🧮 McCarthy's tortured calculus

Plus: Trump's "major announcement" | Thursday, December 15, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Walmart   Axios Sneak Peek By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Dec 15, 2022 Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,039 words ... 4 minutes. ⚡ Situational awareness: The Senate passed the annual national defense bill, 83-11 — raising pay for troops, bolstering support for Taiwan and Ukraine and rescinding the Pentagon's COVID-19 vaccine mandate.     1 big thing: McCarthy's tortured calculus Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images   House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy's (R-Calif.) painstaking efforts to quell a right-wing rebellion in his bid to become House speaker have pulled back the curtain on the broader legislative nightmare he'll need to navigate over the next two years. What's happening: On a number of concessions McCarthy has made or is considering making to his conservative critics, he risks touching off a revolt from other ideological camps — especially moderate and Biden-district Republicans, Axios' Andrew Solender and Alayna Treene report. The big picture: Failing to balance the wide range of equities within his conference, which is set to have a razor-thin majority, could result in embarrassing defeats for McCarthy in party-line votes — weakening him right out of the gate. After some frustrated centrist McCarthy allies floated removing detractors from committees this week, other members reminded them that "you don't get to 218 by kicking people off the island," one House Republican told Axios. "We need to get to 218 [votes] 20 times a week for the next 24 months, and ultimately this is a coalition that's going to have to figure out how to live with one another." Driving the news: Nine House Republicans defied GOP leadership by voting Thursday to fund the government for another week to give congressional negotiators breathing room to craft an annual budget bill. "I cast the vote that was consistent with my district," said Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), who represents a 5-point Biden seat. Zoom in: McCarthy has vowed to kick Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) off the Intelligence Committee and Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) off the Foreign Affairs Committee, but he may face opposition from his own side. "I'm not going to support it," Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) told Axios, noting Republicans opposed such moves from the Democratic majority. "I try to be consistent in my values … regardless of who's in charge." Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) told Axios, "I've never been a fan of that. Members are elected by their districts. ... To throw them off just seems inappropriate." What we're watching: The House GOP conference is about to be inundated with members in seats Biden won two years earlier by as many as 14 points. Some of them have bristled at conservatives' push to try to impeach Biden and his officials. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) told Axios the GOP's probes would have to yield new evidence for him to support impeaching Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, which McCarthy has inched toward amid right-wing pressure. The bottom line: "Once people think through the cold hard math ... getting to 218 votes is not going to be easy, on anything," said Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), the new chair of the Republican Main Street Caucus. "The guy is going to have to bring his A-game every single day." Share this story.     2. 👀 New abortion battleground Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios   Virginia Democrats are growing worried that an upcoming special election for state Senate could turn Virginia into an abortion battleground and boost Gov. Glenn Youngkin's conservative credentials ahead of a possible presidential bid, Axios' Alexi McCammond reports. What's happening: Democrats hold only a three-seat majority in the state Senate — one of which is occupied by an anti-abortion rights Democrat. The Jan. 10 special election for the seat left open after a GOP state senator's election to Congress could make Virginia's legislature the unlikely center of the political universe to begin the year. Battle lines: Democrat Aaron Rouse, who's running in the special election, told Axios his race "cannot be more important to making sure we don't roll back the hands of time for women." SBA Pro-Life America, an influential anti-abortion group, considers it a key race too. The group told Axios it will be heavily engaged in the election and with Youngkin to craft anti-abortion rights legislation that could pass the chamber. Republicans have already introduced multiple anti-abortion bills, and Youngkin has said he will "gleefully" sign such measures into law if given the chance. Reality check: Partisan control of the chambers won't change after the state special election, making it difficult for the GOP to get anti-abortion legislation on the floor. But Dems say it's a must-win seat to pad their margins and neutralize the outsized power of anti-abortion Democratic state Sen. Joe Morrissey. The intrigue: Morrissey himself is running in another special election — this one to fill the deep-blue congressional seat vacated by the death of Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Va.) last month. Keep reading.     3. 🦸 Trump's "major announcement" Via Truth Social With his 2024 campaign foundering, GOP support plummeting and criminal investigations intensifying, former President Trump's promise of a "MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT" yesterday was met with fervent speculation about a reset. Instead, Trump unveiled a new line of "digital trading cards" that he's selling for $99 a pop — "very much like a baseball card, but hopefully much more exciting," he posted on Truth Social. What they're saying: The announcement landed like a lead balloon, even among Trump's staunchest supporters. "I can't do this anymore," Steve Bannon said on his "War Room" podcast. "He's one of the greatest presidents in history, but I gotta tell you, whatever business partner, anybody on the comms team ... they oughta be fired — today." Below: President Biden had some fun with Trump's announcement on his personal Twitter account ... Via Twitter     A message from Walmart Walmart helps families save on the things they need most     Over 37 million Americans have diabetes. With Walmart, they can save up to 75% compared to the cash price of branded insulin. This adds up to more than $15 million saved across America since June 2021. Learn more about how Walmart helps families live better.     4. 🐘 The DeSantis appeal Via Twitter "What's funny about Trump voters and [Florida Gov. Ron] DeSantis is how much they frame their interest in DeSantis in relation to Trump," tweeted Sarah Longwell, an anti-Trump Republican who runs focus groups across the country. "He's 'Trump without the baggage' or 'Trump with a brain.' Trump is the original. DeSantis a variation."     5. 📸 Parting shot Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images President Biden announced at today's Africa summit that he would make his first presidential visit to the continent next year — confirming what we reported in Sneak Peek on Monday. "Some of you invited me to your countries. I said, 'Be careful what you wish for because I may show up,'" Biden quipped.     A message from Walmart Walmart helps save families up to 75% on insulin     Since June 2021, families across America have saved more than $15 million on insulin. Thanks to Walmart's low-cost private brand, shoppers can save up to 75% off the cash price of branded insulin. Learn more about how Walmart helps families live better.   📬 Thanks for reading this week. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Kathie Bozanich. Are you a fan of this email format? Your essential communications — to staff, clients and other stakeholders — can have the same style. Axios HQ, a powerful platform, will help you do it.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: