoing conversation over more support for Ukraine. The administration has also painted the next century as a competition between Washington and China and there will almost certainly be at least a passing reference to the spy balloon. On the domestic front, we can expect references to the issues of guns in the wake of these mass shootings we've had in California and other places, recent weeks, and of course, the need for police reform. How do the conditions surrounding this year's State of the Union compare to last year, and to his first joint address in 2021? The backdrop of last year's speech was very much the shock and horror of war. There was still this disbelief that Russia had even gone into Ukraine. Now we’re in a very different place. First, there’s Biden's political strength. His approval ratings are higher than they have been in past speeches — lifted by the Democrats’ surprisingly strong performance in November's midterms — and his administration can point to a strong legislative year. Gas prices have also recently lowered and soaring inflation is showing signs of cooling off. At the same time, the discovery of mishandled classified documents at his home and former office continues to be a Republican flashpoint. What would a successful or unsuccessful State of the Union look like for president Biden? How is success defined here? The State of the Union is always a big opportunity for any president. It’s the biggest audience he’s likely to speak to all year and it’s an opportunity for him to sell his agenda and what he’s accomplished to date. For this White House, there is a sense — and polling would back this up — that Americans are not giving the administration enough credit from the voters with regards to everything they say they’ve accomplished. The White House views this speech as an opportunity to drive home what they’ve achieved and to lay out possible themes for an upcoming presidential campaign. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author on Twitter at @_AriHawkins.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     What'd I Miss? — Biden admin offers to brief Trump officials on past Chinese spy balloon incursions: The Biden administration is willing to brief former Trump officials on newly discovered intelligence that China sent spy balloons into U.S. airspace during their time in charge. The offer, described by senior Biden administration officials on Sunday night, comes as Trump and senior members of his national security team say they were never briefed on such an incursion by a Beijing-sent aircraft. Briefers would also be willing to discuss Beijing’s similar operations in East Asia, South Asia and Europe over the last several years. — Planes involved in Austin near-miss came within 100 feet of each other: A Southwest Airlines and FedEx cargo airplane avoided crashing into each other at the Austin airport over the weekend by less than 100 feet, the head of a federal investigating body said this afternoon. Jennifer Homendy, the chair of the National Transportation Safety Board said in an interview that the near-miss findings are still preliminary, but that it’s “fairly clear that the aircraft came within very close proximity of each other and we believe it’s less than 100 feet.” — Federal judge says constitutional right to abortion may still exist, despite Dobbs: A federal judge in Washington, D.C., suggested today that there may be a constitutional right to abortion baked into the 13th Amendment — an area she said went unexplored by the Supreme Court in its momentous decision last year overturning Roe v. Wade. In a pending criminal case against several anti-abortion activists, U.S. District Court Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly said the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization concluded only that the 14th Amendment included no right to abortion but stopped short of definitively ruling out other aspects of the Constitution that might apply. AROUND THE WORLD Myanmar nationals living in Thailand hold portraits of former leader Aung San Suu Kyi during a protest marking the two-year anniversary of the military takeover that ousted her government outside the Myanmar Embassy in Bangkok, Thailand, Feb. 1, 2023. | Sakchai Lalit/AP Photo MYANMAR’S MILITARY RULE — The streets around Myanmar grew quiet last week, as citizens observed a “silent strike” to protest two years of military rule since a February 2021 coup unseated the country’s democratically elected leaders. It represented another turning point in the civil war between the military dictatorship and an opposition led by the National Unity Government — established in April 2021 by deposed lawmakers representing Myanmar’s dissolved legislative body — and other armed factions run by Myanmar’s ethnic minorities. The junta replied to the strike by extending a state of emergency in the country and cracking down on protests, jailing thousands of political dissidents and protesters. Frustrated by its failure to consolidate power since the coup, the military has resorted to a variety of brutal tactics including burning villages, torturing and raping civilians. Survivors of the junta’s alleged war crimes have brought a criminal lawsuit to a German court, which recognizes universal jurisdiction. In December, U.S. Congress passed the BURMA Act as part of the National Defense Authorization Act, which commits the U.S. to providing “non-lethal assistance” and “technical support” for the NUG and other allied resistance movements. POLITICO’s Minho Kim spoke with U Kyaw Zaw, a NUG spokesperson, to better understand the civil war in Myanmar and the priorities of its resistance forces. This interview has been edited. Why is the Burmese resistance against the junta still strong two years after the coup? That’s the people power — the will of the people. From day one, people protested peacefully, but the military chose violence. They