🌊 An independent NOAA

Plus: Exxon's record billions | Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Open in app View in browser   Presented By bp   Axios Generate By Ben Geman and Andrew Freedman · Jan 31, 2023 👋 Hi readers! Today's newsletter has a Smart Brevity count of 1,231 words, 5 minutes. 🚨 Breaking: GM is making a $650 million equity investment in Lithium Americas for developing the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada. It's the "largest-ever investment by an automaker to produce battery raw materials," GM said. Go deeper 🎸This week in 1979, punk pioneers Stiff Little Fingers dropped their debut "Inflammable Material," which provides today's intro tune...     1 big thing: The push for an independent NOAA Hurricane Ian seen via a NOAA satellite, approaching the Florida coast on Sept. 28, 2022. Image: NOAA   A key House Republican is putting forward a plan to make NOAA an independent agency outside the Department of Commerce, Andrew and Axios Pro's Jael Holzman write. Why it matters: Removing the atmosphere and oceans agency from a Cabinet-level department could diminish its clout when it comes to securing funding and weighing in on policy decisions, former senior NOAA officials tell Axios. State of play: A bill being circulated within the House Science Committee by chairman Frank Lucas (Okla.) would authorize NOAA and its mission in law for the first time. Lucas plans to formally introduce it this spring. Committee Democrats, led by ranking member Zoe Lofgren (Calif.), are open to supporting the measure but want more details before deciding whether to back it, according to a Democratic committee aide. NOAA, which was created by an executive order in 1970, has always been an awkward fit in the Commerce Department. It was placed there because of a dispute then-president Richard Nixon had with his Interior secretary. Between the lines: A GOP Science Committee aide told Axios that Lucas' effort is about ensuring that NOAA's existence and mission is enshrined into law and reorganizing its structure to make its research operations more efficient. "Do we need all the existing line offices here? Do we need to consolidate? Do we need to combine?" the aide said. "We're not really looking to have some massive reorientation of the agency, but partly it is somewhat of an organizational issue." The bill would enter at least one polarizing area: It would require a study on moving NOAA's endangered species and marine protection responsibilities to the Interior Department, which helps regulate energy development. That is likely to encounter opposition on the Senate side, where Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), chair of the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, plans to introduce her own bill to enshrine NOAA into law, according to Democratic committee staff members. The Senate bill is unlikely to push for NOAA's independence. What they're saying: Two past agency leaders told Axios that making NOAA independent would likely help the agency, since the Commerce Department controls many of its policy, staffing and messaging decisions. "The principle of moving NOAA to be an independent agency, I support 1,000%," said Tim Gallaudet, one of NOAA's Trump-era administrators. "I cannot tell you the number of times where progress was impeded by having to go through the bureaucratic layer of the Department of Commerce." Read the whole story For more content like this, join the waitlist for Axios Pro Energy Policy, launching Feb. 13.     2. 😮 Exxon's record-setting year Exxon's earnings report this morning is a sign of the times in more ways than one, Ben writes. Driving the news: The oil and gas giant reported a record $55.7 billion full-year profit and $12.8 billion in Q4 net earnings. Why it matters: The haul shows how high energy commodity prices due to Russia's war in Ukraine have helped drive industry profits to new heights. The intrigue: Exxon's stock has been on a mostly upward march for over two years, but it initially dipped in pre-market trading. And that gets to another sign of the times: Bloomberg reports investors were "disappointed the company failed to announce plans to funnel more of that windfall into additional share repurchases." What they're saying: Exxon CEO Darren Woods said the 2022 profits weren't only a reflection of high prices. He said in a statement that while results "clearly benefited from a favorable market," they also stem from "counter-cyclical investments we made before and during the pandemic."     3. An energy inflection point in Europe Data: Ember; Note: "Other" includes bioenergy, other renewables and other fossil fuels; Chart: Madison Dong/Axios Visuals Combined power from wind and solar overtook natural gas in the EU for the first time last year, per analysis from the climate group Ember, Ben writes. Why it matters: It's an inflection point in the bloc's evolution toward lower-carbon sources. Wind and solar limited the extent of coal's resurgence as the most carbon-emitting fuel nonetheless got a bounce from high gas prices, tight supply and other forces. What's next: They see hydro generation rebounding from last year's drought, nuclear growing after plant outages in France, and more wind and solar momentum. "In 2023, Europe is set to witness a huge fall in fossil fuels — of coal power, yes, but especially gas power." The analysis sees power from fossil sources falling 20% in 2023 after ticking up 3% last year. Full report     A message from bp bp is one of America's leading energy investors     Our U.S. wind business exists to provide low carbon energy. This includes our joint venture with Equinor in the Northeast that has the potential to power more than 2 million homes. See how we are advocating for good policy to help us go further, faster.     4. Climate study using AI sees thresholds nearing Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios   A new study relying on machine learning methods finds the climate thresholds in the Paris Agreement may be exceeded earlier than anticipated, Andrew writes. Why it matters: The world is already suffering the impacts of 1.1°C (1.98°F) to 1.2°C (2.16°F) of warming to date, and passing 1.5°C or 2°C above preindustrial levels would dramatically increase the risks to society and ecosystems. The big picture: The study, published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, uses neural networks trained on climate model simulations to predict the time remaining until the Paris temperature targets will be reached. In line with previous studies, the researchers found the world has about a decade until the 1.5°C target is breached. Notably, it finds that even the lowest emissions scenario, with steep cuts to fossil fuel use, still has a significant chance of exceeding the 2°C target, potentially as soon as 2043. What they're saying: "Its always a bit tricky to know how much faith to put in machine learning methods like this given the absence of physical modeling of the systems involved," Zeke Hausfauther, climate research lead at payments company Stripe, who was not involved in the new study, told Axios via email. He said the research offers reason for caution about assuming an emissions pathway will hold warming below a certain level.     5. Catch up fast on policy: mining and cars Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   ⛏️ EPA this morning issued a final decision to block a big gold and copper mining project in Alaska's Bristol Bay watershed, citing risk to salmon fisheries and other ecological threats, Ben writes. Why it matters: It's a huge and potentially final barrier to decades-long, struggling efforts to build the Pebble Mine in the region or future proposals. Driving the news: EPA issued a finding under the Clean Water Act that sensitive waters in the region can't be used for dumping dredged or fill material. 🚗 New EPA vehicle emissions rules are needed to bolster and "lock in" long-term EV growth spurred by consumer subsidies in the climate law, new analysis argues. Driving the news: It sees the law leading to EVs potentially comprising 48% t0 61% of U.S. light-duty sales in 2030, and zero-emissions models (mostly electric) at 39% t0 48% of heavy-duty sales. Yes, but: The report — from progressive research firm Energy Innovation and the International Council on Clean Transportation — warns even this path isn't consistent with the Paris agreement. What they're saying: "The EPA has an opportunity to close this gap and be a backstop when [climate law] incentives sunset in 2033," the ICCT's Stephanie Searle said in a statement.     6. 🛢️Quoted "The world is back to riding 'Space Mountain' oil prices for the first time since the interwar period." — Oil analyst Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group That's a snippet of his prepared testimony before a House Energy and Commerce Committee hearing later today where he'll argue OPEC+ has limited power to control the market, Ben writes. "OPEC+ will be unable to prevent soaring oil prices later this decade as global demand outstrips supply outside OPEC+ because its members do not hold enough spare production capacity."     A message from bp bp is one of America's leading energy investors     The U.S. is home to bp's biggest workforce in the world and some big investments. Over the past 5 years, we've invested $10 billion in the Gulf of Mexico and plan to add $7 billion more from 2022-2025. See how we are advocating for good policy to help us go further, faster.   📬 Did a friend send you this newsletter? Welcome, please sign up. 🙏 Thanks to Nick Aspinwall and David Nather for edits to today's newsletter. See you tomorrow! Your personal policy analyst is here. Track energy policy formation at every step of the process with Axios Pro. Talk to our sales team today.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. 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