even beheaded our young people. It all started with those who took up arms to protect themselves from the brutality of the military. Unfortunately, the military has firepower, especially the air power which Russia provides: the Su-30 fighter jets and MI-17 helicopters. The Myanmar Air Force flies the same aircrafts used in Ukraine, dropping bombs against the civilian targets. Attacks are targeted at schools, hospitals and even religious facilities. The junta uses brutal attacks to make people fearful. But that is backfiring, and the hate against the military is becoming stronger. Almost all of our National Unity Government budget is from private donations. But we aren’t receiving any support, not even 1 percent of what the Ukrainians are receiving. Hopefully, the international community will soon recognize our struggle and provide practical support, not just statements. With the passage of the BURMA Act, what kind of support is the National Unity Government expecting? One thing is for sure: humanitarian assistance. Over 1.6 million people have been displaced in Myanmar because of the junta violence, while a third of the population needs help from war-triggered poverty. Almost all of the displaced are living in areas controlled by NUG and the resistance. Right now, our forces often share their limited rations with refugees, so the direct humanitarian assistance will not only help people's survival but allow democratic forces to focus on winning and bringing back the freedom and democracy in Myanmar. Second, we need to choke off the junta's revenue flow through sanctions, so that they can’t buy arms. Russia has not given the weapons for free; they are selling them. Their most important revenue source is oil and gas. The U.S. government can lead the free world and coordinate with our neighbors like Thailand, India and Bangladesh to impose sanctions and support our efforts. Would the NUG consider negotiating a power-share agreement with the junta to end the conflict? The NUG government will go along with the will of the people, and what the people of Myanmar want is to end the military dictatorship once and for all. People had already given a chance to the military in 2008. Now everyone can see the result. The military will no longer be involved in politics and be fully under the civilian government. That’s the basic democratic principle.   JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE.     People and emergency teams search for people in the rubble in a destroyed building in Gaziantep, Turkey, Feb. 6, 2023. | Mustafa Karali/AP Photo Nightly Number 7.8 The magnitude on the Richter scale of a deadly earthquake that toppled hundreds of residential buildings in Turkey and Syria this morning. Vibrations were felt as far away as Cairo, and impacted a swath of land stretching from Aleppo in Syria to Diyarbakir in Turkey. The death toll continues to rise as rescue workers dig through the rubble across both countries. The U.S. is moving quickly to send assistance to Turkey and Syria, with President Biden saying earlier today that his administration is “working closely with our NATO Ally Turkiye, and I authorized an immediate U.S. response. At my direction, senior American officials reached out immediately to their Turkish counterparts to coordinate any and all needed assistance.” Radar Sweep MOROCCAN BLUE — One of Morocco’s most iconic tourist attractions are the blue buildings in Jardin Majorelle, in the desert city of Marrakesh. The shade of blue, which many might describe as cobalt or aquamarine, is legally known as Majorelle blue and is trademarked with the Moroccan Office of Industrial and Commercial Property. The trademark designation raises questions over who should be able to control the use of a color, especially considering the hue’s heavy presence in Moroccan culture. Many local artists are mixed on their perspective, with some acknowledging that the trade mark has helped increase global interest in Moroccan culture. Read Annie Hariharan’s report on the story of Jardin Majorelle, the color blue and the wider debate over cultural commodification for Atlas Obscura. Parting Words IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES — When Ronna McDaniel was looking to sew up support for her reelection as Republican National Committee chair, she announced an endorsement from one of the GOP’s most influential megadonors: Liz Uihlein. Hours later, McDaniel’s conservative insurgent rival, Harmeet Dhillon, announced her own new backer: Dick Uihlein, Liz’s husband. While Liz has spent millions of dollars buttressing the party hierarchy, including candidates and super PACs backed by GOP leaders, Dick has invested even more heavily in tearing it down, pouring millions into far-right primary challengers and insurgent groups. The split between the Uihleins — the most powerful donor couple in the GOP, if not all of politics — has come to represent the rift cleaving the Republican Party writ large, writes Alex Isenstadt. The couple’s combined political giving to federal candidates and causes over the last decade tops $230 million, plus tens of millions more to state-level groups, according to campaign finance records. Dick is the more active donor, but Liz has made millions of dollars’ worth of contributions in her own right. “Dick is super hard core, and his wife is not so much,” said former Rep. Joe Walsh (R-Ill.), a past Dick Uihlein ally who was elected in the 2010 conservative wave. Candidates from “the hard right and the tea party and blow it up and burn it down — those were the kind of politicians that Dick always supported. His wife was a bit more establishment. So, they would often disagree on certain candidates.” Read the full report from Alex Isenstadt. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Katherine Long @katherinealong Ari Hawkins @_AriHawkins   Follow us

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